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Various play-calling stats (w/ & w/o Rodgers)


JAF-N72EX

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Disclaimer: (Best viewed on a laptop or desktop----sorry phone/tablet users.

A couple days ago someone had mentioned something about the Packers offense in NFL gen and how bad it was without Rodgers and I kind of....not really "refuted it".... but more-so just added some clarity to it based on my own observations that I personally saw throughout the season. Which was basically that the offense rely's so heavily on Rodgers' unique skill set and talent(as with most special players) that McCarthy and co had to change almost everything in their play-book when he got injured to compensate for it. 

When I said that I was already in the middle of a charting project regarding play-calling but had not yet got to the Packers team and I wanted to know if my observations held true or not based on these charts (for no reason other than that I'm a complete nerd). So I started to go through each game to get a general idea of; for one, if the staff really did have to change that much or that I was way off on what I was seeing. For two, IF they DID have to alter anything....just how much of the play-calling had to be altered?

Anyhow, that's what led me to this.

Since I had it, I thought you guys would like to see it, is all. I know that McCarthy has been back and forth with giving up on his play-calling duties and you guys just got a new OC so maybe this is will you give you general idea off what 

Just some quick important notes:

  1. It looks messy as hell and I apologize. Keep in mind, this is just a raw layout taken from my scrap sheet. I started to try and "pretty it up" so that it's easier to read and understand but I just don't have the time.
  2. I wanted to include more info regarding the WR's such as; passing route concepts, 1st, 2nd and 3rd looks, etc, just to get a more thorough idea of the play-call changes as well but unfortunetly that type of data is in a rough draft stage for each team and is still being compiled. And quite frankly, I cannot spend anymore time on one team right now. Maybe later this off-season I can revisit this thread and include it. 
  3. This does not include any raw stats such as; yards included, first downs gained from each down, etc., only because that would serve no real purpose because this is not a Rodgers vs Hundley. We know who those numbers would favor and so it seemed redundent to include them.
  4. The 6 games included for Rodgers are weeks 1-5 and week 15. The "without Rodgers" excludes these weeks.
  5. I did nt include 4th down plays simply because teams are usually only going for it on 4th down when they are trailing late in the game(for teh most part) and Rodgers was 4-1 and Hundley 3-7 so obviously that too seemed un-important at the time. I will, however, include this later on (along with the other stats) if you guys/gals are interested.
  6. The No-Huddle/Huddle offense does not include any 2-minute drills. The reason for this is that while the offense may change with Rodgers in general, two-minute drills are a pretty fundamental aspect, and so again, they're not that important in this regard.
  7. This does not include designed and undesigned QB rushing. This has not yet been compiled either. 

Legend:

  • Overall - The column on the left labeled (overall) displays how often each a pass and run play was called on each down.
  • One-Score game - The column on the right labeled (on-score games) displays the play call in games decided by 1 possession(8 points) win or loss.

With/Without Rodgers Overall Pass ATT Rush ATT Pass Rate Run Rate One Score Games Pass ATT Rush ATT Pass Rate Run Rate
2017 w/o Rodgers (10 games) 1st Down 133 123 52% 48% 1st Down 70 97 42% 58%
2017 w/ Rodgers (6 games) 1st Down 103 71 59% 41% 1st Down 62 40 61% 39%
2016 w/ Rodgers (16 games) 1st Down 249 212 54% 46% 1st Down 116 27 81% 19%
                     
2017 w/o Rodgers (10 games) 2nd Down 104 98 51% 49% 2nd Down 65 72 47% 53%
2017 w/ Rodgers (6 games) 2nd Down 89 39 70% 30% 2nd Down 47 29 62% 38%
2016 w/ Rodgers (16 games) 2nd Down 227 114 67% 33% 2nd Down 156 74 68% 32%
                     
2017 w/o Rodgers (10 games) 3rd Down 104 32 76% 24% 3rd Down 67 26 72% 28%
2017 w/ Rodgers (6 games) 3rd Down 59 16 79% 21% 3rd Down 32 10 76% 24%
2016 w/ Rodgers (16 games) 3rd Down 170 40 81% 19% 3rd Down 165 143 54% 46%

 

Legend:

Pretty self-explanatory. The column on the left represents the play call rate in a huddle offense. The Column on the right represents play calls that were in a no-huddle offense.

