Jaguars acquire Cody Kessler

[.Buzz]

13 minutes ago, Speedyg said:

Probably the same type of analytics that led the Browns to take him in the 3rd round. Now that you mention it, Tony K probably had a hand in this with his analytics 

This had to do with those QB's in their rookie year, not in college...

We gave up a conditional 7th lol.

[Tugboat]

1 hour ago, Speedyg said:

Probably the same type of analytics that led the Browns to take him in the 3rd round. Now that you mention it, Tony K probably had a hand in this with his analytics 

Yeah.  This seems like the sort of analytics reaching that gets done to justify something kinda silly.  Using flattering thresholds to portray a mostly irrelevant trend as a big positive!!!

Which...considering we gave up a conditional 7th rounder next year...hardly seems like it needs any sort of justification or even really explanation.  We got a potential backup QB on a cheap deal.  'Nuff said really.  Don't need to pump his tires and make it sound like he might be more than he is.

[.Buzz]

2 hours ago, Tugboat said:

Yeah.  This seems like the sort of analytics reaching that gets done to justify something kinda silly.  Using flattering thresholds to portray a mostly irrelevant trend as a big positive!!!

Which...considering we gave up a conditional 7th rounder next year...hardly seems like it needs any sort of justification or even really explanation.  We got a potential backup QB on a cheap deal.  'Nuff said really.  Don't need to pump his tires and make it sound like he might be more than he is.

No one is pumping his tires. It's a statistic that was posted by a random football writer. 

[DuvalsKing]

Cody can potentially be better than Henne a few games Kessler looked solid he was the starter going into last season. Browns had no talent the team is like 1-31 over the past 2 yrs. I don’t see them (the jags) picking a QB in the first 2 rounds it may be a smoke screen but I don’t think they address it in the first 2 rounds problem is, no QB drafted after round 2 is going to be a world beater.. Cody was not coached  well and the talent was boo boo in Cleveland. He can be a respectable back up. It’s scary because when Coughlin who believes in drafting a QB every yr if he could but it doesn’t look promising for the Jags drafting a guy who could potentially unseat Blake. It will also cause an issue if Blake misses significant time in the future. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

20 hours ago, DuvalsKing said:

Cody can potentially be better than Henne a few games Kessler looked solid he was the starter going into last season. Browns had no talent the team is like 1-31 over the past 2 yrs. I don’t see them (the jags) picking a QB in the first 2 rounds it may be a smoke screen but I don’t think they address it in the first 2 rounds problem is, no QB drafted after round 2 is going to be a world beater.. Cody was not coached  well and the talent was boo boo in Cleveland. He can be a respectable back up. It’s scary because when Coughlin who believes in drafting a QB every yr if he could but it doesn’t look promising for the Jags drafting a guy who could potentially unseat Blake. It will also cause an issue if Blake misses significant time in the future. 

No QB drafted after round 2 is ever going to be expected to be a world-beater unless he is a wife-beater. I dont think Kessler changes our plans really at all. Anyone Cleveland would let go for a conditional 7th next year isn't likely going to change our plans

[Speedyg]

On 3/29/2018 at 5:37 PM, .Buzz said:

No one is pumping his tires. It's a statistic that was posted by a random football writer. 

But why post it if not to pump his tires? The criteria is obviously a tough one to meet, so it was meant to say "look, in 2 decades only these X people did it!"

But the sample size is only half a season...and it was done with a historically bad team (not saying much for browns of course).

I will say watching some of these cut ups, the one guy that stood out...Terrell Pryor.

Pryor was to Kessler as Arob was to Blake in 2015. Almost every game there are at least 2 throws that Kessler had no business making that Pryor made a great play on to turn it into a big gain.

What in the world happened to him in Washington?

[.Buzz]

11 hours ago, Speedyg said:

But why post it if not to pump his tires? The criteria is obviously a tough one to meet, so it was meant to say "look, in 2 decades only these X people did it!"

But the sample size is only half a season...and it was done with a historically bad team (not saying much for browns of course).

I will say watching some of these cut ups, the one guy that stood out...Terrell Pryor.

Pryor was to Kessler as Arob was to Blake in 2015. Almost every game there are at least 2 throws that Kessler had no business making that Pryor made a great play on to turn it into a big gain.

What in the world happened to him in Washington?

Just saying that the Jaguars found a cheap option who has some upside of being a solid backup who can possibly come in and be adequate?

Most of these guys jobs are to find random statistics like that. Twitter is full of that.

[Speedyg]

12 hours ago, .Buzz said:

Just saying that the Jaguars found a cheap option who has some upside of being a solid backup who can possibly come in and be adequate?

Most of these guys jobs are to find random statistics like that. Twitter is full of that.

I don't really have a problem with the trade give how low risk it is. But my point is...its the same type of "analysis" that's given us:

Blaine Gabbert is in top 3rd when given at least 2.6 seconds to throw

Yeldon is x at goal line carries

James Sample is the best coverage safety in NCAA

[.Buzz]

2 hours ago, Speedyg said:

I don't really have a problem with the trade give how low risk it is. But my point is...its the same type of "analysis" that's given us:

Blaine Gabbert is in top 3rd when given at least 2.6 seconds to throw

Yeldon is x at goal line carries

James Sample is the best coverage safety in NCAA

This guy is being traded for a *conditional* 7th. Gabbert we spent a top 10 pick on, Yeldon was a 2nd Rd pick, and Sample was drafted in the 4th round.

There's zero downside.

I'm also quite sure there has been hits due to analytics. I wouldn't just chalk up everytime it's been used it's been a failure. I'm also quite sure TC and Caldwell didn't trade for a guy because of one statistic. It's not like they watched tape of the guy prior and hated what they saw but was shown one stat and it changed their mind.

