Rank the Top 5 QBs in this year's draft

[VanS]

There seems to be a consensus on who the top 5 QBs are in the draft this year.  Most people have the following 5 prospects rated in some order or another:  Sam Darnold (USC), Josh Allen (Wyoming), Josh Rosen (UCLA), Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma), and Lamar Jackson (Louisville).  All 5 players are projected to go in the 1st round, however, the order seems to differ for everyone.  How do ya'll stack the QBs this year?

Here's my order:

1. Josh Allen (Wyoming) - Top 5 grade......NFL comp: Dan Marino with mobility
   • Simply put Josh Allen is the most physically gifted QB prospect I've ever seen.  Whether you watch his tape in college or throwing at the combine his arm talent is undeniable.  No QB in this class has more long term potential.  The only reason most people don't have him rated as highly as I do is because of the college stats (in particular his completion percentage).  Most people like to use that as proof that he's an inaccurate passer.  I personally don't care about college stats.  I base my draft opinions purely on the tape.  And after watching Josh Allen play extensively, I have zero concern about his accuracy.  Josh Allen is actually a very accurate passer regardless of what the numbers say.  I watched his receivers drop countless passes that were on target.  I also watched his offensive line collapse play after play causing free rushers to get to Josh Allen before he could go through his progressions.  Now that's not to say he was without blame.  Josh also played a part in his low completion percentage but it was not because he lacks accuracy.  His decison-making needs to get better.  Allen is a lot like Brett Favre.  He's constantly looking for the big play downfield instead of the wide open check down.  Because of his insane arm talent, you can't always blame him.  He's able to make throws on the run 40-50 yards downfield into windows that are impossible for 99.9% of NFL QBs.  But when those insane pass attempts don't land on target, they can lead to ugly interceptions or incompletions.  From the little bit I've gathered regarding his intangibles they seem to be top notch as well.  This is a very motivated kid who has made himself into a top draft prospect through hard work and grit.  He's extremely competitive and dedicated to the game.  I've tried hard to find faults in his skill set but they are few and far in-between.  With the right coaching staff and talent around him, Josh Allen can be a SUPERSTAR in the NFL.  I think anyone who passes on this kid will regret it for year's to come.  He should be the slam dunk #1 pick in this year's draft.
2. Lamar Jackson (Louisville) - Top 10 grade.......NFL comp: taller Michael Vick
   • You can take almost everything I said about Josh Allen and apply it to Lamar Jackson as well.  Josh Allen might be the best long-term QB prospect in this year's draft, but Lamar Jackson is the QB who will have the biggest impact early on.  The NFL thought defending Deshaun Watson was hard last year, wait till they a load of this kid next year.  He's something the NFL hasn't seen since Michael Vick was in his prime.  Lamar Jackson will cause mayhem for NFL defenses next year because of his OTHER-WORLDLY athleticism.  In my opinion he's the only QB in this year's draft that has the ability to carry an NFL team on his back as a rookie.  His athleticism and play-making ability are that special.  Now onto the elephant in the room.  His accuracy.  Once again, like Josh Allen, I believe Lamar Jackson's accuracy issues have been overblown.  Now I'm not here to suggest he's as good a pure passer as the other top QBs in this year's draft.   If he was, he would be the slam dunk #1 overall pick given his unique athleticism.  He definitely has mechanical issues he needs to fix.  In particular, his base and footwork need to be refined.  Lamar only uses torque from his arm to throw the ball downfield rather than involving the rest of his body.  These mechanical issues are a major reason why some of his passes were so badly off target last year.  However, this is not a kid without touch and good passing instincts.  I've seen him throw some of the best downfield passes in this class outside of Josh Allen.  Through he can be a bit streaky, Lamar Jackson can throw the ball with solid accuracy.  His arm strength is also top notch.  Second best in this class after Josh Allen.  I have zero questions about Lamar's ability to throw the ball from the pocket long term.  He's a very hard-working and motivated young man.  With the right coaching staff that can develop him and use his entire skill set effectively, there is no doubt in my mind that Lamar Jackson will be a SUPERSTAR in this league.  Don't be surprised if he's the Rookie of the Year next season.  He can be that good early on.
3. Sam Darnold (USC) - Top 10 grade.......NFL comp: smaller Carson Wentz
   • Sam Darnold was my #1 QB for most of the season.  However, as I studied Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson more in depth, I've decided to move them ahead of Sam Darnold.  Now I'm still high on Sam and think he can be a great franchise QB.  I just bumped Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson ahead of him because they have higher ceilings given their superior physical gifts.  They are both more athletic than Sam and have better arms as well.  The intangibles among all three are very comprable.  With that said, Sam Darnold still has enough arm talent and athleticism to be a Carson Wentz type QB in the NFL.  With the right players around him and coaching staff he too can be a SUPERSTAR.  He just doesn't have the physical skill set Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson have.  Those guys are unique talents.
4. Josh Rosen (UCLA) - mid 1st round grade......NFL comp: Eli Manning with less durability
   • Josh Rosen is probably the QB in this class I feel the most comfortable about.  I know his ceiling and floor pretty well.  Unlike the 3 QBs I have rated ahead of him, Josh Rosen lacks the athleticism and mobility to be an elite upper tier QB in the NFL like Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers.  That's his ceiling.  Josh Rosen will always need a solid offensive line and good skill position players to be an effective QB in the NFL.  I compare him more to QBs like Eli Manning and Matt Ryan.  He's an extremely polished and capable pocket passer that behind a good offensive line and talented skill position players can lead a team to contention.  However, you put him behind a weak offensive line and mediocre skill position players and he'll be a turnover machine that gets hurts constantly.  That's his floor.  Josh Rosen lacks the ability to carry a team on his back but he does have the ability to be a very effective QB with the right talent around him.  I would feel comfortable with Josh Rosen being my starting QB.  People just need to be realistic about his limitations. 
5. Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) - 2nd round grade......NFL comp: Case Keenum with better arm strength
   • And finally we get to Baker Mayfield. This is the guy I have the most questions about and have had the hardest time trying to figure out.  On the one hand, you hear his story about all that he's overcome and how much swagger and confidence he has and its hard to go against him.  But then on the other hand, you see that he's an undersized QB with mediocre athleticism that has played in an air raid offense his entire career with no NFL concepts built into it.  He's been throwing to wide open receivers his entire career that were either schemed open or because he plays at Oklahoma (the most talented team in the Big 12) he almost always has the best athletes on the field playing with him.  I've seen nothing from his film that shows me an NFL skill set.   All I see is a undersized QB who lines up nearly 10 yards behind his mammoth offensive line every play who almost always has loads of time to go through his progressions and wait for his superior athletes to get open.  With that said, he does have some nice arm talent and has made many great passes in his college career.  However, the few times I've seen him face defenses that actually put pressure on him because they have the athletes to match up with his athletes, he's struggled.  The second half against Georgia being the most glaring example.  Georgia's defensive line made him look small during that second half forcing him into many bad throws.  In addition to the questions on the field, I have just as many questions off the field.  In particular about his personality.  From what I've seen, Baker Mayfield seems to be the type of guy that enjoys the limelight and celebrity of being a star QB. He's into himself and enjoys the perks of celebrity.  QBs like that don't typically have great success in the NFL.  Its usually the nerd QB (i.e. Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson) that is all football all the time is the one that enjoys the most success on the field.  Like Johnny Manziel its possible that the allure of celebrity leads Baker Mayfield to not work as hard in the film room as he needs to in order to become a successful QB in the NFL given his subpar measureables.  Because of these reasons I would avoid drafting Baker Mayfield in the 1st round.

