Lamar Jackson at 16

[diamondbull424]

First off, this was initially just to be a response to @coordinator0 post on the strong possibility that the Ravens could select Derrius Guice at #16, and I don’t disagree. However for similar reasons as his Guice argument, the Ozzie surprise statement, the list of private visits to the Ravens facility, and the approach to the Joe Flacco situation changing; my final prediction for who the Ravens will take at 16 (assuming he makes it), is Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville.

As stated by @coordinator0 we seem to not be as high on selecting receivers early in the draft. Now Eric DeCosta has stated that he does believe we need to take more swings at the position, I initially took that to mean we would take more swings at 1st round receivers, but that could quite literally mean to simply put more coins into the slot machine. When we needed to fix the much maligned TE position in the wake of Todd Heap, our solution was to take two talented TEs on day 2 and 3 (in a similarly deep tight end draft that had Gronk and Graham) of the draft in Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta respectively. Obviously Pitta went on to be the more successful player and if not for injury could have been a potential ring of honor level talent.

So equally we might decide to double up on the receiver position on day 2 and 3 of a draft class that DeCosta has on multiple occasions mentioned to be the strength of the class. Especially when we consider the history of the Ravens (and Steelers and Patriots- two teams we’re similarly modeled to) evaluation of the position.

Now that I’ve covered why it’s logical to assume we wait to select a receiver in the draft, we can move on to the best player available strategy. This is the cornerstone of the Ozzie Newsome philosophy, so looking at the incomplete list of our 30 private visits, we see two first round talents in Derrius Guice and Lamar Jackson. Of the two, I think if you remove the bias of “traditional” skill sets vs ability, it’s obvious that Lamar Jackson is the better of the two players and is quite literally one of the elite talents of this draft class.

Lamar Jackson with over 4000 yards and 50 TDs rushing the football, has more yards and TD than Saquan Barkley, Sony Michel, and Derrius Guice. Now one might say, defenses can’t key in on stopping him rushing because he’s a quarterback... well, that’s kind of the point. He also has passed for over 9000 yards and 69 TDs with only 25 interceptions. Those are similar career passing numbers to Josh Rosen. Everyone knows what kind of rushing threat Jackson is, but few in the media acknowledge his poise within the pocket and ability to keep his eyes downfield (similar to Russell Wilson), for that I post this video comparing Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen regarding their poise (and lack of it) in the pocket.

Everyone knows I’m a Flacco supporter. And when @dcfieldsdraft conundrum thread was first started back in January, I said it would take a special talent to move me away from Flacco. Lamar Jackson is IMO a special talent. He is a dual threat QB on the same level of Michael Vick, Vince Young, and Cam Newton. On tape, he just might be faster than Mike Vick and is developed enough to know when to run and when not to run. He throws well on the run and makes good passing decisions. More importantly, with as many yards rushing as he’s accumulated in college he has also remained durable despite his frame. He does an excellent job of breaking his runs to the sideline to protect himself and with the new NFL rules about not leading with the crown of the helmet, that should reduce his chances of injury in the open field.

Detractors might point to us having to switch systems to accommodate Jackson. But consider that we’re picking up RGIII; have drafted Tyrod Taylor (11’) and Troy Smith (07’); and Harbaugh/Mornhinweg have worked extensively with a dual threat QB in Donovan McNabb in Philly. Obviously our front office has a comfortability with selecting that kind of talent and our coaching staff has a comfortability with mentoring those types of talents. I’m sure we were already going to incorporate wrinkles into the playbook for RGIII, adding Jackson only increases the amount of wrinkles we might add.

I love Flacco and I don’t believe he should be replaced for just any QB (Mason Rudolph and Josh Allen both being obvious downgrades), but Jackson is a top 3 talent in this draft (he popped out to me initially when watching Derwin James draft tape.) and seems to be focused only on football. Vick, Young, and Newton have all faltered (to varying degrees) due to distractions outside of the game. Jackson is all in on football, even to the chagrin of the media.