  Excluding 2-minute Drills Excluding 2-minute Drills
  Huddle Offense = # of Plays (Pass Rate / Run Rate)   No Huddle Offense = # of Plays (Pass Rate / Run Rate)  
1st Down 1st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q 4th Q Total Pays 1st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q 4th Q Total Plays
2017 w/o Rodgers (10 games) 95 (47% / 53%) 72 (47% / 53%) 96 (49% / 51%) 80 (56% / 44%) 343 (50% / 50%) 2 (0% / 100%) 4 (75% / 25%) 5 (60% / 40%) 20 (95% / 5%) 31 (81% / 19%)
2017 w/ Rodgers (6 games) 36 (58% / 42%) 26 (58% / 42%) 48 (48% / 52%) 30 (63% / 37%) 140 (56% / 44%) 2 (0% / 100%) 4 (75% / 25%) 1 (0% / 100%) 5 (100% / 0%) 12 (67% / 33%)
2016 w/ Rodgers (16 games) 103 (50% / 50%) 78 (62% / 38%) 88 (47% / 53%) 91 (47% / 53%) 360 (51% / 49%) 5 (20% / 80%) 11 (64% / 36%) 24 (58% / 42%) 15 (80% / 20%) 55 (62% / 38%)
                     
  Huddle Offense = # of Plays (Pass Rate / Run Rate)   No Huddle Offense = # of Plays (Pass Rate / Run Rate)  
2nd Down 1st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q 4th Q Total Pays 1st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q 4th Q Total Plays
2017 w/o Rodgers (10 games) 72 (49% / 51%) 58 (53% / 47%) 69 (55% / 45%) 60 (58% / 42%) 259 (54% / 46%) 4 (50% / 50%) 6 (83% / 17%) 10 (90% / 10%) 18 (72% / 18%) 38 (76% / 24%)
2017 w/ Rodgers (6 games) 24 (54% / 46%) 18 (78% / 22%) 28 (64% / 36%) 22 (73% / 27%) 92 (66% / 34%) 4 (50% / 50%) 6 (83% / 17%) 6 (100% / 0%) 5 (80% / 20%) 21 (81% / 19%)
2016 w/ Rodgers (16 games) 67 (72% / 28%) 55 (75% / 25%) 69 (67% / 33%) 66 (61% / 39%) 257 (68% / 32%) 12 (50% / 50%) 16 (50% / 50%) 15 (67% / 33%) 12 (67% / 33%) 55 (58% / 42%)
                     
  Huddle Offense = # of Plays (Pass Rate / Run Rate) No Huddle Offense = # of Plays (Pass Rate / Run Rate)
3rd Down 1st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q 4th Q Total Pays 1st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q 4th Q Total Plays
2017 w/o Rodgers (10 games) 44 (73% / 27%) 44 (80% / 20%) 47 (79% / 21%) 38 (84% / 16%) 173 (79% / 21%) 1 (100% / 0%) 1 (100% / 0%) 4 (50% / 50%) 4 (75% / 25%) 10 (70% / 30%)
2017 w/ Rodgers (6 games) 17 (76% / 24%) 17 (88% / 12%) 17 (82% / 18%) 13 (77% / 23%) 64 (81% / 19%) -- -- 2 (50% / 50%) -- 2 (50% / 50%)
2016 w/ Rodgers (16 games) 47 (81% / 19%) 31 (90% / 10%) 47 (85% / 15%) 42 (69% / 31%) 167 (81% / 19%) 5 (80% / 20%) 4 (100% / 0%) 9 (78% / 22%) 4 (75% / 25%) 22 (82% / 18%)

 

Legend: The first column and rows displays the play call rate on each down by distance as listed. The others are listed as they are described in an orange-ish color (own 1-20 yard line, etc, etc).

