Denver looking to trade out of #5?

[titanrick]

This just screams smokescreen to me. If you’re serious about trading down from 5, why announce to the media it’s for sale?  Just start exploring trades with other teams. It’s not like we heard “Indy’s 3rd overall pick is for sale!”  We just heard that they agreed to trade it to the jets. So why would Elway send this smokescreen?  Hard to say but it would make some sense if they are hoping a QB falls to them and worried that teams will anticipate that and jump over them in trade. If the broncos want a QB, then the best case is to have that guy fall to 5 instead of needing to trade up to get him. If they can convince teams that they’re not going QB, it reduces the incentive for those teams to jump up to 2 or 4. Just a thought. 

[CWood21]

2 hours ago, Uncle Buck said:

Sorry.  I didn't word that post as clearly as I should have.  I didn't mean they should wait until as late as they did when they hit the jackpot with Brady, but I do think they could find one later in the first or in the second, and maybe even the third that they could work possibly with.  There are plenty of good quarterbacks in the NFL who weren't taken in the Top 5 picks of the draft.

Even then, history shows us that it's a fool's errand to try and bet that you're going to develop a future starting QB late in the draft.  Look at the success rate of QBs drafted in the 1st round and those not drafted in the 1st round.  It's night and day.  Just because they succeeded in drafting two QBs outside of the 1st round in 18 years doesn't mean they're more likely to do it this year.  In fact, they're more likely to set their franchise back.

You say they're are plenty of good QBs in the NFL who weren't taken in the top 5, which is true but misleading.  What you fail to mention is that the success rate of QBs that aren't drafted in the top 5 are significantly higher than that in the top 5.

[AkronsWitness]

20 hours ago, lancerman said:

Bills have no reason to do it actually. Nobody after Denver is taking a QB. The only risk is if Denver takes someone they might want. But at that point....... Denver now has to unload him and might not get anything comparable to what they could draft there. 

The Bills should only make a trade if it’s for 2 and they absolutely want one of Darnold or Rosen. 

Basically whoever the Browns pick dictates the draft. If it’s Allen, Giants are getting Darnold. If not it looks like Giants bypass QB. 

Teams trade up to avoid another team jumping in front of them for their guy. Same way the Jets moved up to #3 to block off other teams. The Bills need to worry about the Cards/Dolphins leaping up in a Watson/Mahommes situation last year. Do the Bills really want to risk sitting on their hands and have the Cards/Fins trade up in front of them if a guy like Rosen starts sliding when everybody in the NFL knows all of the moves the Bills have made with draft picks was to position themselves for one of the 'big 4'

The Bills will be making a trade. The question is if that trade moves them up to #2, #4 or #5.

[GSUeagles14]

On 4/20/2018 at 11:07 AM, VikeManDan said:

Just basing it off of the TVC as a starting point (which I did not state in my first post). I would fully hope you would get more than that if you trade the pick. 

Pick #5 = 1700

Pick #23 = 760
Pick #31 = 600
Pick #43 = 470
Total = 1830

Net difference of 130 (a low 3rd)

For comparison sake with the Jets and Colts swap:

Pick #3 = 2200

Pick #6 = 1600
Pick #37 = 530
Pick #49 = 410
2019 2nd = 116? (last pick of the 3rd)

Net difference of 456 (roughly a mid 2nd)

The trade proposed lines up with the chart in theory but Elway would be foolish to not ask for more as you suggest. So yes, I would agree with you that, at a minimum, #63 from NE and a future pick would need to be included. I'd be very surprised in NE would due this.

belichick came out and said the version thats out to the public is BS basically. Theres is a value chart teams more or less agree upon however its not the one that gets repeatedly cited here.

[AkronsWitness]

19 hours ago, SteelKing728 said:

If a top 3 QB falls I see them trading out. I see them sticking with Keenum this year.

Me too, I think they really like Keenum and think he can provide 1`-2 years of above average QB play while they use all of their other assets to replenish the talent that left after SB50 like Ware/Ward/Talib, ect.

If they can trade back with the Bills for 12+22 and take Harold Landry + Jaire Alexander to replace Ware/Talib then draft a RB like Nick Chubb in the 2nd round to replace CJ Anderson I think they would be ecstatic. 

[Uncle Buck]

12 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Even then, history shows us that it's a fool's errand to try and bet that you're going to develop a future starting QB late in the draft.  Look at the success rate of QBs drafted in the 1st round and those not drafted in the 1st round.  It's night and day.  Just because they succeeded in drafting two QBs outside of the 1st round in 18 years doesn't mean they're more likely to do it this year.  In fact, they're more likely to set their franchise back.

You say they're are plenty of good QBs in the NFL who weren't taken in the top 5, which is true but misleading.  What you fail to mention is that the success rate of QBs that aren't drafted in the top 5 are significantly higher than that in the top 5.

I agree with a lot of what you said, CW.  I would just be very surprised if BB traded all the way up to the Top 5 to get a QB.  You never know, though.  If some of the reports about infighting and a power struggle between Brady/Kraft and Belichick can be believed, maybe he will trade up and grab a QB just to spite Brady.  It will be interesting to see what happens with that franchise over the next 2-3 years.  

[bzane]

14 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Even then, history shows us that it's a fool's errand to try and bet that you're going to develop a future starting QB late in the draft.  Look at the success rate of QBs drafted in the 1st round and those not drafted in the 1st round.

Oh, yeah?!?! Just look at all the post-first-round quarterbacks the Giants have drafted, this century alone!

Davis Webb.....Ryan Nassib........Rhett Bomar...... Andre Woodson.......Jesse Palmer................................................................................................-

Uh, okay, SORRY, guess you DO have a point there!

