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Sell Me On The Guys I'm Not High On


BleedTheClock

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Made this thread last year and had some of my viewpoints turned around. I'd love for that to happen again this year. Guys are not listed in any particular order btw...

 

Uchenna Nwosu DE/LB USC

"Solid burst off the line, but stuck between a LB'er and a DE. I think his best fit is as a 4-3 SLB, and even then, I don't see starter. He's been getting a lot of pub lately as a possible surprise 1st round pick. I don't think he goes in the first 3 rounds. That might be criminally low to most, but I just don't see it with this kid."

 

Taven Bryan DT Florida

"Just a bulldog with zero technique or hand usage. He's going to get obliterated on down blocks and trap blocks in the NFL. Very disruptive, but doesn't play sound gap football. He's all over the place from a fundamental standpoint. He's pretty much a lock for the 1st round according to most, but I wouldn't draft him until maybe the 3rd round."

 

Luke Falk QB Washington State

"Falk was benched this season. He is usually pretty accurate, but that fell off this year. Doesn't have a strong arm, isn't a great athlete, isn't very big. Just overall, very limited. I like his underneath accuracy, but he's just not built for the NFL. Played in an extremely QB-friendly scheme and had trouble producing despite this. Smart and accurate, but not toolsy enough for my liking."

 

John Kelly RB Tennessee

"Boring RB prospect. He's got great balance, but he isn't overly violent or fast. I think you have to be one or the other and Kelly isn't. He's got great agility and quicks, but without combining this with some sort of power, I don't see how he can be ranked so high."

 

Rashaad Penny RB San Diego State

"Almost the opposite of Kelly. He's big and fast, but he doesn't move laterally at all. Can't start and stop and takes forever to build up that impressive long speed. Doesn't use his size to his advantage and is more of a pure homerun hitter instead of a mean SOB. Vision is pretty bad, but it's not like he can cutback anyways. He's not nearly as big, but he reminds me a little of Beanie Wells--a soft but powerfully built runner. He is a great pass catcher and kick returner though, which will add to his value."

 

DJ Moore WR Maryland

"I don't see it. His tape is pretty good, but I'm always left perplexed with how he makes these plays. He's not very big and not very fast. Plus he runs a pretty boring route tree for the most part. Where he's amazing is after the catch. But still, I don't know if he's sudden enough to create consistent separation from NFL DB's. This one is a hard to put a finger on, because his tape kind of disspells my worries, but the way he wins is bizarre to me. He's seemingly always well covered barring a few complete breakdowns in the defense, but still makes the catch and gets some YAC as well."

 

Mike McGlinchey OT Notre Dame

"Gets roasted by speed rushers. He's pretty darn skinny and I have a feeling he'll get bullied by 5-Techniques in 3-4 defenses. He's got very good technique in his run blocking and even in his pass blocking, but I don't think his feet or his power will allow him to become a dominant OT. I've seen him mocked in the top 15. I wouldn't take him in the 1st round and am even skeptical of taking him in the 2nd. He's an average RT prospect to me."

 

Bradley Chubb DE NC State

"He's a good player for sure. But I don't have him as being the best DE in the draft, nor do I think he's worthy of a top 10 pick. He wins with effort and hustle, but he doesn't really have an edge dip or a nasty bull rush. He's just tenacious. This will make him a great player against the run, but I don't see big pass rush productivity out of Chubb. If I'm taking a DE in the top 10, he better be able to generate double digit sacks consistently. I don't think that's Chubb. He's got almost 0 chance to bust, but he's nowhere near a superstar."

 

Kerryon Johnson RB Auburn

"Another boring RB prospect. He reminds me of post-injury Cadillac Williams. Nothing stands out about his game other than his toughness. He breaks a lot of arm tackles, but he's not a horse in the backfield like you'd hope for, given he doesn't have great speed or agility. His vision is good, but he is allegedly not good in pass protection nor is he going to give you any standout traits. I don't like these RB's that aren't either explosive or powerful. Johnson is neither of those things and is just a slightly more athletic De'Veon Smith."

