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Who gets drafted lower or higher then expected


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Just now, Kip Smithers said:

I really think you’re underestimating the mindset of NFL teams.

I really think you're underestimating how important QB's are to NFL teams. Having a QB is the difference between being a contender and a pretender in this league. There are a significant amount of teams that need QB's picking in the top 20. I'd honestly be dumbfounded if he slipped out of the top 5. Not going in the top 10 is insane. Not going in the top 15 is a joke. Not going in the top 20 is an impossibility.

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25 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

I really think you're underestimating how important QB's are to NFL teams. Having a QB is the difference between being a contender and a pretender in this league. There are a significant amount of teams that need QB's picking in the top 20. I'd honestly be dumbfounded if he slipped out of the top 5. Not going in the top 10 is insane. Not going in the top 15 is a joke. Not going in the top 20 is an impossibility.

And you’re underestimating the willingness for teams to pass on QBs. 

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2 hours ago, Kip Smithers said:

I really think you’re underestimating the mindset of NFL teams.

I have to agree with Bleed the Clock on this one. Nobody except a few teams liked any of the QB's coming out last year, yet 3 of them get drafted pretty high and all 3 now look like steals!!!

Teams that are QB desperate are not going to pass on this set of QB's no matter what red flags they may carry. Their overall ability is just too good to pass on and at least 5 or 6 of them are going round 1, with a very strong possibility 4 of them, go picks 1,2,3 and 4 in the draft!!!

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17 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

I've got Lamar Jackson falling out of the first round and probably entering some sort of mini free fall. Electrifying as he may be, this is becoming a laughable clusterbang with him and his mom. Scouts and teams are starting to irritated and dynamics like this have recently led to trouble- (Eli Apple for example). No team is going to WANT to deal with that. It isn't like Lamar's mom is a renowned football identity like Archie Manning was (and even that was irritating to listen to). 

IMO, and this can be called a hot take if you so choose:

Lamar Jackson is a slightly built running QB. We've seen it fail. A lot. Rarely has that kind of "electric" talent made a huge difference in the NFL. Lamar is fast and has a good arm. But in recent memory, we've seen guys who, while not as fast, were every bit as good of athletes (be it size/strength, size/speed, size/speed/strength) fail to live up to expectations. Kaepernick, Griffin, Newton (outside of some really good moments and that 1 really good year), Locker... Now, I don't mean to say that quarterbacks in these molds are sure to fail, as we've seen Wilson and Vick and others play very well. But lets be honest, it isn't the norm. If that's the only thing Jackson has to bring to the table, he's already facing an uphill battle of skepticism from scouts and GMs. 

His pre-draft process is becoming a bizarre headache. Not Adam Muema levels of head scratching yet, but certainly not what anyone would expect from a "franchise" guy. If this were a year where every franchise QB prospect was a choir boy, maybe Jackson's process comes off as just a little quirky. But we're talking a class with Josh Rosen and Baker Mayfield. And they're showing up and from what I've read, really impressing people. Maybe it is a bit unfair, but I truly think GMs are going to look at that and think "man, those 2 can show up and do their thing like adults, why can't Lamar?". Simply put, he's being shown up by his competition. Whatever gamble he was trying to take, it's backfiring. At best, he's coming off as a borderline momma's boy who is willing to take a backseat and allow Rome to burn around him. At worst, he's really that immature and incapable of making sound, rational, mature decisions. There just isn't any way this is going to not wind up haunting him somehow, and I personally find it unfortunate and detrimental to him later on. 

The Wonderlic is meh in all honesty. I've taken a mock one and made a 38 on it. I can't say its the "official" one, but what I took certainly had nothing to do with football. It's kind of like the LSAT in a way. But Lamar's poor performance on it, coupled with the mom stuff, his particular playing style, and his odd reluctance to run just all adds up to a bad look. At the combine, he claimed he would run a 4.3. I want to say I heard on the radio he recently said "go watch my film" or something akin to that. He's beginning to come off as cocky or arrogant if that's the case. We all know Rosen can throw. We all know Allen can throw. We all know Darnold is fairly mobile. If you don't want to go through drills because of what people already "know", it just comes across poorly. I don't think it's a character flaw, but I think he's not doing/saying the right things to the right people. Jacoby Brissett didn't hire an agent either, but his business dealings haven't been the dramedy that Jackson's has become.  

