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Karnage84

7 Rounds in 7 Days

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The draft is a week away. This will likely be my last mock unless something significant comes out that is intriguing.

FREE AGENCY

I think the Lions are done for the time being adding any free agents of prominence. There will be some camp bodies or unknown guys that might be added/subtracted in the meantime. Don't expect to see Dez Bryant, Hankins or anyone else.

TRADES

Lions trade #20, 2019 4th to Patriots for #23 and 2018 3rd

There are rumours surrounding Tom Brady and the Patriots finding their future QB. They have been linked to Lamar Jackson. The Patriots move up to ensure they get their guy while the Lions add another upper level pick in the process.

Lions acquire an additional lower level 5th round pick in exchange for Ameer Abdullah or Jake Rudock

There are some that hold out hope Abdullah comes around and becomes a viable RB for the Lions. Assuming the Lions add another RB in the draft, it is difficult to see exactly what kind of role he might play. We add an extra pick while Abdullah gets a change of scenery. The Lions drafted Rudock in the 6th round. They just signed Matt Cassell as a veteran back up QB to Matthew Stafford. It is possible they look to move Rudock and get a bump in their investment. He hasn't shown a ton to warrant a 2nd or 3rd round pick but a jump up a round will help to add some pieces. If Rudock is traded a QB is likely to be brought in with a 6th (trade) or 7th round pick

DRAFT

1 Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama

Evans is versatile as he can play inside and outside. He brings an aggressiveness that would help bring some teeth to this defense.

2 Will Hernandez, G, UTEP

The Lions are looking to improve their run game and have a huge hole at LG. Hernandez is a mauler that should plug in at either LG or RG (depending on what they want to do with Lang).

3 Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia

The Lions have been linked to a 1st or 2nd round RB in a bunch of mock drafts. They have already said they will run with a RBBC, it's a deep RB class and they have more pressing needs. Chubb is a great value here and is a bit overlooked compared to his teammate Sony Michel. Blount won't be on the team forever and Chubb has a nice blend of speed/power

3 Ian Thomas, TE, Indiana

The Lions have had visits with a number of TE's after releasing Ebron. Thomas won't be relied upon as a starter but should be able to develop and contribute.

4 Foloruso Fatusaki, NT, UCONN

A big body that will be the back up to Sylvester Williams and be the possible successor next season. Assuming the Lions start to run more 3 man fronts. Depth at DL is important

5 Andrew Brown, DE/DT, Virginia

The Lions will be fortunate to have Kerry Hyder return. However we need more depth at the position. Brown is versatile and can play inside and outside

5 William Clapp, OG/OC, LSU

TJ Lang is on borrowed time so the Lions bring in a young, versatile player as a back up and potential starter down the road. With the ability to play OG and OC, he can be moved around the line.

7 Damon Webb, S, Ohio State

The Lions are likely going to run a few more 3 safety looks with Patricia. A young, developmental guy that can play in sub-packages. Potential to develop into something more.

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That trade down is horrible IMO.  Giving 20 and a 4th for 23 and a 3rd is like 6th round value to drop down in the first.  I'll pass unless the Patriots want to give something of value.  Even just getting the third and not giving a 4th would be borderline IMO unless we really like 4 guys at that spot. 

As for the draft, I like the picks. I would like to get more pass rush help early but not sure what will be available at our picks.  Not a huge Chubb fan but is a need and at the expected range. 

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1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

That trade down is horrible IMO.  Giving 20 and a 4th for 23 and a 3rd is like 6th round value to drop down in the first.  I'll pass unless the Patriots want to give something of value.  Even just getting the third and not giving a 4th would be borderline IMO unless we really like 4 guys at that spot. 

As for the draft, I like the picks. I would like to get more pass rush help early but not sure what will be available at our picks.  Not a huge Chubb fan but is a need and at the expected range. 

It was derived from the trade value chart. The Pats don't have a 4th this year and for us to get their 3rd straight up while only moving down 3 spots is somewhat rich. Future picks are always worth one round less. A 2018 5th = 2019 4th.

Evans is a chess piece that can play outside as a pass rusher in 3 man fronts. Combined with Kennard, Ansah and Hyder returning to the fold, we have a decent pass rush.

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9 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

It was derived from the trade value chart. The Pats don't have a 4th this year and for us to get their 3rd straight up while only moving down 3 spots is somewhat rich. Future picks are always worth one round less. A 2018 5th = 2019 4th.

Evans is a chess piece that can play outside as a pass rusher in 3 man fronts. Combined with Kennard, Ansah and Hyder returning to the fold, we have a decent pass rush.

The trade value chart has seemed to be antiquated with recent trades.  I see no point in moving down to pretty much move up 15 spots in the later rounds.  If they want a QBOTF, they can give up their third without getting anything back.  If we trade down, we need to net additional picks, not come out even with a worse 1st rounder.

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I don't like the value of the trade down, but I don't mind trading down. I love your first three picks as well as Clapp in the 5th.

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30 minutes ago, Louis Friend said:

I don't like the value of the trade down, but I don't mind trading down. I love your first three picks as well as Clapp in the 5th.

It basically boiled down to the trade value chart. It's possible we could get the 3rd from the Pats straight up for the trade but I doubt that would happen. Maybe they'd work with a 2019 5th instead.

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If the draft ended up like this I would be ecstatic. I'm not Chubb or Hernandez will be there(I can see Chubb slip or go top of the second) but I would celebrating like I did during the 2013 draft. (The only one I remember being happy about at the time.)

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48 minutes ago, Millenhater said:

If the draft ended up like this I would be ecstatic. I'm not Chubb or Hernandez will be there(I can see Chubb slip or go top of the second) but I would celebrating like I did during the 2013 draft. (The only one I remember being happy about at the time.)

