Rank the Top 5 QBs in this year's draft

[Rodjahs12]

I really can’t understand why so many people are hostile toward Van. Yeah he makes some off the wall hot takes but he’s a great contributor in this forum and someone who actually puts some effort behind his analysis. This place would be incredibly boring if we all agreed on everything and I enjoy reading his input even when I strongly disagree with whatever’s he’s saying.

 

good rankings by the way. Have Allen at 1 myself. 

[VanS]

6 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Your comp for Jarrad Davis was Patrick Willis, and Davis was most certainly not Patrick Willis.  You completely left Marshon Lattimore out of your top 5 CB prospects, and he was arguably the best rookie last year.  Hell, even Tre'Davious White wasn't in there.  I mean, I'm all for different takes, but don't go pounding your chest about one right prediction when you make a dozen awful ones.

Yeah.  That was an eff up on my part.  He's more Takeo Spikes than Patrick Willis.  Still the #1 MLB from that draft and a solid 1st round pick.  I left Marshon Lattimore off because I questioned his ability to stay healthy with those chronic hamstring issues.  In terms of talent, I still liked Cam Sutton and Jourdan Lewis ahead of him.  One year in, that looks to be a mistake as well.  We'll see if Marshon continues to stay healthy.

I wasn't solid on Tre'Davious White before the draft.  Still not sold on him.  He had a solid 1st year but he's just not my type of CB.  We'll see what he does moving forward.

[VanS]

6 hours ago, Yin-Yang said:

You won’t get him to budge on that lol. 

Allen’s arm talent is enough to validate a comparison to one of the GOATs, despite having no other similarities whatsoever.

Considering arm talent is the #1 most relevant attribute for a QB in the NFL, I would consider that to be a pretty good reason to compare players.

Remember, Marino also had a lot of questions coming into the NFL.  As a senior at Pitt, he threw more INTs than TDs.  So like Josh Allen, people were doubtful about his pro potential because of his unimpressive college production.  What Marino did have going for him is what Josh Allen has also going for him....a generational arm. 

[Forge]

55 minutes ago, VanS said:

Yeah.  That was an eff up on my part.  He's more Takeo Spikes than Patrick Willis.  Still the #1 MLB from that draft and a solid 1st round pick.  I left Marshon Lattimore off because I questioned his ability to stay healthy with those chronic hamstring issues.  In terms of talent, I still liked Cam Sutton and Jourdan Lewis ahead of him.  One year in, that looks to be a mistake as well.  We'll see if Marshon continues to stay healthy.

I wasn't solid on Tre'Davious White before the draft.  Still not sold on him.  He had a solid 1st year but he's just not my type of CB.  We'll see what he does moving forward.

If you're talking on the field only, he wasn't nearly as good as Foster

[Don Roshi]

1 hour ago, VanS said:

Considering arm talent is the #1 most relevant attribute for a QB in the NFL, I would consider that to be a pretty good reason to compare players.

No it's not. Both intelligence and accuracy are far more important than being able to throw the ball 80 yards.

[Soko]

3 hours ago, VanS said:

Considering arm talent is the #1 most relevant attribute for a QB in the NFL, I would consider that to be a pretty good reason to compare players.

Uh, no it isn’t. 

3 hours ago, VanS said:

Remember, Marino also had a lot of questions coming into the NFL.  As a senior at Pitt, he threw more INTs than TDs.  So like Josh Allen, people were doubtful about his pro potential because of his unimpressive college production.

Lots of guys had questions coming out of college. Marino struggling as a senior in his TD:INT ratio doesn’t mean he and Allen have anything in common other than arm (Marino’s release and touch is much, much better). 

3 hours ago, VanS said:

  What Marino did have going for him is what Josh Allen has also going for him....a generational arm. 

Josh Allen’s arm is as much Mahomes, or Carr, or Stafford. 

[VanS]

3 hours ago, Don Roshi said:

No it's not. Both intelligence and accuracy are far more important than being able to throw the ball 80 yards.

 

1 hour ago, Yin-Yang said:

Uh, no it isn’t. 

Lots of guys had questions coming out of college. Marino struggling as a senior in his TD:INT ratio doesn’t mean he and Allen have anything in common other than arm (Marino’s release and touch is much, much better). 

Josh Allen’s arm is as much Mahomes, or Carr, or Stafford. 

Chris Simms (former NFL QB) would disagree with that.  He faced criticism from some of his listeners on the "Simms and Lefkoe podcast" saying he pays too much attention to arm strength when evaluating QBs.  He responded that arm strength is a prerequisite for being a successful QB.  Obviously you don't need to be able to throw it as hard as Dan Marino to be successful but it is the most important attribute scouts look at when judging whether a guy even has the ability to play in the NFL let alone succeed. 