 

Tremaine Edmunds LB Virginia Tech

"Technical nightmare. I know he's young and I know he made a lot of splash plays, but his consistency is horrible. He disappears for long stretches in games and in the three games I watched of him this year, he was relatively invisible. He struggled mightily at diagnosing runs against I-formation teams when he couldn't just run and chase vs. the spread. Projecting him to become better at reads is a little risky. I keep seeing him in the top 10, which is crazy talk to my eyes. I need to watch more of his highlights, because I think I caught his 3 worst games tbh. But still, I'm not impressed."

 

Ronald Jones RB USC

"Love his burst, but I never thought he was Jamaal Charles fast, as some were making him out to be years ago. I like that he runs between the tackles pretty hard, but he never breaks tackles. He's just so damn skinny and weak that it hurts my head. I see him mocked in the late 1st pretty frequently, which seems insanely rich for me. I think he's more like a late 2nd or early 3rd. Again, he's fast, but doesn't have great vision and has literally no power. Won't get you any extra yards, although he will at least try and scrap for them. Fumbles are also an issue."

 

 

Go ahead, tell me why I'm crazy. Give me some good analysis or point me to some game tapes that refute my claims and I'd be happy to revise some of these names.

Admittedly, this is the least amount of prospect research I've done in any of the recent drafts, but I've done enough on the names I've thrown out there to feel pretty good about my stances.

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13 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

Rashaad Penny RB San Diego State

"Almost the opposite of Kelly. He's big and fast, but he doesn't move laterally at all. Can't start and stop and takes forever to build up that impressive long speed. Doesn't use his size to his advantage and is more of a pure homerun hitter instead of a mean SOB. Vision is pretty bad, but it's not like he can cutback anyways. He's not nearly as big, but he reminds me a little of Beanie Wells--a soft but powerfully built runner. He is a great pass catcher and kick returner though, which will add to his value."

Here's why I personally like Penny:

*Production: The kid was one of/if not the most productive RB in the nation in a pro style offense. He has elite vision and patience, and rarely, if ever, slows his feet, which are two of the more underrated and uncharted traits that any good/great RB has. He's also a shorter and controlled strider and pretty elusive.

*He also has solid measurables, at 5'11, 220, with a 4.46 40 and other solid to good numbers that may not be otherworldly, but they're very good. He "checked boxes" at the combine.

*VERY strong lower half with good hip movement

*I think that he's a good slasher as a runner, kind of going with vision above.

As long as he's not in a ZBS, I like him. He's got some work to do with his upright running style and lack of backside cutback lanes, but he will make guys miss and run hard/push the pile.

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8 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Here's why I personally like Penny:

*Production: The kid was one of/if not the most productive RB in the nation in a pro style offense. He has elite vision and patience, and rarely, if ever, slows his feet, which are two of the more underrated and uncharted traits that any good/great RB has. He's also a shorter and controlled strider and pretty elusive.

*He also has solid measurables, at 5'11, 220, with a 4.46 40 and other solid to good numbers that may not be otherworldly, but they're very good. He "checked boxes" at the combine.

*VERY strong lower half with good hip movement

*I think that he's a good slasher as a runner, kind of going with vision above.

As long as he's not in a ZBS, I like him. He's got some work to do with his upright running style and lack of backside cutback lanes, but he will make guys miss and run hard/push the pile.

@BleedTheClock I swear I'm not following you around today. We're both just active. As far as being a 'soft' runner. He had the highest YPC of any RB in the country when contacted at or behind the LOS. Here's a quick clip of him taking a hard shot, bouncing off and doing a good job of falling forward into the endzone.

WhichElementaryLeech-max-1mb.gif

Here's one of him dragging a defender. Yes, a RB shouldn't get taken down by his shirt, but a soft RB would. And he barely even slows down, like the man on his shirt didn't exist.

88d5db9d75e6dbf02bf9945f4b725b84

 

And I disagree about his vision. I don't think you get to be as good a return man as he is without having a knack for seeing creases. 

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hmmm I guess for a big guy, I was expecting to see Penny just crushing people. He's got a little bit of that Beanie Wells to him. A big back that wants to just hit homeruns. I don't see him doing a lot of dirty work between the tackles. He's a one-speed runner. I like Penny more than most of the RB's in this class, but he's getting early 2nd round buzz. I don't think he's good enough to go that high. RB's that aren't special shouldn't go very high at all IMO. I don't view him as special and because of that, I'd just wait until the 4th-6th round range to grab a RB rather than spend a high 2nd rounder on Penny. I've seen him compared to Terrell Davis and Adrian Peterson in the last few months. This is crazy talk to me...not to mention the fact that those comparisons are like polar opposites of one another. I want him to be more consistently angry as a runner. Like Ballage, he's selectively violent as a runner.