I think Lamar is personally ok (I don't know him), but he's proving to be an oddball with a rebellious-ish streak that isn't doing himself any justice. When the time comes, I feel like someone who wanted to take him early might just decide to wait rather than stake their career on this kid at this point. Nothing to do with talent at all, but the off field pre-draft process is becoming a bit concerning. He was a guy who's style was already being heavily scrutinized (or they wouldn't be fielding position switch questions at him) and while I think his heart is in the right place by wanting to show that he's a QB-first, the way he's going about it is a turn off. He had the most to gain by having solid interviews and workouts and he's literally sitting on the sidelines like Malcolm Butler, watching the situation unfold. 

Well Cousins proved to be an oddball and while it finally turned off the Washington owner and FO, there were plenty of teams lined up to take a chance on him.

The QB position is just too important to be too picky when you believe a prospect has actual starting potential. I am not at all sure, how successful Jackson can be as a starter, but if he is anything like Vick, he could be the steal of he draft if he lasts till around #12.

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7 hours ago, Iamcanadian said:

Well Cousins proved to be an oddball and while it finally turned off the Washington owner and FO, there were plenty of teams lined up to take a chance on him.

The QB position is just too important to be too picky when you believe a prospect has actual starting potential. I am not at all sure, how successful Jackson can be as a starter, but if he is anything like Vick, he could be the steal of he draft if he lasts till around #12.

Begs to question though, are you getting Mike or Marcus? Not to correlate Marcus' on field performance to Jackson's too stringently and Jackson's off field weirdness pales in comparison, just illustrating that I think in the era of Johnny Football (and others) GMs are a bit more aware.

Not to go too deep, but Cousins was a more classic type QB with a questionable ceiling coming out (he was taken to be a backup and happened to blossom). Now, I'm by no means one to say classic dropback passers are superior, but there is a bit of a stigma there. Cousins also proved himself in the NFL before his oddball nature really came out. And he was a 4th round pick. 

My concern with Jackson is that he hasn't done a single thing in the NFL and is already raising eyebrows for all of the wrong reasons. Those who prove they can play can be as quirky as they want- Cousins, Von with his chickens, Sherman, etc. But they all came and put in work first. Same goes for headaches and headcases- Burfict, Aldon (at least for a bit), others past and present.

The only QB I can think of in recent memory as a predraft headache with personality based questions that has succeeded is Cam Newton. Vince Young was weird and quirky and wound up being a pain to deal with. Same goes for Griffin. Jackson doesn't compare to the freak that Newton was (to be fair, few do) nor Vince Young. Maybe some see him as a more polished Griffin? I don't know. What I do know is he isn't tje generational type prospect that Young or Newton were so his actions aren't going to get as much leeway.

Again, I don't think it's a lasting issue nor do I see him falling past MAYBE pick 40 (if he falls at all since its purely conjecture). But of the prospects out there that have 1st round talent, much less what I personally see as top 10-15, Jackson's the only one I can see falling in any significant way. Granted, I suppose that depends on where someone pegs him to go in the first place huh?

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33 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

Begs to question though, are you getting Mike or Marcus? Not to correlate Marcus' on field performance to Jackson's too stringently and Jackson's off field weirdness pales in comparison, just illustrating that I think in the era of Johnny Football (and others) GMs are a bit more aware.

Not to go too deep, but Cousins was a more classic type QB with a questionable ceiling coming out (he was taken to be a backup and happened to blossom). Now, I'm by no means one to say classic dropback passers are superior, but there is a bit of a stigma there. Cousins also proved himself in the NFL before his oddball nature really came out. And he was a 4th round pick. 

My concern with Jackson is that he hasn't done a single thing in the NFL and is already raising eyebrows for all of the wrong reasons. Those who prove they can play can be as quirky as they want- Cousins, Von with his chickens, Sherman, etc. But they all came and put in work first. Same goes for headaches and headcases- Burfict, Aldon (at least for a bit), others past and present.

The only QB I can think of in recent memory as a predraft headache with personality based questions that has succeeded is Cam Newton. Vince Young was weird and quirky and wound up being a pain to deal with. Same goes for Griffin. Jackson doesn't compare to the freak that Newton was (to be fair, few do) nor Vince Young. Maybe some see him as a more polished Griffin? I don't know. What I do know is he isn't tje generational type prospect that Young or Newton were so his actions aren't going to get as much leeway.

Again, I don't think it's a lasting issue nor do I see him falling past MAYBE pick 40 (if he falls at all since its purely conjecture). But of the prospects out there that have 1st round talent, much less what I personally see as top 10-15, Jackson's the only one I can see falling in any significant way. Granted, I suppose that depends on where someone pegs him to go in the first place huh?

Look, if pro teams can put up with Lonzo Ball's father, I think they can handle Jackson's mother who is nowhere near as disruptive. Talent is talent and if a team believes Jackson is even close to Vick, he is getting drafted in round 1. HC's and GM's get fired quite quickly if they do not get their hands on a franchise QB and with that threat hanging over their heads, the last thing they would worry about is a few quirks.

