Jump to content

Josh Allen


Kiwibrown

drafting josh Allen  

144 members have voted

  1. 1. Id draft Josh Allen



Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Breesus mode said:

No, its because his mental side is severely lacking, and QB is mostly mental. It doesn't matter if you can throw the ball 75 yards when you can't hit an 8 yard slant.

Accuracy isn't a mental thing. It's a technical thing that can be worked on and improved.

His mental game is arguably at the top of the class. He's an excellent leader, he plays in a pro style scheme and throws NFL route tree passes, he isn't insulated by a spread offense that creates easy built-in yardage, he has experience changing protections and operating a huddle, and he makes full-field reads. Additionally, he keeps his eyes down the field when the pocket breaks down and shiz hits the fan. His mental game is not an issue at all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Breesus mode said:

 

No, its because his mental side is severely lacking, and QB is mostly mental. It doesn't matter if you can throw the ball 75 yards when you can't hit an 8 yard slant.

Where do you get the mental side is lacking? :S

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

How does that even work? What’s happening between his hand and the ball reaching the receiver that aren’t straight drops? He’s either an accurate passer or he isn’t, it’s not a difficult thing to measure. 

Almost all of Josh Allen's incompletions fall into one of 3 categories: (1) drop by the receiver; (2) the receiver couldn't get separation OR the offensive line broke down leading to a throwaway; and (3) Allen looks off the open check down to try and make a big play down field to a covered receiver that results in a break up by the defensive back or interception.

With regard to the first two categories of incompletions, I don't blame the QB.  With regard to the third category, this is a trait that can be unlearned.  Josh Allen is a gunslinger by nature.  His coach has even admitted to this.  When you have an arm like him, sometimes it can be your worst enemy because you think you can fit the ball into any window.  And yes he has a penchant for trying to make the big throw rather than just taking what's there.  I don't look at that trait as a huge negative.  Its not the same as being inaccurate.  Its a trait that can be coached out of him to a degree.  But I also like that he's looking to make the big play rather than taking the check down.  So its not something you totally want to take from his game.

The other incompletions I've seen are natural misses that almost every other QB makes.  From my tape study, I did not see Josh Allen missing open throws anymore than Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen (who people think are accurate passers) have.  Every QB misses an open receiver ever now and then.  Josh Allen isn't any different in that regard.  The only reason his completion percentage is so low compared to his peers is because his offense did not feature a lot of those short easy throws at the line of scrimmage that Darnold or Mayfield's offense featured so heavily.  Most of Allen's throws were down the field beyond the line to gain.  He was not throwing screens like most college QBs do now.  He also lacked the talent around him that the other highly touted QBs in this class had.  In fact the only QB who comes close to Allen when it comes to poor wide receiver and offensive line play is Lamar Jackson (another guy who I think is vastly underrated). 

All in all, I don't view Josh Allen as "inaccurate".  I think that label on him is more fiction than fact.  Its based on the stats and I'm not a big fan of using college stats when it comes to projecting players.  Watching the film is always more valuable.  And based on what I've seen on film, Josh Allen is just accurate as Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, Chwf3rd25 said:

I’m not a big Allen fan but I think this is an important point and I came to the same conclusion after watching Iowa.  A lot of his mistakes/INTs/poor decisions came when he was trying to force balls in games where Wyoming was down and needed to put up points.  Still not great decisions but I think they’re a little more excusable.

 

I think you’re discounting this a little too much.  College stats don’t matter unless they have a demonstrated correlation with NFL success.  Same thing with certain height/weight/speed requirements and that’s why lots of teams have firm cut offs because they know scouting is an inexact science and these measurements have a proven correlation to future success.  I don’t have the numbers in front of me but the QBs with Allen’s production profile have a very poor track record and I don’t think that should be dismissed so easily.

I'm not saying you shouldn't look at the numbers at all.  I also looked at Josh Allen's stats and had a negative perception of him before watching his film.  Typically guys who do put up bad numbers are terrible.  And the tape confirms it.   I just don't like the whole analytics movement in sports where numbers should overrule what you see with your eyes.

