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kurgan

DeCastro-type situation

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Ok, so let's play fantasy island for a second.

We are sitting at #28 on draft day and we sit and someone tumbles to #28.  Someone that was not supposed to fall, but does.  Someone that we have to really think about taking, even if it is NOT a position of need.  For this scenario, I am not talking about a QB or RB, since that would cause too much discussion about stuff we already talked about on here.  Also, obviously if one of the top 4 LB's fell we would take them as well, and even like Denzel Ward would be a no-brainer.  Here are the 3 top-20 guys that have been pretty much been concensus top guys that I would like to hear if you all would want to take if they were there at 28.

For this scenario, imagine all the LBs are gone and lets say Reid to Carolina.  So, you have some edges and the late round corners, and like Bates.  No trade back scenarios are in play.

  1. DT Vita Vea, Washington
  2. OL Isaiah Wynn, Georgia
  3. OT Mike McGlinchy, Notre Dame

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There is zero need to draft a OG or OT.  I think Wynn could easily be there at 28 but the OG class is very deep and there is no need to get one in the 1st.

If Vea fell to them I think they would take him.

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Here's my thing: OL is not enough of a need to make that happen first off.

 

And why I'm against drafting Vita Vea:  If he's doing his job, then he's a two down player.  If he's a 3 down player that means he's not doing his primary job.  Because if we're going to any form of nickle package, it's most likely (based on past play calling) that the NT (in this case Vea) is the one coming off the field as opposed to anyone else.  We just know that's the way they operate.  So why invest a 1st round pick on a player who ideally would be a 2 down player?  And if he's in there on pass downs as part of a 2 man front (first off how often have we seen this team leave a NT in as one of the 2 down linemen); then who are you taking off the field?  Hayward? I wouldn't he's our best interior rusher.  Tuitt?  So you sacrifice pass rush to add a stop to a possible rush?  

Now granted, this would allow us to move Hargrave to what I think is a more natural DE position in the 3-4, but I still feel the negatives outweigh the positives.  Especially when you can get Settle in the 2nd day; Poona Ford, BJ Hill, or any number of other guys in the 3rd day who are just run stuffers.  

If these three guys fell, IMO that would mean we saw a big run on QB's and DB's. So to me I think any one of the ILB's or OLB/DE's would still be on the board for us to take.

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Which goes to the question of where the runs might be.  I think the Steelers will be lucky if 2 WR and 2 RB come off the board before they pick.  Wr are weak in the top of this draft and RBs are devalued and deep.  I think the Steelers get lucky if 2+ OG come off the board in the 1st.  Nelson is a given.  Either Wynn or Hernandez could come off I just do not think both will come off before 28. For OT I am not sure.  I do not see any that really stand out.  Perhaps 1 and if they are lucky 2.   It just means that a lot of defensive players are going to come off the board.

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2 minutes ago, jebrick said:

Which goes to the question of where the runs might be.  I think the Steelers will be lucky if 2 WR and 2 RB come off the board before they pick.  Wr are weak in the top of this draft and RBs are devalued and deep.  I think the Steelers get lucky if 2+ OG come off the board in the 1st.  Nelson is a given.  Either Wynn or Hernandez could come off I just do not think both will come off before 28. For OT I am not sure.  I do not see any that really stand out.  Perhaps 1 and if they are lucky 2.   It just means that a lot of defensive players are going to come off the board.

There's actually a fair number of teams in front of us that need OT.  Browns, Bills, Patriots, possibly Panthers.

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11 minutes ago, warfelg said:

There's actually a fair number of teams in front of us that need OT.  Browns, Bills, Patriots, possibly Panthers.

But there might not be an OT worth that pick for those teams. 

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I forgot about the WR.  Is there one that you all would take at #28??  If NONE were taken, would we take Ridley, Moore or Sutton??  Again, assume all of the Normal picks are taken.  All the ILB and Reid/Harrison.

 

As far as OT class, this one seems hella week.  McGlinchy is the #1 OT, right??  Maybe Konnor Williams.... are they locks for Rd. 1??

