Character vs Value

[Scout]

I've been giving this quite a bit of thought, and interested in the forums thoughts. Where do value and character meet? My two biggest red flags last year were Foster and McDowell. They clearly are busts. However, guys like Mathieu (3rd), and Justin Houston (4th) provided surplus value. Where is the sweet spot? 

[Forge]

43 minutes ago, Scout said:

I've been giving this quite a bit of thought, and interested in the forums thoughts. Where do value and character meet? My two biggest red flags last year were Foster and McDowell. They clearly are busts. However, guys like Mathieu (3rd), and Justin Houston (4th) provided surplus value. Where is the sweet spot? 

How is the bolded accurate?  Foster is still on the 49ers, and there is no intention to release him unless something really goes south in his case. There is a long way to go before he could be considered a bust. As of this moment, all we know is that he'll likely be suspended for 6 games. If that changes, then obviously it'll be re-evaluated, but right now he's likely facing the same suspension Zeke got, and I'm sure nobody is considering the Dallas running back a bust. Foster was a stud on the field last year. He's headed down a bad path, that is for sure, and the way the case goes will dictate a lot, but way too soon to declare him a bust since we don't know how it will play out. If he pleads guilty to some misdemeanor charges, doesn't get jail time, it's absolutely possible the worst he gets is the 6 games. 

And if McDowell busts based on his career so far, it has nothing to do with character and everything to do with a potentially life threatening non football injury. Correlating the two is completely disingenuous. 

[pigsooie5]

Tough to gauge because NFL teams have much more inside knowledge on these guys than the media is made aware of. Obviously it’s case by case but guys like McDowell/Gregory/Nkemdiche all had major work ethic issues in addition to offfield/legal issues. If becoming a multi-millionaire isn’t insentive enough to bust your butt, what is gunna happen when they do get that contract? 

Foster and Mathieu were merely off field stuff, on the field and in practice they were seen as extremely hard workers. IMO that’s the difference.

[Forge]

To answer OP, it's going to vary from player to player. There are simply too many variables. Talent base plays a role. The overall risk layering with regards to what kind of character issues, work ethic, attitude, etc. Isolated or recurring? How significant were the character issues? Etc, etc. 

[Scout]

Foster is a great player, it's more about the off the field where the owner may end up cutting him. 

McDowell made a very immature choice to ride an ATV when he had millions at stake. 

[TheVillain112]

These are the questions that I would want answered when weighing this decision:

1.) Does the prospect have a repeating problem?  He's an alcoholic (Manziel), likes drugs too much (Josh Gordan, Blackmon, 5,000 other guys)?  Or is his issue a one-time incident (Joe Mixon)?
2.) Is this prospect a truly terrible person or just a knucklehead that if you get them out of a bad situation they'll be fine.  Dez/Matheiu might be good examples of the latter.
3.) Is this player passionate about football?  Puts in the time, understands the playbook, etc...  If they are just getting by on athleticism then combine that with red flags, and I would shy away from them.
4.) How is this person as a teammate?

If a prospect can pass all of those questions, then I evaluate the risk/reward to figure out what round to draft them...

[MWil23]

8 minutes ago, Forge said:

To answer OP, it's going to vary from player to player. There are simply too many variables. Talent base plays a role. The overall risk layering with regards to what kind of character issues, work ethic, attitude, etc. Isolated or recurring? How significant were the character issues? Etc, etc. 

Yeah, this. There's a great example from ESPN's old show "Playmakers". There is a decent OL who is late to walkthroughs because he was partying. He's suspended without pay for a game. Meanwhile, their All Pro rookie RB was also late, partying harder, and then played/had a good game.

 

[Scout]

8 minutes ago, Forge said:

To answer OP, it's going to vary from player to player. There are simply too many variables. Talent base plays a role. The overall risk layering with regards to what kind of character issues, work ethic, attitude, etc. Isolated or recurring? How significant were the character issues? Etc, etc. 