To conclude, Lamar Jackson, if he’s available at 16 would be the best player available in the draft. The one thing that we can all agree on is that we need playmakers on offense, there is no greater playmaker in this draft, than Lamar Jackson. Be sure to comment on my wall of text below. What do you think?

 

[paraven]

in my honest opinion, I dont think the ravens are in position to draft a QB in the first. If they do, they get the 5th or 6th best one, in what was supposed to be a weak QB class. Id be ok with the second round, but at 16, im not ok with taking the 5th of 6th best prospect at any position. 

[RavensTillIDie]

It depends on who else is there. I personally think Jackson is a top 3 QB in this class and could certainly live up to the pre-junior year hype, if placed in the right situation. I'm not entirely convinced Baltimore is the best fit for his talents, but that's more a question of the capabilities of our coaching staff vs the individual talent of Jackson. With that said, looking at a number of recent mock drafts, it's not looking like there will be many prospects I'm dead set on selecting at 16. So in all likelihood, the best case scenario is going to be trading down. However, if we are unable to facilitate a trade and had to choose between the likes of Calvin Ridley, Marcus Davenport, Connor Williams or Lamar Jackson, I'm saying we swing for the fences and go Jackson.

[diamondbull424]

9 minutes ago, paraven said:

in my honest opinion, I dont think the ravens are in position to draft a QB in the first. If they do, they get the 5th or 6th best one, in what was supposed to be a weak QB class. Id be ok with the second round, but at 16, im not ok with taking the 5th of 6th best prospect at any position. 

That’s just the thing, is Jackson really the 5th or 6th best quarterback? When watching tape of Josh Allen and Mason Rudolph, just on a quarterbacking level, they are not better than Jackson.

Allen has a stronger arm but has little poise in the pocket and is less accurate than Jackson, he’s a poor man’s Flacco. Rudolph is of similar accuracy and pocket poise to Jackson. Gets the ball in the vicinity and extends plays, but has less arm strength and very little mobility.

I would also put Jackson above Rosen because of legitimate durability concerns (not simply assumed concerns such as with Jackson). I think Mayfield and Jackson are on a similar level as prospects. Mayfield is more accurate, but Jackson is better making plays with his feet. Jackson is probably a 2nd round talent as a passer (not considering athleticism or QB inflation), but is a freak athlete you see once per generation.

 

[berlin calling]

i'm not sure i'd want someone with his build starting as a dual threat in the AFCN. i can't see him lasting very long just for the physical  punishment alone.

otoh, as the Ravens can't draft WR anyway why bother to do so when you have Jackson and RGIII on the squad. just have them run the option 30+ times a game. just kidding. 

[paraven]

18 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

That’s just the thing, is Jackson really the 5th or 6th best quarterback? When watching tape of Josh Allen and Mason Rudolph, just on a quarterbacking level, they are not better than Jackson.

Allen has a stronger arm but has little poise in the pocket and is less accurate than Jackson, he’s a poor man’s Flacco. Rudolph is of similar accuracy and pocket poise to Jackson. Gets the ball in the vicinity and extends plays, but has less arm strength and very little mobility.

I would also put Jackson above Rosen because of legitimate durability concerns (not simply assumed concerns such as with Jackson). I think Mayfield and Jackson are on a similar level as prospects. Mayfield is more accurate, but Jackson is better making plays with his feet. Jackson is probably a 2nd round talent as a passer (not considering athleticism or QB inflation), but is a freak athlete you see once per generation.

 

I honestly havent watched enough tape to formulate my own opinion, but going off of what the scouts say, there must be a reason he is still considered a late round pick rather then a top pick. 

 

Id much rather go after a project qb like Mason Rudolph or Mike white in the 2nd or 3rd round (or jackson if he is there) and groom them for 2 years then let them take over for flacco then

[diamondbull424]

24 minutes ago, RavensTillIDie said:

It depends on who else is there. I personally think Jackson is a top 3 QB in this class and could certainly live up to the pre-junior year hype, if placed in the right situation. I'm not entirely convinced Baltimore is the best fit for his talents, but that's more a question of the capabilities of our coaching staff vs the individual talent of Jackson. With that said, looking at a number of recent mock drafts, it's not looking like there will be many prospects I'm dead set on selecting at 16. So in all likelihood, the best case scenario is going to be trading down. However, if we are unable to facilitate a trade and had to choose between the likes of Calvin Ridley, Marcus Davenport, Connor Williams or Lamar Jackson, I'm saying we swing for the fences and go Jackson.