 

[goldfishwars]

1 hour ago, VanS said:

  Josh Allen is actually a very accurate passer regardless of what the numbers say. 

There are times when I really can't tell if you're running a troll account or not. 

[VanS]

2 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

There are times when I really can't tell if you're running a troll account or not. 

Well this troll account said at this time last year that Alvin Kamara was the top RB in the 2017 NFL Draft ahead of Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey.

How did that turn out?

[goldfishwars]

1 hour ago, VanS said:

Well this troll account said at this time last year that Alvin Kamara was the top RB in the 2017 NFL Draft ahead of Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey.

How did that turn out?

So far, better than your Josh Dobbs predictions.

[Broncofan]

Allen’s physical talent is the best in the group.   Generational arm strength.  But his similarity to Dan Marino ends at being right handed and male.  And maybe Sean Young hates him.  

If someone said Brett Favre I could see that.  Dan Marino?  Ummmmm no.   

[CWood21]

3 hours ago, VanS said:

Well this troll account said at this time last year that Alvin Kamara was the top RB in the 2017 NFL Draft ahead of Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey.

How did that turn out?

How about Josh Dobbs or one of your million other terrible takes?  You throw enough darts at a dartboard, one of them is bound to hit.  If you're going to bang your chest about one of your predictions, you better be willing to admit you were wrong about others.

[Duke5217]

6 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

So far, better than your Josh Dobbs predictions.