[goldfishwars]

1 hour ago, VanS said:

 

Chris Simms (former NFL QB) would disagree with that.  He faced criticism from some of his listeners on the "Simms and Lefkoe podcast" saying he pays too much attention to arm strength when evaluating QBs.  He responded that arm strength is a prerequisite for being a successful QB.  Obviously you don't need to be able to throw it as hard as Dan Marino to be successful but it is the most important attribute scouts look at when judging whether a guy even has the ability to play in the NFL let alone succeed. 

Cool, so if he’s right there should be a close correlation between the league’s best QBs and those who throw the hardest.

[Broncofan]

19 hours ago, VanS said:

I thought it was valid.  I saw the same things Louis Riddick saw.

And FTR this isn't the first time I've agreed with Louis Riddick on one of his far out there comps.  Last year he said Corey Davis reminded him of Jerry Rice coming out of college in terms of his route running and movement.  I also saw the same thing.

I don't always agree with how Louis Riddick ranks his players but I do find myself agreeing with him a lot when it comes to similarities between players.

It's just an awful comp.

Marino's reason for falling had nothing to do with his QB skills - his anticipation, pocket awareness and ball placement/accuracy were seen as elite.   He got dinged for 2 reasons - his senior season, all those INT's led to the mistaken belief he was a partyer, and didn't put any time into the game, and was using drugs.   The second related knock was that he was arrogant, and thought to be uncoachable.   Meanwhile, Allen is being knocked for having very poor accuracy, inconsisent ball placement, late anticipation, with average pocket awareness.   They only share great arm strength.    You couldn't find two more separate QB skill sets at a similar stage. 

I remember the '83 draft watching draft coverage both before, during and after, being a Broncos fan.  Elway was story #1 - Marino's fall was #2.    And the scouting reports were all the same - he was a top 5 overall, if not sooner, 2nd QB behind Elway pre-'82 college season for all those reasons.  Then the '82 season happened, and it was attributed to all his off-the-field Q's (which were all proven to be bogus, even a negative drug test for pot/cocaine failed to convince the teams of the narrative).  And unlike 1 guy, this was the constant cited when ppl were asked to explain the drop:

http://www.profootballhof.com/news/hall-recall-dan-marino/

http://old.post-gazette.com/sports/pitt/20030803marino0803p4.asp

https://www.nytimes.com/1984/11/04/sports/marino-so-good-so-soon.html

Again, if people want to comp Favre, they've got an argument.  If people want to put Allen as top guy because his ceiling is the best, I get it (I would always factor in bust potential, and the fact the skills he needs work on have the greatest difficulty to fix now, but I get it).   But Marino's comp is a terrible one.   For a guy that wants to defy the CW, relying on "they said this too" is a rather weak argument.   It's tough to be have a very dissenting opinion, I get it.  But the reasoning should bear up to closer scrutiny.  

[Soko]

3 hours ago, VanS said:

 

Chris Simms (former NFL QB) would disagree with that.  He faced criticism from some of his listeners on the "Simms and Lefkoe podcast" saying he pays too much attention to arm strength when evaluating QBs.  He responded that arm strength is a prerequisite for being a successful QB.  Obviously you don't need to be able to throw it as hard as Dan Marino to be successful but it is the most important attribute scouts look at when judging whether a guy even has the ability to play in the NFL let alone succeed. 

Chris Simms is a hack. 

“Marino and Allen are nothing alike...”

“Louis Riddick agrees with me.”

”Arm strength isn’t the most important factor...”

”Chris Simms agrees with me.”

Beginning to see a trend here. Paxton Lynch, Brock Osweiler, Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Mallet, Logan Thomas, Jamarcus Russell, how many cases do you need? There’s much more of a trend of smart, good decision makers having success than there are rocket armed QBs having success.

 Incoming Skip Bayless reference?

[Mox]

My personal 5 is

1. Sam Darnold

2. Josh Rosen

3. Baker Mayfield

4. Lamar Jackson

5. Mason Rudolph

 

But I'm not any good at scouting QB's so who cares about my opinion anyway.

[BleedTheClock]

On 3/25/2018 at 6:57 AM, VanS said:

Well this troll account said at this time last year that Alvin Kamara was the top RB in the 2017 NFL Draft ahead of Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey.

How did that turn out?

You were once right about something? Well then everything else that you post must be taken as gospel!    These kinds of comments are why nobody takes you seriously. If you throw enough crap at the wall, some of it is bound to stick.

 

I like Josh Allen as well, but I find the Dan Marino but better comparison to be ridiculously overstating his ability.

[BleedTheClock]

The throws that impress me the most with Josh Allen have nothing to do with how far the ball goes. It's with how much zip is behind the throws. He is able to fit the ball into the most ridiculously tight windows because of that arm strength. If a defender gets boxed out from a WR, it's nearly impossible for them to get to the ball because it comes out so hard and fast (that's what she said).

