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TheKillerNacho

How much worse are we with Jay Cutler instead of Ryan Tannehill?

Jay Cutler vs Ryan Tannehill  

18 members have voted

  1. 1. If Jay Cutler starts the whole season, how does that affect how you think the season will turn out?

    • We win 1-2 more games
    • We're the same with Cutler as we were with Tannehill (no change)
    • We lose 1-2 more games
    • We lose a LOT more games, drop off from Tannehill to Cutler is steep.
      0
  2. 2. Do you think we can make the playoffs with Cutler?

  3. 3. Who do you feel more comfortable with starting if Tannehill can't go?



25 posts in this topic

So with the signing of Cutler and the likely IR of Tannehill, I want to gage how fellow Dolfans are feeling about this. In the record prediction thread, I said I see us as 9-7. Personally I think Cutler won't be a huge drop-off, considering his previous production with Gase and better supporting cast than he had in Chicago, but I think there will be a minor drop off. Now I see us at 8-8.

Since we weren't a playoff team anyway in my mind, I'm unsure why we're doing this though. Matt Moore would've been a better option since we would be able to roll over more cap into next season and if he really does poorly at least we improve our draft position. Plus, our points per game was actually better under Moore last year than Tannehill, so in my mind he would've been the way to go.

Your thoughts?

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cddolphin    70

My guess is Cutler would be a 1-2 game drop-off. Cutler won't have the same strengths Tannehill exhibited in the latter 2/3rds of the 2016 season: ability on rollout passes, pocket movement, deep ball accuracy. But his familiarity with Gase and his offense made him by far the best available QB.

Moore doesn't have Cutler's arm. Moore would have been good for a floater INT most games. By all accounts Cutler has plenty of zip in his first day of practice. Moore is a good backup to have for a 2-4 game stretch, and remains the next-best option after Cutler.

My original prediction was 9-7 and I viewed anything from 8-8 to 10-6 a very reasonable prediction. If the OL stays healthy, the run game remains effective, and our defense takes a step forward there is a fair chance Miami competes for a wildcard even with Cutler.

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I was going to add one more question but then I forgot. At the poll max anyway... so ill just throw it out for discussion.

IF Cutler plays well and leads us to a postseason birth, do we sign him long term and show Tannehill the door? Personally I'd say no even in that case but I do somewhat worry about this possibility.

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hrubes20    10
54 minutes ago, TheKillerNacho said:

I was going to add one more question but then I forgot. At the poll max anyway... so ill just throw it out for discussion.

IF Cutler plays well and leads us to a postseason birth, do we sign him long term and show Tannehill the door? Personally I'd say no even in that case but I do somewhat worry about this possibility.

I would have to imagine Cutler is a "1 and done" type of guy, unless he puts up otherworldly stats.  He would need more than a WC spot to cement his position as the starting QB of this team.  

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Deadpulse    64

Thats not what you want to see @G08

As a Patriots fan, I am less worried about the Phins with Cutler than I was with Ryan. Tannehill is much more of an athlete than Jay, and that really made him a headache. I also just don't think highly of Cutler at all. As the post above suggest, the man doesnt win you games. 

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G08    2

@Deadpulse I think you will know better than anyone what a top 10-12 defense does for a team. In Belichick's tenure, his teams have had only 4 seasons with a defense ranked worse than 10th (three were 17th, one was 15th).

He'll win you more games than your usual NFL QB with solid defenses, but if you're expecting him to cover for a poor defense, you'll get an average NFL QB (INTs).

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cddolphin    70
3 hours ago, Deadpulse said:

As the post above suggest, the man doesnt win you games. 

You have an interesting way of interpreting that chart.

When his defense allows less than 20 points he wins 85.2% of the time, compared to the NFL average of 77.3% (this makes him statistically better under these conditions).

When his defense allows more than 20 points, he wins 26.2% of the time, compared to the NFL average of 26.5% (this is a negligible difference, one fewer loss would give him an identical win percentage).

 

Seems to me this statistical split only tells us he's above average under under one condition, and dead average under the other.

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Deadpulse    64
1 minute ago, cddolphin said:

You have an interesting way of interpreting that chart.