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29 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said:

But there might not be an OT worth that pick for those teams. 

McGlichney, Kolton Miller, and there's one other that name eludes me that can be a 1st round pick.

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27 minutes ago, warfelg said:

McGlichney, Kolton Miller, and there's one other that name eludes me that can be a 1st round pick.

Connor from Texas.  I think McGlichney either Connor or Miller will go in the 1st round.  But there is no standout OT and very few clear LT prospects.

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14 minutes ago, jebrick said:

Connor from Texas.  I think McGlichney either Connor or Miller will go in the 1st round.  But there is no standout OT and very few clear LT prospects.

Here's my thing: I think some on here (not saying you) are assuming that guys we like won't be available because they think that teams will take them rather than those needs.

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2 hours ago, warfelg said:

Here's my thing: OL is not enough of a need to make that happen first off.

 

And why I'm against drafting Vita Vea:  If he's doing his job, then he's a two down player.  If he's a 3 down player that means he's not doing his primary job.  Because if we're going to any form of nickle package, it's most likely (based on past play calling) that the NT (in this case Vea) is the one coming off the field as opposed to anyone else. 

You know I have been saying NG, NG, NG!!!!!   Here is a situation where he still does his job.  Second down and anywhere between 12 and 8 to go.  Do we stay base or do we go into some form of Nickel?  Why can't he be a down lineman in the Nickel when teams tend to run on us in that scenario at times as well? Call me stubborn, hard headed, I just don't get it whatever, but in some cases, I would love to see Vea and Hargraves inside with Tuitt and Cam outside and Watt and Bud or if we get a ILB like Evans, Vander Esch, Leonard, or whomever we draft.

We just know that's the way they operate.  So why invest a 1st round pick on a player who ideally would be a 2 down player?  And if he's in there on pass downs as part of a 2 man front (first off how often have we seen this team leave a NT in as one of the 2 down linemen); then who are you taking off the field?  Hayward? I wouldn't he's our best interior rusher.  Tuitt?  So you sacrifice pass rush to add a stop to a possible rush?  

I don't think every set of players have to be 100% of the time. Are schemes are too predictable, which is why our opponents have success. Solution: Mix up your players and schemes.  We could go Big Nickel  with four DL's. I don't think we sacrifice that much pass rush. I don't see where Tuitt and Heyward are any worse pass rushers than anyone else on our roster. We are not talking about taking Vonn Miller or Vick Beasley off the field. We have no elite pass rusher on this roster and in fact, in my humble opinion, our best pass rusher is Cam. Keep him in the scheme. Hargraves talent is penetrating inside. Give him a shot to do just that.

Now granted, this would allow us to move Hargrave to what I think is a more natural DE position in the 3-4, but I still feel the negatives outweigh the positives.  Especially when you can get Settle in the 2nd day; Poona Ford, BJ Hill, or any number of other guys in the 3rd day who are just run stuffers.  

I agree that there is a lot of depth at DT. However, based on this scenario, the BPA is Vita Vea.  He is a top ten talent. Period!  Not a sexy pick, but  a smart one and one that helps our run defense day one!

If these three guys fell, IMO that would mean we saw a big run on QB's and DB's. So to me I think any one of the ILB's or OLB/DE's would still be on the board for us to take.

I am not trying to out think the scenario.  We are all pretty logical, but almost every year someone pulls picking a second third round talent in the first draft. He did said,  (what if, fantasy, Madden-esque, or make believe).  I sincerely believe that a NG is not an extinct dinosaur in our defense.  Plus I love getting your feedback on this Warfelg.  You give me some good stuff to think about.

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I am just trying to guess based on team needs and talent of the draft.  It is based on past drafts and is imperfect because the draft will surprise us several times.

In the last 10 years there is an average of 6 OL taken in the 1st round.  OT is 4.5.  OG 1 OC 0.5. ( I am rounding up) So we can assume that about 6 will go in this draft.  In the last 10 years the most OG taken in the 1st round is 2.  The least is 0.  The most OT is 8 and the least is 3.

so Ot are valued much higher than OG or OC.  In this draft there is no super talent for OT.  There are 3 pretty good OT.  There is much better OG but we can see they are almost always undervalued in the 1st round.  Based on that I would project 5.5 Oline go in the 1st round.

