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Josh Allen


Kiwibrown

drafting josh Allen  

144 members have voted

  1. 1. Id draft Josh Allen



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34 minutes ago, Breesus mode said:

You mean Darnold who played significantly better? Take your own advice kid.

With analysis like "Darnold played significantly better," I don't know how to argue this. I love Sam Darnold and would take him #1 over Allen, but Allen is better when bullets are flying around him. There is tape available on YouTube of draft prospects. You should check it out sometime. It really is helpful.

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9 hours ago, Superman(DH23) said:

Yeah thats really what this all comes down to.  His tape is the toughest to evaluate of the big 4 bc of the surrounding talent.  When im watching, play after play after play nobody is open and Allen is having to make 1 or 2 guys miss in the backfield before saying eff it and firing a laser at somebodys head.  But when i turn on the Senior Bowl tape its...just...wow.  One thing i will say is the accuracy is so tied to his feet, thats why hes as good as he is on the run. If his feet are right the ball arrives in a hurry right between the numbers.  When his footwork gets sloppy, the ball gets sloppy.  One of the reasons I think Cleveland would be a real good fit for him.  As the #3, he wont get many reps in practice, so you can really work on dialing in the feet.  Hes made tremendous strides this offseason.  I think its definitely fixable and i think hes got the work ethic to fix it.

I like Allen a lot, but Cleveland is in an unique situation coming off a 1-31 record and a winless season. They simply must draft a QB who can be successful by year 2 or their GM will be fired, like Haslam has fired his last 3 GM's after 2 seasons on the job!

Allen down the road may and I stress may, turn out to be the best QB coming out of this draft class, but he will need more time to fully develop than Darnold will require and Darnold also has an excellent shot at being the top QB out of this draft!

Cleveland must draft Darnold or their totally incompetent owner can be facing millions of dollars in losses, maybe even hundreds of millions of dollars. They simply put, need to win by year 2 or the Cleveland fan base will explode in total rebellion and Haslam will be looking at no better than a half empty stadium. 

When you put Dorsey window to produce a winner or be fired and the amount of money Haslam could be facing in losses, Darnold is clearly the safer pick for the Browns and will be their choice. Simply put, they do not have the luxury of waiting on Allen to be successful!!!

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21 minutes ago, Iamcanadian said:

They simply put, need to win by year 2 or the Cleveland fan base will explode in total rebellion and Haslam will be looking at no better than a half empty stadium. 

I agree with your analysis that we should take Darnold, but the above take is what I disagree with you on. Browns fans are too loyal. They'll show up and support the team regardless of how bad things get.

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1 hour ago, BleedTheClock said:

I agree with your analysis that we should take Darnold, but the above take is what I disagree with you on. Browns fans are too loyal. They'll show up and support the team regardless of how bad things get.

I can attest that I will certainly be one of those fans who still sits in those stands and endures sheer suffering. But he's not entirely wrong either. The number of empty seats in that stadium last year was ridiculously sad. 

I think, to some extent, they cannot wait on a QB who will take more than two years to develop into a competent starting QB. Allen presents that risk, which at #1 overall is just not worth it.

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4 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

With analysis like "Darnold played significantly better," I don't know how to argue this. I love Sam Darnold and would take him #1 over Allen, but Allen is better when bullets are flying around him. There is tape available on YouTube of draft prospects. You should check it out sometime. It really is helpful.

Boy, you sure are making lots of assumptions for not knowing much of anything. I have watched tape on both, Darnold was much better. Now run along kid, and maybe learn how to actually scout.

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6 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

I agree with your analysis that we should take Darnold, but the above take is what I disagree with you on. Browns fans are too loyal. They'll show up and support the team regardless of how bad things get.

You can say that practically about every fan base in pro football, but in the end, you have to give your fan base at least some hope or eventually they will stop buying tickets and I really believe we are at that stage right now.

It doesn't mean you stop being a fan, but you just reach a point where shelling out real money to buy season tickets just does not seem worth it. I have seen it before where a solid fan base has just had enough and suddenly after years of solid support, desert their team in droves by not buying tickets.

Of course, that is the beauty of finishing with the #1 overall pick, you get to draft a QB which puts real hope back into the fans mind and they are usually willing to give a team another 2 or possibly 3 years before they finally realize the team drafted a flop! Let's hope it does not turn out that way for Cleveland. But i do think that is why Allen is just too big a risk for Cleveland to take and of course, we could end up being really sorry if Allen strikes it rich.

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21 hours ago, Nastradamus said:

He has the highest percent of off target throws in 3 drafts, and its by a large gap. The drop rates of his WRs are nothing special and he's not pressured at an abnormal rate. 

