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Narrowing down 1st round pick


jebrick

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MOST LIKELY:
Pro Day dinner (Colbert tried to attend LVE dinner/pro day but couldn't because of weather), expected to be drafted before 2.60, position of need.

LB Leighton Vander Esch, Boise State
RB Darius Guice, LSU
S Jesse Bates, Wake Forest
LB Rashaan Evans, Alabama
S Ronnie Harrison, Alabama
QB Lamar Jackson, Louisville
QB Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State
WR James Washington, Oklahoma State
TE Mike Gesicki, Penn State
EDGE Sam Hubbard, Ohio State
CB Denzel Ward, Ohio State
NT Da’Ron Payne, Alabama

A REAL POSSIBILITY:
Attended pro day. May have had unreported dinner. Either a need fit or expected 1st/early 2nd rounder.

LB/EDGE Lorenzo Carter, Georgia
RB Sony Michel, Georgia
LB Arden Key, LSU
CB Donte Jackson, LSU
C Billy Price, Ohio State
CB Jaire Alexander, Louisville
RB Nick Chubb, Georgia
CB Tony Brown, Alabama

UNLIKELY BUT CAN'T BE RULED OUT:
Attended pro day or (Reid) came out to say not attending pro day was not a sign to read into. Either not a position of need or not expected to be drafted before 2.60.

DL Tim Settle, Virginia Tech
C J.C. Hassenauer, Alabama
S Tremaine Edmunds, Virginia Tech
S Justin Reid, Stanford
EDGE Duke Ejiofor, Wake Forest
WR Marcel Ateman, Oklahoma State
S Marcus Allen, Penn State
LB Jerome Baker, Ohio State
S Tre Flowers, Oklahoma State

 

Let's not forget that many will go before 28.

Also, it's really the 12 in the first list that are most likely. The next 8 are possibilities that can't be discounted, if the board falls a certain way. If I had to bet, though, I'd take that first list of 12 and give you the field.

I also think these guys are a stretch:

WR James Washington, Oklahoma State
TE Mike Gesicki, Penn State
EDGE Sam Hubbard, Ohio State
CB Denzel Ward, Ohio State

So, that leaves 8, plus the remote possibility that some outlier at a position of need falls (like Edmunds, Roquan, Minkah, maybe Derwin)

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LB Leighton Vander Esch, Boise State
RB Darius Guice, LSU
S Jesse Bates, Wake Forest
LB Rashaan Evans, Alabama
S Ronnie Harrison, Alabama
QB Lamar Jackson, Louisville
QB Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State
WR James Washington, Oklahoma State
TE Mike Gesicki, Penn State

EDGE Sam Hubbard, Ohio State
CB Denzel Ward, Ohio State
NT Da’Ron Payne, Alabama

Ok so my key with these early ones.  Bolded are guys we're going to have to trade up for.  I got LVE going to the Patriots at 21 in my new mock.  He's a patriots player on defense.  Harrison and Ward are top 15 picks, especially Ward.

Italicized are guys we could trade back (in some cases a lot) and still get.  Guice, Washington are both early 2nd round guys.  Jackson and Rudolph should be later but will be overdrafted.  Gesicki and Bates are 3rd round talents because of holes in their game but will get overdrafted too.

So out of that group, I for 3 guys.  Payne, Hubbard, Evans.  I don't think it's going to be Payne because of the idea that they are devaluing this position.  Hubbard or Evans.  My gut says Evans since they would likely feel that's a bigger need.

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LB/EDGE Lorenzo Carter, Georgia
RB Sony Michel, Georgia
LB Arden Key, LSU
CB Donte Jackson, LSU
C Billy Price, Ohio State
CB Jaire Alexander, Louisville
RB Nick Chubb, Georgia
CB Tony Brown, Alabama

All of these guys are second round talents.  I don't really need to add anything else to that.  Alexander and Key will be drafted too early.  Jackson and Brown will drop.

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UNLIKELY BUT CAN'T BE RULED OUT:
Attended pro day or (Reid) came out to say not attending pro day was not a sign to read into. Either not a position of need or not expected to be drafted before 2.60.

DL Tim Settle, Virginia Tech
C J.C. Hassenauer, Alabama
S Tremaine Edmunds, Virginia Tech
S Justin Reid, Stanford
EDGE Duke Ejiofor, Wake Forest
WR Marcel Ateman, Oklahoma State
S Marcus Allen, Penn State
LB Jerome Baker, Ohio State
S Tre Flowers, Oklahoma State

And these guys are all 3rd round talents except for Reid IMO.  They all have some big holes in their games.  I don't see a single one of them going in the first.

