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jrry32

Jrry32 Second to Last Mock Draft

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Posted (edited)
Well, the Draft is less than two weeks away, so this will be my second to last mock. I was originally going to assume that Jeff Holland and Shaquem Griffin weren't available to get some new blood in the mock. In that scenario, Kemoko Turay would have been my first pick. However, I have decided to base player availability off of Dane Brugler's 7 Round Mock Draft. Nevertheless, I am not going to honor it strictly. Rather, I'll limit myself to players drafted in that range or later, so you'll see a few guys who were drafted a few slots ahead in his mock, but when we're talking about Day 3, you're not going to predict it perfectly, so I think the margin of error of a few draft slots is fair. The only player who was taken a lot higher than where I drafted him is Jack Cichy, but I think the injuries will hinder his draft stock more than Brugler does. With this being my second to last mock, there are no trades. My final mock might include a trade or two.
 
NFL Draft
Round 3 Pick #23 - Jeff Holland OLB Auburn
Analysis: You may not have heard of Jeff Holland (until I put him in basically all of my mocks haha) as he only has one year of starting experience, but he made the most of that year by posting 45 tackles, 13 TFLs, 10 sacks, and 4 FFs in his only year starting in the SEC. What stood out to me while watching Holland is all of the stats that won't show up on the box score. I don't know if I've seen another guy in this class who pressures the QB as much as Holland. Watching his bowl game against UCF, he pressured the QB on almost every single passing play. At 6'1" 249 pounds with 33.5 arms and 10.5 hands, Holland has very long arms and big hands for his size. He definitely fits the mold of a 3-4 OLB. Holland uses his long arms and big hands to win consistently as an edge rusher. He has some of the most polished hand usage and sophisticated pass rush plans in this class. Holland actually has taken martial arts training to improve his hand fighting ability. As it stands now, his go-to moves are the two-handed swipe and the rip and run. Holland consistently wins off the edge by using his advanced hand usage, outstanding punch timing, natural leverage, and polished body positioning to thwart the attempts of tackles to push him past the pocket. Holland's powerful lower body and great balance also allow him to flatten out when turning the corner and prevent OTs from riding him past the QB. Young pass rushers should watch Holland's film to learn how to use their inside arm to soften the edge. Simply put, Holland won't be a workout warrior and doesn't have the prettiest looking body, but he wins as a pass rusher with technical skill, football IQ, heavy hands, power, balance, and tenaciousness. He actually posted comparable production to Carl Lawson, who posted 8.5 sacks as a rookie with the Bengals in 2017. As a run defender, Holland uses his natural leverage, power, and advanced hand usage to set a hard edge. He has some tightness in his lower body which limits his ability to drop into coverage and prevents him from reaching his full potential as a finisher and as a run defender in space, but Holland is a tenacious pass rusher who should drive NFL QBs crazy with his constant pressure.
 
Round 4 Pick #11 - Geron Christian OT Louisville
Analysis: Geron Christian started every game during his college career for Louisville, including his entire true freshman season. At 6'5" 298 pounds with 35 inch arms and 10.75 inch hands, Christian is not lacking for NFL measurables. Louisville's scheme asks their OTs to flip between LT and RT during the game, so Christian has ample experience at both spots, which makes him an ideal player for a swing OT role as a rookie. As a pass protector, Christian is remarkably steady. He is a natural bender who sits comfortably in his space, mirrors with ease, has light feet and smooth change of directional skills, and positions himself well to not give DLs easy pressure or sacks. Christian lost very few snaps in pass protection in the film I watched. He uses his length, smooth athleticism, and great balance to frustrate pass rushers trying to get the better of him. The only two criticisms I have of him as a pass protector are that he needs to be more precise with his punch placement and he needs to get stronger. With his punch placement, his hands have a tendency to end up outside on the DL. With his functional strength, he needs a stronger anchor against bull rushers. He does a nice job of recovering when he's initial beat with a bull rush, but he gives a bit too much ground at times. As a run blocker, Christian definitely needs to get stronger. He doesn't generate a lot of movement in the ground game. He's more an angle and positioning blocker. He's steady in that regard and rarely blows assignments, but he also doesn't blow people off the ball. All in all, he's a guy who can step in and hold his own as a rookie swing OT, and if he gets stronger in the NFL, he has starting OT potential down the line. At only 21 years old, Christian has time to develop his game.
 