A broken watch is right twice a day. 

[Iamcanadian]

10 hours ago, VanS said:

There seems to be a consensus on who the top 5 QBs are in the draft this year.  Most people have the following 5 prospects rated in some order or another:  Sam Darnold (USC), Josh Allen (Wyoming), Josh Rosen (UCLA), Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma), and Lamar Jackson (Louisville).  All 5 players are projected to go in the 1st round, however, the order seems to differ for everyone.  How do ya'll stack the QBs this year?

Here's my order:

1. Josh Allen (Wyoming) - Top 5 grade......NFL comp: Dan Marino with mobility
   • Simply put Josh Allen is the most physically gifted QB prospect I've ever seen.  Whether you watch his tape in college or throwing at the combine his arm talent is undeniable.  No QB in this class has more long term potential.  The only reason most people don't have him rated as highly as I do is because of the college stats (in particular his completion percentage).  Most people like to use that as proof that he's an inaccurate passer.  I personally don't care about college stats.  I base my draft opinions purely on the tape.  And after watching Josh Allen play extensively, I have zero concern about his accuracy.  Josh Allen is actually a very accurate passer regardless of what the numbers say.  I watched his receivers drop countless passes that were on target.  I also watched his offensive line collapse play after play causing free rushers to get to Josh Allen before he could go through his progressions.  Now that's not to say he was without blame.  Josh also played a part in his low completion percentage but it was not because he lacks accuracy.  His decison-making needs to get better.  Allen is a lot like Brett Favre.  He's constantly looking for the big play downfield instead of the wide open check down.  Because of his insane arm talent, you can't always blame him.  He's able to make throws on the run 40-50 yards downfield into windows that are impossible for 99.9% of NFL QBs.  But when those insane pass attempts don't land on target, they can lead to ugly interceptions or incompletions.  From the little bit I've gathered regarding his intangibles they seem to be top notch as well.  This is a very motivated kid who has made himself into a top draft prospect through hard work and grit.  He's extremely competitive and dedicated to the game.  I've tried hard to find faults in his skill set but they are few and far in-between.  With the right coaching staff and talent around him, Josh Allen can be a SUPERSTAR in the NFL.  I think anyone who passes on this kid will regret it for year's to come.  He should be the slam dunk #1 pick in this year's draft.

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I like Allen a lot and agree he has a shot to be quite good  IMO and could turn out to indeed be the best QB from this draft, although I will remind you that about 5 QB's went before Marino in his draft year! No doubt, some of his accuracy problems stem from the lack of talent at WR on his college team. Hard to complete passes when your receivers are always covered. That being said, his decision making seems a bit slow which also could account for those accuracy issues!

I think he goes no worse than #2 in the draft and could still be in the picture for #1, but for me, he is #2!!!!

 

1. Lamar Jackson (Louisville) - Top 10 grade.......NFL comp: taller Michael Vick
   • You can take almost everything I said about Josh Allen and apply it to Lamar Jackson as well.  Josh Allen might be the best long-term QB prospect in this year's draft, but Lamar Jackson is the QB who will have the biggest impact early on.  The NFL thought defending Deshaun Watson was hard last year, wait till they a load of this kid next year.  He's something the NFL hasn't seen since Michael Vick was in his prime.  Lamar Jackson will cause mayhem for NFL defenses next year because of his OTHER-WORLDLY athleticism.  In my opinion he's the only QB in this year's draft that has the ability to carry an NFL team on his back as a rookie.  His athleticism and play-making ability are that special.  Now onto the elephant in the room.  His accuracy.  Once again, like Josh Allen, I believe Lamar Jackson's accuracy issues have been overblown.  Now I'm not here to suggest he's as good a pure passer as the other top QBs in this year's draft.   If he was, he would be the slam dunk #1 overall pick given his unique athleticism.  He definitely has mechanical issues he needs to fix.  In particular, his base and footwork need to be refined.  Lamar only uses torque from his arm to throw the ball downfield rather than involving the rest of his body.  These mechanical issues are a major reason why some of his passes were so badly off target last year.  However, this is not a kid without touch and good passing instincts.  I've seen him throw some of the best downfield passes in this class outside of Josh Allen.  Through he can be a bit streaky, Lamar Jackson can throw the ball with solid accuracy.  His arm strength is also top notch.  Second best in this class after Josh Allen.  I have zero questions about Lamar's ability to throw the ball from the pocket long term.  He's a very hard-working and motivated young man.  With the right coaching staff that can develop him and use his entire skill set effectively, there is no doubt in my mind that Lamar Jackson will be a SUPERSTAR in this league.  Don't be surprised if he's the Rookie of the Year next season.  He can be that good early on.

