Teen Girl Squad Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 I can't buy the bad talent around him argument. His advanced comp% metrics, even factoring in drops, are historically bad (for NFL QB prospects). I believe that accuracy is more innate than many draftniks do and don't care that much about mechanics (they can be tweaked, improved etc... but almost no QB has successfully be overhauled into a great starter) so I am biased in that way. Its why I'm not worried about Darnold's mechanics. His throws are consistent and accurate and he only needs a few tweaks to cut back on the fumblitis. Allen truly does have a generational rocket launcher tied to him but I see an inaccurate thrower with little touch, anticipation or nuance to his game. Not a big fan of drafting a player high on the basis that "if he just learns how to play QB good he'll be a great pick." That said, I can understand why other will like him. He really does leap out at times via the eye test. I don't think he'll hit in the league (but I hope I'm wrong, I want more good QBs, not fewer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nastradamus Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Worst final season off target pass % among recent top QB prospects... Allen - 16.4 Kizer 14.5 Driskel 14.4 Cook 13.5 Hack 13.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brownie man Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 2 hours ago, BleedTheClock said: @brownie man so you're telling me that if Josh Allen were available in round 6, you aren't taking him? lmao man I forgot I did that hahah nah man early 3rd round would be the right value for him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VanS Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 34 minutes ago, Nastradamus said: Worst final season off target pass % among recent top QB prospects... Allen - 16.4 Kizer 14.5 Driskel 14.4 Cook 13.5 Hack 13.4 Does this stat break it down based on throw distance? Because that matters. If one guy is consistently throwing more passes down the field than others, he's going to have more passes that are off target even if he's the most accurate passer in the group given the higher degree of difficulty deep throws inherently have versus throws near the line of scrimmage. Based on the film I watched, Josh Allen rarely threw screen passes or other short passes near the line of scrimmage. Especially compared to Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold whose offensive schemes called for significantly more screen passes and short passes than Josh Allen's offense. I would like to see a stat that broke down what percentage of Josh Allen's passes were at the line of scrimmage or within 5 yards compared to the other prospects in this class. I'm guessing his "short" throws were far less. Which would factor into why his completion percentage was so low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 44 minutes ago, Teen Girl Squad said: I can't buy the bad talent around him argument. His advanced comp% metrics, even factoring in drops, are historically bad (for NFL QB prospects). I believe that accuracy is more innate than many draftniks do and don't care that much about mechanics (they can be tweaked, improved etc... but almost no QB has successfully be overhauled into a great starter) so I am biased in that way. Its why I'm not worried about Darnold's mechanics. His throws are consistent and accurate and he only needs a few tweaks to cut back on the fumblitis. Allen truly does have a generational rocket launcher tied to him but I see an inaccurate thrower with little touch, anticipation or nuance to his game. Not a big fan of drafting a player high on the basis that "if he just learns how to play QB good he'll be a great pick." That said, I can understand why other will like him. He really does leap out at times via the eye test. I don't think he'll hit in the league (but I hope I'm wrong, I want more good QBs, not fewer). It's a double edged sword...people like to use it to justify poor play, but don't account for the flip side which is that you're typically not playing against monster teams either. A guy like Jay Cutler had a much better claim to use this argument (playing at Vandy in the SEC). That being said, the one area where it absolutely matters is with regards to pressure. The last I checked (I didn't see the final numbers, I don't know if someone has access to them and can post), Allen was under pressure more than any of the other top quarterbacks in this draft. Like I said, don't know where that finished (I think the numbers I saw were only about halfway through the season) but we do know that if there's anything that can drastically affect the way a quarterback plays, it's defensive pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teen Girl Squad Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Forge said: It's a double edged sword...people like to use it to justify poor play, but don't account for the flip side which is that you're typically not playing against monster teams either. A guy like Jay Cutler had a much better claim to use this argument (playing at Vandy in the SEC). That being said, the one area where it absolutely matters is with regards to pressure. The last I checked (I didn't see the final numbers, I don't know if someone has access to them and can post), Allen was under pressure more than any of the other top quarterbacks in this draft. Like I said, don't know where that finished (I think the numbers I saw were only about