Round 4 Pick #35 - Jack Cichy ILB Wisconsin
Analysis: Cichy is just a really good football player and should make all of you worried about Littleton quite happy. The problem for him is his injury history. He missed all of 2017 with a torn ACL, and he missed half of the 2016 season with a torn pectoral muscle. However, I think it's worth the risk because he's a Day 2 talent on tape. Cichy is a very smart and sound football player who possesses good athleticism for his size. At 6'2" 238 pounds with solid arm length, Cichy has the dimensions of a NFL ILB. While Cichy won't overpower blockers, he is quite adept at slipping blocks due to his advanced hand usage and agility. He sifts through traffic well, plays with consistent gap integrity, and tackles well, even in space. Cichy also reads his keys well and rarely takes false steps. The thing that stands out the most is Cichy's ability to close when he gets a path to the runner. He may not run a 4.4 40, but he plays fast. As a blitzer, Cichy is highly effective due to his outstanding anticipation of the snap count and his hand usage when rushing the passer. He puts a lot of pressure on the QB when used on A-gap blitzes. His cover skills are good; although, he's a better zone defender than man defender. Cichy also has that sort of annoying style that gets into the heads of offensive players. He plays through the whistle, is constantly buzzing around opposing players, and has a non-stop motor. All in all, Cichy checks all the boxes and should contribute in the NFL if he stays healthy. He'll be great depth at ILB and can contribute on special teams.
 
Round 4 Pick #36 - John Kelly Jr. HB Tennessee
Analysis: John Kelly might be the most underrated HB in this Draft. He was unlucky enough to play on a Tennessee team that couldn't run block or throw the ball. It reminded me of Todd Gurley last year. He was constantly hit behind the LOS and rarely had a decent running lane. This is a guy who ran for more yardage last year than Alvin Kamara on less carries. Kelly Jr. doesn't have Kamara's speed, but like Kamara, I expect him to be a much better pro than college player. At 5'10" 210, Kelly has a good HB build. He combines plus quickness with great balance, outstanding strength, and a real mean streak. He rarely goes down on first contact, he runs angry, and he finishes with authority. He also has the quickness to make guys miss in the back-field and in the open-field. Kelly only has solid overall speed, but he has good burst. In the passing game, he's a very dangerous receiver due to the sharpness of his routes and cuts and his soft hands (as well as his ability to make people miss and break tackles in space). His pass protection needs work, but he doesn't lack the strength or willingness. He looks to punish people when blocking, but he needs to learn how to use his hands better, stop ducking his head into blocks, stay square to defenders, and be more patient. I expect him to learn quickly in the NFL. Overall, he has the potential to be a three-down HB and a very dangerous receiver in the passing game.
 
Round 6 Pick #2 - Tony Adams C/OG N.C. State
Analysis: Tony Adams is a guy I just recently stumbled upon after reading Lance Zierlein's sleeper list. As y'all know, I'm a big fan of Zierlein's OL evaluations, and I must agree that Adams is a sleeper in this Draft. At 6'1" 302 pounds, Adams is going to be overlooked for his lack of height. However, he has 33.5 inch arms, which more than compensate for that lack of height. Adams is a four-year starter at RG and team captain. He did play some Center as a freshman, and that's where I think he ends up in the NFL. Adams is a former high school wrestler and tennis star. You can see both of those sports in his game as he has the upper body strength and hand-eye coordination that you expect from a wrestler with the quality footwork and great balance you expect from a tennis player. Adams rarely falls off blocks, positions himself beautifully when executing his blocking assignments, and is very comfortable blocking in space and on the second level. He times his punches well, he's very reliable in pass protection, and he executes his assignments consistently as a run blocker. What are his weaknesses? He only possesses average overall strength, so he doesn't generate a lot of push in the running game, and he can get pushed back by very strong DTs. Nevertheless, he uses angles and positioning well in the running game to open up holes, and he competes hard as a pass protector. I think Adams would be an outstanding fit in our scheme because of his versatility and how well he fits the Center position in Kromer's blocking scheme. This kid may not be a HOFer, but he strikes me as a guy who has the ability to be a very solid starting Center for a long time in the right scheme.
 