Like I said, I went into Josh Allen's tape looking to confirm that he's an overrated prospect because of the poor stats he put up over the season when I wasn't watching Wyoming but just looking at the bottom line on ESPN.  Then I popped in the tape to actually watch him and was IMMEDIATELY BLOWN AWAY.  You don't even need to go deep into his film to see throws you've probably never seen before or to see velocity on simple out routes you've never seen from a QB before AT ANY LEVEL.   Now I just didn't stop there.  I made it a point to go and look up his allegedly bad performances against the Power 5 teams people say he struggled against.  I saw nothing to confirm that notion.  On the contrary, I came away even more impressed with Josh Allen as a prospect after watching his performance against Iowa (arguably the best team on his team's schedule last year).

I'm not saying numbers don't matter at all.  I'm just saying they don't matter to Josh Allen.  He's the real deal.  And anyone whose criticism of him is limited to the stats has obviously not watched him play.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, VanS said:

And based on what I've seen on film, Josh Allen is just accurate as Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen.

I agree with you that his accuracy problems are horribly overstated, but this isn't right either. Especially in regards to Rosen. Rosen is pinpoint accurate. And Darnold is also more consistently accurate.

 

I wish there was a way we could all skype in and watch a game tape of Josh Allen so we could talk through a lot of these wildly differing takes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, VanS said:

Like I said, I went into Josh Allen's tape looking to confirm that he's an overrated prospect because of the poor stats he put up over the season when I wasn't watching Wyoming but just looking at the bottom line on ESPN.  Then I popped in the tape to actually watch him and was IMMEDIATELY BLOWN AWAY.  You don't even need to go deep into his film to see throws you've probably never seen before or to see velocity on simple out routes you've never seen from a QB before AT ANY LEVEL.   Now I just didn't stop there.  I made it a point to go and look up his allegedly bad performances against the Power 5 teams people say he struggled against.  I saw nothing to confirm that notion.  On the contrary, I came away even more impressed with Josh Allen as a prospect after watching his performance against Iowa (arguably the best team on his team's schedule last year).

This is pretty much exactly what I did. Expected to see an overrated QB missing easy throws way too often and putting his team in bad spots. I honestly called the police when I saw how poor the talent around him was. I filed a missing person's claim for all of their offensive players because according to their web site, they do have more than 1 offensive player on the roster. The Wyoming roster was hilariously bad. Even with that garbage roster, Josh Allen was able to display his immense talent. The dreaded Iowa game that I always hear about....I put that on and instead of being disappointed, it sold me on Allen as a franchise QB. His team had no chance, but Allen played pretty well in that game and showed the kind of elite physical traits that have teams salivating over him. It's a mistake to categorize him as a guy that gets pub because he's got a great arm. He's much more than that. The arm is his most impressive trait, but there are plenty of areas where he has shown to be NFL-quality.

The same people that hate Josh Allen are the same people that hated Cam Newton. And Cam's mental game was nowhere near Josh Allen's. I'd venture to say about the same amount of posters on here hated Cam then as they do Allen now. And there were more reasons to be concerned with Cam than there are with Allen. It's bizarre how people are harping on his one fundamental flaw (accuracy) and acting like the other QB's are flawless.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, onejayhawk said:

He's this year's Patrick Mahomes II. What more is there to say?

Nah.  I liked Mahomes last year but Josh Allen is a much better prospect.  Mahomes doesn't have Josh Allen's size, arm strength, athleticism, or intangibles.  Josh Allen is nearly 3 inches taller, his hands are nearly 1 inch larger, and he's more than 10 lbs heavier.  And yet, despite the much larger frame, Josh Allen is the more explosive athlete.  He tested better in the 40 yard dash, vertical jump, and broad jump than Patrick Mahomes.  The only athletic testing Mahomes bested Allen in was the 3-cone (barely) and the short shuttle.  When it came to arm strength, Josh Allen threw the ball harder according to the combine MPH numbers.  Now that may not be totally accurate but I've heard many respected football minds say Josh Allen has the strongest arm they've ever seen.  And finally in terms of intangibles, Josh Allen scored much higher on the wonderlic.

