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Pastor Dillon

Why the Houston Texans can win the Super Bowl this season

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It very rarely happens that a team goes from 4-12 to winning the Super Bowl, but its also very rare that a team as good as the Texans goes 4-12. I know that doesn't seem to make sense, but let me break it down. 

Go back with me to 2016. The Texans had a Super Bowl level defense, in fact it was the number 1 defense in the league allowing just 301 yards per game. The Patriots won the Super Bowl giving up 326. The difference between the Texans and the Patriots was in Points allowed. The Patriots allowed a league best 15.6 a game compared to the Texans 11th best 20.5 per game. The reason for this difference in my opinion is another eye opening stat. The Patriots were a +12 in turnover differential. The Texans were a -7. Our defense was being made to look bad by an offense that was in shambles. 

We were able to overcome all this, with Brock Oswiler at QB and win a playoff game. So lets compare our 2016 D to what we should have in 2018. We are better at every position on D except 1. AJ Bouye was a huge part of our success in 2016, and we have not replaced him with a player on his level, but it seems everywhere else, we should be better, starting with RAC being back at the helm

D-Line: 2016 featured the last season for Vince Wilfork, Rookie DJ Reader, rookie Joel Heath, and 2nd year Christian Covington. Watt missed almost all of the season. Clowney spent some time at DE, but hes an OLB. Look at what we have in 2018. 3rd year DJ Reader. Returning JJ Watt. 3rd year Joel Heath, 3rd year brandon Dunn, 2nd year Carlos Watkins. That front still doesn't speak to being great, but it will definitely be an upgrade over our front that landed us the number D

Linebackers: 2016 featured Rookie McKinney and Washed up Brian Cushing starting. Jon Simon and Whitney Mercilus. PLus the first year where Clowney was starting to play well. This year we will feature better versions of McKinney and Clowney. A healthy return of Mercilus and a 2nd year man in Cunningham that is already better than the last version of Cushing. We still need some depth, but the starting unit might be the best we have ever had. 

Secondary. These guys wet the bed last year, but in 2016 they were really solid. with a solid trio of JJoe, Kareem and Bouye, we also had Hal and Demps in at Safety. This is the one group that might not be as good as 2016, and will be the group to watch. We replace Bouye with Colvin, and we replace demps with the Honey Badger. We are getting more experienced Kevin Johnson and Andre Hal but also an older JJoe. Its really hard to tell what this group will do, but my guess is that it can hold its own. 

Bottom line, our defense should be a top 5 D if it can stay healthy next season. A lot of Ifs, but at some point the injury bug has to leave us alone. A top 5 D can make us a playoff contender alone. 

 

Lets look at the offense. This group can be scary good this season. Of course it all hinges on Watson. Does he make the recovery? Normally with rookie QBs, you are looking for a big jump in their 2nd season. I am looking for BOB to stay out of his way and let him do what he was doing last year. We have had the worst offense in the league over the last few years. The only bright spot we have seen were in weeks 3-8. A small sample size, but we played against teams like the Patriots, Chiefs, and Seahawks and we scored 36, 57, 34, 33 and 38 in those 5 games. The offense with Watson at QB was dynamic. It was Super Bowl caliber. In those 5 games Watson threw for 1,462 yards 18 TDs and ran for another almost 200 yards and a TD. With a healthy Hopkins, Fuller and Ellington teams could not stop us. But alas the injury bug got us. If we are healthy however, the team has the chance to be so much better on offense than we were in those 5 games, which is crazy to think about, but lets look at it

Offensive line: It was terrible all season. Those 5 games we had a healthy unleashed Watson, that was the same line. The worst in the NFL. We are returning two guys that were both basically rookies last year in Nick Martin and Julien Davenport. We have added Henderson, Fulton, and Kelemete who aren't household names, but are all improvements over what we had last year. We also return our two most consistent linemen in Allen and Mancz. Giacomini, Sua-Fila and Lamm were really really terrible. We are going to go from a Poor line to an average line. That is a huge leap, especially considering that we had a dynamic offense with the poor line.

Backs: Miller and Prosch will be back in their normal position. I suspect Foreman is finished, but who knows. Ervin supposedly flashes a lot of potential and he should be back from injury as well. 

TEs: This position really battled the injury bug. We are returning Griffin and Anderson, so the position will not be any worse. 

WRs: This is the group that can make a huge jump as well. We currently have 5 guys that should make the roster. Hopkins and Fuller are locked in at the starting positions. Both guys really gelled with Watson. Really gelled with Watson. If the two stay healthy for 16 games, I think they can both get 1,000 yards. Hopkins is already a top 5 WR in the league. The back ups are Ellington, Miller and Coats. Miller has a chance to be a solid slot WR, but regardless, a little better injury luck and we have a great group of WRs

 

In those 5 games we had the highest scoring offense in the league. Now I dont think that will continue for a 16 game season, but with better depth at WR, an average offensive line and a healthy Watson, BOB is the only thing that can slow this offense down. I think we can post a top 10 offense to go with a top 5 defense next year. 

 

 

Looking at all the factors, where the team stands right now, Health is the only thing that will stop us from being one of the top teams in the league next year. Getting Watson, Watt and Mercilus back will be huge for our team. 

 

There is more good news. We have 3 3rd round picks in the draft, plus the 2nd round of free agency that we always get involved with. This team will be better in training camp than it looks right now. 

I dont think it's a stretch for health to have us back in the top 5 of the draft, and I dont think its a stretch for health to have us winning the whole thing. Time will tell, but I like our chances to be the turn around team this year. 

 

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16 hours ago, Pastor Dillon said:

We are getting more experienced Kevin Johnson and Andre Hal but also an older JJoe.

KJo is still an unknown and JJoe is breaking down.

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3 reasons

 

1.  Bill O Brien and his in game coaching decisions

2. OL problem which leads me to 3

3.  OL might get Watson killed if it isn't improved this season

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I think the pass rush is the real key that makes or breaks this team. If anyone of the front seven guys can get consistent pressure on opposing QBs, we're going to be much better next season. I really don't care who it is - Watt, Clowney, Mercilius, Reader, Covington, Watkins - if we get to the QB, the secondary will benefit, the opposition will be giving the ball to the offense more frequently, and Deshaun Watson/DeAndre Hopkins/Will Fuller will carve up opposing defenses. 

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Let's be honest here...that "#1 defense" thing was an illusion. The reason teams didn't put up a lot of yards is because they weren't available to be had. The not-so-special teams and Osweiller leading the offense gave opposing teams lots of short fields to play with. In reality, that defense was middle of the pack.

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