 

So, if I were using this as a guide, without trading, to build a top 3 picks:

Rashaan Evans LB Alabama

Sony Michel RB Georgia

Duke Ejiofor EDGE Wake Forest

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The 2nd list ( starting with Carter) are picks that will be gone before their 2.60 pick and are a need and had a pro day attendance by either Tomlin or Colbert or both.

 

I am more worried about the QBs .  Colbert has attended Louisville games 3 years in a row. and they have shown a lot of interest in Rudolph.

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4 hours ago, jebrick said:

LB Leighton Vander Esch, Boise State
RB Darius Guice, LSU
S Jesse Bates, Wake Forest
LB Rashaan Evans, Alabama
S Ronnie Harrison, Alabama
QB Lamar Jackson, Louisville
QB Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State
WR James Washington, Oklahoma State
TE Mike Gesicki, Penn State
EDGE Sam Hubbard, Ohio State
CB Denzel Ward, Ohio State
NT Da’Ron Payne, Alabama

I've run dozens of simulations and Evans is there at 1.28 about 90%. LVE is almost never there. I think Evans should be the pick, but I am open to the best DB on the board as well.

As for 2.60, I believe one of the following guys will be there:

Allen, Marcus     Sr    Penn State    FS    2
Jackson, Josh     rJr    Iowa    CB    2
Reid, Justin     Jr    Stanford    FS    2
Rudolph, Mason     Sr    Oklahoma State    QB    2

However, who the heck really knows what the Steelers board looks like?

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Personally, I am not a fan of Evans in the 1st round but I am often wrong. I have the same feeling about him as I did about Jarvis Jones.

I think if both LVE and Evans are gone I think Bates will be the pick.  They have given him a lot of attention.  I fear that Lamar Jackson could be considered.

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Just now, jebrick said:

Personally, I am not a fan of Evans in the 1st round but I am often wrong. I have the same feeling about him as I did about Jarvis Jones.

I think if both LVE and Evans are gone I think Bates will be the pick.  I fear that Lamar Jackson could be considered.

Can you elaborate? What are the similarities between the two?

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His combine numbers scare me like JJ's scared me.   He has been playing with a groin tear this year.  He had one in the other leg last year.  I worry about the same issues that Dupree had in his 1st year ( same issues). I think he is more Vince Williams than Shazier.  He plays better downhill.  Gets lost in coverage. 

Compare him to Malik Jefferson and tell me the difference other than Jackson is a better athlete.

On the positive side his 3-cone drill is decent.  He is more of a football player than athlete. 

Bottom line, I do not like him in the 1st round because he is closer to Vince Williams and we already have Vince Williams.

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4 minutes ago, jebrick said:

His combine numbers scare me like JJ's scared me.   He has been playing with a groin tear this year.  He had one in the other leg last year.  I worry about the same issues that Dupree had in his 1st year ( same issues). I think he is more Vince Williams than Shazier.  He plays better downhill.  Gets lost in coverage. 

Compare him to Malik Jefferson and tell me the difference other than Jackson is a better athlete.

On the positive side his 3-cone drill is decent.  He is more of a football player than athlete. 

Bottom line, I do not like him in the 1st round because he is closer to Vince Williams and we already have Vince Williams.

@Armsteeld2 linked about 4 videos that proved that point wrong.

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4 hours ago, jebrick said:

