Rank the Top 5 QBs in this year's draft

[VanS]

7 hours ago, Yin-Yang said:

Chris Simms is a hack. 

“Marino and Allen are nothing alike...”

“Louis Riddick agrees with me.”

”Arm strength isn’t the most important factor...”

”Chris Simms agrees with me.”

Beginning to see a trend here. Paxton Lynch, Brock Osweiler, Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Mallet, Logan Thomas, Jamarcus Russell, how many cases do you need? There’s much more of a trend of smart, good decision makers having success than there are rocket armed QBs having success.

 Incoming Skip Bayless reference?

Other than Colin Kaepernick, I didn't like any of those guys.  I'm not saying a big arm is sufficient to being an elite QB, but it is necessary.  If you know simple logic you should be able to understand that point.

Guys like Drew Brees are total outliers and shouldn't be used to try and knock what is a pretty consistent theme.  Nearly all the top QBs in the NFL have big arms.  Rodgers, Russell, Brady, Newton, Stafford, etc.

[VanS]

1 hour ago, BleedTheClock said:

You were once right about something? Well then everything else that you post must be taken as gospel!    These kinds of comments are why nobody takes you seriously. If you throw enough crap at the wall, some of it is bound to stick.

I like Josh Allen as well, but I find the Dan Marino but better comparison to be ridiculously overstating his ability.

RB is typically the easiest position to transition to from college so the fact my bold take on who the #1 RB in the 2017 Draft was has been a hit so far makes sense.  Give the other positions more time.  After his rookie season, Antonio Brown didn't look like the top receiver from the 2010 draft.  8 years later he's arguably the best receiver in the NFL.

We're only one year in.  I expect my hit rate on the other positions to improve with time.  Especially at QB.

[Soko]

2 minutes ago, VanS said:

Other than Colin Kaepernick, I didn't like any of those guys.  I'm not saying a big arm is sufficient to being an elite QB, but it is necessary.  If you know simple logic you should be able to understand that point.

It isn’t, though. That’s the point. You need a good enough arm, but not one to the extent of Allen and certainly not Marino. 

2 minutes ago, VanS said:

Guys like Drew Brees are total outliers and shouldn't be used to try and knock what is a pretty consistent theme.  Nearly all the top QBs in the NFL have big arms.  Rodgers, Russell, Brady, Newton, Stafford, etc.

You realize what the word “necessary”, yeah? It can’t be “necessary” to have top tier arm strength to be elite if there are elite QBs without top tier arm strength - outliers or not (they’re not). 

Wilson, Brady, Peyton, Rivers, Big Ben, Matt Ryan, Goff, Wentz...these guys aren’t in the top tier of arm talent like Allen or Marino or Rodgers are.

Again, the top guys all have intelligence and good decision making as a part of their resume - the same can’t be said for cannon arms. Although we’re getting off topic here: Allen and Marino aren’t similar except for how easy both can flick the ball down the field.

[goldfishwars]

35 minutes ago, VanS said:

You don't think Aaron Rodgers has arguably the strongest arms in the league?  And in my opinion he's also hands down the best QB in the NFL as well.  Or how about Russell Wilson?  In my opinion the second best QB in the NFL and one of the strongest arms as well.   Even Tom Brady at age 40 still has great arm strength. 

Peyton Manning is probably the last QB who was incredibly elite that had very little juice on his ball.  Nearly all the other top QBs have among the strongest arms in the league.

I think you have to have enough arm for sure, but after you hit that threshold there are more important facets. 

[Iamcanadian]

Arm strength is pretty well the first check off when evaluating NFL potential in a QB. If you do not have at least the required arm strength, you are not likely to ever be a franchise QB!!!

Does it guarantee success, of course not, but you have to have a strong arm to even get consideration as a potential NFL starting QB. QB's who lack a strong arm, are candidates as career backups, but that is about it for them. 

Do you need a generational arm, absolutely not, but never underestimate arm strength, it is definitely the first box that must be checked off before going much further in assessing a QB's chances at the next level.

As for the Marino comparison, it really isn't that bad, both were big strong armed QB's coming out of college and each had red flags when they were or going to be drafted. Marino's red flags were serious enough, that around 5 QB's were drafted ahead of him in round 1, before he was picked near the end of round 1. Let's not whitewash the red flags he had, they were quite serious at the time.

Once a QB gets past arm strength, then intangibles take over in assessing their chances, followed by college production and mechanical problems.