The most impressive throw I saw him make was against Iowa. It was like a 6 yard gain, but he was immediately harassed by a DL (as is tradition), escaped the sack, rolled to his right keeping his eyes down the field the entire time, and then looked to his RB stick route checkdown late. The route was covered...the LB'er was right in the hip of the RB and Allen had already rolled out far right while the stick was in the middle/left portion of the field. On the run, he throws a freaking missile to the RB for the completion. The way the ball flies out of his hand is something I've never seen before. Combine this with his elite size, athleticism, and the intangibles (playing in a pro style scheme, looking off defenders, leadership qualities, eyes staying down the field on the run, etc...) and you've got yourself a possible superstar.

 

This doesn't mean he's going to be great, but I think people are giving him too much crap. People are too focused on his completion percentage and not focused enough on why it's lower than all of these other spread QB's. Allen is still my #4 QB in the class, but in a different year, I'd have no problems with him being the #1 guy. As a prospect, he's in the Potential Franchise QB category. I wouldn't blink taking him in the top 5. He's not the most accurate dude in the world and he is not without fault for that low completion percentage, but it's way overblown. He's not WILDLY inaccurate and throwing high floaters right to defenders. His misses tend to be safe and away from the defense for the most part.

[VanS]

7 hours ago, Broncofan said:

It's just an awful comp.

Marino's reason for falling had nothing to do with his QB skills - his anticipation, pocket awareness and ball placement/accuracy were seen as elite.   He got dinged for 2 reasons - his senior season, all those INT's led to the mistaken belief he was a partyer, and didn't put any time into the game, and was using drugs.   The second related knock was that he was arrogant, and thought to be uncoachable.   Meanwhile, Allen is being knocked for having very poor accuracy, inconsisent ball placement, late anticipation, with average pocket awareness.   They only share great arm strength.    You couldn't find two more separate QB skill sets at a similar stage. 

I remember the '83 draft watching draft coverage both before, during and after, being a Broncos fan.  Elway was story #1 - Marino's fall was #2.    And the scouting reports were all the same - he was a top 5 overall, if not sooner, 2nd QB behind Elway pre-'82 college season for all those reasons.  Then the '82 season happened, and it was attributed to all his off-the-field Q's (which were all proven to be bogus, even a negative drug test for pot/cocaine failed to convince the teams of the narrative).  And unlike 1 guy, this was the constant cited when ppl were asked to explain the drop:

http://www.profootballhof.com/news/hall-recall-dan-marino/

http://old.post-gazette.com/sports/pitt/20030803marino0803p4.asp

https://www.nytimes.com/1984/11/04/sports/marino-so-good-so-soon.html

Again, if people want to comp Favre, they've got an argument.  If people want to put Allen as top guy because his ceiling is the best, I get it (I would always factor in bust potential, and the fact the skills he needs work on have the greatest difficulty to fix now, but I get it).   But Marino's comp is a terrible one.   For a guy that wants to defy the CW, relying on "they said this too" is a rather weak argument.   It's tough to be have a very dissenting opinion, I get it.  But the reasoning should bear up to closer scrutiny.  

I'm only using Louis Riddick as support.  I actually went back and watched some Dan Marino clips and saw a player strikingly similar to Josh Allen.  Especially when you look at his younger highlights when he was at Pittsburgh.

With regard to the argument that this comp fails because Allen has "very poor accuracy, inconsistent ball placement, late anticipation, (and) average pocket awareness".  That is simply your opinion.  I've watched lots of tape on Josh Allen and would disagree point by point with those claims.  I find his accuracy to actually be very good.  I don't get where IN THE FILM you find "very poor accuracy".  Yes his completion percentage on the stat sheet is poor but when I watch his tape, I don't see any easy throws like screens and shovel passes that inflate a lot of these guys who play in spread system's completion percentage.  Most of Allen's throws are down the field and travel at least 10 yards.  Next, he's had significantly less talent around him than all the other top QBs in this draft (outside of Lamar Jackson).  That means he was typically facing the rush faster than the other QBs and his receivers were getting less separation thus forcing him to make high degree of difficulty throws.   That sort of thing also brings down your completion percentage.  And finally, Josh Allen does have a gunslinger mentality so there are times he will look off the open check down receiver to try and fit the ball into a tighter window down the field trying to make the big play.  This is a trait that can be easily corrected.

So you see, this is why I find the Dan Marino comparison valid.  I don't think any of the criticisms most people have regarding Allen being an inaccurate passer are valid.  If I thought he was just a big arm that coudn't throw with good accuracy, I wouldn't have him rated as my #1 QB in this draft.

[VanS]

9 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

Cool, so if he’s right there should be a close correlation between the league’s best QBs and those who throw the hardest.

You don't think Aaron Rodgers has arguably the strongest arms in the league?  And in my opinion he's also hands down the best QB in the NFL as well.  Or how about Russell Wilson?  In my opinion the second best QB in the NFL and one of the strongest arms as well.   Even Tom Brady at age 40 still has great arm strength. 

Peyton Manning is probably the last QB who was incredibly elite that had very little juice on his ball.  Nearly all the other top QBs have among the strongest arms in the league.