MOST LIKELY:
Pro Day dinner (Colbert tried to attend LVE dinner/pro day but couldn't because of weather), expected to be drafted before 2.60, position of need.
As always good stuff from you. I learn a lot reading your posts and getting a different perspective.
LB Leighton Vander Esch, Boise State - - I like the kid. He is not our typical type of LB or first round pick, but he checks the boxes with upside, character, smarts, and leadership.
RB Darius Guice, LSU - - I would be really surprised if we picked a RB round one. I think it is Bell, Ridley and Connor for 2018.
S Jesse Bates, Wake Forest - - I don't think he is a first round talent, realistically closer to third. I would not mind in round two.
LB Rashaan Evans, Alabama - - Still my guy and I hope the negatives continue, so he can fall to us.
S Ronnie Harrison, Alabama - - He is a first round talent at safety. Would not be upset at this pick.
QB Lamar Jackson, Louisville - - I don't see a first round QB.  We invested in Dobbs. He is not a franchise QB, but has the smarts to develop.
QB Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State - - I like him, but again, we have three years or so with Ben. Keep him upright and healthy and we should get a few rings before he retires.
WR James Washington, Oklahoma State - - Fairly deep position and after investing a #2, I don't see this happening unless the board is just crazy. We should be able to get a good young WR round 3 - 5.
TE Mike Gesicki, Penn State - - I am happy with our three TE's. However, he would be in the mix for me round two.
EDGE Sam Hubbard, Ohio State - -We love the OSU guys. A round two consideration.
CB Denzel Ward, Ohio State - - I think he is long, long gone before we pick. He is a top 15 talent. Despite not being the greatest need, he would be pretty high on the BPA board round one.  I think they sprint to the podium if he is there. This would be like when  we took DeCastro over Hightower.
NT Da’Ron Payne, Alabama - - See above. He is a Steelers type of player. He is tough, hard working and dedicated. He is considered the second best interior DL and a top 15 - 20 prospect.

A REAL POSSIBILITY:
Attended pro day. May have had unreported dinner. Either a need fit or expected 1st/early 2nd rounder.

LB/EDGE Lorenzo Carter, Georgia - - First round ability, but third round grade in my book. He would be a solid #2 in my book (picking 28th in the round).
RB Sony Michel, Georgia - - It would send a message.  It would depend on who we chose him over whether I liked it or not.
LB Arden Key, LSU - - Long gone before we pick.
CB Donte Jackson, LSU - - Same as Sony comments.
C Billy Price, Ohio State - - I think we need a back-up C, but not this high with other priorities.
CB Jaire Alexander, Louisville - - See Denzel Ward
RB Nick Chubb, Georgia - - Not sure that his game translates to what the Steelers offense does well. I prefer Connor's upside to his in our offense.
CB Tony Brown, Alabama - - I don't know anything about him. I don't know the name.

UNLIKELY BUT CAN'T BE RULED OUT:
Attended pro day or (Reid) came out to say not attending pro day was not a sign to read into. Either not a position of need or not expected to be drafted before 2.60.

DL Tim Settle, Virginia Tech - -You sold me on him and I looked at some film of his games. Would be a great #2, but probably doesn't last that long.
C J.C. Hassenauer, Alabama
S Tremaine Edmunds, Virginia Tech - - Great upside and Coach T loves the VA guys.
S Justin Reid, Stanford - - A fan favorite as a first or even second round pick.
EDGE Duke Ejiofor, Wake Forest - - meh
WR Marcel Ateman, Oklahoma State
S Marcus Allen, Penn State - - I was high on him early, but after looking at film of other safeties; I like others prospects better.
LB Jerome Baker, Ohio State - - Yep. I would not mind round two.
S Tre Flowers, Oklahoma State - - I like his upside and potential more than many others.

 

Let's not forget that many will go before 28.

Also, it's really the 12 in the first list that are most likely. The next 8 are possibilities that can't be discounted, if the board falls a certain way. If I had to bet, though, I'd take that first list of 12 and give you the field.

I also think these guys are a stretch:

WR James Washington, Oklahoma State
TE Mike Gesicki, Penn State
EDGE Sam Hubbard, Ohio State
CB Denzel Ward, Ohio State

So, that leaves 8, plus the remote possibility that some outlier at a position of need falls (like Edmunds, Roquan, Minkah, maybe Derwin)

Solid job and good input.

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I think a Edge in 1st higher possibility than most think...Dupree still question plus 5th year option still undecided and they have no one else behind him and Watt...Chick was tendered but they literally have nothing else and he’s a FA at end of year...

I think Hubbard from Buckeyes is higher possibility than most believe as well.

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4 minutes ago, AlanFanecaFan said:

I think a Edge in 1st higher possibility than most think...Dupree still question plus 5th year option still undecided and they have no one else behind him and Watt...Chick was tendered but they literally have nothing else and he’s a FA at end of year...

I think Hubbard from Buckeyes is higher possibility than most believe as well.

I wouldn't mind Hubbard in the first. I'd prefer Tyquon(?) Lewis in the 3rd, though. I think Lewis has a chance to be an underrated stud. Similar to Woodley. 

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1 hour ago, jebrick said:

I think Hubbard could be a stud in the NFL.  He is a great technical rusher and has shown he has the ability to  move side-to-side.

Forgot to add in Georgia’s Carter since Tombert were at their pro day as well.

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