Down 1st down = No. of plays (Pass Rate / Run Rate) 2nd down = No. of plays (Pass Rate /Run Rate) 3rd down = No. of plays (Pass Rate /Run Rate)
Distance 1-3 4-7 8-10 11+ 1-3 4-7 8-10 11+ 1-3 4-7 8-10 11+
2017 w/o Rodgers (10 games) 3 (33% / 67%) 3 (0% / 100%) 244 (52% / 48%) 6 (83% / 17%) 42 (48% / 52%) 60 (38% / 62%) 75 (55% / 45%) 25 (80% / 20%) 48 (54% / 46%) 46 (87% / 13%) 19 (95% / 5%) 23 (87% / 13%)
2017 w/ Rodgers (6 games) 8 (38% / 63%) 8 (38% / 63%) 152 (61% / 39%) 6 (67% / 33%) 24 (50% / 50%) 40 (73% / 28%) 49 (71% / 29%) 15 (87% / 13%) 21 (62% / 38%) 28 (86% / 14%) 17 (88% / 12%) 9 (78% / 22%)
2016 w/ Rodgers (16 games) 19 (63% / 37%) 18 (56% / 44%) 498 (55% / 45%) 19 (68% / 32%) 68 (53% / 47%) 117 (67% / 33%) 174 (71% / 29%) 46 (72% / 28%) 75 (65% / 35%) 69 (93% / 7%) 58 88% / 12%) 44 (86% / 14%)
                         
                         
Field Position Own 1-20 Yard Line Own 1-20 Yard Line Own 1-20 Yard Line
Down 1st down = No. of plays (Pass Rate / Run Rate) 2nd down = No. of plays (Pass Rate /Run Rate) 3rd down = No. of plays (Pass Rate /Run Rate)
Distance 1-3 4-7 8-10 11+ 1-3 4-7 8-10 11+ 1-3 4-7 8-10 11+
2017 w/o Rodgers (10 games) -- -- 42 (48% / 52%) -- 2 (50% / 50%) 7 (71% / 29%) 11 (27% / 73%) 7 (57% / 43%) 3 (33% / 67%) 4 (100% / 0%) 3 (100% / 0%) 6 (67% / 33%)
2017 w/ Rodgers (6 games) -- -- 18 (50% / 50%) 2 (50% / 50%) 1 (0% / 100%) 5 (60% / 40%) 5 (80% / 20%) 2 (100% / 0%) 1 (0% / 100%) 4 (75% / 25%) 2 (100% / 0%) 2 (100% / 0%)
2016 w/ Rodgers (16 games) -- -- 47 (38% / 62%) 6 (67% / 33%) 1 (100% / 0%) 11 (73% / 27%) 12 (67% / 33%) 2 (100% / 0%) 4 (75% / 25%) 4 (100% / 0%) 2 (100% / 0%) 5 (60% / 40%)
                         
                         
Field Position Own 21-40 Yard Line Own 21-40 Yard Line Own 21-40 Yard Line
Down 1st down = No. of plays (Pass Rate / Run Rate) 2nd down = No. of plays (Pass Rate /Run Rate) 3rd down = No. of plays (Pass Rate /Run Rate)
Distance 1-3 4-7 8-10 11+ 1-3 4-7 8-10 11+ 1-3 4-7 8-10 11+
2017 w/o Rodgers (10 games) -- -- 94 (59% / 41%) 4 (75% / 25%) 15 (40% / 60%) 20 (25% / 75%) 36 (47% / 53%) 9 (89% / 11%) 12 (58% / 42%) 20 (90% / 10%) 6 (83% / 17%) 10 (90% /10%)
2017 w/ Rodgers (6 games) -- -- 61 (62% / 38%) 2 (50% / 50%) 6 (50% / 50%) 13 (77% / 23%) 17 (82% / 18%) 9 (89% / 11%) 6 (67% / 33%) 6 (83% / 17%) 7 (86% / 14%) 5 (80% /20%)
2016 w/ Rodgers (16 games) -- -- 147 (54% / 46%) 4 (50% / 50%) 15 (27% / 73%) 25 (56% / 44%) 55 (65% / 35%) 14 (64% / 36%) 26 (65% / 35%) 14 (85% / 14%) 15 (93% / 7%) 12 (100% / 0%)
                         