When his defense allows less than 20 points he wins 85.2% of the time, compared to the NFL average of 77.3% (this makes him statistically better under these conditions).

When his defense allows more than 20 points, he wins 26.2% of the time, compared to the NFL average of 26.5% (this is a negligible difference, one fewer loss would give him an identical win percentage).

 

Seems to me this statistical split only tells us he's above average under under one condition, and dead average under the other.

So he is above average under the easier condition and average at the hard condition. The average QB doesn't win you games either so I don't believe you are really refuting my comment there, but those are stats I wasn't aware of. The chart certainly paints him in a more unattractive light, you have to admit, without the context you provided.

I see a few posts up you see this as likely a game or 2 down the drain, so I feel like we have the same opinion on the guy. There are things that Tannehill brought to the table that Jay does not have, and that will cost Miami a few more than they shouldve lost. 

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cddolphin    70
2 minutes ago, Deadpulse said:

The average QB doesn't win you games either so I don't believe you are really refuting my comment there, but those are stats I wasn't aware of. The chart certainly paints him in a more unattractive light, you have to admit, without the context you provided.

My man, all I did was re-word the chart. I didn't add context. Look at the chart again.

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Deadpulse    64
5 minutes ago, cddolphin said:

My man, all I did was re-word the chart. I didn't add context. Look at the chart again.

My bad, read that post while I was at work :$

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This team is no different with Cutler then it would have been with Tannehill or Moore, Miami's season is going to depend on the defense being a top 10 defense and in points allowed. I count Cutler and Tannehill as equal skills and ability. I do think Cutler has more of a chance to  lead that 4th quarter drive for a win when needed that is something Tannehill was just not good at. I still think this is about the best shape QB wise Miami could be in given the situation with Tannehill.

I still have the same expectations for this season at this point, no more excited and no more concerned and if Cutler goes down I still like Moore over any other non starters out there.

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14 hours ago, cddolphin said:

My guess is Cutler would be a 1-2 game drop-off. Cutler won't have the same strengths Tannehill exhibited in the latter 2/3rds of the 2016 season: ability on rollout passes, pocket movement, deep ball accuracy. But his familiarity with Gase and his offense made him by far the best available QB.

Moore doesn't have Cutler's arm. Moore would have been good for a floater INT most games. By all accounts Cutler has plenty of zip in his first day of practice. Moore is a good backup to have for a 2-4 game stretch, and remains the next-best option after Cutler.

My original prediction was 9-7 and I viewed anything from 8-8 to 10-6 a very reasonable prediction. If the OL stays healthy, the run game remains effective, and our defense takes a step forward there is a fair chance Miami competes for a wildcard even with Cutler.

Just gotta say, Cutler's athleticism and ability out of the pocket and in rollout passes is one of his best strengths.  His deep ball accuracy is hit or miss but if he has a clean pocket and isn't throwing of his back foot, he can sling it with the best of them.  His problem was always decision making.  But as fare as pure talent goes, I don't think you are missing much from Tannehill to Cutler.

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G08    2
Posted (edited)

Decision making under constant duress (I remember Cutler getting sacked 9 times and concussed -- in the FIRST HALF against the Giants) and when playing from behind and he's trying to make a play... you'll see some jaw-dropping throws and you'll see some concussion-inducing frustrating throws.

I'm of the opinion he never got his really bad habits from Vandy out of his system, but again if you keep him clean and give him confidence in the pocket, he'll pick you apart.

I think ya'll will love him.

Edited by G08

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You also have to remember that Cutler never had a combination of offensive talent, offensive line and good defense around him.  In 2010, Cutler took the Bears to first in the NFC North with a first round bye.  The Bears had a very strong defense, and Cutler had...

Aramoshadu, Earl Bennett, Rashied Davis, Devin Hester and Johnny Knox at receiver.  His left tackle was J'Marcus Webb in his rookie year.  The only help he had on offense with a name most fans would even recognize would be Forte and Olsen and maybe Olin Kreutz if you're particularly a fan of offensive line play. 

I doubt very much Cutler is going to beat New England, but I definitely think he will help the Dolphins reach the playoffs.  Ajayi, Landry, Parker, Stills and Thomas is easily a better overall skill position group than anything he's had in Chicago. 

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