Drafting big-armed QBs that flop

[JaguarCrazy2832]

Is anyone else frustrated by the constant attention that big-armed QBs with accuracy/anticipation issues get year after year? As if GMs remember you cant teach size and arm strength but teaching someone mechanics and how to be accurate is so easy. Does this frustrate you guys as well? Just seems like every year there are guys rated so much higher on boards because they are 6'6'' and can throw it a mile and for the most part those guys dont get the help they need. I feel like part of this is because of another thread I've mentioned before where guys that need to develop and are drafted highly are never afforded the opportunity to sit for long anymore before they are thrust into the starting role. 

I guess the high-potential is something teams salivate over like a pitcher with a rocket arm or a big man in basketball that is 7'0 and can move but does anyone think this is a constant issue in the NFL?

[MWil23]

Fair or not, physical measureables can’t be taught or coached so they’ll always be overvalued to a degree.

Size, speed, arm strength, etc.

[Don Roshi]

Has a "raw" QB prospect ever actually worked out? Especially one with a poor college career.

[JaguarCrazy2832]

38 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Fair or not, physical measureables can’t be taught or coached so they’ll always be overvalued to a degree.

Size, speed, arm strength, etc.

I get that it cant be taught but can accuracy be successfully taught? How many guys that were inaccurate in college turned out to be accurate in the pros? Even if they improve, the difference between a college defense and NFL is still probably a larger gap. 

[Ozzy]

Best arm talents at QB since 1998 I would say arguably, based on who impressed the most throwing the football in college.

 

Matthew Stafford

Jay Cutler

JaMarcus Russell

Michael Vick

Carson Palmer

Drew Brees

 

 

In terms of this years talent I would say these three have the best arm in this order.  Rosen is more accuracy than just having this rocket arm though, but does have a decent deep ball.  Josh Allen and Jackson could arguably be included in the above list of best arm talents arguably but will see, Allen sure did look great at the combine throwing.  Josh Allen sure was not productive as much this JR season but as a SOPH he was damn good I thought and that is very similar to Carson Wentz.  Wentz had a sub par SR year but most of that was due to injury but still, similar size, similar ability on the move and able to throw on the move and coached obviously under the same head coach.  So not as afraid about Allen if he is given time to develop.

 

Josh Allen

Lamar Jackson 

Josh Rosen 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other guys with big arms coming into the league I thought in no real specific order at all, either could throw it a really long ways or had crazy velocity on the football when they threw it.  And the fact this list has some super stars and some not is the reason you keep drafting guys with arm talent.  And arguably the only one without great production was Cardale Jones, and he did win a National Championship though but only had to play a few games to do it.  Still as a backup he is pretty solid I feel but will see how he does.

 

(* indicates was a 1st round pick)

EJ Manuel*

JP Losman*

Josh Freeman*

Joe Flacco*

Byron Leftwich*

Aaron Brooks

Michael Bishop

Marc Bulger

Tom Brady

Rohan Davey

Russell Wilson

David Garrard

Derek Anderson

Omar Jacobs

Reggie McNeal

Bruce Gradkowski

Jordan Palmer

Andre Woodson

Nate Davis

Colin Kaepernick

Cam Newton*

Nick Foles

Mike Glennon

Zach Mettenberger

Carson Wentz*

Cardale Jones

Mitchell Trubisky*

Patrick Mahomes II*

Ryan Leaf*

Akili Smith*

Daunte Culpepper*

Ben Roethlisberger*

Kyle Boller*

Chad Henne

Ryan Mallett

Jameis Winston*

Christian Hackenberg

 

But sure situation is as important as any, if certain players were drafted in a different spot and put in a different situation their career could be totally different.  Say Aaron Rodgers was drafted by the Lions, Bears, Bucs, Dolphins, Browns or 49ers, doubt his career would be exactly the same but who knows.  A guy like Hackenberg he was not very mobile and had terrible mechanics and really digressed in college.  A player like Josh Allen with his athletic ability and being able to throw on the move is huge for him, compared to a guy stuck in the pocket and not good outside of it.  Jamarcus Russell had that problem, odd release point and not great throwing on the move either.