Allen played on a team lacking any talent at WR, it is tough to have a high completion average when you WR's are always covered with little separation. Does he have accuracy issues, yes, but they are a bit overblown. He has already shown that some of his accuracy problems stem from mechanical problems, some of which are quite correctable with solid coaching.

IMO, even Cleveland has not made up their mind between Darnold and Allen and at worst, Allen will be the second QB chosen in the draft. Rosen and Mayfield have their red flags as well and  in both their cases, their red flags might just be more serious than Allen's and Allen's ceiling is off the charts compared to Rosen and Masyfield's. Can he reach his ceiling, only time will tell which is ditto for all 4 QB's in the conversation. After all, only around 20% of QB's drafted in the top 12 picks ever succeed, the other 80% flop!!! 

[Blazer026]

Far from an expert but,

Darnold

Rosen

Jackson

Allen

Mayfield

[DoleINGout]

1. Tom Brady

2. Brett Favre

3. Matt Ryan

4. Jimmy Garoppolo

5. Dan Marino

[VanS]

1 hour ago, Yin-Yang said:

It isn’t, though. That’s the point. You need a good enough arm, but not one to the extent of Allen and certainly not Marino. 

You realize what the word “necessary”, yeah? It can’t be “necessary” to have top tier arm strength to be elite if there are elite QBs without top tier arm strength - outliers or not (they’re not). 

Wilson, Brady, Peyton, Rivers, Big Ben, Matt Ryan, Goff, Wentz...these guys aren’t in the top tier of arm talent like Allen or Marino or Rodgers are.

Again, the top guys all have intelligence and good decision making as a part of their resume - the same can’t be said for cannon arms. Although we’re getting off topic here: Allen and Marino aren’t similar except for how easy both can flick the ball down the field.

You mixed in a lot of names there.  Some of those guys aren't elite (i.e. Goff, Rivers, Ryan).  So I'm confused why you even brought them up.  Of the elite guys (Brady, Wilson, Rodgers, etc.) in the last 10 years, I would say only Peyton Manning and Drew Brees had subpar arms.  Obviously Allen and Marino are outliers on the extremely strong end of the arm strength spectrum.  But I would rate Russell Wilson as having a big arm.  His arm strength is definitely in the elite category.  Same with Tom Brady who has a very strong arm that can make every throw. 

Once again, I'm not saying you need to have an arm like Josh Allen to be successful.  But a strong arm is necessary when 90+% of the top QBs in the NFL has great arm strength.  Guys like Peyton Manning and Drew Brees are outliers.  They are not the norm.

[VanS]

1 hour ago, goldfishwars said:

I think you have to have enough arm for sure, but after you hit that threshold there are more important facets. 

I definitely agree with that.

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, VanS said:

You don't think Aaron Rodgers has arguably the strongest arms in the league?  And in my opinion he's also hands down the best QB in the NFL as well.  Or how about Russell Wilson?  In my opinion the second best QB in the NFL and one of the strongest arms as well.   Even Tom Brady at age 40 still has great arm strength. 

Peyton Manning is probably the last QB who was incredibly elite that had very little juice on his ball.  Nearly all the other top QBs have among the strongest arms in the league.

You believe the fact that Rodgers is elite is because he throws hard?  Hell no.

[Dr.O]

Just my opinion

 

Rosen

Mayfield

Darnold

Jackson

Lauletta 

[AlNFL19]

To understand my rankings, this is the grading scale I work by:

9.0-10: Perennial All-Pro

8.0-8.99: All-Pro

7.5-7.99: Potential All-Pro

7.25-7.49: Good NFL Starter

7.0-7.24: Potentially good NFL starter

6.5-6.99: Good chance to become good starter

6.0-6.49: Could become late starter

5.5-5.99: Likely backup

5.0-5.49: Developmental player

-5.0: Back End of the Roster

 

1. Sam Darnold, USC - 7.33 - Definitely not my favorite QB in this class, but the best right now. He has the accuracy and the vision to be a solid starter.

2. Josh Rosen, UCLA - 7.0 - Again, not my favorite passer, but he's undeniably good. He's got good touch but won't work in all systems or locker rooms.

3. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma - 6.88 - One of my favorite QBs in the draft - I think Mayfield has a solid combination of accuracy and athleticism.

T-4. Josh Allen, Wyoming - 6.63 - If he's expected to start year one, I think he's in for a Goff-like first campaign. If not, he should be a good NFL quarterback.

