New Mock

[bucsfan333]

1. Cleveland - Sam Darnold, QB, USC
2. New York Giants - Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State
3. New York Jets from Indianapolis - Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
4. Denver from Cleveland via Houston - Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
5. Cleveland from Denver - Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
6. Indianapolis from New York Jets - Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame

Trade - We get 1.12 and 1.22 from Buffalo

We miss out on the big three. But this is just as good. We're really in a win-win situation at seven. We'll either get one of the big three or a chance to trade down.

7. Buffalo from Tampa Bay - Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

12. from Buffalo via Cincinnati - Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Alabama

He's not anybody's first choice for a safety, really. But we've met with him twice. I really like his game and think he starts right away. He plays mean and aggressive football. And he's smooth enough to cover TEs, RBs, and slot guys.

 

1.22 from Buffalo - Derrius Guice, RB, LSU

There are now off field concerns with Guice. But there's no denying his game. There were off field concerns with Dalvin Cook last year and we almost took him in the first before we tried to trade up for him in the second.

 

2.6 Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado

We met with him this week. He's not a 4.3 guy like Alexander, Ward, and Donte Jackson (and that's why I think Oliver is the one who falls). But he's got great speed for a 6’ 200lb guy. He should see playing time early and often.

 

4.2 Nyheim Hines, RB, NC State

He's small (5’9” <200lbs) but he's shifty and FAST. He's a great receiving back and kick returner. We seem to really like him.

 

5.7 Brett Toth, OT, Army

We met with him at the East West Shrine Game, where he really impressed. With Benenoch being a guy Koetter said to look out for as a potential starter, we'll need more versatile depth. 

 

6.6 Mike Love, EDGE, USF

He's a height/weight/speed guy, and Licht seems to like those types of prospects. We've worked him out.

 

6.?? from Pittsburgh - Kendrick Norton, DT, Miami

We trade our seventh to move up as high as we can. Probably only a few spots. Norton is a big body to compete with Stevie T.

[BucsDraftGeek47]

you had me at the trade down 

i wouldnt be mad with Fitz, if we traded down of course

i think 22 is a little high for Guice but ill take it

dont know much about Oliver

and we get Hines in the 4th ! love it

[kgarrett12486]

In this scenario, I think trade back is our best option as you mentioned. I have no problem at all w/ Fitzpatrick as the pick. I think he fits well with what we're looking for. A guy who can cover out of the slot, or possibly even the outside if needed (although I don;t think it's his best fit). He's a versatile piece.

Not crazy about taking Guice at #22. He's a early-mid 2nd round talent in my book. We'd be reaching at #22 IMO. I think there will be better talents still available at that pick that I wouldn't pass on. Even though we need an RB, I'm not over-drafting one. I really think Guice has a good shot at being on the board come day two. If we wanted him, we could move up at that point or stand pat and hope he fell...

Or (more unlikely) we could move back a 2nd time in the 1st round and take Guice near the later 1st. That seems unlikely though...

Nice job though. Rest of the draft looks good and makes sense...

[bucsfan333]

2 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

Not crazy about taking Guice at #22. He's a early-mid 2nd round talent in my book. We'd be reaching at #22 IMO. I think there will be better talents still available at that pick that I wouldn't pass on. Even though we need an RB, I'm not over-drafting one. I really think Guice has a good shot at being on the board come day two. If we wanted him, we could move up at that point or stand pat and hope he fell...

Or (more unlikely) we could move back a 2nd time in the 1st round and take Guice near the later 1st. That seems unlikely though...

Nice job though. Rest of the draft looks good and makes sense...

I was iffy on Guice at 22 too. But we almost took Cook at 19 last year, and he ended up going 41st. So there's a (rumored) precedent set for us and "reaching" on RBs.

A prospect's worth is whatever you make it, really. It just takes one team. I think we could be that team in this scenario.

[kgarrett12486]

4 minutes ago, bucsfan333 said:

I was iffy on Guice at 22 too. But we almost took Cook at 19 last year, and he ended up going 41st. So there's a (rumored) precedent set for us and "reaching" on RBs.

A prospect's worth is whatever you make it, really. It just takes one team. I think we could be that team in this scenario.

Sure hope we're not, but I totally agree with everything you said.

 

[ravishingone]

Don' t see them picking 2 RBs, not with Antoine Smith walking the streets with his knee rehabbed.  ?  UDFA RB besides draft pick yup.  12 is an interesting spot.  You gonna ride that Minkah train to the finish line.  ?  Curious who did you project being drafted 8 thru 11, that Minkah was best left on the  board.  I'm assuming James and Edmunds taken before.