Let's start with pure film grade. If a guy has high first round film but the character of Foster, where should he go?

 

If the guy has 2nd round film but terrible off field character (Antonio Callaway) where should he go?

 

From my understanding, both programs thought they both had football character, just didn't trust them when they left the building.

[Da_Ducktator]

My basic philosophy is if there is a pattern of poor or immature behavior, but no arrests or perhaps a one-time, isolated incident arrest, I wouldn't touch them until the 2nd round at the earliest. Baker fits that mold for me this year, Percy Harvin would be an example of a guy in the past who never had anything hard against him, but constantly suffered from injuries and there was talk back when he was in college he was on weed and then he was popped for a positive drug test at the Combine.

If they have hard background of issues, like Byron Pringle does this year, 4th round at the absolute highest. Pringle I have with a 4th round grade because that stuff happened a long time ago and he seems to be over, but there is A LOT from his teenage years that's simply too much to ignore. The value would need to clearly be there for me to take a chance on him and I don't think that starts until after the top 100.

Antonio Callaway certainly falls somewhere between the two. I think Callaway, talent-wise, would probably be a back-end 1st rounder if it wasn't for sitting out a year and the off-field concerns. On the field, it's hard to knock him for much other than average size and drops. We'll see if he has truly changed. He said this at the Combine:

Quote

It’s bigger than me. It ain’t about me. I got a little girl. I just had her three weeks ago. I’ve got four little sisters. A single mom. I got to make it happen. I can’t be out here making mistakes and throwing myself in bad situations.

 

[Scout]

6 minutes ago, Scout said:

Foster is a great player, it's more about the off the field where the owner may end up cutting him. 

McDowell made a very immature choice to ride an ATV when he had millions at stake. 

McDowell was also arrested and called a female police officer a ***** multiple times 

[MSURacerDT55]

In terms of the topic, there is an extremely fine line between guys with character issues and value, it pretty much depends on how comfortable you are with the issues if you like them. 

Worked out: Dan Marino,Randy Moss, Warren Sapp,Cam Newton,Dez Bryant,Aqib Talib,Tyreek Hill, Josh Gordon, Frank Clark, Marcus Peters, Jameis Winston, Pacman Jones, Ahmad Bradshaw

 

Didn't work out: Greg Hardy,Seantreal Henderson, Shawn Oakman, Randy Gregory,Maurice Clarett, Rolando McClain, Justin Blackmon, Lawrence Phillips, Matt Elam, Dimitrius Underwood, Alonzo Spellman, Marcus Vick, Cecil Collins, William Green,Winston Justice, Todd Marinovich

[Scout]

@CalhounLambeau you're the goat of character, any thoughts? 

[Uncle Buck]

Obviously, you want good players, but character is a big part of the package, IMO.  A good example of this is when the Vikings took Trae Waynes over Marcus Peters in the draft.  I liked the pick at the time (and still do) because I felt that Peters was such a knucklehead that he probably wouldn't end up playing very long for whoever did draft him.

It took Waynes longer to adjust to the NFL game, but he may end up giving us more than Peters gave to the Chiefs because they already traded Peters.  It will be interesting to see how long Waynes plays for the Vikings.  If he is not a cap casualty, I could see him having a very solid long-term career for us.  If he does, I think we made the right pick.  Character is worth a lot. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

8 hours ago, Forge said:

To answer OP, it's going to vary from player to player. There are simply too many variables. Talent base plays a role. The overall risk layering with regards to what kind of character issues, work ethic, attitude, etc. Isolated or recurring? How significant were the character issues? Etc, etc. 

Agreed 100%. Not all incidents are the same and the post-combine interviews are huge with that as well. Some things are a case of wrong place at the wrong time and others are just awful. Like someone else said, weighing the cost/benefit is a big factor. 

[CalhounLambeau]

7 hours ago, Scout said:

@CalhounLambeau you're the goat of character, any thoughts? 

Not really.