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For me, if Jackson has Vick's escapability, I think he will be a great pro, because he is certainly more accurate than Vick ever was. However, if he is just another fast guy who cannot match Vick's escapability, then his road ahead will not be kind. Because I am not sure just who he is, I cannot rate him this high, but you are right, if he is the second coming of Vick, teams wilkl be crying in their milk for having passsed on him.

1. Sam Darnold (USC) - Top 10 grade.......NFL comp: smaller Carson Wentz
   • Sam Darnold was my #1 QB for most of the season.  However, as I studied Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson more in depth, I've decided to move them ahead of Sam Darnold.  Now I'm still high on Sam and think he can be a great franchise QB.  I just bumped Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson ahead of him because they have higher ceilings given their superior physical gifts.  They are both more athletic than Sam and have better arms as well.  The intangibles among all three are very comprable.  With that said, Sam Darnold still has enough arm talent and athleticism to be a Carson Wentz type QB in the NFL.  With the right players around him and coaching staff he too can be a SUPERSTAR.  He just doesn't have the physical skill set Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson have.  Those guys are unique talents.

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Darnold IMO, will be the #1 pick in the draft based on ability and a lack of question marks that both Allen and Jackson still have to answer. He has everything you want in a franchise QB and there are simply less flags!!!

1. Josh Rosen (UCLA) - mid 1st round grade......NFL comp: Eli Manning with less durability
   • Josh Rosen is probably the QB in this class I feel the most comfortable about.  I know his ceiling and floor pretty well.  Unlike the 3 QBs I have rated ahead of him, Josh Rosen lacks the athleticism and mobility to be an elite upper tier QB in the NFL like Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers.  That's his ceiling.  Josh Rosen will always need a solid offensive line and good skill position players to be an effective QB in the NFL.  I compare him more to QBs like Eli Manning and Matt Ryan.  He's an extremely polished and capable pocket passer that behind a good offensive line and talented skill position players can lead a team to contention.  However, you put him behind a weak offensive line and mediocre skill position players and he'll be a turnover machine that gets hurts constantly.  That's his floor.  Josh Rosen lacks the ability to carry a team on his back but he does have the ability to be a very effective QB with the right talent around him.  I would feel comfortable with Josh Rosen being my starting QB.  People just need to be realistic about his limitations.

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I tend to agree on Rosen although I believe a talented OL is all he really needs. He reminds me of Bradford and we all know the injury history of that QB and Rosen's career could be quite similar. I do not believe he needs great skill players any more than every other QB needs somebody to throw to. He is extremely talent thrower and just way too immobile for my liking!!!

1. •  
2. Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) - 2nd round grade......NFL comp: Case Keenum with better arm strength
   • And finally we get to Baker Mayfield. This is the guy I have the most questions about and have had the hardest time trying to figure out.  On the one hand, you hear his story about all that he's overcome and how much swagger and confidence he has and its hard to go against him.  But then on the other hand, you see that he's an undersized QB with mediocre athleticism that has played in an air raid offense his entire career with no NFL concepts built into it.  He's been throwing to wide open receivers his entire career that were either schemed open or because he plays at Oklahoma (the most talented team in the Big 12) he almost always has the best athletes on the field playing with him.  I've seen nothing from his film that shows me an NFL skill set.   All I see is a undersized QB who lines up nearly 10 yards behind his mammoth offensive line every play who almost always has loads of time to go through his progressions and wait for his superior athletes to get open.  With that said, he does have some nice arm talent and has made many great passes in his college career.  However, the few times I've seen him face defenses that actually put pressure on him because they have the athletes to match up with his athletes, he's struggled.  The second half against Georgia being the most glaring example.  Georgia's defensive line made him look small during that second half forcing him into many bad throws.  In addition to the questions on the field, I have just as many questions off the field.  In particular about his personality.  From what I've seen, Baker Mayfield seems to be the type of guy that enjoys the limelight and celebrity of being a star QB. He's into himself and enjoys the perks of celebrity.  QBs like that don't typically have great success in the NFL.  Its usually the nerd QB (i.e. Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson) that is all football all the time is the one that enjoys the most success on the field.  Like Johnny Manziel its possible that the allure of celebrity leads Baker Mayfield to not work as hard in the film room as he needs to in order to become a successful QB in the NFL given his subpar measureables.  Because of these reasons I would avoid drafting Baker Mayfield in the 1st round.

