First Round Locks: Players and Teams

[mitch_connor]

10 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

Again what you say makes totally no sense to me, saying those other players would have been better valuable for their teams.  That is crazy.  "Of course the Cowboys future would look brighter today with (said players)....  Yeah right....  Elliott is one of the corner stones of that franchise right now and just look at last year, without him they looked quite average obviously!  

 

Say you do not value RBs personally great, but to call Elliott and Fournette not fine players and not worth a high pick, oh and you obviously never mentioned Gurley either.  Easily the best player on that roster and the a major reason for the Rams success last season offensively.  He did win offensive player of the year for a reason as well.  But sure do not value a RB whatever but they are worth high 1st round picks at times if a great player comes along, simple as that.  

 

Sure the typical value chart is QB,OT,DE/OLB,CB etc....  But sometimes that can change if certain things are not around in terms of elite talents.  And RBs will become more an more successful potentially in the NFL because finding quality LBs is getting harder and harder to do with so many teams making them situational pass rushers or under sized DEs in college.  Not as many great all around linebackers anymore it seems because more teams are focusing on the pass and thus more focus on stopping the pass compared to the run.  Does make it easier to run against almost constant nickle coverages.  

 

Nobody said Elliott and Fournette aren't fine players; my exact words were, "those guys are good RBs,  but they were not good picks at that spot in the draft." 

You're right that the Cowboys looked quite average without Elliott last season. They also looked  not much better than average with him. It's  fair to consider their struggles last year, but it's also fair to consider how  those struggles might have been alleviated by the addition of a Stanley,  a Ramsey, or a Buckner. Again, the case being made isn't that there aren't good running backs being drafted early, but rather that taking one early results in missing out on talented players elsewhere.

I think Gurley was a good value at #10, and I already said I think Barkley would be good value there. But you're talking about Barkley at  #4, and I don't like the risk/reward there. At that spot in the draft, ANYTHING less than Gurley-level production is a poor value proposition. And as much as I love Barkley, sub-Gurley  production is within his plausible range of outcomes.

[Broncofan]

8 hours ago, MistaBohmbastic said:

From one Browns fan to another, I have to disagree. We have solid RB's, sure. We don't have anything in the same league as what Barkley could be. I've honestly been wishing he goes to NYG so that I don't have to be upset when CLE passes on him. I'm so conflicted because on one hand, he is so very clearly the best player in this draft. Watching that kid move, man...he's so fluid. It's like watching a masterpiece in motion. The tools he brings into this offense are unparalleled. I think the only thing that's got me held up is the typical RB shelf life. Not everyone can excel beyond their 20's quite like a Frank Gore, and while you want that BPA, you also want the guy who can last. 

I understand the undervaluing of running backs this early in the draft, but if there was ever a time to make an exception, it's right now.

Plus, other than QB, need shouldn’t trump overall BPA early in drafts when there is a gap in talent.  If there isn’t an obvious gap then need can factor in as the tiebreaker.   But in a year (or two at most, except if you have QB), need will be dramatically different.   Get transcendant talent if it’s there.    Teams rarely regret taking the guy who is a clear elite guy over the need based pick early.   

FWIW this doesn’t apply just to Barkley but in general.   If a team thinks Chubb is that level then same applies.   Now if it’s both at the same level of talent then pick between them and sure use need to make the call. 

[pigsooie5]

Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Bucs just seems too obvious.

[BleedTheClock]

19 hours ago, Ozzy said:

I do not get this Taven Bryan love.  Kid has fine quickness, good penetrating DT but I think his value as a prospect is more as a 2nd round guy.  He has freaking 5.5 sacks to his name in a three year Florida football college career.  That is not exactly impressive, he was not even the most productive DL on his team this year arguably and it is not that super talented of a DL for Florida either.  Nice player but not sure he is worth a 1st round pick.  

 

Maurice Hurst sure had the heart issue detected early which could scare some teams.  But on the field kid is a stud DT and a better player than Bryan.  Hurst had 32 TFL and 13.5 sacks in a four year Michigan career on one of the most talented DLs in the nation, and really only played the last three years.  Bryan in three years had 10.5 TFL and 5.5 sacks.  One is far more proven and productive than the other.  Lucky for Taven this year the DT spot is not super deep, because next year in 2019 he would have a lot harder time become compared to those DTs.  

I think both are overrated as hell. Bryan more than Hurst for sure though. Taven Bryan plays with the same ludicrous out of control technique that made Robert Nkemdiche ineffective in his NFL career thus far. And he's not nearly as athletic or powerful as Nkemdiche was. He just flies up the field and tries to cause havoc. That makes you stand out on tape as a disruptor, but you're not really doing your defense a great service by playing this way.