Josh Allen is similar to Mahomes only in terms of arm strength.  And even then Josh Allen bests him.  When you look at both prospects overall, Josh Allen is the much better prospect IMO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, navysaintsfan said:

I don't think Josh Allen should be considered a 1st round talent. I will also say I this article clearly defines why I would take Lamar Jackson before Allen as well.

https://draftwire.usatoday.com/2017/10/25/2018-nfl-draft-lamar-jackson-josh-allen/

I might be the only guy anywhere that's a Lamar Jackson AND Josh Allen guy.  Even though I have Josh Allen as the #1 QB in this class, Lamar Jackson is the only guy who in my opinion has a potentially higher ceiling.  If Lamar Jackson reaches his full potential he could be a league changing type of player (similar to how Michael Jordan changed the NBA).  Now I don't think that will happen because I don't think Lamar Jackson has the intangibles to fufill his athletic potential.  However, I do think he will still be a very dangerous player in the NFL.  I've been on the record saying that he's the best QB in this class in terms of INSTANT IMPACT.  His athleticism is so other-worldly that even if he never improves as a passer, he'll be able to cause mayhem in the NFL with his legs in the same way Michael Vick did for so many years in Atlanta.

Lamar Jackson's floor is Michael Vick.  His ceiling is UNIMAGINABLE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

I agree with you that his accuracy problems are horribly overstated, but this isn't right either. Especially in regards to Rosen. Rosen is pinpoint accurate. And Darnold is also more consistently accurate.

I wish there was a way we could all skype in and watch a game tape of Josh Allen so we could talk through a lot of these wildly differing takes.

Rosen doesn't throw as well on the run as Allen does so I'm giving him credit for that while also knocking Rosen.  And I give Rosen credit for not missing short screen passes while knocking Allen for missing a couple of those "easy" throws.  In the end, I think it evens out.  Allen gives you better accuracy on the "higher degree of difficulty throws" while Rosen does a better job not missing the "layups".

People sometimes make the mistake of limiting accuracy to just who doesn't miss an easy throw.  Sure Allen has missed the "easy" throw more than Rosen but not so much more often that his incredible throws on the run and down the field haven't more than made up for.  That's why I say overall they are equal in my eyes based on accuracy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, VanS said:

Lamar Jackson's floor is Michael Vick.  His ceiling is UNIMAGINABLE.

If his floor is MIchael Vick, then shouldn't he be the #1 player taken? If at the absolute worst, he'll be a superstar QB?

I don't think he's anywhere near Vick as a football player. He could become Vick, but to say his floor is Michael Vick seems crazy to me and I'm hoping 100% of other posters. Every player's floor should be low. Setting any player's floor to an NFL starter is an exaggeration of someone's ability. There have been a ton of failures that looked like locks. Lamar Jackson is extremely volatile as a prospect and he gets to have one of the best floors I've seen someone put out?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

This is pretty much exactly what I did. Expected to see an overrated QB missing easy throws way too often and putting his team in bad spots. I honestly called the police when I saw how poor the talent around him was. I filed a missing person's claim for all of their offensive players because according to their web site, they do have more than 1 offensive player on the roster. The Wyoming roster was hilariously bad. Even with that garbage roster, Josh Allen was able to display his immense talent. The dreaded Iowa game that I always hear about....I put that on and instead of being disappointed, it sold me on Allen as a franchise QB. His team had no chance, but Allen played pretty well in that game and showed the kind of elite physical traits that have teams salivating over him. It's a mistake to categorize him as a guy that gets pub because he's got a great arm. He's much more than that. The arm is his most impressive trait, but there are plenty of areas where he has shown to be NFL-quality.

The same people that hate Josh Allen are the same people that hated Cam Newton. And Cam's mental game was nowhere near Josh Allen's. I'd venture to say about the same amount of posters on here hated Cam then as they do Allen now. And there were more reasons to be concerned with Cam than there are with Allen. It's bizarre how people are harping on his one fundamental flaw (accuracy) and acting like the other QB's are flawless.

Agree 100% with everything you said. 

