Packers Big Board #9

[MacReady]

Just now, ArthurPensky said:

Yeah, and QB wasn't the biggest need in 2005.

It's a valid point rendered invalid when you compare the QB position to the Guard position. 

[MacReady]

Just now, packerrfan74 said:

And guard.  So he wasn't technically converted to a guard.

Touché.  That's one.  I'll give you Hannah.  As with everything, there's always an exception.  A consensus top 3 guard of all time was worth a top 20 pick.  The consensus best receiver of all time was worth a top 20 pick.  You'll be hard pressed to find more. 

Now the question is... Can you tell me for certain that Nelson will be a top 3 guard all time, or even top 3 for the next ten years while also telling me that a pass rusher, DB or even ILB WON'T be?

I just really, really, really, really, really, really hate when people say a prospect is can't miss.  Can't miss prospects miss more often than prospects people question.  Jonathan Cooper and Chance Warmack were both can't miss guys. 

[vegas492]

55 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

Okay... @ArthurPensky, @vegas492, did you just vote for Nelson to incite a meltdown out of me?  I'm not going to give you what you want.  If you really believe that, that's fine.  You're wrong, but it's still your right to believe that. 

I would ask you the following:

1. Name one guard taken in the top 15 that turned out to have been worth it.
2. Name three guards taken in the first round that even got a second contract from the team that drafted them. 

College tackles converted to guard don't count. 

 

29 minutes ago, ArthurPensky said:

I definitely don't prefer OL at 14. But this is about BPA for me and I think that's Nelson. I also don't think he can just play guard. From what I've read many think he's a player that can play all along the line.

Gotcha HZ.  Totally.  And you know what?  I agree with you.

The best GM's hit about 50-55% of the time in the first round.  I did a quick search the other day...corners and Wr's taken top 15 since 2012.  Each has a bust rate of 50% or greater.

So, when you draft in the top 15, nothing is guaranteed.

When I looked at the list of players, I saw one guy who quite frankly has the lowest floor of any player I've seen in quite some time.  And I see a guy who has the ability to flip out and play right tackle.

I look at the roster and see no heir apparent to RG for this year...and the future at RT is kind of sketchy.  I think Nelson solidifies the line, adds a lot of value to the running game and will keep Aaron upright, at guard or tackle.

You get hung up on the guard label and the second contract.  And you know what?  You are right.  Guards can get covered up and helped.  You don't want to pay guards tackle money.  You cite second contracts....but look at it this way...how many guards in the league sign large second contracts?  Plenty.  Gb is a great example of that.  They paid Sitton and Lang top dollar for a while.  They paid College good money at guard.  Looking back at it, Wahle got paid a lot, so did Rivera.  GB has a history of paying guards.  So I don't get caught up, totally, in the second contract argument.  I do get caught up in the argument for helping out the running game and keeping Aaron upright.

If the board falls that way, Nelson is BPA and it is an area of need.  Kirwan talked about this yesterday.  You don't always take your biggest need in round one.

I'm going to be very, very surprised if Nelson is on the board when GB picks.  

[Cheesehawk]

4 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

Touché.  That's one.  I'll give you Hannah.  As with everything, there's always an exception.  A consensus top 3 guard of all time was worth a top 20 pick.  The consensus best receiver of all time was worth a top 20 pick.  You'll be hard pressed to find more. 

Now the question is... Can you tell me for certain that Nelson will be a top 3 guard all time, or even top 3 for the next ten years while also telling me that a pass rusher, DB or even ILB WON'T be?

I just really, really, really, really, really, really hate when people say a prospect is can't miss.  Can't miss prospects miss more often than prospects people question.  Jonathan Cooper and Chance Warmack were both can't miss guys. 

Absolutely not. No player is a sure thing. Like you said, it's been proven over and over again. I'm with you though, way more pressing needs than a guard with our highest draft position in years.

[vegas492]

Decastro was the 24'th pick.  Not top 15, but first round.  3 Pro Bowls, 2 X All Pro first team, 1 X All Pro second team.  Started 81 games.  That's some pretty solid production out of a round one guard.  He is one to watch for the future.

Scherff for the Redskins was drafted to play guard, he's turned out pretty good so far.  I'm expanding your argument to include guys who may have played tackle in college, but who were drafted to play guard, despite what they did in college.  Fact is, he was a highly drafted player who plays guard.  2 X Pro Bowler in his first two years.  he is one to watch as well.

Your points are well taken, though.

[Cheesehawk]

Just now, vegas492 said:

Decastro was the 24'th pick.  Not top 15, but first round.  3 Pro Bowls, 2 X All Pro first team, 1 X All Pro second team.  Started 81 games.  That's some pretty solid production out of a round one guard.  He is one to watch for the future.

Scherff for the Redskins was drafted to play guard, he's turned out pretty good so far.  I'm expanding your argument to include guys who may have played tackle in college, but who were drafted to play guard, despite what they did in college.  Fact is, he was a highly drafted player who plays guard.  2 X Pro Bowler in his first two years.  he is one to watch as well.

