Has there ever been a draft with this much QB Hype?

[Danger]

13 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

That's pretty accurate as a whole as well, especially in the #2 spot ever since the RGIII trade.

 

Just now, MWil23 said:

Hmmmm, funny, I think that the RGIII trade happened a few years before Wentz.

Say what you will, but were they wrong to do so? Worked out pretty well for them so far.

[Tugboat]

28 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

I would disagree with you there, because I think Darnold and Rosen are legit.

As for Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield, I would very much agree with you.

That's pretty accurate as a whole as well, especially in the #2 spot ever since the RGIII trade.

The key here is, you could reasonably argue what you're saying, about say...Mayfield and Allen being "legit" instaed, while the other two bust.  Or any combination or permutation of success/failure within that group.  They all have some starter traits, and some potentially fatal flaws that aren't all that hard to find.  This isn't over-analysis over too long a college career.  This is a guy who is too short coming out of a spread system, a guy who has concerning accuracy numbers, a guy who is a statue with a bit of an attitude and some weird decisionmaking wrinkles, and a guy with a totally janked up throwing motion and a heap of turnovers to go with it.  This isn't "can't miss" QB prospects.  It's guys with a lot of upside, but plenty of downside too.

 

It's a fun QB class.  But it's a scary one too.  It's going to make some careers, and break some as well.

[MWil23]

33 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

The key here is, you could reasonably argue what you're saying, about say...Mayfield and Allen being "legit" instaed, while the other two bust.  Or any combination or permutation of success/failure within that group.  They all have some starter traits, and some potentially fatal flaws that aren't all that hard to find.  This isn't over-analysis over too long a college career.  This is a guy who is too short coming out of a spread system, a guy who has concerning accuracy numbers, a guy who is a statue with a bit of an attitude and some weird decisionmaking wrinkles, and a guy with a totally janked up throwing motion and a heap of turnovers to go with it.  This isn't "can't miss" QB prospects.  It's guys with a lot of upside, but plenty of downside too.

 

It's a fun QB class.  But it's a scary one too.  It's going to make some careers, and break some as well.

...and like I said, the SAME stuff was said about both Goff and Wentz, not to mention a host of others.

Wentz was a guy who played/started in only 18 games in a 1AA program with a REALLY long release.

Goff was a guy who "couldn't win at Cal" and played in a gimmicky system.

Trubisky was a 1 year starter.

Watson was a "turnover prone spread QB who could only read half of the field at a time".

Jameis Winston was a turnover machine as a sophomore with major character issues/red flags.

Mariota was a Spread/running QB who didn't have a cannon for an arm.

[ronjon1990]

I would say that this is the most hyped class in terms of variety at QB in the last 20 years. Some classes had 1 or 2 really hyped prospects (Luck/Griffin, Goff/Wentz, Mariota/Winston) where one could argue that hype eclipsed the level in this class. But in a class with 4 QBs probably going in the top 10 with another later in the first, along with room for someone to take a QB late in the 1st that would probably be there in the 2nd, there is certainly hype being spread around.

In the first 4 rounds, I expect Rosen, Darnold, Allen, Mayfield, Jackson, Rudolph, Lauletta, Falk, Rudolph, and possibly someone like White or Benkert to all be off the board. 10 QB's in 4 rounds with another 4, possibly 5 developmental types in the later rounds. Roughly the same amount as the 2016 class (9 in the first 4, 15 total), but this class is much top heavier than that class. I can't remember the last time there were 5 legitimate 1st rounders in a class where none of them were considered a "reach" by the majority. I'd say that qualifies as a ton of hype. 

[VanS]

15 hours ago, Deekster37 said:

The 83 draft......I call it the 84 Draft......it's a old school thing! Was the best for so many years until now!!!!!!!! This is the highest and deepest hyped draft since 83...84! Although the 04 draft was solid just i think it was quality over quantity in that draft......everybody knew the  top 3 were guaranteed franchise QB'S!!!! Can't wait to see how this one works out 

Not true.  Eli Manning was the guy everyone thought would be a franchise QB.  Big Ben had questions surrounding him similar to Josh Allen given the level of competition.  And Phillip Rivers was really only viewed as a top 10 prospect by one team (the Chargers).  They coached him at the senior bowl and fell in love with him.  Before the senior bowl most teams had him as a late 1st round/2nd round caliber prospect.  And its unlikely he would have gone in the top 10 to anyone but the Chargers.  The Giants who actually picked him in the draft before trading him to the Chargers for Eli Manning didn't really value Phillip Rivers that highly at all.  The Giants GM was all-in on Manning and if he couldn't get Manning, he said in a documentary (Caught in the Draft) years later that he would have taken Big Ben over Phillip Rivers.  He only picked Rivers because he knew that is who the Chargers wanted if they were going to trade Eli Manning.