My only real hold up with Allen after seeing his tape was the intangibles.  Because that's half the game when it comes to being a great QB in the NFL.  Even if you have all the talent in the world (i.e. JaMarcus Russell), if your intangibles are piss poor, you're gonna be a bust in the NFL.  Thus far I've been impressed with Josh Allen's intangibles.  He scored the best on the wonderlic so intelligence should not be an issue for him.  From all the interviews I've seen and based on what people in the know are saying, he seems like a very driven confident young man.  He might not show it like Baker Mayfield, but I think he also plays with a huge chip on his shoulder because of the whole 0-star not getting any offers out of high school thing. 

I finding almost nothing to not like about this kid as a prospect.  I'm at the point now where I'll be shocked if he isn't at the very least a very solid starting QB in the NFL for the next 10 years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, BleedTheClock said:

If his floor is MIchael Vick, then shouldn't he be the #1 player taken? If at the absolute worst, he'll be a superstar QB?

I don't think he's anywhere near Vick as a football player. He could become Vick, but to say his floor is Michael Vick seems crazy to me and I'm hoping 100% of other posters. Every player's floor should be low. Setting any player's floor to an NFL starter is an exaggeration of someone's ability. There have been a ton of failures that looked like locks. Lamar Jackson is extremely volatile as a prospect and he gets to have one of the best floors I've seen someone put out?

I've been on the record saying he should very much be in the conversation for the #1 overall pick.  And while I think a guy with Michael Vick's career is definitely worthy of the #1 overall pick, some might disagree.  Vick did not exactly set the world on fire as a passer while he was at Atlanta.  Also many people are skeptical about whether a QB who is primarily a runner can lead a team to the Super Bowl.  And you also have to consider the injury risk.  Michael Vick displayed remarkable durability.  And Lamar Jackson has displayed similar durability despite running so much in college.  But its not a given he will be as durable in the NFL as Michael Vick proved to be.

When I say Vick is his floor, I mean in terms of TALENT not in terms of RESULTS.  Its possible his career isn't as good as Michael Vick because of injuries or other issues.  However, I feel very strongly that as a talent, I can't see him being any worse than Vick was at Atlanta.  As a runner, they are remarkable similar.  And as passers, despite Vick having the stronger arm, I think they are also similar with Lamar actually having better passing instincts.  While Vick almost always looked to run at the first opportunity, I've seen Lamar sit back in the pocket for far longer buying time for receivers to get open and then hitting them for big throws down the field.

I'm not saying Lamar Jackson is a sure thing as a passer.  He's the one with accuracy issues that must be resolved with improved footwork.  But as a passer and runner he's remarkably similar to Michael Vick.  And I see no reason why he can't have success that is similar.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, VanS said:

Nah.  I liked Mahomes last year but Josh Allen is a much better prospect.  Mahomes doesn't have Josh Allen's size, arm strength, athleticism, or intangibles.  Josh Allen is nearly 3 inches taller, his hands are nearly 1 inch larger, and he's more than 10 lbs heavier.  And yet, despite the much larger frame, Josh Allen is the more explosive athlete.  He tested better in the 40 yard dash, vertical jump, and broad jump than Patrick Mahomes.  The only athletic testing Mahomes bested Allen in was the 3-cone (barely) and the short shuttle.  When it came to arm strength, Josh Allen threw the ball harder according to the combine MPH numbers.  Now that may not be totally accurate but I've heard many respected football minds say Josh Allen has the strongest arm they've ever seen.  And finally in terms of intangibles, Josh Allen scored much higher on the wonderlic.

Josh Allen is similar to Mahomes only in terms of arm strength.  And even then Josh Allen bests him.  When you look at both prospects overall, Josh Allen is the much better prospect IMO.

Time will tell on that. I think Allen is a lot more stiff as an athlete, and isn't better accuracy wise even with the different offenses.

My Comp for Allen is an athletic Nick Foles.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He has the highest upside, but I don't think it's likely he reaches his full potential, he reminds me way too much of a Osweiler or Mallet. Just a big guy with a big arm, not good at reading defenses and not accurate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.




×
×
  • Create New...