e16bball Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 The publicly available advanced metrics for the NBA grossly overvalue high shooting percentages, with no sufficient way to provide context as to the nature/difficulty of those shots. This is how guys like Rudy Gobert and DeAndre Jordan and Dwight Howard find their way onto the leaderboards, even in terms of offensive win shares, which is a patently absurd result. They are excellent at finishing off plays that other guys create for them, which makes them look like highly efficient and effective offensive machines — but they’re largely useless when asked to create for themselves or anyone else, which renders their actual offensive contribution in the team context substantially less meaningful. At the time they did the Wall extension, it was awfully close to a no-brainer. The team had just come within a Kelly Olynyk fluke of the ECF, despite having almost no bench to speak of, and they had just matched the max offer for Otto Porter. Refusing to offer the max extension to their best player — and immediately creating a fairly urgent need to trade him — would have been mindnumbingly silly, given the posture of the team at that moment. And there should be no doubt that he was their best player, or that he appeared for all the world to be a blossoming superstar. He was coming off a season where he posted 23 and 10 (nearly 11) at age 26. How many other players in history have posted seasons averaging a double double with assists and 23+ points a game at that age? Two. Oscar Robertson and Tiny Archibald. Making Wall the only player in the last 45 years to accomplish that feat at such a young age. He posted a 23+ PER as a PG, and he accomplished that feat despite a down year shooting the 3 — he actually shot it better from deep the previous year and the following year. He was coming off a postseason that ended disappointingly in Game 7, but during which he averaged 27 and 10. How many other players have ever done that over the course of a single postseason? Two. Oscar Robertson and John Stockton. And Wall is the only one who sustained that pace for multiple series (each of those HOFers went one and done when they posted their 27 and 10 postseason averages). He was on pace to be easily among the top two players in franchise history. He had just played in his 4th All-Star game, and he was considered by many/most to be on the ascent from stardom to possible superstardom. And what’s most important of all, he actually wanted to play for the Wizards — possibly the first true star player in the FA era who felt that way. No one in DC was going to tell the guy “nope, you’re not worth it” at that time. It was truly a no-brainer, especially after they matched Otto’s offer sheet and were capped out for the foreseeable future anyway. Obviously, it’s all gone horribly wrong thereafter. Wall has clearly never been healthy (or in basketball shape) since then, and his game and availability (and effort when available) have both suffered immensely. It’s a god awful contract now, absolutely untraceable, because there’s nothing left but sheer blind hope that he comes back and provides anything of value. But the fact that it all went to hell in a handbasket doesn’t mean it was a bad/wrong idea at the time. It just means that of the entire range of reasonably possible outcomes of the deal, they somehow managed to roll snake eyes and ended up with the absolute worst case scenario. Again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 12 hours ago, MKnight82 said: Define talented. He was never a “franchise player” imo. He has never been a top 30 player in the nba. He’s not a star, he is at best the 2nd best player on a contender. Nah, he was. 2016/2017 definitely. In the late teens/20's but he was there. I can't defend the contract, i thought they had to do it. It's backfired definitely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsin2013 Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 (edited) https://www.forbes.com/sites/bryantoporek/2019/07/24/an-extension-makes-no-financial-sense-for-bradley-beal-in-2019/#4252c53f5792 Why would he take it? He could possibly DOUBLE his new $$$. 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 New $$ Total Extension now $27.1M $28.8M $34.5M $37.3M $40.0M - - $111.8M $167.6M Extension next summer $27.1M $28.8M $34.5M $37.3M $40.0M $42.8M - $154.6M $210.4M Supermax next summer $27.1M $28.8M $43.8M $47.3M $50.8M $54.3M $57.8M $253.8M $309.6M Edited July 25, 2019 by Skinsin2013 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 6 minutes ago, Skinsin2013 said: https://www.forbes.com/sites/bryantoporek/2019/07/24/an-extension-makes-no-financial-sense-for-bradley-beal-in-2019/#4252c53f5792 Why would he take it? He could possibly DOUBLE his new $$$. 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 New $$ Total Extension now $27.1M $28.8M $34.5M $37.3M $40.0M $111.8M $167.6M Extension next summer $27.1M $28.8M $34.5M $37.3M $40.0M $42.8M $154.6M $210.4M Supermax next summer $27.1M $28.8M $43.8M $47.3M $50.8M $54.3M $57.8M $253.8M $309.6M Just to fix that chart because it is a little confusing... 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 New $ Extension now $27.1M $28.8M $34.5M $37.3M $40.0M $111.8M $167.6M Extension next summer $27.1M $28.8M $34.5M $37.3M $40.0M $42.8M $154.6M $210.4M Supermax next summer $27.1M $28.8M $43.8M $47.3M $50.8M $54.3M $57.8M $253.8M $309.6M 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsin2013 Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 Just now, MikeT14 said: Just to fix that chart because it is a little confusing... 