 

15 hours ago, Duke5217 said:

2004 with Eli Manning, Big Ben and Phillip Rivers was a super hyped QB draft I remember. This one is a little better because we have 5 guys who go in round #1. That hasn't happened since 1999. 

Some revisionist history going on here.  I actually remember the 2004 draft and the QB class was not as hyped as ya'll make it out to be.  I clearly remember it was Eli Manning and everyone else.  Eli was the guy who was getting most of the hype.  Some people were even saying he was better than Peyton (or at the very least more talented).  Big Ben had questions around him for being the small school guy.  And there was little to no hype for Phillip Rivers before the senior bowl.  Most people had him going late 1st or in the 2nd round before the senior bowl.  He upped his stock some after the senior bowl but its unlikely he would have gone in the top 10 of the draft to anyone but the Chargers.

The 2004 QB class was not getting crazy hype.  Eli Manning was.  He was sorta like Andrew Luck before Andrew Luck.  The 2004 draft was all about him.

[Kiwibrown]

6 hours ago, Jtownsfine5t said:

Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen and Baker Mayfield all have grades of at least 90 on Scouts Inc., the first time in 15 years that four QBs in same Draft grade that high: Scouts Inc. QB Grades, 2018 Darnold, USC 94 Allen, WYO 92 Rosen, UCLA 92 Mayfield, OKLA 91

Allen grade has to 96 points for his arm and mobility and -2 for his accuracy and reading the field.

i am open to him succeeding but he has a lot of suck about him. 

[mitch_connor]

If we're talking about hype, it's tough to consider '83. the draft was still pretty new as a televised event, and was still seen as kind of a novelty. and lots of TV households still didn't have ESPN yet.

[JiffyJag]

It's the deepest class since 2012, for sure. Fewer "wow" prospects though than previous big QB years and more overall question marks

arguably more interesting iyam. Excited to see how these guys turn out. 

[Broncofan]

Part of the reason why 2018 is getting so much attention - we know teams are investing heavily in the 2018 class by the unprecedented early trades to move up.   And while there’s always a part that’s hype - an unspoken part is how bad the top of the 2019 class looks.  

This is usually the time of year when you hear all about next year’s class and how teams would rather wait than invest early.   You are not hearing that at all.   At the same stage of their careers the top 5 guys this year were getting a lot more love than the top 2019 draft targets.   And as flawed as they are guys like Rudolph and White could probably make a case for being in the top 3-4 of next year’s class.  

IMO teams are thinking about investing early at QB not just for the 2018 candidates in a vacuum but the evaluation that 2019’s cupboard for top end draft talent looks pretty bare.   No doubt 1-2 guys will improve their stock but then it means needing a premium top 5 pick to get a guy you can get in mid round 1 this year, with the 2018 guy having a longer record of being seen as a potential franchise guy.  

 

 

 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

I feel like a huge part of the hype is the media. I dont necessarily think this class is fantastic but the shear volume of higher ranked prospects its impressive. 

Darnold

Rosen

Mayfield

Allen

Rudolph

L-Jax

 

I feel like its been a while since there were 6 guys that have been generating a decent amount of buzz as possible 1st rounders

[Epyon]

I liked last year's top 3 better than all of the top 5 this year... /shrug

Regardless (and I'm not saying this is the primary reason for it) I think media needing stories to sell is part of the equation, but also the growing importance of the position coupled with the ever growing need for new QB talent....