Round 6 Pick #9 - Tegray Scales ILB Indiana
Analysis: Tegray Scales has been a tremendously productive LB for Indiana with 214 tackles, 36.5 TFLs, 13 sacks, and 3 Ints over the past two years. At 6'0" 230 pounds with nearly 31 inch arms and 9 inch hands, Scales is on the small side for a 3-4 ILB. However, Scales plays the game with a ferocious brand of physicality and a real mean streak. While his timed speed is nothing special, Scales plays fast and absolutely flies to the football. There are times when Scales knows where the play is going before the ball is even snapped. It is clear that he invests a lot of time into film review. He is rarely in the wrong spot, he rarely takes false steps, and he is always around the football. In coverage, Scales is adequate but not elite. He doesn't possess overly fluid hips and is a bit stiff in his backpedal. Nevertheless, he looks better in man coverage because of his short-area quickness and instincts. Scales truly shines as a run stopper and a blitzer. As a blitzer, he times his blitzes incredibly well, uses his hands to fight off blocks, and is relentless in his pursuit of the QB. As a run stopper, Scales is fearless taking on blockers and flies to the football. Scales is a bit limited by his short arms and lack of size. This makes it difficult for him to come unglued once OLs latch onto him. However, he's a strong and physical players who will stack up blocks and tenaciously fight to get off blocks. I've seen him stand up and fight off Billy Price. He also has absolutely no fear when it comes to meeting pullers and lead blockers in the hole. Scales is undersized, but he loves to bang and finds the ball quickly. Scales looks like he's shot out of a cannon once he determines where the ball is going. He does need to do a better job of bringing his feet with him as a tackler, as he'll miss tackles at times by coming in a little too hot, but he brings bad intentions when he hits, and guys usually go down quickly.
 
Round 6 Pick #20 - Logan Woodside QB Toledo
Analysis: Woodside is my favorite Day 3 developmental QB in this Draft. As you all know, I look for traits in players on Day 3. What stands out to me in Woodside's game are his mental processing speed, ability to throw with anticipation, and his touch. At 6'1" 213 pounds, Woodside is smaller than average for a NFL QB, but he does have nearly 10 inch hands (for all those hand size worrywarts out there) and is a good athlete. He was an extremely productive player at Toledo, throwing for over 10,000 yards, 93 TDs to 25 Ints, and a 65.1% completion percentage in his three years as a starter. Woodside has below average arm strength, which manifests itself on sideline routes to the field side. Toledo's offense did force Woodside to make challenging throws. Woodside responded by doing so in impressive fashion. He made a number of "wow" throws in each game. His ability to thread the needle into tight windows was constantly on display at Toledo. Woodside's quality accuracy and tremendous touch allowed him to make a number of NFL caliber throws. His anticipation and mental processing ability also stood out in a major way. Those three traits (mental processing speed, anticipation, and touch) are NFL starting QB caliber traits. Woodside also has polished mechanics, good pocket movement, and the willingness to stand tall and deliver despite knowing he'll take a shot. He's not a QB who abandons the pocket early or sees ghosts when pressure is getting home. On the negative side, I'd like to see Woodside do a better job of finding his HB out of the back-field when blitzed, avoid taking unnecessary sacks, and avoid bad decisions. Woodside has a bit of a hero complex, so he needs to learn to not force the ball late in downs. I believe he's a great developmental prospect for McVay to develop because his mental traits and technical skill are both highly impressive. McVay is the type of coach who can scheme around physical limitations, and Woodside is the type of QB who can read coverages, find the open WR, and deliver the ball in the right spot. I think he can execute our scheme.
 
Round 6 Pick #21 - Damon Webb FS Ohio State
Analysis: Webb started his career at CB at Ohio State before moving to safety in 2016. In 2017, Webb recorded 62 tackles and picked off 5 passes. He showed marked improvement at safety as the year progressed. At 5'11" 209 pounds, Webb is a tad undersized, but he makes up for that with his natural coverage ability, quality angles, and reliable tackling. Webb is an intelligent player who brings a lot of versatility to the position. He can cover the slot WR, play single-high, play Cover 2, and even come down into the box. He's not an especially great player in the box due to his lack of size, but he can hold his own. One area where he improved significantly in 2017 was reading the QB while playing deep zone coverage. He showed off quality range while playing single-high and the ball-skills to come down with interceptions. He also brings a lot of energy and effort while on the field. You never have to worry about whether he'll take plays off or quit before the whistle. Webb is a solid athlete for a safety, but he's not athletic enough to play anything other than slot CB if needed. I'd like to see Webb get a bit stronger, as he struggles at times to tackle bigger players in space. All in all, Webb is a smart, sound football player who has the potential to develop into a starting FS in Wade's defense.
 
