The Baker Mayfield Conundrum

[RandyMossIsBoss]

One of the biggest mysteries to me has been the meteoric rise of Baker's draft stock. I have no trouble seeing why he is considered an early 1st rounder, but I don't understand why he was not held in such high regard until this year. Let me refresh your memory:

 

2015

Mayfield lights it up as a RS Sophomore in his first year at OU: 3700 yards, 36 TDs, 7 INTs, 173.3 passer rating.

Draft Outlook: Very little draft buzz about him despite already being eligible to enter the draft. Considered an average prospect at best, late round pick. Already has system QB label as a guy whose terrific production can be chalked up to OC simplifying everything for him. Is undersized and has a limited arm. Solid but not great athlete.

 

2016

Mayfield has an amazing season: 3960 yards, 40 TDs, 8 INTs, 196.4 passer rating. You can't have a much better statistical year than that. 4 years at school done with.

Draft Outlook: Actually looked at through the lens of an NFL prospect by most now, but you hear much of the same thing, consensus is mid round prospect at best. I did some google time travel and found one draftnik saying "His slender build, playing in a spread offense and a perceived lack of NFL athleticism will make him a likely day three NFL Draft pick. However, Mayfield has this “it” quality that could make him a solid NFL backup quarterback for years. If given the right opportunity, he can be a starter in the NFL in his mid-20s." Walter football listed him as their #13 QB prospect and had him in rounds 4-6: "Improving his field vision, feel, and pocket passing is necessary for Mayfield to have any chance of being an early-round prospect. He is a good college quarterback, but not a pro-caliber signal-caller." Draftwire gave him a day 3 grade: "Undersized passers who are at their best outside the pocket when plays break down can certainly find success in the pros, but for every Russell Wilson there are 10 cautionary tales of guys who just couldn’t cut it." I'm sure there's more. The draftnik community is very much group think, whether intentional or not, they all influence each other, and are obviously influenced by any murmurs from NFL scouts. Rarely is the draftnik consensus far off base from reality, and while there's no way to know for sure, I'm fairly confident it'd be no different here and had Mayfield entered the 2017 draft he'd be a mid to late round pick like everybody was predicting as seen above in December/November of 2016.

 

2017

Mayfield has a slightly better season statistically: 4627 yards, 43 TDs, 6 INTs, 198.9. I think he had already passed the threshold of "wow" numbers as a junior though, and numbers only means so much when it comes to being scouted.

Draft Outlook: In the conversation as best QB in the draft, surefire 1st round pick, currently expected to be the 4th QB off the board and taken in the top 8.

 

So what changed? Did he perfectly address all of his perceived weaknesses (the few in his control) during his senior year, and if so, what exactly did that all entail? Was 1 year of insane production not enough, but seeing 2 years of it just too hard to resist for the NFL? Would the QB desperation fever eventually have turned him into a round 1 prospect anyway had he actually declared for 2017 draft and the draftniks and handful of NFL scouts would have just been proven dead wrong?

 

[jrry32]

It's not a mystery. People don't watch prospects until they are guaranteed to be in the Draft. The guys who get major hype before their final season are usually freakishly gifted players who have been hyped from Day 1 in college.

[Iamcanadian]

1 hour ago, jrry32 said:

It's not a mystery. People don't watch prospects until they are guaranteed to be in the Draft. The guys who get major hype before their final season are usually freakishly gifted players who have been hyped from Day 1 in college.

I agree, pro teams are reluctant to spend a lot of time scouting juniors till they declare unless they are solid top 5 prospects.

However Mayfield did have a real rise in his draft stock in his final season, from a mid round pick to a potential top 5 pick and that does not happen too often.

I think it took substantial scouting to convince them that a short QB was worth drafting that high. After all, Brees was a second rounder and Wilson was a 3rd rounder because they were short and Mayfield really went through the meat grinder to convince scouts that he fit into that category. 

When you think about it, a short QB has probably never gone in round 1 before Mayfield and so scouts and GM's were slow to warm up to that possibility.

I think what helped him an awful lot, was first, the same leadership qualities that Brees shows, second, a very consistent career at Oklahoma for 3 seasons, improving each year and the final straw was how strong an arm he had, it is definitely of pro quality.

He is still very likely to be the #4 QB selected because of his shortness, but that is still pretty impressive for a guy who started the season as a possible 4th to 6th rounder!!!

[VanS]

I don't understand why he's getting 1st round hype RIGHT NOW. 

His tape shows almost zero NFL type throws.  Every play he's standing 10 yards behind the line of scrimmage with ample time to find receivers running wide open.  Because he played on Oklahoma and in the Big 12, his teammates were always significantly more talented than the opposition.  When he was not throwing the ball downfield with zero pressure, he's throwing sideways to guys running screens.  He played in an air raid offense with zero compatibility to the NFL game.  At the combine he measured a little over 6'0" and tested as a poor athlete.

I'd like to know how Baker Mayfield is any different from Rex Grossman? 

Because that's who he reminds me of.  He's not Russell Wilson.  And he's not Drew Brees either.  Both are pie in the sky silly comps.  The closest NFL comp for Baker Mayfield is Rex Grossman.   I think anyone who takes Mayfield in the 1st round is making a huge mistake.  He's by far the biggest risk of the projected 1st round QBs.  I would personally take Kyle Lauletta (Richmond) over him.  I think that guy has more developmental potential as a 2nd round pick.