                         
Field Position Own 41-Opp 41 Yard Line Own 41-Opp 41 Yard Line Own 41-Opp 41 Yard Line
Down 1st down = No. of plays (Pass Rate / Run Rate) 2nd down = No. of plays (Pass Rate /Run Rate) 3rd down = No. of plays (Pass Rate /Run Rate)
Distance 1-3 4-7 8-10 11+ 1-3 4-7 8-10 11+ 1-3 4-7 8-10 11+
2017 w/o Rodgers (10 games) -- -- 58 (53% / 47%) 1 (100% /0%) 10 (60% / 40%) 16 (44% / 56%) 16 (69% / 31%) 1 (100% / 0%) 14 (57% / 43%) 10 (90% / 10%) 6 (100% / 0%) 1 (100% / 0%)
2017 w/ Rodgers (6 games) -- 2 (100% / 0%) 31 (71% / 29%) 1 (100% / 0%) 3 (100% / 0%) 8 (38% / 63%) 13 (62% / 38%) 1 (100% / 0%) 2 (100% / 0%) 8 (75% / 25%) 2 (100% / 0%) --
2016 w/ Rodgers (16 games) -- -- 96 (55% / 45%) 5 (80% / 20%) 14 (43% / 57%) 23 (52% / 48%) 27 (78% / 22%) 14 (79% / 21%) 11 (64% / 36%) 15 (100% / 0%) 15 (87% / 13%) 9 (67% / 33%)
                         
                         
Field Position Opp 40-21 Yard Line Opp 40-21 Yard Line Opp 40-21 Yard Line
Down 1st down = No. of plays (Pass Rate / Run Rate) 2nd down = No. of plays (Pass Rate /Run Rate) 3rd down = No. of plays (Pass Rate /Run Rate)
Distance 1-3 4-7 8-10 11+ 1-3 4-7 8-10 11+ 1-3 4-7 8-10 11+
2017 w/o Rodgers (10 games) -- -- 35 (46% / 54%) 1 (100% / 0%) 7 (57% / 43%) 8 (38% / 63%) 8 (88% / 13%) 6 (83% / 17%) 8 (50% / 50%) 8 (88% / 13%) 3 (100% / 0%) 4 (100% / 0%)
2017 w/ Rodgers (6 games) -- -- 29 (59% / 41%) -- 7 (29% / 71%) 9 (89% / 11%) 9 (56% / 44%) 3 (67% / 33%) 5 (60% / 40%) 7 (100% / 0%) 4 (75% / 25%) 1 (0% / 100%)
2016 w/ Rodgers (16 games) -- 1 (0% / 100%) 79 (52% / 48%) 2 (50% / 50%) 11 (73% / 27%) 16 (75% / 25%) 30 (77% / 23%) 7 (86% / 14%) 10 (50% / 50%) 16 (100% / 0%) 6 (100% / 0%) 6 (100% / 0%)
                         