It might drop him a pick or 2, but if they see talent, a QB desperate team will draft him in round 1 and take their chances!!! 

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1 hour ago, Iamcanadian said:

Look, if pro teams can put up with Lonzo Ball's father, I think they can handle Jackson's mother who is nowhere near as disruptive. Talent is talent and if a team believes Jackson is even close to Vick, he is getting drafted in round 1. HC's and GM's get fired quite quickly if they do not get their hands on a franchise QB and with that threat hanging over their heads, the last thing they would worry about is a few quirks.

It might drop him a pick or 2, but if they see talent, a QB desperate team will draft him in round 1 and take their chances!!! 

You put up alot of "if's".

Those if's are determined by how they judge him him through the game tape, through the individual workouts, through the private meetings, through interviews. Except the only thing teams have been able to get with him is his game tape. Because his mom wont set anything else up. Vick met with teams. Lamar is not putting anyone's fears to rest by being absent.

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I'll be shocked if Lamar Jackson falls out of the 1st round. From a pure talent standpoint he's right up there with guys like Vick, Newton,  and Watson. He's every bit as freakish of an athlete as guys like Vick and Newton. This time of year is notorious for overblown media reports which seems to be what is happening with Jackson.

 

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12 hours ago, Iamcanadian said:

Look, if pro teams can put up with Lonzo Ball's father, I think they can handle Jackson's mother who is nowhere near as disruptive. Talent is talent and if a team believes Jackson is even close to Vick, he is getting drafted in round 1. HC's and GM's get fired quite quickly if they do not get their hands on a franchise QB and with that threat hanging over their heads, the last thing they would worry about is a few quirks.

It might drop him a pick or 2, but if they see talent, a QB desperate team will draft him in round 1 and take their chances!!! 

"If" he's anything like Michael Vick.... that's a ridiculously broad assumption to make.

"IF Jake Locker could stay healthy and increase his accuracy". 

"IF Jimmy Garappolo was from a D1 school"

"If Manziel wasn't a pain in the rear"

"If Aaron Rodgers wasn't a Tedford QB".

"If Sanchez was allowed to sit and learn".

"If Geno Smith could put it all together"

 

Point is, physical skills don't mean everything. Some of the above examples failed, some flourished. Sometimes otherwise irrelevant things can drop someone's stock despite physical talent (Rodgers) while in other cases physical talent can't trump a headcase persona Manziel who many had pegged as a top 10 lock for quite some time). Other times, physical talent gets over emphasised and everything goes downhill (hello Jamarcus). 

The NBA and NFL are very different structures. To boot, Ball built up a marketable brand that teams are willing to overlook a lot of things for. Jackson's mom is purely being a detriment while building nothing that could interest a team. As much as Ball aggravates me, he's proven to be a successful businessman, charlatan or not. There is a huge difference 

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Higher:

Mike Hughes

Derrius Guice

Taven Bryan

Dallas Goedert

Luke Falk

Ty Crosby

Quinton Meeks

Rod Taylor

Andrew Brown

 

Lower:

Mo Hurst

Mike McGlinchey

James Washington

Mark Andrews

Sam Hubbard

Tremaine Edmunds

Arden Key

 

On 3/31/2018 at 2:47 PM, BleedTheClock said:

This would be shocking. He strikes me as a solid, yet unspectacular CB that doesn't have the physical tools to shut the freaks in the NFL down. His tape is really good, but I can't remember a cornerback going in the top half of the 1st round that wasn't standoutishly big or fast.

Joe Haden. :/

Hughes is a better prospect than Adoree Jackson.

 

 

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On 3/30/2018 at 9:52 AM, ACO said:

I can see DJ Moore being the 1st WR off the board. The hype around him is ridiculous right now. I also think Minkah will fall out of the top 10.

I have to believe Oakland would take him at 10. He's got Gruden's mental makeup. Tough, loves the game, natural leader. And Ansley, his former DB coach is the DB coach now at Oakland.

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On 3/31/2018 at 2:26 PM, Kip Smithers said:

I really think you’re underestimating the mindset of NFL teams.

You really think that given how much we're in a QB-driven and QB-hungry league that teams are going to leave Mayfield on the board?  He'll be a top 5 pick.  You can bookmark this post.

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2 hours ago, big_palooka said:

I have to believe Oakland would take him at 10. He's got Gruden's mental makeup. Tough, loves the game, natural leader. And Ansley, his former DB coach is the DB coach now at Oakland.

Where would he play? CB? I'd rather have Ward or Josh Jackson in that case.

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