Hurst was very productive and disruptive at Michigan, but I question his athleticism and strength. He gets demolished on double teams and I don't think he's explosive enough to get a ton of consistent pressure in the NFL. I love both Hurst's and Bryan's motors, but I can't imagine them consistently generating heat or stuffing the run against NFL athletes.

[BleedTheClock]

I think the first few picks are easy to predict to be honest. I'm very confident that we see:

 

#1--CLE-Sam Darnold/QB/USC

#2--NYG-Josh Rosen/QB/UCLA

#3--NYJ-Baker Mayfield/QB/Oklahoma

#4--CLE-Saquon Barkley/RB/Penn State

#5--DEN-Josh Allen/QB/Wyoming

#6--IND-Bradley Chubb/DE/NC State

#7--TB-(here's where I don't know...it's going to come down between Denzel Ward and Derwin James. I'm betting Ward)

 

The only thing I think might happen differently is that the Giants trade with the Bills. If this happens, I think Josh Allen would go #2, Rosen #3, Mayfield #5.

[Trentwannabe]

5 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

the Giants trade with the Bills. If this happens, I think Josh Allen would go #2,

Bills haven't shown nearly as much interest in Allen as the media portrays. 

Only formal contact was at the Senior Bowl. 

[CWood21]

11 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I think ILB for sure is the match - just whether it's Roquan or Edmunds.

Didn't we say the same thing about Jarrad Davis and the Raiders last year?

[Broncofan]

10 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Didn't we say the same thing about Jarrad Davis and the Raiders last year?

Yeah it was him and Foster.   Conley falling changed their mindset though.  Seems like we won’t see a similar faller this year. 

[MistaBohmbastic]

3 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

I think the first few picks are easy to predict to be honest. I'm very confident that we see:

 

#1--CLE-Sam Darnold/QB/USC

#2--NYG-Josh Rosen/QB/UCLA

#3--NYJ-Baker Mayfield/QB/Oklahoma

#4--CLE-Saquon Barkley/RB/Penn State

#5--DEN-Josh Allen/QB/Wyoming

#6--IND-Bradley Chubb/DE/NC State

#7--TB-(here's where I don't know...it's going to come down between Denzel Ward and Derwin James. I'm betting Ward)

 

The only thing I think might happen differently is that the Giants trade with the Bills. If this happens, I think Josh Allen would go #2, Rosen #3, Mayfield #5.

I'm trying to accept the fact that the Browns will pass on Barkley. I hope I'm wrong, but my intuition tells me otherwise. From everything we know, and it may not be much, Chubb would get the nod over Barkley. 

For one, Dorsey has this history of not taking tailbacks early. There's no certainty this pattern will continue, but it's something to keep in mind. This is a very deep class, and I'd bet that Dorsey is confident he can find his Kareem Hunt pretty easily in a later round.

Second, we know Hue LOVES the concept of pairing Chubb with Ogbah (And Garrett...lol). That desire will definitely impact Dorsey's decision.

And there's no denying that Chubb is the safer bet to be very good (although not great) for a long span. With Barkley, not only is the prototypical RB shelf life a concern, but his style not being that of the traditional RB mold is no doubt an outstanding issue. Some coaches are better at catering to the strengths of their players than others. Perhaps Haley is, but we know that Hue isn't. 

Don't get me wrong, I'm nearly convinced that Barkley will flourish no matter what. However, I do not believe Dorsey will pull the trigger on Saquon over Chubb. Whether I disagree is another story, but I can't see this as a lock at the moment.

[CWood21]

Here's my current train of thought with the top 5 picks...

Cleveland - At this point, I'd be surprised if Darnold wasn't the pick.  I do think there's a faction inside the Browns FO that likes Mayfield, but I think it's easier to "swallow" a miss if you bet on Darnold as opposed to Mayfield.  Especially for the franchise who drafted Johnny Manziel a few years ago.  I don't believe for a second that the Browns are considering a non-QB here.

NY Giants - They're the big wild card here, and the longer they go without making a trade the more I'm convinced they're not the team who wants to make a move down unless a team is willing to drastically overpay.  I still believe Josh Rosen is their QB of choice at this point, but they're too much of a wild card for me to feel comfortable one way or the other.

NY Jets - I'm pretty confident they're in on Baker Mayfield, unless by some miracle Sam Darnold falls to them which won't happen as long as Cleveland and NY are picking ahead of them.