I think Chubb or someone else (Freeman?) could be the pick in round 3. Unless Guice falls to them I have a hard time seeing them selecting someone even in the 2nd. I think Quinn has his eye on rounds 3-4 to address RB barring value. If they can find a future Le'veon Bell or Kareem Hunt in later rounds, they'll wind up getting more of the workload. However I still think they will opt to stick with a RBBC method. I'm not sure Hernandez will be there either but the QB's could push some better talent down the board. You also tend to wind up with runs at different positions. A run at WR or RB could push an OL down the board. It's not the greatest class for OL so I think we would try to address that earlier instead of trying to find a late round gem. 

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9 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

I think Chubb or someone else (Freeman?) could be the pick in round 3. Unless Guice falls to them I have a hard time seeing them selecting someone even in the 2nd. I think Quinn has his eye on rounds 3-4 to address RB barring value. If they can find a future Le'veon Bell or Kareem Hunt in later rounds, they'll wind up getting more of the workload. However I still think they will opt to stick with a RBBC method. I'm not sure Hernandez will be there either but the QB's could push some better talent down the board. You also tend to wind up with runs at different positions. A run at WR or RB could push an OL down the board. It's not the greatest class for OL so I think we would try to address that earlier instead of trying to find a late round gem. 

I hope that's not the case unless the RBs really slide. I don't want to miss out on a stud RB because Quinn got cute.  But that's just me. 

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8 hours ago, Millenhater said:

I hope that's not the case unless the RBs really slide. I don't want to miss out on a stud RB because Quinn got cute.  But that's just me. 

Karnage thinks he's a Bob Quinn whisperer and believes he's found some "patriots way" pattern that will predict Bob Quinn's future moves as a Lions official.

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12 hours ago, Louis Friend said:

Karnage thinks he's a Bob Quinn whisperer and believes he's found some "patriots way" pattern that will predict Bob Quinn's future moves as a Lions official.

I just read the news as it comes out. The beat writers have been talking to him quite a bit over the last week and a half. 

I just read things and then determine to what extent I believe it. We'll see how things shake out on Thursday. Maybe I am the BQ whisperer or maybe none of us have a clue in what we're talking about. 

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1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

I just read the news as it comes out. The beat writers have been talking to him quite a bit over the last week and a half. 

I just read things and then determine to what extent I believe it. We'll see how things shake out on Thursday. Maybe I am the BQ whisperer or maybe none of us have a clue in what we're talking about. 

None of us have any clue what's really going on, that's what makes this time of year so exciting. I have a list of 12 players that I think could be in play for the 20th pick. And there is a chance it ends up not being one of the 12. 

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11 hours ago, Louis Friend said:

None of us have any clue what's really going on, that's what makes this time of year so exciting. I have a list of 12 players that I think could be in play for the 20th pick. And there is a chance it ends up not being one of the 12. 

Bob Quinn himself has even said he has his eye on 5-6 guys at that spot. There's enough teams with a need at QB who have been making moves to line things  up (NYJ, BUF has been active in trying to trade up) where we can reasonably anticipate some solid talent should be pushed down the board.

I listened to  the "Inside the Lions" mock draft and they gave us Taven Bryan, DT, Florida. If that actually is the pick, it would make me right (in my post about the Pats, I specified that the highest probability of our first round selection will go to either a SEC LB or SEC DL). However, I wouldn't like the pick. I could wind up being wrong about it but it's just not who I would pick in that spot.

Luckily we only have a few more days to go before the real deal shows up.

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13 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

Bob Quinn himself has even said he has his eye on 5-6 guys at that spot. There's enough teams with a need at QB who have been making moves to line things  up (NYJ, BUF has been active in trying to trade up) where we can reasonably anticipate some solid talent should be pushed down the board.

I listened to  the "Inside the Lions" mock draft and they gave us Taven Bryan, DT, Florida. If that actually is the pick, it would make me right (in my post about the Pats, I specified that the highest probability of our first round selection will go to either a SEC LB or SEC DL). However, I wouldn't like the pick. I could wind up being wrong about it but it's just not who I would pick in that spot.

Luckily we only have a few more days to go before the real deal shows up.

I've also listened to podcasts and interviews and read plenty of mock drafts. It doesn't give any insider knowledge. 

Lions have been "linked" to Taven Bryan, Marcus Davenport, Da'Ron Payne, Maurice Hurst, Derrius Guice, Will Hernandez, etc. So if any of those players is the pick... suddenly the rumors are right. See how vague that is? 

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1 minute ago, Louis Friend said:

I've also listened to podcasts and interviews and read plenty of mock drafts. It doesn't give any insider knowledge. 

Lions have been "linked" to Taven Bryan, Marcus Davenport, Da'Ron Payne, Maurice Hurst, Derrius Guice, Will Hernandez, etc. So if any of those players is the pick... suddenly the rumors are right. See how vague that is? 

All we can know is from what we are given. You're not thrilled with the idea that they are using some version of the Patriots team model. It seems reasonable and logical to me but unless BQ or MP say "we come from the Patriots and we are going to follow that pattern" then it's all just speculation. I broke down 10 years worth of Pat's drafts to try and find some patterns. I found similar patterns in BQ's last couple drafts. I could be right, I could be wrong... maybe it's just coincidence. We'll see what Thursday and the rest of next weekend brings us. 95% of the time the draft winds up wildly different than we'd expect.

Quinn has said that he has 5 or 6 guys in mind in round 1, mentioned they would be looking more at rounds 2-4 for a RB and MP said he favours the RBBC approach. If that's the case, I have a tough time seeing the Lions taking Guice in Round 1.

I think Davenport is linked because he gets a lot of Ansah comparisons. Ansah is on last year of contract, it's a need, etc.

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