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10 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

I've seen him compared to Terrell Davis and Adrian Peterson in the last few months

I love Penny, but comparing anyone to HOF'ers is just dumb most times unless he looks like a transcendent talent.

But to me, he's a far more pure runner than Ballage. With Ballage's skill set he had no reason to not put up huge numbers. I think Ballage is best served running routes all day tbh. 

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Uchenna Nwosu-Solid depth. Kyle Van Noy type role player in terms of snaps played and role fratured within a defense. Solid, but unspectacular.

Taven Bryan-Athlete high effort guy with high likelihood of busting.

Luke Falk-Potential backup quarterback.

John KellySon't particularly think much about this one. Probably a wash out after a season or two.

Rashaad Penny-First round pick, arguably best runner in the draft. Powerful, good breakaway speed and quickness, can return and is all around a good player. Should be a starter for a team. Mayrice Jones Drew type role player is ideal for him I think.

DJ Moore-Yards after catch guy with athletic ability to maybe carve out a feature role on an offense. Not the highest of ceilings for a wide receiever prospect but could be a solid contributor. First round is rich but it's likely where a team will take him it seems.

Mike McGlinchey-Best tackle prospect in terms of pro readiness. Athletic, big, technically sound just needs to gain more experience and fix some minor flaws people pick at on his game reciews. Should make it as a starter for many seasons if I had to guess.

Bradley Chubb-Solid across the biard, will hold his own, make an impact and be reliable as a starter. Not a supreme pass rush threat or dominant in any single area but very solid.  Worth it to a team that needs to take their defense over the top.

Kerryon Johnson-Inteiguin atteibutes but nothing convincing. Should backup in the league for a few seasons.

Trumaine Edmunds-Not an instinctual player that will fit right into the NFL right away, but has physical ability that can be used to the teams advantage if put into specific matchups. Will take time to develop and needs to go to the right place.

Ronald Jones-Could be a Kevin Faulk third down type back and has the potential to be a starter but something seems to be off. Not sure if he can handle the physicality of the NfL for too long. Should be a backup.

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1 hour ago, BleedTheClock said:

Mike McGlinchey OT Notre Dame

"Gets roasted by speed rushers. He's pretty darn skinny and I have a feeling he'll get bullied by 5-Techniques in 3-4 defenses. He's got very good technique in his run blocking and even in his pass blocking, but I don't think his feet or his power will allow him to become a dominant OT. I've seen him mocked in the top 15. I wouldn't take him in the 1st round and am even skeptical of taking him in the 2nd. He's an average RT prospect to me."

Since the Bengals pick seems to be down to McGlinchey or Daniels, I've been doing some more digging into McGlinchey.  I read something today that did change my mind on him: https://www.cincyjungle.com/2018/4/16/17238390/2018-nfl-draft-prospect-vs-prospect-mike-mcglinchey-vs-connor-williams

Specifically with McGlinchey, it was more common to see him execute quick sets rather than vertical sets in pass protection, a vertical set being the standard vertical kickslide. Notre Dame had McGlinchey aligned in a straight line with the center performing quick sets in pass protection like he was a guard, without an inline tight end next to him.

This put him at a disadvantage against edges who would use speed to run the arc around him. When he was in a traditional stance a yard and a half behind the center’s midsection, he could mirror speed fine.

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Completely agreed on Edmunds.  Does anyone really see a special player when they watch him?  With some prospects I'm left wondering what tape other people have access to that I don't.  I guess others just place physical traits higher than I do.  Some Colts fans want him at 6, personally he's the one guy I desperately do not want.  I'd probably talk myself into it eventually but no thanks.

 

I do think you are selling Chubb a bit short.  Yeah his mentality and relentlessness are his defining characteristics, but that combined with his technique and power can go a long way.  He has shown the ability to take over games defensively despite not having elite pass rush traits.  He's just one of those guys it is almost impossible to imagine not being a good *** player in the NFL.  I see him having a Ryan Kerrigan level of impact.  I think he's a top 10 player in most drafts.

