Josh Allen

[LaserFocus]

15 hours ago, Forge said:

He's a high risk / reward first round prospect. I have no issues with a team taking him in the top 5. The talent is there. People act like he's a crazy project - I don't really see him that way. For me it all comes down to the accuracy. Can he be accurate enough to succeed at the next level. Would I take him in the top 5? Meh...I had a second on him last year, and he really didn't do anything to improve that. I get the need to reach for quarterbacks, so that alone would put him in the necessary top round even based on my grade. In this draft, where I don't truly love the top end talent in a lot of places, I understand the impetus for doing it in the top 5. 

Agree about the high risk/high reward part, but the inexperience is a red flag for me. More experienced than  Mitch Trubisky, but that's not saying much, and the jury is out on whether Trubisky will develop into the player the Bears drafted him to be. A top five pick must have more than measurables, and this isn't Ben Roethlisberger we're talking about. Big Ben had considerably more college experience, and that's always valuable at the QB position. Quite honestly, I think all five of the top QBs coming out could be busts.     

[VanS]

11 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

A lot of the stuff on Allen is overblown either side of the debate, but this is what I wrote up on him (got him ranked 25th):-

Everything about him physically is about perfect, he’s a straight out the lab quarterback with not just a rare arm – perhaps even a generational arm without wanting to get into hyperbole. It's the kind of arm which creates space on the field and puts you at an immediate tactical advantage. He’s had a dream draft season, hitting every checkpoint in a process which is set-up for him to succeed and he's more than succeeded. From everything you hear about him, he's very smart and quick to learn and the film has enough flash points where you can point to those tools that get everyone excited.

Yet despite playing in an NFL friendly system, he’s not been good enough in areas that really matter:- decision making, footwork, throwing with anticipation, raising his game against tougher opposition, pocket presence, forcing plays, hitting his second/third reads with accuracy. Some of that stuff can be cleaned up with good coaching, some of it rarely (if ever) gets better in the pros. So if you expect him to become a well-rounded thrower at the next level, you've got to bank on him being somewhat of an anomaly or learn to live with the downside. Pointing to a poor supporting cast is fair, but that can only excuse him to a point because the counterpoints are obvious. Aren't good quarterbacks supposed to raise the play of those around him? Was he playing against superstar studded defenses every week in the Mountain West? His receivers might have been poor, but if you're looking at drop rate % to provide answers, you'll be disappointed because it was lower than every other top QB coming out this year.  

Landing on an unstable franchise could be particularly damaging to his development, but his trajectory is pointing upwards and he's a tantalizing physical project if the right team can get to him. 

This sounds like a whole lot of theorizing.  Why not just watch him play and then determine whether the poor stats are his fault or the players around him?

I've watched his allegedly bad game against Iowa and came away impressed.  He made some bad throws late in the 4th quarter trying to force a comeback but early on he was incredible.  Had a great TD pass dropped by his receiver.  Had some incredible scrambles where he should have lost 20 yards to a sack only to find a way out and get back to the line of scrimmage or fire it downfield for a completion.

Just watch the tape and decide whether or not it was him not raising their level of play.  All I know is, when I saw his tape it was very clear.   This guy is an incredible QB with unlimited talent.  I have no reservations about him developing into a star in the NFL.  He's the #1 overall pick in my eyes.  And its not even close.

[VanS]

9 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

How many times do we have to hear this? Like i get the physical specimen stuff but dont way more of those types flop? Guys that have accuracy issues rarely improve on them in the pros when defenses are faster and more complex. 

 

ET I'm just referencing your tools comment not the other stuff. 

That would be a great point if Josh Allen did in fact have accuracy issues.  But he doesn't.  Stop relying on what others say or the box score.  Watch the games for yourself and then come back to me and tell me about these "accuracy issues".

Josh Allen does NOT have accuracy issues.  PERIOD.  I'm sick of this myth being continually propagated.