I agree with a lot of this except, he did put up an awful lot of points on a great Georgia team that had nothing left when they played Alabama. A game practically everybody here thought would be a cakewalk for Georgia!!! 

I never hold it against a prospect because he produced while having a good team around him. What was he supposed to do. If you use that argument, half the 1st rounders in every draft would be eliminated??? It is not a sound argument!!!

For me, Mayfield reminds me of Drew Brees, he has Brees rah, rah attitude and is an absolutely tremendous leader of men. Yes, there appears to be a little immaturity, but a lot of it is actually liked by GM's as a sign of his competitiveness!!! Brees isn't a nerd, so watch out for generalities!

Yes, he is short for a NFL QB and that is a concern, but he has arm talent and a willingness to work hard at his chosen profession and I rate his intangibles as first class. I always look to see if a QB has no fear in the pocket and can put the last play completely behind him and Mayfield has that in aces and I believe he will succeed at the next level. It may take him longer to adjust coming from Oklahoma's system, but his has enough skill and intangibles to do quite well IMO!!!

 

 

[VanS]

7 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

So far, better than your Josh Dobbs predictions.

I never claimed to right about everything.  And I definitely don't mind it if you want to argue with me about my rankings.  Just don't question my sincerity.  I say what I think.  PERIOD.  I'm not here trying to say things I don't believe in for attention.  I simply look at things purely from my perspective.   

 

[VanS]

5 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Allen’s physical talent is the best in the group.   Generational arm strength.  But his similarity to Dan Marino ends at being right handed and male.  And maybe Sean Young hates him.  

If someone said Brett Favre I could see that.  Dan Marino?  Ummmmm no.   

Don't thank me for that comp.  Thank Louis Riddick (ESPN).

 

[Broncofan]

2 minutes ago, VanS said:

Don't thank me for that comp.  Thank Louis Riddick (ESPN).

 

You still have the option to judge the comp on its merits and post it or not.   It’s an awful comp.  

[VanS]

5 hours ago, CWood21 said:

How about Josh Dobbs or one of your million other terrible takes?  You throw enough darts at a dartboard, one of them is bound to hit.  If you're going to bang your chest about one of your predictions, you better be willing to admit you were wrong about others.

I didn't know NFL players were only allowed to play one season?  QB is notorious for being the most difficult position to transition into in the NFL while RB is well known as the easiest position to transition into in the NFL.  Now if the reverse had happened.  If Dobbs had become a star in year 1 while Kamara was buried in the depth chart, this criticism would be more valid.  But as of right now we have no idea what any of the QBs from the 2017 class will ultimately turn out to be.  After their rookies years who knew Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady would be what they turned out to be?  Or better yet after their rookie years who thought Vince Young and RG3 would be what they turned out to be? 

Rookie seasons are not an absolute predictor of future success for QBs.

 

 

[VanS]

2 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

You still have the option to judge the comp on its merits and post it or not.   It’s an awful comp.  

I thought it was valid.  I saw the same things Louis Riddick saw.

And FTR this isn't the first time I've agreed with Louis Riddick on one of his far out there comps.  Last year he said Corey Davis reminded him of Jerry Rice coming out of college in terms of his route running and movement.  I also saw the same thing.

I don't always agree with how Louis Riddick ranks his players but I do find myself agreeing with him a lot when it comes to similarities between players.

[Soko]

23 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

You still have the option to judge the comp on its merits and post it or not.   It’s an awful comp.  

You won’t get him to budge on that lol. 

Allen’s arm talent is enough to validate a comparison to one of the GOATs, despite having no other similarities whatsoever.

[CWood21]

29 minutes ago, VanS said:

I didn't know NFL players were only allowed to play one season?  QB is notorious for being the most difficult position to transition into in the NFL while RB is well known as the easiest position to transition into in the NFL.  Now if the reverse had happened.  If Dobbs had become a star in year 1 while Kamara was buried in the depth chart, this criticism would be more valid.  But as of right now we have no idea what any of the QBs from the 2017 class will ultimately turn out to be.  After their rookies years who knew Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady would be what they turned out to be?  Or better yet after their rookie years who thought Vince Young and RG3 would be what they turned out to be? 

Rookie seasons are not an absolute predictor of future success for QBs.

Your comp for Jarrad Davis was Patrick Willis, and Davis was most certainly not Patrick Willis.  You completely left Marshon Lattimore out of your top 5 CB prospects, and he was arguably the best rookie last year.  Hell, even Tre'Davious White wasn't in there.  I mean, I'm all for different takes, but don't go pounding your chest about one right prediction when you make a dozen awful ones.