[Broncofan]

FWIW Elway’s presser that generated this talk it was basically the following: 

1.  They could take QB.  

2.  They could go nonQB.  

3.  They could trade down.   

4.   They weren’t looking to move up.  

The only really newsworthy part was #4.  And we all know it could be posturing.   Although Elway has been transparent in his draft calls for a while.  The beat reporters’ Klis and Renck advance picks are often spot on.   But this is a year where misinformation might be called for.   

The last time Elway picked this high Von wasn’t the CW pick - most had us going Dareus or Patrick Peterson, only a few had us go with Von.   There Elway was definitely more secretive in his target.   Maybe it’s the case here given the lack of a clear cut tiering.  But the interview itself that led to this discussion was as vanilla in being safe other than stating a preference against moving up.  

[CWood21]

18 hours ago, AkronsWitness said:

Teams trade up to avoid another team jumping in front of them for their guy. Same way the Jets moved up to #3 to block off other teams. The Bills need to worry about the Cards/Dolphins leaping up in a Watson/Mahommes situation last year. Do the Bills really want to risk sitting on their hands and have the Cards/Fins trade up in front of them if a guy like Rosen starts sliding when everybody in the NFL knows all of the moves the Bills have made with draft picks was to position themselves for one of the 'big 4'

The Bills will be making a trade. The question is if that trade moves them up to #2, #4 or #5.

The biggest concern the Bills have is that they don't want to outbid themselves.  Save for Miami, their 1st FRF comes before every QB-needy team EXCEPT Miami.  Miami at 11, Buffalo at 12, Arizona at 15, Baltimore at 16, Los Angeles at 17, New England at 23, New Orleans at 27, and Pittsburgh at 28 are really the only teams who could be in the market for QBs outside the top 10.  So Buffalo's 1st pick (#12) is inherently more valuable than anyone else's FRP.  Even if Miami wants to move up, it's going to take more than their 2nd round pick, because Buffalo can offer both of their 1st round picks this year and that package is more valuable than Miami's 1st & 2nd round picks.

[paul-mac]

37 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

The biggest concern the Bills have is that they don't want to outbid themselves.  Save for Miami, their 1st FRF comes before every QB-needy team EXCEPT Miami.  Miami at 11, Buffalo at 12, Arizona at 15, Baltimore at 16, Los Angeles at 17, New England at 23, New Orleans at 27, and Pittsburgh at 28 are really the only teams who could be in the market for QBs outside the top 10.  So Buffalo's 1st pick (#12) is inherently more valuable than anyone else's FRP.  Even if Miami wants to move up, it's going to take more than their 2nd round pick, because Buffalo can offer both of their 1st round picks this year and that package is more valuable than Miami's 1st & 2nd round picks.

 

It also depends on how the different teams stack the different QBs. The two trends I'm picking up from reading various media pieces in recent days is that Cleveland are taking Sam Darnold at 1 after all, and that the 2nd and 4th picks are unlikely to trade down and will probably stay put and take BPA. It all points to a top 4 of Darnold, Barkley, Mayfield and Chubb with no trades other than the Jets/Colts and Browns/Texans trades that we already know about. This leaves Denver on the clock at 5 with both Josh Allen and Josh Rosen on the board, but if you think about it, having two QBs there and not just one actually reduces the value of the trade.

 

Miami, Buffalo and Arizona seems to be the three teams most linked with a trade up for one of these guys with New England as the dark horse, and then the teams you mention like the Ravens, Chargers, Saints and Steelers being slight possibilities but probably unlikely in the grand scheme of things. Now say there's only one of the QBs left, then you have to try and get up ASAP to get him. But why would the Bills trade the farm when there's 2 QBs there? Why not wait until there's only one left and have to trade a less amount for him? 

 

[CWood21]

30 minutes ago, paul-mac said:

It also depends on how the different teams stack the different QBs. The two trends I'm picking up from reading various media pieces in recent days is that Cleveland are taking Sam Darnold at 1 after all, and that the 2nd and 4th picks are unlikely to trade down and will probably stay put and take BPA. It all points to a top 4 of Darnold, Barkley, Mayfield and Chubb with no trades other than the Jets/Colts and Browns/Texans trades that we already know about. This leaves Denver on the clock at 5 with both Josh Allen and Josh Rosen on the board, but if you think about it, having two QBs there and not just one actually reduces the value of the trade.

 

Miami, Buffalo and Arizona seems to be the three teams most linked with a trade up for one of these guys with New England as the dark horse, and then the teams you mention like the Ravens, Chargers, Saints and Steelers being slight possibilities but probably unlikely in the grand scheme of things. Now say there's only one of the QBs left, then you have to try and get up ASAP to get him. But why would the Bills trade the farm when there's 2 QBs there? Why not wait until there's only one left and have to trade a less amount for him? 

While I certainly understand where you're going with this one, I think teams are going to have a clear preference between Josh Rosen and Josh Allen.  Some teams are probably going to have a preference between the two.  Assuming the top 4 stays put and is Darnold, Barkley, Mayfield, and Chubb that leaves Denver as the new trigger point.  Does Denver like Rosen/Allen enough to stand pat and select a QB?  If not, do they take someone else or do they look to move down knowing the earliest they're likely going to pick would be Miami at 11 or Buffalo at 12?  Given the contract that was handed to Case Keenum, I'm not convinced they'll pass on a QB.  I know @Broncofan has expressed concern that Elway will fall in love with Allen's tools, but I don't think Rosen is a guy that Elway would pass on.  Indianapolis I'm firmly in belief that they'll trade down one more time, probably with Buffalo.