[VanS]

7 hours ago, Aztec Hammer said:

All-Mountain West Conference Honourable  Mention.

56%

I’ll take the field against Josh Allen.

That's not a smart way of evaluating players.  Just going off awards or stats from college.  Go back and look up Alvin Kamara's stats and awards while at Tennessee?  He never even led his own team in rushing during his two years there and was never even honorable mention for any post-season conference award.  And yet he comes into the NFL and wins Offensive Rookie of the Year having production worthy enough to be 2nd Team All-Pro as a rookie.

When projecting players from college to the NFL the thing to look at are TRAITS not their college stats or awards they may have won.  That's how you miss on guys like Alvin Kamara. 

[VanS]

6 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

Man there are some big-time haters on here. Every QB prospect has flaws. Josh Allen is hated on because it's cool to hate him methinks. Everyone gets drafted because of their traits. Flaws are overlooked at every single position because nobody is perfect.

And a lot of these big-armed QB's that failed in the NFL came from spread systems, had long exaggerated deliveries, had issues reading a defense, and created a ton of turnovers. They also player with more talented players. Literally all of them. Because Wyoming is as bad of a D1 program as you'll find. People just don't want to like Josh Allen. They cite his completion percentage but don't take into context why it was so low. Accuracy isn't great on Allen, for sure. But it's not as bad as the numbers would lead people to believe. He doesn't get to take easy completions all game long on checkdowns and screens. He's driving the football down the field off of play action 90% of the time. Also, his WR's aren't ever open. He has the least talented WR group on the planet and he's constantly scanning the field frantically looking for someone to get free. For a dude that buys as much time as he does running around and extending plays, the fact that his WR's can't win in that amount of time is pathetic. If you put any of the other top 3 QB's at Wyoming I think the narrative would be similar on them as well. Context, people.

He's my #4 rated QB, but I'd be shocked if he fell out of the top 5. If I needed a QB, I'd have no problems taking him in the top 5. I wouldn't even throw something through the TV if my Browns took him #1 overall, although I do think Darnold is going to be better & safer.

I don't think its simply about personal dislike.  People in general don't actually watch the games they use stats as a shortcut.  So for most people its as simple as this.  The guy played a low level of football and forget about dominating it statistically, he didn't even perform well by the numbers.  So that's enough for most people to think he's not any good.  People just put too much faith into college numbers.  Its a major reason why in the reverse, there is so much love for Baker Mayfield.  He put up monster stats so people assume he's good.

I went into the Josh Allen tape with a high level of skepticism.  I was looking for flaws so I could come out against the people who were saying he was a top QB prospect.  I wanted to be part of the group that said he sucked or was overrated.  However, after watching him I simply couldn't do that.  I came away AMAZED by what he could do.

You know a guy is really good when you go into the analysis of his game looking for ways to knock him down but then he turns you into a huge fan.  That's what Josh Allen did to me.  I'm personally shocked when I hear that there are people who are still skeptical about him after watching his tape.  Even his supposedly bad games against teams like Iowa are largely incredible in my eyes.  He made 4-5 plays in that game that almost no other QB in the NFL could make.  This is a very special player IMO.

[goldfishwars]

44 minutes ago, VanS said:

That would be a great point if Josh Allen did in fact have accuracy issues.  But he doesn't.  Stop relying on what others say or the box score.  Watch the games for yourself and then come back to me and tell me about these "accuracy issues".

Josh Allen does NOT have accuracy issues.  PERIOD.  I'm sick of this myth being continually propagated.

How does that even work? What’s happening between his hand and the ball reaching the receiver that aren’t straight drops? He’s either an accurate passer or he isn’t, it’s not a difficult thing to measure. 

[goldfishwars]

48 minutes ago, VanS said:

This sounds like a whole lot of theorizing.  Why not just watch him play and then determine whether the poor stats are his fault or the players around him?