Add to this we can guess that 5 Qbs will probably be taken in the 1st.  There are an average of 2 RBs taken in the 1st round in the last 10 drafts.  2008 was the high point with 5 with several years of zero.

We have already said this is a weak WR class.  There are no top end talent that a team could not find equal value in rounds 2-3.  That being said the 10 year average for WR is 3.6 with the high of 6 and the low of zero.  I personally do not think 3 WR will go and it will more than likely be 2.  TEs are less than 1 average. 

You can make you own judgement if you think a TE will be taken in the 1st ( could be).  so 15 or 16 offensive players taken but that is the whole draft.  We only care about the 27 picks.

Pass rushers and CBs are over valued in the 1st round.  I can see 5 for sure ( chubb, Davenport, Payne, Hurst and Bryan) plus Landry, Edmund( who I will count as an EDGE player). .  I can see at least CB 3 off before the Steelers (Ward, Alexander, Fitzpatrick) .  Maybe Josh Jackson???  Safeties I can only see Derwin James coming off before the Steelers pick.  THat is 9-10 plus the 12-14 O players so we have 4-7 players to fill in.

I have left the LBs and Vea off as they did not fit into the passrusher/CB bucket.

Edited by jebrick

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3 hours ago, kurgan said:

I forgot about the WR.  Is there one that you all would take at #28??  If NONE were taken, would we take Ridley, Moore or Sutton??  Again, assume all of the Normal picks are taken.  All the ILB and Reid/Harrison.

 

As far as OT class, this one seems hella week.  McGlinchy is the #1 OT, right??  Maybe Konnor Williams.... are they locks for Rd. 1??

If we take a WR at 28, Colbert and/or Tomlin should be fired on the spot.

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@Steeler Hitman and @warfelg I see both sides.  Why spend a first rounder on a two down player??  But, isn't a safety at this point a role player??  I would think that there is no every down player that we can get at #28 knowing our defense.

@jebrick; interesting analysis.  I think that number will be off since OTs and WRs are so down this year.  I mean, the earliest I have seen a WR go is #16 to Baltimore.  That is late compared to other years.  Not to mention OTs... I can see maybe McGlinchy and Williams going before #28, but that is not for certain.

 

Hitman, just for Sh%ts and giggles, what would a mock for you look like if we took Vea first??  Gotta be secondary and then WR in the next two, right??  Just curious....

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20 hours ago, kurgan said:

@Steeler Hitman and @warfelg I see both sides.  Why spend a first rounder on a two down player??  But, isn't a safety at this point a role player??  I would think that there is no every down player that we can get at #28 knowing our defense.

@jebrick; interesting analysis.  I think that number will be off since OTs and WRs are so down this year.  I mean, the earliest I have seen a WR go is #16 to Baltimore.  That is late compared to other years.  Not to mention OTs... I can see maybe McGlinchy and Williams going before #28, but that is not for certain.

 

Hitman, just for Sh%ts and giggles, what would a mock for you look like if we took Vea first??  Gotta be secondary and then WR in the next two, right??  Just curious....

I am a strong advocate of the BPA or BPABON (best player available based on need) philosophies.  If I was the man and pulled the trigger on a falling Vita Vea in round one. The rest of my draft goes like this:

Round Two: in this scenario choosing between Safeties: Justine Reid is gone. Jesse Bates, Kyzir White, and Terrell Edmunds and LBers - Uchenna Nwosu, Fred Warner, Andre' Smith and Jerome Baker ( I go with Terrell Edmunds over Bates)

Round Three: I get my ILB with Darius Leonard -- First year special teams and some snaps dropping in coverage. Has upside.

Round Five A : WR Justin Watson - - sticking with my latest mock

Round Five B: Joe Ostman OLB/Edge

Seven A: Brian Allen C

Seven B: Kameron Kelly SS/FS

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