How exactly are these off target throw figures derived?  How do they handle deliberate throwaways?  He's got a high number of those where his ability to hoodini out of the pocket under duress to get outside the tackle box and throw it away is the only thing that keeps them from taking a big loss?  How do they handle the semi-throwaway downs you see semi-regularly out of Allen where he puts them deep on the sideline in a spot where either his receiver makes a big toe-tapping grab...or nobody catches it?  Hint: His receivers never actually make that grab, because they're not very talented...but better receivers might come down with a couple.  How do these figures handle balls where he puts it in a place that a quality WR could've easily adjusted to, but his guys didn't?

I just have a really hard time trusting this "almighty off target % number" without really understanding where it's coming from.  Because i can see a lot of elements in Allen's game that could be construed and charted up as "off target" to the casual observer, that are plenty debatable.  It's easy to look at a Baker Mayfield game and chart "hit" or "miss" like a game of Battleship, because the scheme makes it clear as day, and the talent typically makes the most of whats there.  Ya'll don't think Allen's completion % might go up a few ticks if he had a big brute with the big, easy catch radius of Mark Andrews running down the field unchecked...and a bunch of routes featuring the guy right over the middle of the field where the easy money is found in a college spread system?

 

 

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16 hours ago, Yin-Yang said:

My potential NFL comp for Allen is a stronger armed Blake Bortles. A big quarterback with a strong arm that can get some with his legs, but will struggle with accuracy and mechanics. Iffy decision maker. 

If Allen fixes his footwork and learns to throw with anticipation, he’d be a more athletic Stafford.

I can actually see where this one is coming from, and it's got a little bit of merit to it.  The difference in arm talent is pretty stark though.  Allen in college, regularly throws routes that Bortles simple cannot complete without serving up ugly pick sixes and the like.  They've taken big swaths out of the route tree to hide Bortles actually very lackluster arm...to limit the turnovers.  Bortles is not a natural thrower of the football, and he's admitted as much himself.  It's plain to see.  Allen on the other hand, is a ludicrously natural football thrower.  It's rare natural throwing talent.

However, they are both big, deceptively athletic guys who have a natural aptitude for throwing on the run.  They're also both very clearly "projects" coming out in the draft.  And they both very clearly have that whole "gunslinger" mentality by nature.  I know Bortles is widely disliked 'round these parts...but if you give me a Bortles with an actual arm, who isn't throwing "wounded pheasants" all over the field every other pass attempt...i take that all day every day.  Bortles was a #3 pick, flawed as he is.  A better armed version of that...?  Sign me up.

 

I still think the better comp for Allen is...bigger Jay Cutler.  But either way...i'd take that chance.  You're not getting a surgeon here.  But sometimes the sledgehammer works.

 

9 hours ago, Iamcanadian said:

I like Allen a lot, but Cleveland is in an unique situation coming off a 1-31 record and a winless season. They simply must draft a QB who can be successful by year 2 or their GM will be fired, like Haslam has fired his last 3 GM's after 2 seasons on the job!

Allen down the road may and I stress may, turn out to be the best QB coming out of this draft class, but he will need more time to fully develop than Darnold will require and Darnold also has an excellent shot at being the top QB out of this draft!

Cleveland must draft Darnold or their totally incompetent owner can be facing millions of dollars in losses, maybe even hundreds of millions of dollars. They simply put, need to win by year 2 or the Cleveland fan base will explode in total rebellion and Haslam will be looking at no better than a half empty stadium. 

When you put Dorsey window to produce a winner or be fired and the amount of money Haslam could be facing in losses, Darnold is clearly the safer pick for the Browns and will be their choice. Simply put, they do not have the luxury of waiting on Allen to be successful!!!

Whatever team Allen goes to...he's going to be starting after a year at most.  You don't sit 1st round QBs any longer than that these days.  You just can't afford to.  Between burning years on that all important Rookie Deal, and just the immense fan pressure to get on with the show...Allen has at most, a year to sit, learn, and refine his mechanics.

The good news, is that he actually has a bit of a headstart on a lot of the fundamentals of most "Pro Style" offenses, especially in the footwork and other details under center.  It needs refinement...but he's got a solid base to start from.

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57 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

How exactly are these off target throw figures derived?  How do they handle deliberate throwaways?  He's got a high number of those where his ability to hoodini out of the pocket under duress to get outside the tackle box and throw it away is the only thing that keeps them from taking a big loss?  How do they handle the semi-throwaway downs you see semi-regularly out of Allen where he puts them deep on the sideline in a spot where either his receiver makes a big toe-tapping grab...or nobody catches it?  Hint: His receivers never actually make that grab, because they're not very talented...but better receivers might come down with a couple.  How do these figures handle balls where he puts it in a place that a quality WR could've easily adjusted to, but his guys didn't?

I just have a really hard time trusting this "almighty off target % number" without really understanding where it's coming from.  Because i can see a lot of elements in Allen's game that could be construed and charted up as "off target" to the casual observer, that are plenty debatable.  It's easy to look at a Baker Mayfield game and chart "hit" or "miss" like a game of Battleship, because the scheme makes it clear as day, and the talent typically makes the most of whats there.  Ya'll don't think Allen's completion % might go up a few ticks if he had a big brute with the big, easy catch radius of Mark Andrews running down the field unchecked...and a bunch of routes featuring the guy right over the middle of the field where the easy money is found in a college spread system?