T-4. Lamar Jackson, Louisville - 6.63 - The next two are my two favorites in the class, and are polar opposites. Jackson is the greatest athlete outside of Randall Cunningham to ever come into the NFL at QB and has enough accuracy to be a good QB. If he goes to the Saints like so many people have mocked him to, he and Kamara will be the stuff of nightmares for defensive coordinators. I'd love Jackson in New England because of his familiarity with an Erdhardt-Perkins offense and his arm strength, because I think he'd be good enough accuracy-wise to run a short-pass offense.

T-4. Luke Falk, Washington State - 6.63 - See what I mean about polar opposites? Accuracy is crucial for an NFL quarterback, and Falk has it. He's struggled the past year or so but I think his accuracy and intelligence will give him a shot to be a star. If he can work enough to get his release time faster, he could be the top QB to come out of this class.

7. Mike White, Western Kentucky - 5.78 - Quite a drop-off. I think White is better than prospects such as Kyle Lauletta (5.75) and Mason Rudolph (5.75) because he has a solid combination of arm strength and accuracy (better arm than Lauletta and I think better vision than Rudolph).

My favorite QBs in the class are Jackson, Falk, and Mayfield.

 

[Groink]

Could be wrong (hope I'm not) but I just can't shake the feeling that Allen is going to turn out to be a very good NFL quarterback.  He's getting picked apart and over-analyzed now.  I like him.  Oh, and I have no idea how to rank this qb class...

[winitall]

6 hours ago, Iamcanadian said:

Arm strength is pretty well the first check off when evaluating NFL potential in a QB. If you do not have at least the required arm strength, you are not likely to ever be a franchise QB!!!

Does it guarantee success, of course not, but you have to have a strong arm to even get consideration as a potential NFL starting QB. QB's who lack a strong arm, are candidates as career backups, but that is about it for them. 

Do you need a generational arm, absolutely not, but never underestimate arm strength, it is definitely the first box that must be checked off before going much further in assessing a QB's chances at the next level.

As for the Marino comparison, it really isn't that bad, both were big strong armed QB's coming out of college and each had red flags when they were or going to be drafted. Marino's red flags were serious enough, that around 5 QB's were drafted ahead of him in round 1, before he was picked near the end of round 1. Let's not whitewash the red flags he had, they were quite serious at the time.

Once a QB gets past arm strength, then intangibles take over in assessing their chances, followed by college production and mechanical problems.

Allen played on a team lacking any talent at WR, it is tough to have a high completion average when you WR's are always covered with little separation. Does he have accuracy issues, yes, but they are a bit overblown. He has already shown that some of his accuracy problems stem from mechanical problems, some of which are quite correctable with solid coaching.

IMO, even Cleveland has not made up their mind between Darnold and Allen and at worst, Allen will be the second QB chosen in the draft. Rosen and Mayfield have their red flags as well and  in both their cases, their red flags might just be more serious than Allen's and Allen's ceiling is off the charts compared to Rosen and Masyfield's. Can he reach his ceiling, only time will tell which is ditto for all 4 QB's in the conversation. After all, only around 20% of QB's drafted in the top 12 picks ever succeed, the other 80% flop!!! 

I haven't seen anyone argue against there being a minimum arm strength requirement?  That isn't the question being asked right now.  People are debating whether it matters after the original box has been checked.  In terms of total boxes checked there is no way that Allen is the best Quarterback in the draft.  Sure he might check 4 boxes in arm strength (necessary, above average, great, and elite) but there aren't many other boxes that he checks.  His accuracy is below average and I'm not sure he always knows how much to put on balls, not to mention there are some decision making questions at times.  Give me the guy who checks all those boxes and just has the necessary arm strength over someone who has four checks in arm strength and not much else.  Arm strength is important, nobody is really arguing that it isn't.  The question is that if a guy has the necessary arm strength, is it more important to have arm strength progress to elite or would you rather he be more well rounded?  If you think the former you take a guy like Josh Allen, if you think the latter you probably won't take Josh Allen in the top 5.

[DoleINGout]

6 hours ago, DoleINGout said:

1. Tom Brady

2. Brett Favre

3. Matt Ryan

4. Jimmy Garoppolo

5. Dan Marino

1. Mason Rudolph (Tom Brady)

2. Josh Allen (Brett Favre)

3. Logan Woodside (Matt Ryan)

4. Mike White (Jimmy Garoppolo)

5. Josh Rosen (Dan Marino)

6. Sam Darnold (Tony Romo)

7. Lamar Jackson (Randall Cunningham)

8. Kurt Benkert (Jay Cutler)

9. Baker Mayfield (Robert Griffin III)

10. Kyle Lauletta (Josh McCown)