Montana on Brady's longevity

[NFLExpert49]

11 minutes ago, Non-Issue said:

And I said 30 was when QBs... typically... started to... break down. Meaning it doesn't happen to everyone, just most. Aaaaand it's the beginning of when they start to break down. Not that theyre broken down by then.

So showing me a list of anomalies (Tarkenton), situationals (Roger Staubach didnt start playing in the NFL until he was 27, Jurgenson was a backup for his last 5 seasons), QBs that actually started breaking down around 30 (like Roman Gabriel and Marino... had you added him) and players that played until they were 34 or 35 really doesnt do much to bolster your argument.

Every coach knew, and every fan knew, that once a QB hit 30, he was on the downside of his career. After 30 they started getting dinged up more and they started to recover more slowly. 



 

And what does "starting to break down" mean, exactly? You may as well say they're starting to break down the moment they're conceived.

Marino was not breaking down at 30. Had one of the best years of his career at 33. Was still very good at 34.

Gabriel didn't start declining until 34.

If 30 is the "3-4 year warning," you don't trade for somebody who has been in the game a few years. You draft somebody and let him learn behind the 30 year old. 

30 is only the wall for RBs and CBs. Every other position, 30 is still prime age. And QB, aside from kicker, would be the one where you would expect them to be closest to peak effectiveness (or even more effective than before) the furthest into their 30s. The reason for this is the performance is so much more about the mental and technical aspects. 

 

48 minutes ago, Non-Issue said:

Sorry. I didnt look for any QBs outside of 7 rounds. Clearly Walsh was doing his best to replace Montana with those picks. Who, put together, amount to a total of zero NFL snaps in their entire combined careers.

If your coach doesnt think you are great, why doesnt he try to replace you until you are 30 years old and coming off a mangled back and a season ending concussion? Why does he spend his entire time coaching that team coaching that ONE QB without making any attempt to replace him until he is broken?

Because he was good enough. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. The Ravens waited a long time before starting to think about replacing Flacco, too. Doesn't mean anyone there thinks he's a historic great. I doubt the NY Giants think Eli Manning is a historic great, but they have won 2 Super Bowls with him and have stayed with him because of that. But when **** started to hit the fan with their play last year, they didn't give them the benefit of a doubt the way the Packers constantly did with Favre, or the Dolphins did with Marino. The Ravens drafted Lamar Jackson and the Giants benched Manning last year. 

 

[Non-Issue]

8 hours ago, NFLExpert49 said:

And what does "starting to break down" mean, exactly? You may as well say they're starting to break down the moment they're conceived.

Marino was not breaking down at 30. Had one of the best years of his career at 33. Was still very good at 34.

Gabriel didn't start declining until 34.

If 30 is the "3-4 year warning," you don't trade for somebody who has been in the game a few years. You draft somebody and let him learn behind the 30 year old. 

30 is only the wall for RBs and CBs. Every other position, 30 is still prime age. And QB, aside from kicker, would be the one where you would expect them to be closest to peak effectiveness (or even more effective than before) the furthest into their 30s. The reason for this is the performance is so much more about the mental and technical aspects. 

You keep bringing up these strawman arguments. 

Again, I never said it was an absolute. I said it was the norm. Not that they had a physiological alarm clock set for 30. But that 30 was the age that typically signified the downward slope of a players. When QBs start to get more dinged up and injured. And when their play starts to decline. Again... typically. And again... started to. I never suggested for a second that 30 was a "wall." Or that it was the "3-4 year warning." 

You might "expect" QBs to come closest to peak effectiveness further into their 30's. But the data simply doesnt bear that out. QBs typically peak around 25 to 26. The rare ones peak later. Or sustain their peak longer. But there is nothing to support that a QBs typical prime, back in Montana's day in particular, is (or was) 30. Much less "the further into the 30's" a QB gets. If that is what you are trying to say by "furthest into their 30's."

It's really simple. You're trying to muddy the waters with nonsense. I said that Walsh brought in Young because Montana was 30 (the age that QBs started to typically break down) and was coming off of major back surgery and a severe concussion. In other words, Walsh saw his QB was getting older, breaking down, and went after a successor. No coach, at that time, had any reason to assume that a QB past 30 was going to bounce back from an injury.

It's simple biology and simple history. As players get older, they are more injury prone and take longer to heal. And sports medicine, surgical approaches, and rehab then were not what they are now. Nor were the rules protecting QBs.