                         
Field Position Opp 20-1 Red-Zone Opp 20-1 Red-Zone Opp 20-1 Red-Zone
Down 1st down = No. of plays (Pass Rate / Run Rate) 2nd down = No. of plays (Pass Rate /Run Rate) 3rd down = No. of plays (Pass Rate /Run Rate)
Distance 1-3 4-7 8-10 11+ 1-3 4-7 8-10 11+ 1-3 4-7 8-10 11+
2017 w/o Rodgers (10 games) 3 (33% / 67%) 3 (0% / 100%) 15 (33% / 67%) -- 8 (38% / 63%) 9 (33% / 67%) 4 (75% / 25%) 2 (100% / 0%) 11 (55% /45%) 4 (50% / 50%) 1 (100% / 0%) 2 (100% / 0%)
2017 w/ Rodgers (6 games) 8 (38% / 63%) 6 (50% / 50%) 13 (54% / 46%) 1 (100% / 0%) 7 (57% / 43%) 5 (100% / 0%) 5 (80% / 20%) -- 7 (57% / 43%) 3 (100% / 0%) 2 (100% / 0%) 1 (100% / 0%)
2016 w/ Rodgers (16 games) 13 (62% / 38%) 14 (57% / 43%) 45 (62% / 38%) 2 (100% / 0%) 15 (60% / 40%) 26 (81% / 19%) 20 (75% / 25%) 3 (33% / 67%) 12 (58% / 42%) 13 (92% / 8%) 9 (56% / 44%) 6 (83% / 17%)

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Legend: Personnel package usage.

No. of Plays (Percentage) 00-Personnel 01-Personnel 02-Personnel 03-Personnel 10-Personnel 11-Personnel 12-Personnel 13-Personnel 14-Personnel 20-personnel 21-Personnel 22-Personnel 23-Personnel 30-Personnel 31-Personnel 32-Personnel
2017 w/o Rodgers (10 games) 7 (1%) 42 (7%) 2 (0%) -- 17 (3%) 369 (60%) 72 (12%) 1 (0%) -- 14 (2%) 60 (10%) 30 (5%) -- -- -- --
2017 w/ Rodgers (6 games) 3 (1%) 24 (6%) 5 (1%) -- 26 (7%) 233 (61%) 38 (10%) 6 (2%) -- 22 (6%) 11 (3%) 9 (2%) 7 (2%) -- -- 1 (0%)

2016 w/ Rodgers (16 games)

56 (5%) 212 (21%) 5 (0%) -- 45 (4%) 487 (47%) 71 (7%) -- -- 62 (6%) 59 (6%) 19 (2%) 2 (0%) 1 (0%) 9 (1%) --

 

Legend: This represents the play call % rate from both Under-center and Shotgun formations.

  Total Snap Rate Run Rate Pass Rate
  Under Center Shotgun Under Center Shotgun Under Center Shotgun
2017 w/o Rodgers (10 games) 38% 62% 64% 26% 36% 74%
2017 w/ Rodgers (6 games) 34% 66% 61% 15% 39% 85%
2016 w/ Rodgers (16 games) 25% 75% 62% 23% 38% 77%

 

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Phenomenal post. 

Interesting to see Montgomery listed at WR wreck the personnel grouping stats in 2016.

It's clear McCarthy did try and lean a bit more on the running game with Hundley around, particularly on 2nd down. 2nd and short with Rodgers is a big play down. With Hundley it was a "Stay on Schedule" down. 

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My takeaways:

  • the passing %s are jarringly high with Rodgers, but I think that's a trend league wide.  Actually think we should have more balance out of the shotgun sets, and more passing on first down relative to 2nd and 3rd.
  • Zone read was criminally under-utilized with Aaron Jones last season with Hundley.  That needs to be the foundational run play for GB Packers this season.  Hopefully that's what Mac sees on the tape.  IDC if Rodgers isn't gonna pull it down that often, the play is still solid when it's executed correctly.  Rogers has a free 6--12 yards each and every time he executes the play correctly and the unblocked guy crashes down.
  • The fact we were using 2 TE stuff as much as we did is a joke considering the personnel was Kendricks and D!ckrod.
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25 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

