Packers Big Board #7

[Packerraymond]

Minkah gets #6, who is #7?

1 - Bradley Chubb [DE; NC State]

#2 - Saquon Barkley [RB; Penn State]

#3 - Denzel Ward [CB; Ohio State]

#4 - Derwin James [S; Florida State]

#5 - Tremaine Edmunds [LB; Virginia Tech]

#6 - Minkah Fitzpatrick [DB; Alabama]

[Packerraymond]

For me it's Marcus Davenport. He's my BPA at the non QB/OG position on my board.

These guys are most likely to be around at our pick, anyone from the top 6 so far would be surprising. If you add the 4 QBs and Nelson we're at about pick 12 now.

[MantyWrestler]

2 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

For me it's Marcus Davenport. He's my BPA at the non QB/OG position on my board.

These guys are most likely to be around at our pick, anyone from the top 6 so far would be surprising. If you add the 4 QBs and Nelson we're at about pick 12 now.

Davenport. 

On a side note, there is a mathematical stat/theory where by the more people who place a guess on a question the closer you get to the correct answer although I’m not sure what it’s called. Example: Show people a large jar of jelly beans. If 5 people guess the amount inside, anyone can be correct and may be closer than the average but if enough people guess the average will always be close to the correct answer. One or 2 may be correct or close BUT the average gets closer to correct with the more people who make a guess. Say 100,000 people guess and they average out to 1500, statistical chances are that is super close to correct.

[pgwingman]

6 hours ago, MantyWrestler said:

Davenport. 

On a side note, there is a mathematical stat/theory where by the more people who place a guess on a question the closer you get to the correct answer although I’m not sure what it’s called. Example: Show people a large jar of jelly beans. If 5 people guess the amount inside, anyone can be correct and may be closer than the average but if enough people guess the average will always be close to the correct answer. One or 2 may be correct or close BUT the average gets closer to correct with the more people who make a guess. Say 100,000 people guess and they average out to 1500, statistical chances are that is super close to correct.

Interesting. I hang around this forum for the mathematics, but i stay for the draft discussion

[Leader]

6 hours ago, MantyWrestler said:

Davenport. 

On a side note, there is a mathematical stat/theory where by the more people who place a guess on a question the closer you get to the correct answer although I’m not sure what it’s called. Example: Show people a large jar of jelly beans. If 5 people guess the amount inside, anyone can be correct and may be closer than the average but if enough people guess the average will always be close to the correct answer. One or 2 may be correct or close BUT the average gets closer to correct with the more people who make a guess. Say 100,000 people guess and they average out to 1500, statistical chances are that is super close to correct.

Here it is.

We draft Davenport, his nickname is Jelly Bean.

[Gopackgonerd]

Davenport>Landry, he's just so much better against the run than Landry. He's so strong, and fast for his size. I like his nastiness too, he can hit ya.

[SpeightTheVillain]

6 hours ago, MantyWrestler said:

Davenport. 

On a side note, there is a mathematical stat/theory where by the more people who place a guess on a question the closer you get to the correct answer although I’m not sure what it’s called. Example: Show people a large jar of jelly beans. If 5 people guess the amount inside, anyone can be correct and may be closer than the average but if enough people guess the average will always be close to the correct answer. One or 2 may be correct or close BUT the average gets closer to correct with the more people who make a guess. Say 100,000 people guess and they average out to 1500, statistical chances are that is super close to correct.

Wisdom of the Crowd

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd

[vegas492]

I think it is Nelson.  Talking about a kid here who could be a generational type talent.  And I think he can do it at RT as well as RG.  Play him at guard for a year, transition him to RT when Bulaga gets his next and last injury.

[Packerraymond]

There's no way in hell I can take Nelson the way the roster stands. If we kept Randall and the Bears let us have Fuller maybe. Now? You're looking at absolutely having to take an EDGE/CB with that 2nd round pick and the other won't be addressed until the 3rd at best. No way I can take Nelson with Landry, Davenport or LVE on the board.

[SpeightTheVillain]

1 hour ago, vegas492 said:

I think it is Nelson.  Talking about a kid here who could be a generational type talent.  And I think he can do it at RT as well as RG.  Play him at guard for a year, transition him to RT when Bulaga gets his next and last injury.

Not totally convinced of this. And in no universe am I taking a guard in the first round much less in the top 15. Especially with the needs we have on D

[vegas492]

1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

There's no way in hell I can take Nelson the way the roster stands. If we kept Randall and the Bears let us have Fuller maybe. Now? You're looking at absolutely having to take an EDGE/CB with that 2nd round pick and the other won't be addressed until the 3rd at best. No way I can take Nelson with Landry, Davenport or LVE on the board.

I'm looking at it as he's the best player available.  Not saying anything against those other guys, but I think Nelson is flat out a better football player, regardless of position.

I get where you are coming from, and I won't fight you on it, as there is a clear need at EDGE and corner.

I just think Nelson solidifies a lot of things with almost no risk whatsoever.  

[Packerraymond]

2 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

I'm looking at it as he's the best player available.  Not saying anything against those other guys, but I think Nelson is flat out a better football player, regardless of position.

I get where you are coming from, and I won't fight you on it, as there is a clear need at EDGE and corner.

I just think Nelson solidifies a lot of things with almost no risk whatsoever.  

Nelson is the best guard I've evaluated, he's much better than Cooper and Martin and I was too young to evaluate Hutchinson.

That said when I do a big board the last thing I do is a positional multiplier. IOL, RBs and pure 2 down ILBs get a .9 multiplier from their final grade. This rates Nelson down on my board.

EDGE, CB and QB get a 1.1.

[Shanedorf]

17 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

This rates Nelson down on my board.

 

That's certainly been true in the past, but I'm not certain its going to be that way going forward. With the time-to-throw continuing to drop each year...there's a greater value on the interior rushers. They can get there sooner and they are in the QBs face.

If you look at the teams that are threats to GB in the NFC, the Rams, the Eagles and the vikes have all invested heavily on the DL and especially on the interior DL. Fletcher Cox, Donald and Suh, Richardson/Joseph as FA's to minny. The old style NT/DT space eaters ( Gilbert Brown) are done and in their place is the next generation of DL who can play the run AND push the pocket consistently. 

The NFL evolves and there's at least a  possibility that the OGs aren't as devalued as they were in the past.

[Packerraymond]

14 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

That's certainly been true in the past, but I'm not certain its going to be that way going forward. With the time-to-throw continuing to drop each year...there's a greater value on the interior rushers. They can get there sooner and they are in the QBs face.

If you look at the teams that are threats to GB in the NFC, the Rams, the Eagles and the vikes have all invested heavily on the DL and especially on the interior DL. Fletcher Cox, Donald and Suh, Richardson/Joseph as FA's to minny. The old style NT/DT space eaters ( Gilbert Brown) are done and in their place is the next generation of DL who can play the run AND push the pocket consistently. 

The NFL evolves and there's at least a  possibility that the OGs aren't as devalued as they were in the past.

There's always been freaky interior pass rushers. John Randle, Warren Sapp and Robert Porcher were just the guys Favre had to deal with in the NFCN.

Fact is you can help a guard much easier than a tackle and that's why they don't have the same value.

[Gopackgonerd]

 CB, OLB, WR, S, all are bigger needs than Guard rn. We can find one in the 3rd/4th/5th and be fine there with our track record. McCray  played well at Guard last year when called upon too for insurance. Suh Donald etc. are scary to play against but, so are big time WRs that have carved up our defense for years.