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Have you seen John Kelly's stiff arm? That should give him a few points, no?

Pros are that he has little wear and tear and can contribute in all facets of the game. Not sure where he is being projected but I think he would be good value in the 5th round or so.

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2 hours ago, TheVillain112 said:

Since the Bengals pick seems to be down to McGlinchey or Daniels, I've been doing some more digging into McGlinchey.  I read something today that did change my mind on him: https://www.cincyjungle.com/2018/4/16/17238390/2018-nfl-draft-prospect-vs-prospect-mike-mcglinchey-vs-connor-williams

Specifically with McGlinchey, it was more common to see him execute quick sets rather than vertical sets in pass protection, a vertical set being the standard vertical kickslide. Notre Dame had McGlinchey aligned in a straight line with the center performing quick sets in pass protection like he was a guard, without an inline tight end next to him.

This put him at a disadvantage against edges who would use speed to run the arc around him. When he was in a traditional stance a yard and a half behind the center’s midsection, he could mirror speed fine.

Yeah McGlinch is one of the best tackle prospects in a while to me. So good he makes people look at Quenton Nelson like he is the next greatest guard ever. He is fine don’t get me wrong, but between the two I’m picking McGlinchey who I think goes top ten or just outside it around 11.

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3 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

Made this thread last year and had some of my viewpoints turned around. I'd love for that to happen again this year. Guys are not listed in any particular order btw...

 

Uchenna Nwosu DE/LB USC

"Solid burst off the line, but stuck between a LB'er and a DE. I think his best fit is as a 4-3 SLB, and even then, I don't see starter. He's been getting a lot of pub lately as a possible surprise 1st round pick. I don't think he goes in the first 3 rounds. That might be criminally low to most, but I just don't see it with this kid."

 

Taven Bryan DT Florida

"Just a bulldog with zero technique or hand usage. He's going to get obliterated on down blocks and trap blocks in the NFL. Very disruptive, but doesn't play sound gap football. He's all over the place from a fundamental standpoint. He's pretty much a lock for the 1st round according to most, but I wouldn't draft him until maybe the 3rd round."

 

Luke Falk QB Washington State

"Falk was benched this season. He is usually pretty accurate, but that fell off this year. Doesn't have a strong arm, isn't a great athlete, isn't very big. Just overall, very limited. I like his underneath accuracy, but he's just not built for the NFL. Played in an extremely QB-friendly scheme and had trouble producing despite this. Smart and accurate, but not toolsy enough for my liking."

 

John Kelly RB Tennessee

"Boring RB prospect. He's got great balance, but he isn't overly violent or fast. I think you have to be one or the other and Kelly isn't. He's got great agility and quicks, but without combining this with some sort of power, I don't see how he can be ranked so high."

 

Rashaad Penny RB San Diego State

"Almost the opposite of Kelly. He's big and fast, but he doesn't move laterally at all. Can't start and stop and takes forever to build up that impressive long speed. Doesn't use his size to his advantage and is more of a pure homerun hitter instead of a mean SOB. Vision is pretty bad, but it's not like he can cutback anyways. He's not nearly as big, but he reminds me a little of Beanie Wells--a soft but powerfully built runner. He is a great pass catcher and kick returner though, which will add to his value."

 

DJ Moore WR Maryland

"I don't see it. His tape is pretty good, but I'm always left perplexed with how he makes these plays. He's not very big and not very fast. Plus he runs a pretty boring route tree for the most part. Where he's amazing is after the catch. But still, I don't know if he's sudden enough to create consistent separation from NFL DB's. This one is a hard to put a finger on, because his tape kind of disspells my worries, but the way he wins is bizarre to me. He's seemingly always well covered barring a few complete breakdowns in the defense, but still makes the catch and gets some YAC as well."

 

Mike McGlinchey OT Notre Dame

"Gets roasted by speed rushers. He's pretty darn skinny and I have a feeling he'll get bullied by 5-Techniques in 3-4 defenses. He's got very good technique in his run blocking and even in his pass blocking, but I don't think his feet or his power will allow him to become a dominant OT. I've seen him mocked in the top 15. I wouldn't take him in the 1st round and am even skeptical of taking him in the 2nd. He's an average RT prospect to me."