Projected Starters
QB: Jared Goff
HB: Todd Gurley
WR: Brandin Cooks
WR: Robert Woods
WR: Cooper Kupp
TE: Gerald Everett
LT: Andrew Whitworth
LG: Rodger Saffold
C: John Sullivan
RG: Jamon Brown
RT: Rob Havenstein
 
SDE: Michael Brockers
NT: Ndamukong Suh
DT: Aaron Donald
WOLB: Matt Longacre
WILB: Mark Barron
SILB: Cory Littleton
SOLB: Samson Ebukam
LCB: Marcus Peters
RCB: Aqib Talib
SLCB: Nickell Robey-Coleman
FS: LaMarcus Joyner
SS: John Johnson III
 
K: Greg Zuerlein
P: Johnny Hekker
LS: Jake McQuaide
Edited by jrry32

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Honestly, really love it.  My mock also has Holland, Cichy, and Kelly in it (who I think will end up as a steal).  I would be ELATED if this was the results of our draft, honestly.

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1 hour ago, BEASToftheEAST4 said:

Really think Scales would fall that far? 

Like I said, I based it on the Brugler mock. But that's where NFLDS has him. I think it's likely because of his lack of size + short arms + mediocre timed speed. However, I could see him going pretty much anywhere on Day 3.

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I know you love him, but I think there will be better talent available at 87 than Jeff Holland. and I think he is very likely to still be there at 111

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2 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

I know you love him, but I think there will be better talent available at 87 than Jeff Holland. and I think he is very likely to still be there at 111

There ain't.

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20 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

There ain't.

I think your man crush has grown too much to be able to see anyone above him at this point. His size makes him scheme limited, which takes out about half the league from drafting him.

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3 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

I think your man crush has grown too much to be able to see anyone above him at this point. His size makes him scheme limited, which takes out about half the league from drafting him.

Which has nothing to do with how successful he'd be in our scheme.

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24 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Which has nothing to do with how successful he'd be in our scheme.

I didnt say it did, but it definitely has an effect on his draft value. Which is why I said I believe there will be better draft talent available at #87. And he would still likely be available at #111. Tats all Im saying

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Just now, StLunatic88 said:

I didnt say it did, but it definitely has an effect on his draft value. Which is why I said I believe there will be better draft talent available at #87. And he would still likely be available at #111. Tats all Im saying

And what I said is that I don't feel there will be better talent available. I've always said that I don't like to try and thread the needle when drafting a guy. I'd rather take Holland at #87 than wait until #111 and risk him going at #110. Because if he goes before us, I lose the player I thought was the best pick at #87. IMO, it's not worth it.

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5 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

And what I said is that I don't feel there will be better talent available. I've always said that I don't like to try and thread the needle when drafting a guy. I'd rather take Holland at #87 than wait until #111 and risk him going at #110. Because if he goes before us, I lose the player I thought was the best pick at #87. IMO, it's not worth it.

And Im saying he is a Top 125 player, not a Top 100 player, so at #87 he is an actual reach, not just ensuring you get the guy you want.

It would make much more sense, if he was a guy we are targeting (not sure we are), to use one or two of those 6th rounders to jump up 5-6 spots from #111 to make sure we get him. That is how you ensure you get your guy, not take him an entire round too early when there is better talent on the board.

Now, if Holland is truely like a Top 75 talent on your board that is a very different conversation, but as you talk of "threading the needle" it seems he is not.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

And Im saying he is a Top 125 player, not a Top 100 player, so at #87 he is an actual reach, not just ensuring you get the guy you want.

It would make much more sense, if he was a guy we are targeting (not sure we are), to use one or two of those 6th rounders to jump up 5-6 spots from #111 to make sure we get him. That is how you ensure you get your guy, not take him an entire round too early when there is better talent on the board.

Now, if Holland is truely like a Top 75 talent on your board that is a very different conversation, but as you talk of "threading the needle" it seems he is not.

And I'm saying that I don't agree with you. I don't care whether others have him ranked. I like him more than guys like Nwosu and Turay who are supposed to go much earlier. And that's not what I mean by threading the needle. Threading the needle means waiting to take a guy you're higher on because you think others aren't as high. It would be akin to me waiting until the 3rd round last year to take Cooper Kupp.

Edited by jrry32

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3 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

It would be akin to me waiting until the 3rd round last year to take Cooper Kupp.

Sooooo right where he actually went? A Top 75 guy, who was picked at #69... in the 3rd round? 

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