[bucsfan333]

As for the trade, we're "winning" based on the trade value chart. Pick seven is ~1,500 and picks 12 and 22 are 1,200 and 780. So we're getting 480 points of extra value. But if you look at the Jets/Colts trade and you'll see something similar. The Colts (at three) had 2,200 points of value. The Jets traded 1.6 (1,600), 2.37 (530), 2.42 (410), and a future second (I just valued it as the 16th pick; 420). That's a total of 2,960 points, which is 760 points over.

So 12 and 22 might seem like a lot to move up five spots but the value appears to be there.

[bucsfan333]

27 minutes ago, ravishingone said:

Don' t see them picking 2 RBs, not with Antoine Smith walking the streets with his knee rehabbed.  ?  UDFA RB besides draft pick yup.  12 is an interesting spot.  You gonna ride that Minkah train to the finish line.  ?  Curious who did you project being drafted 8 thru 11, that Minkah was best left on the  board.  I'm assuming James and Edmunds taken before.

Visiting with Fitz twice has fueled my fire. 

8. Chicago - Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech
9. San Francisco - Derwin James, S, Florida State
10. Oakland - Vita Vea, DT, Washington
11. Miami - ???

I really have no idea what Miami will do. Wynn/McGlinchey/Payne/Ward/R Smith all seem to fill needs. Fitz too. I think they're in a spot where they'll try to trade down. But I dunno.

As for the whole two RBs thing. We need two. We've shown a lot of interest in guys like Hines and Walton. But those guys aren't every down types. And that's what we need.

[ScuB29]

I really like it!! Trade down is probably the best thing that can happen to us.

[kgarrett12486]

2 hours ago, bucsfan333 said:

As for the trade, we're "winning" based on the trade value chart. Pick seven is ~1,500 and picks 12 and 22 are 1,200 and 780. So we're getting 480 points of extra value. But if you look at the Jets/Colts trade and you'll see something similar. The Colts (at three) had 2,200 points of value. The Jets traded 1.6 (1,600), 2.37 (530), 2.42 (410), and a future second (I just valued it as the 16th pick; 420). That's a total of 2,960 points, which is 760 points over.

So 12 and 22 might seem like a lot to move up five spots but the value appears to be there.

Could always flip them a 2019 mid round pick to help bridge the gap too, like a 3rd or 4th...

[What_The_Buc]

On 4/6/2018 at 1:10 PM, bucsfan333 said:

As for the trade, we're "winning" based on the trade value chart. Pick seven is ~1,500 and picks 12 and 22 are 1,200 and 780. So we're getting 480 points of extra value. But if you look at the Jets/Colts trade and you'll see something similar. The Colts (at three) had 2,200 points of value. The Jets traded 1.6 (1,600), 2.37 (530), 2.42 (410), and a future second (I just valued it as the 16th pick; 420). That's a total of 2,960 points, which is 760 points over.

So 12 and 22 might seem like a lot to move up five spots but the value appears to be there.

Factor in that Miami and Buffalo are both rumored to be after one of the top 4 QBs and both are in the same division. Miami picks after Tampa (Winston) and Chicago (Trubisky) if 3 of the Quarterbacks are gone by 7 the value of our pick to Buffalo means a lot more and they might have to cough up a little extra to get in front of their division rival and get their guy. 12 and 22 may not be a long shot. 

 

as for the Draft

I'm not big on Fitzpatrick. Im more for Derwin James I think he fits a bigger need at SS. Also I think his attitude passion and love for the game will be a much greater addition to the locker room. however in your trade down scenario James is selected before Fitz so in that case I guess I wouldn't mind.

I like Guice and I believe he will be the 2nd running back off the board. I believe he will be a 1st round pick. his Injuries and punishing running style concern me though. I didn't watch a lot of Colorado so Im not familiar with Oliver however I do know he is highly touted and cornerback is a clear need for this team. I like Hynes and Kelly from Tennessee, both same type of runners built very similar. I know the Bucs have visited with both multiple times and I know they put Hynes through a detailed workout. Im pretty sure one of them will be Bucs.

solid mock overall good job

[indifference]

Not a fan of Guice at 22. Limited pass catching abilities but he can do everything else. As others pointed out he’s a r2 prospect more than anything but I get it. Fill the need.

 

According to PR sources Bucs like James more than Fitzpatrick. I think he’s good but his ceiling isn’t nearly as high as DJ. I would be okay with him just not personally high on him as others are. Olivers and Himes are good picks.

[bucsfan333]

Given recent visits, I'd swap Guice for Josh Jackson and take Rashaad Penny in the second.