Cleveland - I think they're perfectly content sticking here unless a team is willing to overwhelm them.  I'm not sure they want to move back to more than the 7th or 8th spot, which makes it difficult to be trade partners with Buffalo.  I think they're leaning Chubb here, and they gave Carlos Hyde a reasonable deal to be their starting RB.  Obviously not so much money to prevent them from taking Barkley, but enough to make you think.

Denver - If there's one player that I think can get Elway to skip on taking a QB, it's Saquon Barkley.  And if he's here and the QBs aren't of his choosing, this won't be a hard selection for him.

SO...to sum up my top 5 picks.

1.) CLE - Sam Darnold
2.) NYG - Josh Rosen
3.) NYJ - Baker Mayfield
4.) CLE - Bradley Chubb
5.) DEN - Saquon Barkley

Or at least that's my current train of though.  Buffalo would presumably trade up with Indianapolis to select Josh Allen.

[ninjapirate]

I'd be really shocked if Guice isn't the pick if he falls to 32. 

[MistaBohmbastic]

28 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Cleveland - I think they're perfectly content sticking here unless a team is willing to overwhelm them.  I'm not sure they want to move back to more than the 7th or 8th spot, which makes it difficult to be trade partners with Buffalo.  I think they're leaning Chubb here, and they gave Carlos Hyde a reasonable deal to be their starting RB.  Obviously not so much money to prevent them from taking Barkley, but enough to make you think.

I obviously have no clue what the card will actually say when it's turned in. Chubb is my guess right now, too. But the logic of signing Hyde doesn't convince me. The Browns also signed Chris Smith, a serviceable DE who will no doubt have a role in that rotation. Hyde and Smith are both solid at their respective positions. Not to mention, Dorsey came out and said that Hyde's signing will "not necessarily" rule out the selection of Barkley. I know, I know...smokescreens and all that. But adding Hyde and having Duke shouldn't rule out Barkley. Rather, it should make them feel better about adding him, because you can extend his shelf life by maintaining a three-back rotation catered to each one's strengths. You could run some nasty offensive formations incorporating two of them on the field at a time.

Just offering another perspective. Like I said, I don't know what will happen.

[mitch_connor]

22 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

I think the first few picks are easy to predict to be honest. I'm very confident that we see:

 

#1--CLE-Sam Darnold/QB/USC

#2--NYG-Josh Rosen/QB/UCLA

#3--NYJ-Baker Mayfield/QB/Oklahoma

#4--CLE-Saquon Barkley/RB/Penn State

#5--DEN-Josh Allen/QB/Wyoming

#6--IND-Bradley Chubb/DE/NC State

#7--TB-(here's where I don't know...it's going to come down between Denzel Ward and Derwin James. I'm betting Ward)

 

The only thing I think might happen differently is that the Giants trade with the Bills. If this happens, I think Josh Allen would go #2, Rosen #3, Mayfield #5.

If the Colts get Chubb at 6 after collecting all those picks from the Jets, they will have played this very nicely.

[CWood21]

11 hours ago, MistaBohmbastic said:

I obviously have no clue what the card will actually say when it's turned in. Chubb is my guess right now, too. But the logic of signing Hyde doesn't convince me. The Browns also signed Chris Smith, a serviceable DE who will no doubt have a role in that rotation. Hyde and Smith are both solid at their respective positions. Not to mention, Dorsey came out and said that Hyde's signing will "not necessarily" rule out the selection of Barkley. I know, I know...smokescreens and all that. But adding Hyde and having Duke shouldn't rule out Barkley. Rather, it should make them feel better about adding him, because you can extend his shelf life by maintaining a three-back rotation catered to each one's strengths. You could run some nasty offensive formations incorporating two of them on the field at a time.

Just offering another perspective. Like I said, I don't know what will happen.

I wasn't trying to imply that I thought that a Hyde signing excluded the Browns from selecting Barkley, but between that and how much Hue Jackson has talked about Bradley Chubb paired with Myles Garrett and Emmanuel Ogbah has me believing that's where they're going.  Chris Smith signed a 3 years, $12M deal which is sort of similar to what Hyde signed, although Hyde got a little bit more.  The difference is Carlos Hyde is the 9th most expensive RB in terms of AAV, where as Chris Smith is tied for 39th among DE.  That's a DRASTIC difference that can't be overstated.  Would I be surprised if the Browns took Barkley?  No, but at this point I believe they're going to grab Darnold and Chubb with their first two picks assuming the second and third picks are used on QBs as I anticipate.

[IDOG_det]

Unless someone unexpected falls, I would very much expect the Lions to be targeting a left guard. Will Hernandez, Isaiah Wynn, Connor Williams, Billy Price, or even Mike McGlinchey should be among their targets.