My takeaways:

  • the passing %s are jarringly high with Rodgers, but I think that's a trend league wide.  Actually think we should have more balance out of the shotgun sets, and more passing on first down relative to 2nd and 3rd.
  • Zone read was criminally under-utilized with Aaron Jones last season with Hundley.  That needs to be the foundational run play for GB Packers this season.  Hopefully that's what Mac sees on the tape.  IDC if Rodgers isn't gonna pull it down that often, the play is still solid when it's executed correctly.  Rogers has a free 6--12 yards each and every time he executes the play correctly and the unblocked guy crashes down.
  • The fact we were using 2 TE stuff as much as we did is a joke considering the personnel was Kendricks and D!ckrod.

Agreed.

Makes me wonder why some have Saquon Barkley as the #2 for the GB Packer specific draft board.  

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14 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Phenomenal post. 

Interesting to see Montgomery listed at WR wreck the personnel grouping stats in 2016.

It absolutely did. 

Speaking of which (while we're talking about Montgomery), did the McCarthy have any intentions of making him a RB prior to the 2016 season or was this move made on the fly mid-season and only happened because of injuries? 
The reason I'm asking is that his position change also makes me wonder if the offensive play book had be changed a little bit last year as well? Not really important I suppose just something that came to mind is all and that 2016 data is from last year so my memory is a bit hazy.

14 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

It's clear McCarthy did try and lean a bit more on the running game with Hundley around, particularly on 2nd down. 2nd and short with Rodgers is a big play down. With Hundley it was a "Stay on Schedule" down. 

Yep. That's the very first thing that really caught my attention too. The fact that McCarthy essentially put the offense on the shoulders of two rookie backs, Jones and Williams, after Rodgers injury speaks volumes about how much the offense is designed around Rodgers' ability and for good reason. 

9 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

Thanks a million for the effort, greatly appreciated

MM said he's starting from scratch and re-writing the playbook for 2018, we'll see how much it differs from these data points

It'll definitely be something interesting to look at 12 months from now, that's for sure. At least that's the idea of this anyhow. It's always interesting to look back on these, especially for teams that do a complete staff overhaul.....the data sticks out so much that it really makes you go WOW! For better or worse.

8 hours ago, skibrett15 said:

My takeaways:

  • the passing %s are jarringly high with Rodgers, but I think that's a trend league wide.  Actually think we should have more balance out of the shotgun sets, and more passing on first down relative to 2nd and 3rd.
  • Zone read was criminally under-utilized with Aaron Jones last season with Hundley.  That needs to be the foundational run play for GB Packers this season.  Hopefully that's what Mac sees on the tape.  IDC if Rodgers isn't gonna pull it down that often, the play is still solid when it's executed correctly.  Rogers has a free 6--12 yards each and every time he executes the play correctly and the unblocked guy crashes down.
  • The fact we were using 2 TE stuff as much as we did is a joke considering the personnel was Kendricks and D!ckrod.

Yeah, I think a 60/40 ratio is about the average now. I haven't finished every team yet but judging by first glance based on the ones that I do have done, it looks like most teams are passing around 59% or 60% of the time. But again that's just a rough guesstimate and is only based on these teams. 
49ers
Bears
Bengals
Bills
Broncos
Browns
Buccaneers
Cardinals
Chargers
Chiefs
Colts
Cowboys
Dolphins


To your third point. Well to be fair, the 12 personnel is the 2nd most used package in the league with the 11 being by far the most used due to it's versatility. It's also worth noting that two TE sets are largely used in rushing situations in most offenses, and because the Packers leaned more on the run last year than usual, these kind of results are sort of to be expected. 

(After I'm finished, I actually plan on going back and including the pass/run ratios for each package. But that won't happen anytime soon.)

So while I do see your point and that it may not make sense from a talent standpoint, it's not necessarily out of the ordinary either. So I wouldn't be too hard on them for it.
 

 

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