This is the exact reason I’ve eventually come to this conclusion. We seem to be at a point in the draft where we might just miss out on other elite talent at positions that we would have more need in (Smith, Edmunds, James, Barkley, and Fitzpatrick)

I like Ridley, but I see more of a 900 yds, 5 TDs kind of guy. Certainly not bad, but if folks are lukewarm on C.J. Mosley, that would be the definition of a lukewarm pick.  Davenport is an athletic project, he doesn’t have any premier moves, or pop out to me on tape. I like Connor Williams, but he’s ultimately not a playmaker and that’s what we most need.

I’ve thought Jackson was a special talent since I first saw him, that teams would regret passing him up, but I also still believe we can win with Flacco and that such is the priority. That was the dilemma. However in two years, when his contract is up, Flacco will be 35 years old at retirements door. We will then have a very developed and pro-ready Lamar Jackson to take over with another three years left on his rookie contract. Aaron Rodgers sat 3 years behind Brett Favre before hitting the ground running. And that structure, similar to the Ozzie-DeCosta 5 year plan could make a lot of sense for the success of the franchise moving forward.

[diamondbull424]

14 minutes ago, paraven said:

I honestly havent watched enough tape to formulate my own opinion, but going off of what the scouts say, there must be a reason he is still considered a late round pick rather then a top pick. 

 

Id much rather go after a project qb like Mason Rudolph or Mike white in the 2nd or 3rd round (or jackson if he is there) and groom them for 2 years then let them take over for flacco then

1. Watch tape on the top quarterbacks and tell me what you see. It’s pretty clear to see his playmaking ability as both a passer and rusher on tape.

2. He’s likely considered a late round pick for a couple reasons. a) This quarterback class has three exceptional QB talents outside of Jackson in Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield. b) Dual threat quarterbacks always present a controversy with the league when they come out (Locker, Manziel, Tebow, Mayfield). c) Same with black quarterbacks (Watson, Bridgewater, Wilson). Lastly d) these are analysts projecting him to fall that far in the draft, not necessarily scouts

3. Jackson is a better passer of the ball than Teddy Bridgewater from Louisville, who has already made a pro bowl and has a career passer rating of 88. He’s also arguably just as dangerous with the ball as Mike Vick. These same analysts didn’t take Deshaun Watson seriously as a passer either. And that was in a worse QBing class. Watson likely would have been considered a fringe 1st/2nd round QB in this class as well.

[DontTazeMeBro]

He’s my first choice and I wouldn’t want to take any of the other QBs if they fell to us. Aside from the talent which is obvious, remembering what a much less accurate Michael Vick was able to do with Marty is really exciting 

[wackywabbit]

Been saying this all offseason. 

[coordinator0]

6 hours ago, berlin calling said:

i'm not sure i'd want someone with his build starting as a dual threat in the AFCN. i can't see him lasting very long just for the physical  punishment alone.

otoh, as the Ravens can't draft WR anyway why bother to do so when you have Jackson and RGIII on the squad. just have them run the option 30+ times a game. just kidding. 

The days of the AFCN being a punishing division to play in are long over. Pittsburgh's defense is soft and Baltimore's isn't quite intimidating. The Browns... well, are the Browns (but I think their offense will be nice!) and the Bengals are about the same as the Ravens. So no, I'm not particularly worried about the punishment Jackson ould/will take in the NFL. At least not in terms of the AFCN versus the other divisions.