 

 

You're right, its just coincidence that the other guys on the list are the 4 most inaccurate guys anyone can think of and Josh Allen is the only top QB to ever have talent issues around him. I concede 

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9 hours ago, Breesus mode said:

Boy, you sure are making lots of assumptions for not knowing much of anything. I have watched tape on both, Darnold was much better. Now run along kid, and maybe learn how to actually scout.

lol ok. Again, thanks for that excellent breakdown. Maybe one day I can learn to be as analytical as you. Ya know...when I grow up and become a big boy.

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2 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

lol ok. Again, thanks for that excellent breakdown. Maybe one day I can learn to be as analytical as you. Ya know...when I grow up and become a big boy.

Oh, you wanted my analysis? Here, pick a different hobby. Something you're actually good at.

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13 minutes ago, Breesus mode said:

Oh, you wanted my analysis? Here, pick a different hobby. Something you're actually good at.

Ill admit, after being called old timer by btc, i do find some sense of irony in you calling him a kid, especially when you are acting as immaturely as you are, that said...this is a football debate site, if you arent able to back up your argument, feel free to move on. Insulting somebody who disagrees with your perspective is not acceptable here.

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5 hours ago, Tugboat said:

How exactly are these off target throw figures derived?  How do they handle deliberate throwaways?  He's got a high number of those where his ability to hoodini out of the pocket under duress to get outside the tackle box and throw it away is the only thing that keeps them from taking a big loss?  How do they handle the semi-throwaway downs you see semi-regularly out of Allen where he puts them deep on the sideline in a spot where either his receiver makes a big toe-tapping grab...or nobody catches it?  Hint: His receivers never actually make that grab, because they're not very talented...but better receivers might come down with a couple.  How do these figures handle balls where he puts it in a place that a quality WR could've easily adjusted to, but his guys didn't?

I just have a really hard time trusting this "almighty off target % number" without really understanding where it's coming from.  Because i can see a lot of elements in Allen's game that could be construed and charted up as "off target" to the casual observer, that are plenty debatable.  It's easy to look at a Baker Mayfield game and chart "hit" or "miss" like a game of Battleship, because the scheme makes it clear as day, and the talent typically makes the most of whats there.  Ya'll don't think Allen's completion % might go up a few ticks if he had a big brute with the big, easy catch radius of Mark Andrews running down the field unchecked...and a bunch of routes featuring the guy right over the middle of the field where the easy money is found in a college spread system?

 

 

I've seen a few different places post some variation of accuracy percentage or off target percentage for the QBs this draft. Each would account for clear throwaways. Same with spikes. And drops/clear WR mistakes. I know PFF has had a variation of this stating he was about twice as inaccurate as Mayfield, and they've always adjusted for that stuff. Mike Clay was the one who posted the main tweet that people went nuts about with accuracy percentage, and he accounted for at least a few of those complaints in the comments, saying they were factored in. And still, I would argue some of the plays you mentioned could still be inaccurate, though. A jump ball that didn't have to be a jump ball may be catchable, and may have been in a safe place from a turnover perspective, but could still be inaccurate if it was unnecessary. Additionally, if it's one of those deep, only my guy can catch it, but it's difficult to catch, type throws, but there was another guy more open, that still could be a problem too.

There's obviously a lot of nuance that can go into that kind of stat. But the basic reality of it to me is, even if all those things factored into the stat made it look better, other QBs would have similar adjustments to their percentage. And in the end, the odds that accounting for the infrequent plays like those deep sideline passes (which, no matter what anyone says, were not a substantial portion of Allen's passes), he's still going to be lower in a stat like that than the rest of the top QBs. He just is. Even if you're as generous as possible. And we get dozens of these arguments every offseason on this forum. X player just needs an OL, Y player would be an all-pro with more touches, Z's drops or missed tackles or completion % or fumble rate were all the fault of someone else, and once that's better they'll be great. But those arguments and scenarios almost never pan out. People can come up with excuses or reasons galore on why his off target % looks bad, and his completion % looks bad, and his accuracy % looks bad, and his performance against the blitz looks bad, etc., and that's fine. But the fact that you have to search for explanations at all is still not a good sign. The simplest explanation is normally the right one. I don't get this hunt to find increasingly complicated explanations, like maybe he just threw a ton of this one type of uncommon pass that made him 10% less accurate. The guy was just inaccurate more often than the other guys. Other aspects hurt, sure, but he was just less accurate. It's that simple.

I dunno. I won't pretend to be a big draft guy. Haven't had the time in a few years. Have just watched tape of the top few QBs because the whole debate has been interesting to me. But I just feel like the Josh Allen narrative has been made way more complicated than it needs to be.

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