 

[Speedyg]

5 hours ago, .Buzz said:

This guy is being traded for a *conditional* 7th. Gabbert we spent a top 10 pick on, Yeldon was a 2nd Rd pick, and Sample was drafted in the 4th round.

There's zero downside.

I'm also quite sure there has been hits due to analytics. I wouldn't just chalk up everytime it's been used it's been a failure. I'm also quite sure TC and Caldwell didn't trade for a guy because of one statistic. It's not like they watched tape of the guy prior and hated what they saw but was shown one stat and it changed their mind.

 

I'm sure analytics has had hits. On the contrary, I just think these types of "analysis" is the type that hurts rather than help the case for analytics.

Are you, or Silva actually going to sit here and say that Kessler was a 90 rating type guy his rookie year?

It was 9 games, a very small sample size, just 2 games shy of Foles torrid run when he first started. Not only that, the attempts are lower and the yards are significantly lower as well than most of the counterparts.

The stat (and the tweet really) was intended to show him along the likes of Wilson and Ben, when the real stats are actually closer to Bulger.

150 yards passing per game is such a low threshold that anyone compiling the stat really should have thrown his out from the list.  

[Tugboat]

21 hours ago, .Buzz said:

Just saying that the Jaguars found a cheap option who has some upside of being a solid backup who can possibly come in and be adequate?

Most of these guys jobs are to find random statistics like that. Twitter is full of that.

Twitter is full of stupid stuff though.  Doesn't make it good, relevant, or insightful content just because it's somebody's job to come up with manipulative/flattering/random statistics to flood twitter with.

6 hours ago, .Buzz said:

This guy is being traded for a *conditional* 7th. Gabbert we spent a top 10 pick on, Yeldon was a 2nd Rd pick, and Sample was drafted in the 4th round.

There's zero downside.

I'm also quite sure there has been hits due to analytics. I wouldn't just chalk up everytime it's been used it's been a failure. I'm also quite sure TC and Caldwell didn't trade for a guy because of one statistic. It's not like they watched tape of the guy prior and hated what they saw but was shown one stat and it changed their mind.

 

Nobody is saying there's any real downside to acquiring Kessler though.    Just that there's very little upside either, in spite of what one obviously manipulated tire pumping piece of twitter statistical detritus might be trying to insinuate.

I mean, if it's not attempted "tire pumping", then what exactly is it?  What's the purpose of the data set as configured?  What's the reasoning for presenting the chart with those thresholds calibrated as they are?  Surely it's not entirely purposeless and random?  You posted it as though it's supposed to mean something...right?

 

If people want to pump Cody Kessler's tires like he's going to be somebody based on that particular metric over a small sample...that's fine.  It's kinda misleading i think, but whatever.  I'm just not into that, and i'm gonna call it tire pumping when i see it.  It comes across looking like "analytics" bent to a narrative, rather than the other way 'round, and imo that is bad.

[.Buzz]

1 hour ago, Tugboat said:

Twitter is full of stupid stuff though.  Doesn't make it good, relevant, or insightful content just because it's somebody's job to come up with manipulative/flattering/random statistics to flood twitter with.

Nobody is saying there's any real downside to acquiring Kessler though.    Just that there's very little upside either, in spite of what one obviously manipulated tire pumping piece of twitter statistical detritus might be trying to insinuate.

I mean, if it's not attempted "tire pumping", then what exactly is it?  What's the purpose of the data set as configured?  What's the reasoning for presenting the chart with those thresholds calibrated as they are?  Surely it's not entirely purposeless and random?  You posted it as though it's supposed to mean something...right?

 

If people want to pump Cody Kessler's tires like he's going to be somebody based on that particular metric over a small sample...that's fine.  It's kinda misleading i think, but whatever.  I'm just not into that, and i'm gonna call it tire pumping when i see it.  It comes across looking like "analytics" bent to a narrative, rather than the other way 'round, and imo that is bad.

No one here is supporting it. It's a statistic that is true even if it is manipulating about a player we just acquired. It just hit April in the dead of off-season weeks before the draft. This is that time of the year. If you hate it that's fine, but anything relating to the Jaguars is going to get posted here for discussion to keep the activity up.

This doesn't mean Kessler is in that class, he just got dealt for a 7th. But it's interesting nonetheless and shows that although he obviously isn't an answer for anything besides a backup, he may have more upside than we think to be a solid backup for the Long haul. He had his moments in 2016 of looking competent in a terrible situation.

It's not like this stat was found using some crazy weird method either. 

[Jags]

On 3/29/2018 at 1:53 PM, Speedyg said:

Probably the same type of analytics that led the Browns to take him in the 3rd round. Now that you mention it, Tony K probably had a hand in this with his analytics 

This. This is exactly how I have been feeling about this. Word for word. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

What analytics would say he is good?

[Tugboat]

4 hours ago, .Buzz said:

No one here is supporting it. It's a statistic that is true even if it is manipulating about a player we just acquired. It just hit April in the dead of off-season weeks before the draft. This is that time of the year. If you hate it that's fine, but anything relating to the Jaguars is going to get posted here for discussion to keep the activity up.

This doesn't mean Kessler is in that class, he just got dealt for a 7th. But it's interesting nonetheless and shows that although he obviously isn't an answer for anything besides a backup, he may have more upside than we think to be a solid backup for the Long haul. He had his moments in 2016 of looking competent in a terrible situation.

It's not like this stat was found using some crazy weird method either. 

So it gets posted, and i'm gonna call it out as tire pumping because that's what it is.  And discussion and activity were indeed had.  Even if it was discussion of how silly and misleading that "statistic" is when it comes to Cody Kessler and his potential upside, and the sort of company he belongs in as a backup QB project.