 

And must say Michael Bishop had a cannon for an arm back in the day, could throw is so far and with such speed.  Was a great athlete as well, really would have ripped up college if he played in offensive systems around now a days.  And do have to be able to take some off the passes and not fire bullets every single time, which he did.  Mike Vick could gun it as well, similar to Lamar Jackson currently but had probably a stronger arm than Jackson potentially with a more tight release but Jackson has made great progress even from his SOPH to JR seasons.  Back to Bishop, he could apparently throw it well over 80 yards, great arm talent but very raw coming out.  

 

 

 

 

[DoleINGout]

@Ozzy I guess Cardale Jones' arm really left an impression on you.

[Scout]

Can't coach accuracy 

[Jlash]

I don't think Nick Foles has ever been considered a 'big arm' guy. 

[-Hope-]

6 hours ago, Don Roshi said:

Has a "raw" QB prospect ever actually worked out? Especially one with a poor college career.

this is my question. i can't think of a raw, toolsy QB who didn't even put up good college numbers ever working out in the NFL. as a fan of a team that took one such qb (jake locker) and watched him flame out, i just don't understand it.

[jrry32]

16 minutes ago, -Hope- said:

this is my question. i can't think of a raw, toolsy QB who didn't even put up good college numbers ever working out in the NFL. as a fan of a team that took one such qb (jake locker) and watched him flame out, i just don't understand it.

Brett Favre is all I can come up with right now.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/brett-favre-1.html

[jebrick]

I think College numbers can be a mirage these days with the spread offenses.  Example: Tyler Rogers of New Mexico St, was 6th in the nation in passing offense.  Do those stats mean anything for his draft status?

[Scout]

32 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Brett Favre is all I can come up with right now.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/brett-favre-1.html

He also beat FSU and Alabama though 

[Soko]

They get overdrafted for the same reason a guy like John Ross got overdrafted. Uncanny physical talent. 

I’m speculating, but I imagine coaches/GMs feel they can fix or make improvements to things like footwork or progressions, but arm strength not so much. And that’s pretty true, but when it comes to guys that need a complete re-tooling, it doesn’t often work out.

Not an across-the-board statement, but it’s an assumption. Favre and to a lesser extent Stafford, are more exceptions than anything else. 

[Ozzy]

1 hour ago, jrry32 said:

Brett Favre is all I can come up with right now.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/brett-favre-1.html

Not sure that would be a good example.  Favre was before my time but honestly he was pretty comparable to other QBs back in that day just based on stats, also where passing was not as easy as today and younger players were not as skilled with it passing or catching.  It was just a different era of football completely and even Marinovich who was a 1st rounder that year had similar stats at points compared to Favre early in college and I am sure he was surrounded by far better talent at USC, and Favre was still a 2nd rounder.  

 

 

As for the Jake Locker stuff, I never considered him a 'big arm' QB, he was talented and as an athlete was very thick and impressive, but he was never a great passer or a natural passer.  That senior year against Nebraska at home he looked awful in a huge game against a very solid D.  I just never believed Locker could be a big time guy, and his arm kind of sucked, sure he was strong but not really at literally passing the ball.

 

 

1 hour ago, Jlash said:

I don't think Nick Foles has ever been considered a 'big arm' guy. 

Sure could argue he was not some all time great big arm QB but the kid could sling it in college, could make all the throws without question and was a very pure passer I thought that threw a great looking ball and was quite accurate.  

 

 

3 hours ago, DoleINGout said:

@Ozzy I guess Cardale Jones' arm really left an impression on you.

What else is there for him to impress upon people?  Kid had a really big arm and could throw it extremely far.  He was not great in the pocket but when the ball left his hand it was impressive and it really is the main reason he was drafted because of that upside and raw throwing talent I think.   Was not as good with shorter passes though and that final SR year was not impressive either, still ok project QB for sure.     

[DoleINGout]

@Ozzy I keed, I keed. Jones popped up on your list twice.