I've watched his allegedly bad game against Iowa and came away impressed.  He made some bad throws late in the 4th quarter trying to force a comeback but early on he was incredible.  Had a great TD pass dropped by his receiver.  Had some incredible scrambles where he should have lost 20 yards to a sack only to find a way out and get back to the line of scrimmage or fire it downfield for a completion.

Just watch the tape and decide whether or not it was him not raising their level of play.  All I know is, when I saw his tape it was very clear.   This guy is an incredible QB with unlimited talent.  I have no reservations about him developing into a star in the NFL.  He's the #1 overall pick in my eyes.  And its not even close.

I’ve watched him plenty thanks, but this deep dive analysis has really turned my opinion around. I can only apologise.

[Forge]

8 hours ago, Aztec Hammer said:

All-Mountain West Conference Honourable  Mention.

56%

I’ll take the field against Josh Allen.

If this is your entire stance on him, very myopic viewpoint in my opinion. I'm not sure if it is your entire stance, but it comes across that way in this post. 

[Aztec Hammer]

2 minutes ago, Forge said:

If this is your entire stance on him, very myopic viewpoint in my opinion. I'm not sure if it is your entire stance, but it comes across that way in this post. 

It’s not. I’ve written about him in the past, in more depth on my team’s forum section. Just didn’t have the time to rehash it all and felt the above was a simple summation of my thoughts, particularly that I don’t think his accuracy will stand up in the pros.

He’s my third ranked QB, but unfortunately I only think there are two that will see sustained success in the NFL.

[Forge]

1 minute ago, Aztec Hammer said:

It’s not. I’ve written about him in the past, in more depth on my team’s forum section. Just didn’t have the time to rehash it all and felt the above was a simple summation of my thoughts, particularly that I don’t think his accuracy will stand up in the pros.

He’s my third ranked QB, but unfortunately I only think there are two that will see sustained success in the NFL.

Fair enough. I totally get that. And I wasn't trying attack or anything...just letting you know how it came across (which you may not care about, which is also fair LOL). 

[Chwf3rd25]

1 hour ago, VanS said:

I've watched his allegedly bad game against Iowa and came away impressed.  He made some bad throws late in the 4th quarter trying to force a comeback but early on he was incredible.  Had a great TD pass dropped by his receiver.  Had some incredible scrambles where he should have lost 20 yards to a sack only to find a way out and get back to the line of scrimmage or fire it downfield for a completion.

I’m not a big Allen fan but I think this is an important point and I came to the same conclusion after watching Iowa.  A lot of his mistakes/INTs/poor decisions came when he was trying to force balls in games where Wyoming was down and needed to put up points.  Still not great decisions but I think they’re a little more excusable.

 

1 hour ago, VanS said:

I don't think its simply about personal dislike.  People in general don't actually watch the games they use stats as a shortcut.  So for most people its as simple as this.  The guy played a low level of football and forget about dominating it statistically, he didn't even perform well by the numbers.  So that's enough for most people to think he's not any good.  People just put too much faith into college numbers.  Its a major reason why in the reverse, there is so much love for Baker Mayfield.  He put up monster stats so people assume he's good.

I think you’re discounting this a little too much.  College stats don’t matter unless they have a demonstrated correlation with NFL success.  Same thing with certain height/weight/speed requirements and that’s why lots of teams have firm cut offs because they know scouting is an inexact science and these measurements have a proven correlation to future success.  I don’t have the numbers in front of me but the QBs with Allen’s production profile have a very poor track record and I don’t think that should be dismissed so easily.

[Forge]

12 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

A lot of the stuff on Allen is overblown either side of the debate, but this is what I wrote up on him (got him ranked 25th):-

Everything about him physically is about perfect, he’s a straight out the lab quarterback with not just a rare arm – perhaps even a generational arm without wanting to get into hyperbole. It's the kind of arm which creates space on the field and puts you at an immediate tactical advantage. He’s had a dream draft season, hitting every checkpoint in a process which is set-up for him to succeed and he's more than succeeded. From everything you hear about him, he's very smart and quick to learn and the film has enough flash points where you can point to those tools that get everyone excited.