[coordinator0]

And as for the topic, like I said in the other thread I'm totally behind Baltimore drafting Jackson. He could single-handedly make the running game viable in the redzone, which is huge. As we all know it gets much harder to run the ball when the defense has less ground to cover/spread out in but with Lamar's talent/threat with the ball in his hands... whew. This isn't anything new with a running quarterback but he might be the best at it to come out in a long time. Newton is great, but he does it differently too. I'm a bigger fan of the electric potential than the huge, punishing train. Especially at quarterback. 

The question is his throwing ability, but I don't think he's too far off there. I'm a believer in Jackson's upside and think his chances of figuring it out and becoming a real problem for defenses in the NFL are high. 

Will Baltimore take that gamble? Eh, probably not despite some recent media hype (which has been proven to be smoke time and time again when it comes for the Ravens and the draft) but here's hoping.

And for what it's worth... the idea of Guice is growing on me. Still think the Ravens are fine at running back but he's definitely in a different mold/class than the guys they have now. Too bad Baltimore couldn't get both Lamar and Derrius in a few weeks. 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

I'd like to weigh in on the OP because I'm a fan of Lamar Jackson and think he should be the 1st QB taken, but obviously won't be.

Quote

Detractors might point to us having to switch systems to accommodate Jackson. But consider that we’re picking up RGIII; have drafted Tyrod Taylor (11’) and Troy Smith (07’); and Harbaugh/Mornhinweg have worked extensively with a dual threat QB in Donovan McNabb in Philly. Obviously our front office has a comfortability with selecting that kind of talent and our coaching staff has a comfortability with mentoring those types of talents. I’m sure we were already going to incorporate wrinkles into the playbook for RGIII, adding Jackson only increases the amount of wrinkles we might add.

The main criticism from me is that given our history, there's nothing to really indicate that we'll use Jackson to his fullest potential -- and what I mean by that is I don't think we're going to let him play in a system that lets him run around and truly utilize his legs and athleticism. The fact that we pick up dual threat guys doesn't mean we use them effectively. We didn't use Tyrod as a scrambling QB, we used him as a backup for a pocket passer, and when he played we primarily used him as a pocket passer. Same thing with Troy Smith. Now, I have no idea what we're going to do with RGIII, but I suspect it'll be much of the same. Donovan McNabb in Philly was also mainly a pocket passer.

In terms of us adding wrinkles in the playbook for our backup QB who is already a major injury risk, I doubt it.

It makes sense to select Jackson if you're adding RGIII to be a mentor for Jackson when we inevitably pick him at 16, but the biggest thing is that we would have to completely revamp our system to look much more like Seattle or Buffalo than anything else. The thing that gives me optimism is that we've seen what Greg Roman can design with a mobile QB. We saw it in SF with Kaepernick. However, I haven't seen the same with Marty nor do I trust him to actually follow through with that.

That's the only reservation I have with Jackson - a lack of trust in the coaching staff to do two key things:

1. Coach him up adequately to improve his passing from the pocket, and

2. Accept that the Flacco era is over and start revamping our scheme to usher in the Jackson era

IF our coaching staff was able to revamp the system to fit Jackson's strengths instead of trying to fit Jackson into the existing system, I would be on board. I just don't see that happening. I see us trying to fit Jackson into the system and run with him as primarily a pocket passer, and I think that will fail. 

[coordinator0]

For what it's worth I don't really have confidence in the coaching staff being able to properly utilize or develop any prospect the Ravens could take... so give me the player that might be able to make the most impact all on his own. Is that Jackson? Yeah, probably although he obviously has to progress a bit to truly become an offensive threat. He's at least in the conversation. Guice, another guy I'm really starting to hope for, is in there as well. If a running back is good at the things Derrius does, he translates. Simple, and mostly safe barring injuries.

Whatever Baltimore does, the organization has to hit at the top of the draft. Guys that can play and contribute now. The team isn't in a position to keep drafting depth and whatnot highly. They're on the downswing as a whole and Flacco isn't going to get any better. 

[DontTazeMeBro]

If the coaching staff is a problem I think the better solution than not drafting him would be to get a new coaching staff 

But we have Marty who Vick was an MVP contender with. Roman who Kaepernick dominated with for a couple years. So I don’t see why this should because a problem