[JaguarCrazy2832]

1 hour ago, VanS said:

I don't understand why he's getting 1st round hype RIGHT NOW. 

His tape shows almost zero NFL type throws.  Every play he's standing 10 yards behind the line of scrimmage with ample time to find receivers running wide open.  Because he played on Oklahoma and in the Big 12, his teammates were always significantly more talented than the opposition.  When he was not throwing the ball downfield with zero pressure, he's throwing sideways to guys running screens.  He played in an air raid offense with zero compatibility to the NFL game.  At the combine he measured a little over 6'0" and tested as a poor athlete.

I'd like to know how Baker Mayfield is any different from Rex Grossman? 

Because that's who he reminds me of.  He's not Russell Wilson.  And he's not Drew Brees either.  Both are pie in the sky silly comps.  The closest NFL comp for Baker Mayfield is Rex Grossman.   I think anyone who takes Mayfield in the 1st round is making a huge mistake.  He's by far the biggest risk of the projected 1st round QBs.  I would personally take Kyle Lauletta (Richmond) over him.  I think that guy has more developmental potential as a 2nd round pick.

I know its just 1 game but the GA game he made a ton of plays vs a legit SEC defense

[VanS]

1 hour ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I know its just 1 game but the GA game he made a ton of plays vs a legit SEC defense

In the first half, he made plays that looked a lot like what he did all year against Big 12 defenses.  I would say it was Lincoln Riley out-scheming Kirby Smart more than anything.  Then in the 2nd half, the Georgia coaches figured out what Oklahoma was doing schematically and Mayfield looked like a totally different player.  The pocket started collapsing.  He was finally forced to make throws with pressure in his face.  It was at this point he started to look small and was forced into making mistakes.  His lack of athleticism was also exposed as he struggled to get out of the pocket and throw the ball on the run.  The 2nd half against Georgia is what the NFL is gonna look like and it wasn't pretty for Baker Mayfield.  Maybe he gets paired with an offensive genius of a head coach that will out-scheme opponents for him.  But in terms of physical attributes, I just don't see how he can become a big time QB in the NFL.

Mayfield also looked bad to me during the senior bowl game.  Sure he didn't play much but in the little he did play, he once again looked "small".  His passes were getting batted down at the line of scrimmage by defensive line and his dropbacks from under center also looked awkward as he failed to get proper depth on his throws.  He should improve with the dropbacks with the more familiarity he gets with a pro-style offense.  But it does show that he doesn't know some of the simplest pro concepts right now.

Now I should make myself clear.  I'm not saying he's a surefire bust.  All I'm saying is there is no way I would take him in the 1st round.  Of the top QB prospects in this class, he has the most question marks by far as well as the least in terms of natural ability.  His entire resume is a projection.  With the other top QB prospects, there is an elite trait or two you can point at.  Lamar has elite athleticism.  Allen has an elite arm.  Rosen looks like a NFL QB in the way he throws.  And Sam Darnold has mobility and creativity in the pocket.  Baker Mayfield has no single physical trait you can point to that suggests he'll have huge success in NFL.  And there is also nothing in his tape in terms of NFL throws or an NFL type of game.  Baker is a total projection as an NFL QB.

[bucsfan333]

He's my favorite QB in this class and I think he's the second QB off the board.

[AlNFL19]

Is the title supposed to say "conundrum?"

[#39 Fan]

Johnny Football is affecting his stock for some reason (tho they are nothing alike as prospects) I put a large portion of the blame on Manziel. 

 

 

mayfield will be a star star at the next level. 

[CWood21]

5 hours ago, VanS said:

His tape shows almost zero NFL type throws.

If you want to say that you felt like Riley's offensive scheme masqueraded his issues, and made him look better than he actually was.  But this is blatantly false.

[Scout]

35 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

If you want to say that you felt like Riley's offensive scheme masqueraded his issues, and made him look better than he actually was.  But this is blatantly false.

This is the same guy that has Josh Allen #1 and had Dobbs #1 last year... 

[CWood21]

4 minutes ago, Scout said:

This is the same guy that has Josh Allen #1 and had Dobbs #1 last year... 

I mean, I'm all for different takes but at least support your stances.

[Teen Girl Squad]

The number one thing I scout for with QBs in accuracy. It is pretty much the only common trait in high level NFL QBs and I'm of the opinion that its more inherent than coachable. Mayfield is probably the most accurate passer in this class at all levels of the field. Everything else he has at least meets the NFL minimum requirements for draftable QBs. His offense and lack of pressure experience is a concern but I think those are significantly more "coachable" than someone like Allen learning to be more accurate.

[BleedTheClock]

8 hours ago, jrry32 said:

It's not a mystery. People don't watch prospects until they are guaranteed to be in the Draft. The guys who get major hype before their final season are usually freakishly gifted players who have been hyped from Day 1 in college.

100% this. I armchair scouted him early in his career. I assumed he was going to be another Case Keenum. Way off on that when I actually sat down and formally evaluated him.

[Rich7sena]

It takes time for boards to be sorted and teams to stack up players. Unlike players with first round hopes before the season like Luck or Winston, Mayfield had obvious on field and off field question marks for teams to sort out, and it takes an offseason to do it. Look back no further to last year and Patrick Mahomes.