Your points are well taken, though.

Pretty certain the Redskins drafted Scherff with every intent of him playing tackle.

[vegas492]

10 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

Touché.  That's one.  I'll give you Hannah.  As with everything, there's always an exception.  A consensus top 3 guard of all time was worth a top 20 pick.  The consensus best receiver of all time was worth a top 20 pick.  You'll be hard pressed to find more. 

Now the question is... Can you tell me for certain that Nelson will be a top 3 guard all time, or even top 3 for the next ten years while also telling me that a pass rusher, DB or even ILB WON'T be?

I just really, really, really, really, really, really hate when people say a prospect is can't miss.  Can't miss prospects miss more often than prospects people question.  Jonathan Cooper and Chance Warmack were both can't miss guys. 

I can tell you that statistically, half the guys in the first round will bust or just be okay.

If looking specifically at Davenport, Landry, LVE, Nelson, I'd say that Nelson and LVE have better chances at hitting.  Davenport and Landry have more risk associated with them.

I think you can find guys like Davenport and Landry in a lot of drafts.  Developmental pass rushers.  I don't think you see a guard (or I'd argue RT) of Nelson's caliber all that often.

I don't know enough about LVE to really say if a guy like him is there most years, or not. 

And I hate that I'm arguing for a guard, because at the end of the day, I mostly do agree with you.

[Arthur Penske]

I hope the Packers take Nelson at 14 and a WR in the 2nd.

[vegas492]

1 minute ago, packerrfan74 said:

Pretty certain the Redskins drafted Scherff with every intent of him playing tackle.

From his Wiki page...Hard to say exactly what the Redskins thought.

Many scouts and analysts were conflicted over his future position in the NFL, split on whether he was better suited to play offensive tackle or guard.^[

He entered training camp competing with Morgan Moses for the starting right tackle position but was moved to right guard prior to the beginning of the regular season. Since he was able to handle bull rushes well, he was thought to better suit the right guard position and be responsible for a smaller area where his power would be more useful.^[24] Offensive line coach Bill Callahan named him the Redskin's starting right guard to begin the season, after winning the job over Spencer Long in the preseason

[vegas492]

1 minute ago, ArthurPensky said:

I hope the Packers take Nelson at 14 and a WR in the 2nd.

It's never wise to poke the bear. 

[vegas492]

1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

Stiffness is the least concern of mine when you watch him, and the Combine numbers reflect that. The Pro Day isn't like the Combine where it's the same drills every year. A lot of times you workout with your position coach and then NFL position coaches can put you through drills of their choice too. The "hoola hoop" drill as we called it when I was playing is a pass rusher drill. To me that tells me a lot of teams see LVE like most of us do, versatile player that can be like Clay and play both ILB and EDGE. Odds are he'd never done that drill before. 

However I disagree about wanting to see choppy feet in that drill. That drill is to mimic getting low and bending under an OT to the QB, you don't get to the QB with choppy steps. The best guys get their feet as far away from the circle as possible to show that hip flexion when they bend for the cone, the same flexion they'll need to fight off the OT while bending under them. It wasn't text book when I watched him but I doubt he did that drill in practice ever.

Now his vertical drop with the hip flips was insane. They say the more you stay on the line while flipping your hips the more fluid you are, damn near every step of his comes down on that line. Crazy.

Oh, yah, I'm quite familiar with that drill, seen it a few times, only not with a hula hoop.  More with pads in a circle.  Never participated, though.  I was the one those guys were usually trying to hit.

I thought he could have been a little gassed by the time that drill came around. I noted before what i didn't like...the long strides and how he wanted to get upright as quickly as possible...

Here is what I did like.  Balance.  Really good flexibility for a large man.   Very long wingspan.

I think we disagree on choppy steps versus long strides...I want my pass rushers to have quicker steps so that they can't be thrown off balance when only on one foot.  I do like your insight on the hoop representing the tackle and using the bend to get around.  Just me thinking here, that if asked, he could close that stride down.  He looks to have the bend to be able to do that.

I very much appreciate reading your insight on that drill and that player.

[Arthur Penske]

I"m not obsessed with him, but it seems weird Josh Jackson isn't on here based on how many people think he could be GB's pick.

[MacReady]

Just now, ArthurPensky said:

I hope the Packers take Nelson at 14 and a WR in the 2nd.

Except I have frequently praised taking a receiver in the second round, so I don't know why you think that second part would bother me.

And ten years from now once Nelson is a backup for some team that didn't draft him, you'll be thankful you didn't get that satisfaction of a person on the Internet you don't like getting upset at a draft pick. 

[Arthur Penske]

3 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

Except I have frequently praised taking a receiver in the second round, so I don't know why you think that second part would bother me.

And ten years from now once Nelson is a backup for some team that didn't draft him, you'll be thankful you didn't get that satisfaction of a person on the Internet you don't like getting upset at a draft pick. 

Didn't mention you. I'm talking Packer fans freaking out in general.

[Jaegybomb]

Does Hughes get bumped up because he's a return guy? He doesn't look that impressive.