halfway through the season) but we do know that if there's anything that can drastically affect the way a quarterback plays, it's defensive pressure. Even then, we've had top prospects, like Jared Goff, who legitimately might have played behind the worst offensive line in D1 football while at Cal still play well against better comp despite that handicap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, Teen Girl Squad said: Even then, we've had top prospects, like Jared Goff, who legitimately might have played behind the worst offensive line in D1 football while at Cal still play well against better comp despite that handicap. I'd be curious on pressure comparisons, but I don't think that's anything we have. Definitely have been others who have dealt with the pressure that Allen has in previous drafts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedTheClock Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 3 hours ago, Teen Girl Squad said: I can't buy the bad talent around him argument. His advanced comp% metrics, even factoring in drops, are historically bad (for NFL QB prospects). I believe that accuracy is more innate than many draftniks do and don't care that much about mechanics (they can be tweaked, improved etc... but almost no QB has successfully be overhauled into a great starter) so I am biased in that way. Its why I'm not worried about Darnold's mechanics. His throws are consistent and accurate and he only needs a few tweaks to cut back on the fumblitis. Allen truly does have a generational rocket launcher tied to him but I see an inaccurate thrower with little touch, anticipation or nuance to his game. Not a big fan of drafting a player high on the basis that "if he just learns how to play QB good he'll be a great pick." That said, I can understand why other will like him. He really does leap out at times via the eye test. I don't think he'll hit in the league (but I hope I'm wrong, I want more good QBs, not fewer). You realize WR's have to get open to receive the football, right? It's not about drops. It's about the fact that his WR's are blanketed and that his offensive scheme doesn't see zones for little baby checkdown throws. He doesn't need to learn how to play QB. He does that just fine. He needs to make minor tweaks in his footwork consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedTheClock Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 2 hours ago, VanS said: I would like to see a stat that broke down what percentage of Josh Allen's passes were at the line of scrimmage or within 5 yards compared to the other prospects in this class. I'm guessing his "short" throws were far less. Which would factor into why his completion percentage was so low. But that doesn't fit the narrative people are trying to establish. They'd rather spew out stats than spend the time actually watching an hour or two of game tape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedTheClock Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 56 minutes ago, Forge said: Definitely have been others who have dealt with the pressure that Allen has in previous drafts though. mmmmm I'm not so sure about this one. I can't ever remember a QB being under fire so often. It's like every snap he's running for his life both as the interior and exterior pocket close in around him in under 2 seconds time. Darnold's OL is usually getting crushed too, but it's not nearly as bad as Wyoming's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Just now, BleedTheClock said: mmmmm I'm not so sure about this one. I can't ever remember a QB being under fire so often. It's like every snap he's running for his life both as the interior and exterior pocket close in around him in under 2 seconds time. Darnold's OL is usually getting crushed too, but it's not nearly as bad as Wyoming's. I would agree, but again, I'd bring Jay Cutler up immediately. I really would need to see some pressure rates to know for sure though for a lot of these comps. I mean, Goff played in an air raid system, so I don't know that what's going on there would ever be as bad as what Allen dealt with, but others would have a claim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedTheClock Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Teen Girl Squad said: Even then, we've had top prospects, like Jared Goff, who legitimately might have played behind the worst offensive line in D1 football while at Cal still play well against better comp despite that handicap. Jared Goff played in a spread scheme with a much more talented cast around him. He threw multiple underneath screens in college which helped his completion percentage as well as helped slow the rush down. And FWIW, Jared Goff was one of my all-time favorite QB prospects so I'm being unfair to try and compare everyone to Goff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedTheClock Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Forge said: I would agree, but again, I'd bring Jay Cutler up immediately. Honestly I didn't watch much Cutler at Vandy. You might be right...not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said: Honestly I didn't watch much Cutler at Vandy. You might be right...not sure. You think he was born with that personality? It gotten beaten into him at college Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfishwars Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 PFF perspective: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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