The league is filled with "old guard" QBs now, and there hasn't really been a great success rate on young guys coming in to replace them.... and yet at the same time you see teams like Green Bay field mediocre all around rosters and remain in constant contention simply because they have the best QB in the league (and as a Bears fan, I want to vomit a bit every time I have to acknowledge it)... Or the Saints doing the same with Brees every year.  TL:DR the "hunt" for the "next Rodgers/Brees/Manning/Brady/Big Ben" is an easy sell from the media to the fans, but the actual search is getting more and more important in general as all of those stars are rapidly "aging out" of the league.

[RuskieTitan]

In my lifetime? Probably not. Now if we are talking pure quality, then no, but in terms of sheer prospects who could go in the first and be considered good, there's like 4 guys being talked about as legitimate top 10 and up to 3 more in the first potentially.

Personally think there will be 5 total in the first.

Most drafts in recent history have 1 or 2 guys at the top then maybe another guy in the first.

[Deekster37]

On 4/5/2018 at 4:04 PM, VanS said:

Not true.  Eli Manning was the guy everyone thought would be a franchise QB.  Big Ben had questions surrounding him similar to Josh Allen given the level of competition.  And Phillip Rivers was really only viewed as a top 10 prospect by one team (the Chargers).  They coached him at the senior bowl and fell in love with him.  Before the senior bowl most teams had him as a late 1st round/2nd round caliber prospect.  And its unlikely he would have gone in the top 10 to anyone but the Chargers.  The Giants who actually picked him in the draft before trading him to the Chargers for Eli Manning didn't really value Phillip Rivers that highly at all.  The Giants GM was all-in on Manning and if he couldn't get Manning, he said in a documentary (Caught in the Draft) years later that he would have taken Big Ben over Phillip Rivers.  He only picked Rivers because he knew that is who the Chargers wanted if they were going to trade Eli Manning.

 

Some revisionist history going on here.  I actually remember the 2004 draft and the QB class was not as hyped as ya'll make it out to be.  I clearly remember it was Eli Manning and everyone else.  Eli was the guy who was getting most of the hype.  Some people were even saying he was better than Peyton (or at the very least more talented).  Big Ben had questions around him for being the small school guy.  And there was little to no hype for Phillip Rivers before the senior bowl.  Most people had him going late 1st or in the 2nd round before the senior bowl.  He upped his stock some after the senior bowl but its unlikely he would have gone in the top 10 of the draft to anyone but the Chargers.

The 2004 QB class was not getting crazy hype.  Eli Manning was.  He was sorta like Andrew Luck before Andrew Luck.  The 2004 draft was all about him.

Lol venny come on don't be dumb tell me stuff I don't know first .....well aware of the senior bowl stuff hence my point and your telling me when big Ben dropped to the steel city they weren't licking there chops realizing they had a Franchiser your so wrong..... Eli was the top ranked QB in the draft I agree that doesn't add to your point......come on bud your better then this 

[Kiltman]

The shear number of guys at QB being talked about are probably the highest since 83 yea...hmm 99 was high as was 2004.
But they didn't exist in today's media landscape which has anointed all these guys except Lamar the last couple months.

Like others have said though it's mostly driven by the state of the league. 
We didn't really get a ton of even good Qbs for awhile. You look at 06' to 10' you got Matt Ryan and Matt Stafford that's it for good Qbs. Then two mid tier guys (Flacco & Cutler/retired) and a warm body tier in Sam Bradford. 
That's it 2 good QBs and at this point with Flacco...two warm bodies when paired with Bradford.

The generation that was supposed to take over and push Brady/Peyton didn't arrive.

2011 is a solid year comparatively cause we got Cam, who's hit or miss but obviously in the top 14 QBs. Then a mid to warm body Andy Dalton, and eventually a mid to low tier Tyrod Taylor

 

Quarterback play has been abysmal and in the current league become so overvalued it's crippling teams.

 

Enter this draft class, a bunch of solid guys..each with his own red flags. None of them are great, and they all seem to represent a different archetype or facet of what being a QB means to people

Josh Allen / Arm strength and stature 
Sam Darnold / Pedigree and Gunslinger
Josh Rosen / Intelligence and Accuracy
Baker Mayfield / Leadership and Confidence
Lamar Jackson / Playmaking Ability and Athleticism

I think that's what is causing so much discussion, so much flux in rankings and evaluations.
Cause as hard as people try they always have bias..and different people value these traits more than they might others.