Yet despite playing in an NFL friendly system, he’s not been good enough in areas that really matter:- decision making, footwork, throwing with anticipation, raising his game against tougher opposition, pocket presence, forcing plays, hitting his second/third reads with accuracy. Some of that stuff can be cleaned up with good coaching, some of it rarely (if ever) gets better in the pros. So if you expect him to become a well-rounded thrower at the next level, you've got to bank on him being somewhat of an anomaly or learn to live with the downside. Pointing to a poor supporting cast is fair, but that can only excuse him to a point because the counterpoints are obvious. Aren't good quarterbacks supposed to raise the play of those around him? Was he playing against superstar studded defenses every week in the Mountain West? His receivers might have been poor, but if you're looking at drop rate % to provide answers, you'll be disappointed because it was lower than every other top QB coming out this year.  

Landing on an unstable franchise could be particularly damaging to his development, but his trajectory is pointing upwards and he's a tantalizing physical project if the right team can get to him. 

This is a pretty fair write up, goldfish. I agree with a lot, disagree with some, and would add caveats for others. But very solid. 

[candyman93]

I like the comparisons to Matthew Stafford.

[BrownLeader]

13 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

Man there are some big-time haters on here. Every QB prospect has flaws. Josh Allen is hated on because it's cool to hate him methinks. Everyone gets drafted because of their traits. Flaws are overlooked at every single position because nobody is perfect.

And a lot of these big-armed QB's that failed in the NFL came from spread systems, had long exaggerated deliveries, had issues reading a defense, and created a ton of turnovers. They also player with more talented players. Literally all of them. Because Wyoming is as bad of a D1 program as you'll find. People just don't want to like Josh Allen. They cite his completion percentage but don't take into context why it was so low. Accuracy isn't great on Allen, for sure. But it's not as bad as the numbers would lead people to believe. He doesn't get to take easy completions all game long on checkdowns and screens. He's driving the football down the field off of play action 90% of the time. Also, his WR's aren't ever open. He has the least talented WR group on the planet and he's constantly scanning the field frantically looking for someone to get free. For a dude that buys as much time as he does running around and extending plays, the fact that his WR's can't win in that amount of time is pathetic. If you put any of the other top 3 QB's at Wyoming I think the narrative would be similar on them as well. Context, people.

 

He's my #4 rated QB, but I'd be shocked if he fell out of the top 5. If I needed a QB, I'd have no problems taking him in the top 5. I wouldn't even throw something through the TV if my Browns took him #1 overall, although I do think Darnold is going to be better & safer.

Interesting you mention people just don't want to like him. I think the very reason he's being considered as a #1overall or top 5 is because teams are just liking him. 

He must be winning in interviews and the white board because his film doesn't show a very good QB. It doesn't show a terrible one either but nothing there dictates where his draft stock is at.

Through the roof tools will get you drafted high but there's been plenty tools projects that aren't considered #1 overall picks.

The accuracy % is a little overblown...I think the issue is the inconsistent accuracy. And that has nothing to do with his level of competition or cast. He consistently throws WTH balls. One of the reasons he's not throwing underneath stuff was that his touch was bad on those throws. 

He stares down targets. He lacks anticipation. He clearly favors his right. He doesn't protect himself on scrambles and runs and he's got a surgically repaired shoulder. When he started throwing bad in a game, it almost always got worse. He wasn't one to work out of a bad stretch...he caved.

I think what's happening is he's smart and he's selling himself really well to teams. Hes got a good football IQ and he's self critical. With his generational skill set, that has a lot of teams sold. They think they're getting another Wentz.

There's probably also a storybook or cultural component. The guy was raised on a freaking farm, is smart, has rare size/speed and has one of the biggest arms ever. That's irresistible to an old school football guy.

[DirtyDez]

If BA was still around he’d pull a Mike Ditka for this guy.