I didn't say Marino was breaking down at 30. I said he started to break down around 30. At 32 the guy tore his achilles tendon and wasn't even touched. 
Gabriel started missing more and more snaps per game in 1971 because he was constantly dinged up. He was CPOY at 34. And he wasn't coming back from a vacation in the Bahamas.

 

Quote

Because he was good enough. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. The Ravens waited a long time before starting to think about replacing Flacco, too. Doesn't mean anyone there thinks he's a historic great. I doubt the NY Giants think Eli Manning is a historic great, but they have won 2 Super Bowls with him and have stayed with him because of that. But when **** started to hit the fan with their play last year, they didn't give them the benefit of a doubt the way the Packers constantly did with Favre, or the Dolphins did with Marino. The Ravens drafted Lamar Jackson and the Giants benched Manning last year. 

Montana was "good enough"? Like a Flacco or an Eli Manning? That is your answer??? 

Terrible. Just... terrible. 

[NFLExpert49]

9 hours ago, Non-Issue said:

You keep bringing up these strawman arguments. 

Again, I never said it was an absolute. I said it was the norm. Not that they had a physiological alarm clock set for 30. But that 30 was the age that typically signified the downward slope of a players. When QBs start to get more dinged up and injured. And when their play starts to decline. Again... typically. And again... started to. I never suggested for a second that 30 was a "wall." Or that it was the "3-4 year warning." 

You might "expect" QBs to come closest to peak effectiveness further into their 30's. But the data simply doesnt bear that out. QBs typically peak around 25 to 26. The rare ones peak later. Or sustain their peak longer. But there is nothing to support that a QBs typical prime, back in Montana's day in particular, is (or was) 30. Much less "the further into the 30's" a QB gets. If that is what you are trying to say by "furthest into their 30's."

It's really simple. You're trying to muddy the waters with nonsense. I said that Walsh brought in Young because Montana was 30 (the age that QBs started to typically break down) and was coming off of major back surgery and a severe concussion. In other words, Walsh saw his QB was getting older, breaking down, and went after a successor. No coach, at that time, had any reason to assume that a QB past 30 was going to bounce back from an injury.

It's simple biology and simple history. As players get older, they are more injury prone and take longer to heal. And sports medicine, surgical approaches, and rehab then were not what they are now. Nor were the rules protecting QBs.

I didn't say Marino was breaking down at 30. I said he started to break down around 30. At 32 the guy tore his achilles tendon and wasn't even touched. 
Gabriel started missing more and more snaps per game in 1971 because he was constantly dinged up. He was CPOY at 34. And he wasn't coming back from a vacation in the Bahamas.

 

Montana was "good enough"? Like a Flacco or an Eli Manning? That is your answer??? 

Terrible. Just... terrible. 

No, I said it is the 3-4 year warning based on the actual data.

Where on earth did you get the data that QBs typically peak around 25-26? That's just laughably false. Like, just take a look at basically any QB's numbers and you'll see that it just isn't true. 

What I am trying to say is that QB is the position where a player is expected to have the most longevity (aside from kicker). I would think just about every football fan would know this.

The argument that it was solely about Walsh's concern over Montana's health breaks down when you see how he handled the 87-88 Vikings playoff game and subsequent 1988 season. And if Young had taken over the job at that point, and the 49ers had dealt Montana...you can only imagine how that would have completely changed his legacy. He likely wouldn't have even made the Hall of Fame.

A player getting injured once or twice doesn't mean he's "starting to break down." Drew Brees tore his labrum at age 26. Roethlisberger was prone to injury from the start. McNabb broke his ankle at 26, etc.

The fact is, QBs - whether they suffered injuries or not - consistently are at peak level well into their 30s. You can see this by looking at their actual statistics.

Whether you're talking Brady, Manning, and Brees, or Rich Gannon and Brad Johnson, the numbers speak for themselves.

Yes, to Walsh, Montana was "good enough." He got the job done at a fairly high level. But Walsh didn't see him as, "I really hit the jackpot here." And that's what you would expect of a head coach if he had an "arguably greatest of all-time" on his roster.

The Rams certainly think the hit the jackpot on Aaron Donald, whether he's better than the likes of Randy White or not. The Steelers certainly think Antonio Brown is pretty special, and the Giants think of the same of Odell Beckham Jr, even though he got hurt last year. And the Packers think Aaron Rodgers is the franchise, even though he got hurt last year. 

The Ravens won a Super Bowl with Flacco, but they obviously don't have the same view of him.