Personally I don't rate any of them THAT highly. You throw them in last years class, sure maybe some of them stay near the top towards end of the 1st...but two years ago and they are all mostly 2nd round picks. I just don't see especially Darnold, Rosen or Mayfield blowing up and being top QBs in the league. Allen has a shot if he develops a little more, and Lamar can be a star with the right coach...but that doesn't often happen. They all have potential, and feel safe saying they'll be better than the Andy Dalton's of the world. But if you are drafting a guy and putting so much into him, I think you'd want to aim higher than "could be a little better than Andy Dalton".

But the whole thing is intensified going back by how starved the league is for even mid level QB talent and how this draft really isn't strong at position typically valued. There aren't stud OTs, there isn't a handful of pass rushers or shutdown DBs. We don't even have a stud WR. We have a potentially generational RB...which teams don't tend to value, One pass rush who is good, but not a freak like top guys in recent years, and a guard. So these QBs are going and they are going early. At this point I think all 5 might be going in the first 15 picks.

If I'm a Rams, Raiders, Texans, Titans or Eagles...I'm happy I got my guy the last couple of years and not looking at this group for answers.

[Tugboat]

1 hour ago, Kiltman said:

The shear number of guys at QB being talked about are probably the highest since 83 yea...hmm 99 was high as was 2004.
But they didn't exist in today's media landscape which has anointed all these guys except Lamar the last couple months.

Like others have said though it's mostly driven by the state of the league. 
We didn't really get a ton of even good Qbs for awhile. You look at 06' to 10' you got Matt Ryan and Matt Stafford that's it for good Qbs. Then two mid tier guys (Flacco & Cutler/retired) and a warm body tier in Sam Bradford. 
That's it 2 good QBs and at this point with Flacco...two warm bodies when paired with Bradford.

The generation that was supposed to take over and push Brady/Peyton didn't arrive.

2011 is a solid year comparatively cause we got Cam, who's hit or miss but obviously in the top 14 QBs. Then a mid to warm body Andy Dalton, and eventually a mid to low tier Tyrod Taylor

 

Quarterback play has been abysmal and in the current league become so overvalued it's crippling teams.

 

Enter this draft class, a much of solid guys..each with his own red flags. None of them are great, and they all seem to represent a different archetype or facet of what being a QB means to people

Josh Allen / Arm strength and stature 
Sam Darnold / Pedigree and Gunslinger
Josh Rosen / Intelligence and Accuracy
Baker Mayfield / Leadership and Confidence
Lamar Jackson / Playmaking Ability and Athleticism

I think that's what is causing so much discussion, so much flux in rankings and evaluations.
Cause as hard as people try they always have bias..and different people value these traits more than they might others.

Personally I don't rate any of them THAT highly. You throw them in last years class, sure maybe some of them stay near the top towards end of the 1st...but two years ago and they are all mostly 2nd round picks. I just don't see especially Darnold, Rosen or Mayfield blowing up and being top QBs in the league. Allen has a shot if he develops a little more, and Lamar can be a star with the right coach...but that doesn't often happen. They all have potential, and feel safe saying they'll be better than the Andy Dalton's of the world. But if you are drafting a guy and putting so much into him, I think you'd want to aim higher than "could be a little better than Andy Dalton".

But the whole thing is intensified going back by how starved the league is for even mid level QB talent and how this draft really isn't strong at position typically valued. There aren't stud OTs, there isn't a handful of pass rushers or shutdown DBs. We don't even have a stud WR. We have a potentially generational RB...which teams don't tend to value, One pass rush who is good, but not a freak like top guys in recent years, and a guard. So these QBs are going and they are going early. At this point I think all 5 might be going in the first 15 picks.

If I'm a Rams, Raiders, Texans, Titans or Eagles...I'm happy I got my guy the last couple of years and not looking at this group for answers.

Yeah.  It's all this stuff contributing to the exciting discussion and "hype" around this QB class.  So many flavours to choose from.  Exacerbated by looking forward to next year's class and...atypically, finding almost nothing at all to be excited about, even in a "grass is always greener" scenario that you tend to get this time of year as the current crop gets shredded to pieces under the draft microscope.  For once there's no, "ahhh, maybe we'll just wait 'till next year".