 

Bradley Chubb DE NC State

"He's a good player for sure. But I don't have him as being the best DE in the draft, nor do I think he's worthy of a top 10 pick. He wins with effort and hustle, but he doesn't really have an edge dip or a nasty bull rush. He's just tenacious. This will make him a great player against the run, but I don't see big pass rush productivity out of Chubb. If I'm taking a DE in the top 10, he better be able to generate double digit sacks consistently. I don't think that's Chubb. He's got almost 0 chance to bust, but he's nowhere near a superstar."

 

Kerryon Johnson RB Auburn

"Another boring RB prospect. He reminds me of post-injury Cadillac Williams. Nothing stands out about his game other than his toughness. He breaks a lot of arm tackles, but he's not a horse in the backfield like you'd hope for, given he doesn't have great speed or agility. His vision is good, but he is allegedly not good in pass protection nor is he going to give you any standout traits. I don't like these RB's that aren't either explosive or powerful. Johnson is neither of those things and is just a slightly more athletic De'Veon Smith."

 

Tremaine Edmunds LB Virginia Tech

"Technical nightmare. I know he's young and I know he made a lot of splash plays, but his consistency is horrible. He disappears for long stretches in games and in the three games I watched of him this year, he was relatively invisible. He struggled mightily at diagnosing runs against I-formation teams when he couldn't just run and chase vs. the spread. Projecting him to become better at reads is a little risky. I keep seeing him in the top 10, which is crazy talk to my eyes. I need to watch more of his highlights, because I think I caught his 3 worst games tbh. But still, I'm not impressed."

 

Ronald Jones RB USC

"Love his burst, but I never thought he was Jamaal Charles fast, as some were making him out to be years ago. I like that he runs between the tackles pretty hard, but he never breaks tackles. He's just so damn skinny and weak that it hurts my head. I see him mocked in the late 1st pretty frequently, which seems insanely rich for me. I think he's more like a late 2nd or early 3rd. Again, he's fast, but doesn't have great vision and has literally no power. Won't get you any extra yards, although he will at least try and scrap for them. Fumbles are also an issue."

 

 

Go ahead, tell me why I'm crazy. Give me some good analysis or point me to some game tapes that refute my claims and I'd be happy to revise some of these names.

Admittedly, this is the least amount of prospect research I've done in any of the recent drafts, but I've done enough on the names I've thrown out there to feel pretty good about my stances.

Taven - he has a stupid combination of burst + athleticism + strength.  His biggest flaw is gap discipline but that doesn’t seem like an issue that can’t be coached out plus the Florida scheme asked him to get up field as fast as possible.  Furthermore, his issues in the run game are largely due to that lack of discipline + playing high at times but he has the strength to develop into a plus run defender.  The NFL is a passing league and with interior disruption so valuable Taven has the ability to become an elite interior rusher. He’s in my top 20 overall players and DT1.

John Kelly - his balance reminds me of Kareem Hunt from last year.  Contact balance is an immediately transferable trait and Kelly is elite in that regard.  Combine that balance with his pass catching chops and lateral twitch and I’ll be shocked if Kelly isn’t an above average starting NFL RB. My RB4 with a 2nd round grade.

RoJo - I don’t see the lack of power to churn out extra yards that you mentioned.  He’s an excellent combo of violence + explosion + lateral agility. The size is a concern but I didn’t really see it show up on film. My RB3 and a 1st Round grade.

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I actually share all the concerns on Ronald Jones.   Nowhere near JC level, and frankly, comes off as extremely hyped.  

DJ Moore, it's all about short area burst and explosion.  He's got it.  His route tree is pretty limited, but that's on Maryland's woeful O, not on his lack of ability.   

Two more things Chubb has in his favor - balance, and handwork.   His feet are always under him even when he cuts and changes direction, and he's a great handfighter.   I agree he's not an elite pass-rusher on his own - but he's a disruptor.   Again, I think Clowney is the perfect comp (and Clowney's shown he's a great disruptor in pass rush, but more of the 2 in a 1-2 punch to generate pass rush heat).

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2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Again, I think Clowney is the perfect comp

He's closer to David Clowney the WR than he is JaDeveon Clowney the DE. Clowney is a once in a blue moon freak at DE. Bradley Chubb is in every draft class. He's closer to Derrick Morgan/William Hayes to me.

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