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 New $ Extension now $27.1M $28.8M $34.5M $37.3M $40.0M $111.8M $167.6M Extension next summer $27.1M $28.8M $34.5M $37.3M $40.0M $42.8M $154.6M $210.4M Supermax next summer $27.1M $28.8M $43.8M $47.3M $50.8M $54.3M $57.8M $253.8M $309.6M I think we were editing at the same time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woz Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 8 hours ago, e16bball said: The team had just come within a Kelly Olynyk fluke of the ECF, despite having almost no bench to speak of, and they had just matched the max offer for Otto Porter. and 8 hours ago, e16bball said: It was truly a no-brainer, especially after they matched Otto’s offer sheet and were capped out for the foreseeable future anyway. and 8 hours ago, e16bball said: It just means that of the entire range of reasonably possible outcomes of the deal, they somehow managed to roll snake eyes and ended up with the absolute worst case scenario. Again. While they could not have foreseen the injury, the matching of Porter's offer sheet made the super max contract untenable. Well, that and spending any meaningful amount of money on Ian Mahinmi. As you point out, they had no bench to speak of. The only way they were going to get depth was either via free agency, the draft, or via a trade. Given Grunfeld's hatred of second round picks and the limited resources they had in terms of other talent, free agency was realistically the only option if they wanted to keep Beal and Wall ... but then they ate the space with Porter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted August 1, 2019 Author Share Posted August 1, 2019 My man! Can’t wait to watch this guy play again! I hope he takes another big step this year and averages in the high teens in points, like 16 or 17ppg and around 10 rebounds a game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted August 3, 2019 Author Share Posted August 3, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted August 8, 2019 Author Share Posted August 8, 2019 Wall believes he and Beal 'need another shot at it.' https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/video/john-wall-believes-he-and-bradley-beal-have-unfinished-business?ls=social-vid 2020-21 here we come w/ another lottery pick added to the frontcourt w/ Beal leading the team and Wall playing second fiddle now by setting up Beal and others more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted August 8, 2019 Author Share Posted August 8, 2019 (edited) On 7/25/2019 at 12:23 PM, Woz said: and and While they could not have foreseen the injury, the matching of Porter's offer sheet made the super max contract untenable. Well, that and spending any meaningful amount of money on Ian Mahinmi. As you point out, they had no bench to speak of. The only way they were going to get depth was either via free agency, the draft, or via a trade. Given Grunfeld's hatred of second round picks and the limited resources they had in terms of other talent, free agency was realistically the only option if they wanted to keep Beal and Wall ... but then they ate the space with Porter. Yeah, I wanted keep Porter but regularly admit I was wrong about that. They should have given Bogdanovic the contract that the Pacers did and if they had, they could have signed a better back up guard and PF/C type and BoBuckets would have been on the team last year and they could have just re-signed him this offseason. Although, Mike Scott turned out to be a heck of a move as a back up PF. Also, if they hadn't matched Otto’s max offer they could have re-signed Mike Scott to be their 6th/7th man last season and he probably would have ended up starting bc Morris continued to struggle with injuries. Edited August 8, 2019 by turtle28 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsin2013 Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 Giving Otto a max wasn't smart. Giving Wall a supermax was incredibly dumb. That's the biggest problem they'll face until that contract is up. The only positive that comes from it is they're forced to build with young talent. Trading Beal, adding another lottery pick or two, would be ideal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted August 8, 2019 Author Share Posted August 8, 2019 42 minutes ago, Skinsin2013 said: Giving Otto a max wasn't smart. Giving Wall a supermax was incredibly dumb. That's the biggest problem they'll face until that contract is up. The only positive that comes from it is they're forced to build with young talent. Trading Beal, adding another lottery pick or two, would be ideal. I can't remember, couldn't they have waited with Wall? I feel like Wall was still under contract wasn't he? Then, they gave him the Super Max as an extension. If they had waited another year to give Wall an extension then, they wouldn't have had to do the super max bc Wall got injured in 2018 & 2019. I never thought about that before, for some reason it just popped in my head. Bad GMing by Ernie. He did just enough to make us competitive in the eastern conference but that's it. The contracts he dealt out were bad too, especially after he couldn't even get a meeting w/ Durant but still signed Nicholson and Mahinmi. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted August 14, 2019 Author Share Posted August 14, 2019 I don't know if this will work, but it's definitely a name fans recognize, which can’t hurt! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woz Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 1 minute ago, turtle28 said: I don't know if this will work, but it's definitely a name fans recognize, which can’t hurt! Counterpoint: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isiah_Thomas#New_York_Knicks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted August 14, 2019 Author Share Posted August 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, Woz said: Counterpoint: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isiah_Thomas#New_York_Knicks Really Woz? Isaiah Thomas (NYK) was given a roll like Ernie Grunfeld's or Tommy Shepard’s with no experience. Antawn has just a pro personnel position. That’s not an accurate comparison. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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