Broncos QB Battle - Siemian it is

[BroncoBruin]

Just now, elliot878 said:

 

Problem is the roster surrounding those QB's cannot compete for a Super Bowl.  Does Elway spend the money knowing the surrounding pieces will get him to mediocrity and a cap situation that will take years to fix?  Idk.

The team would be loaded in 2018 and 2019, you make the move to a win a championship one of the two years. We'll never have a defense this good again, can't play the long game with Von and CHJ in their primes IMO.

[jsthomp2007]

I was truly underwhelmed by all the QBs.  Thinking that maybe AJ McCarron wouldn't be so bad.  He scared me when the Broncos were making their Super Bowl run.  I actually preferred seeing the Steelers vs. the Bengals that year, knowing that McCarron would start.  

[elliot878]

13 hours ago, BroncoBruin said:

The team would be loaded in 2018 and 2019, you make the move to a win a championship one of the two years. We'll never have a defense this good again, can't play the long game with Von and CHJ in their primes IMO.

Not that I want to play the long game, but this defense needs at least 3 improvements in the front 7, looking at NT, DE and ILB.  That doesn't account for depth needed either.  The run defense is porous as currently constructed. This teams further off than just a QB from competing for Super Bowls.

[AnAngryAmerican]

On 8/11/2017 at 2:47 PM, Broncofan said:

The problem is that VJ and Elway committed to a 2-game trial.   The right move is to recognize when it won't work.  Don't know if they will change course though.

This is illustrative of something that really concerns me. In 2015, Gary Kubiak was able to navigate a very dicey QB situation with Peyton and Brock. He handled it, according to all observers internally and externally, perfectly. Kubiak was a veteran - 9 seasons as a NFL player, 22 seasons as a NFL coach including 9 as a HC - who knew instinctively how the handle the situation, which was very tricky between managing egos, worrying about the future of the franchise and keeping the locker room together as the team was clearly poised for a Super Bowl run. 

Vance is so new this whole thing, a rookie HC and only 12 seasons as a NFL assistant coach,  11 of which were as a position coach on the defensive side of the ball, can navigate this thing? Ben has already mentioned twice, and I've agreed with it, is that there is a real risk here of losing the locker room or at least fracturing it. I believe it was Benjamin Albright who Tweeted Thursday night/Friday morning that he had spoken with "several players" via text and they all acknowledged the QB battle is over and Siemian has won. How much longer can Vance drag this thing out before it causes problems? I know they agreed to split 50/50 since the start of OTAs and said they won't make a decision until after the Niners game this week, but come on, the circumstances change you have to change your plans. 

There is a real chance that the wheels come off this season before we even get to October. You think the veterans on defense with big personalities like Aquib Talib, TJ Ward and Derek Wolfe, to name just a few, are going to sit back quietly while the coaching staff does things that they clearly disagree with? If go sideways early, it's not only to cause problems internally with the players but it will also cause major problems for the whole franchise as the fan base will turn on Vance real quick, especially considering he is not coach that the vast majority preferred. 

[AnAngryAmerican]

4 minutes ago, elliot878 said:

Not that I want to play the long game, but this defense needs at least 3 improvements in the front 7, looking at NT, DE and ILB.  That doesn't account for depth needed either.  The run defense is porous as currently constructed. This teams further off than just a QB from competing for Super Bowls.

That's something I've been saying since the offseason began. Elway went "bargain bin" shopping when we needed to buy top shelf to fix some very glaring problems. 

[elliot878]

33 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

That's something I've been saying since the offseason began. Elway went "bargain bin" shopping when we needed to buy top shelf to fix some very glaring problems. 

 

He did need to get one top shelf guy, that's for sure.  But relative to the rest of the leagues cap space, the space the broncos had (seemingly a lot), wasn't much.  Also, Elway was probably smart to not blow his load on position players last offseason in case a QB didn't emerge and he would have to pay a FA down the line.  He knows QB is key to SB success... SB50 was a complete anomaly, almost never does a team win with a weak QB and great d.  Twice in 20 years that's happened.

[jsthomp2007]

I guess if you are solidifying your OL with a LT, then maybe Elway is preparing to attract a top tier QB to the league.  Somebody hasn't been talked about who I think would make an awesome Bronco would be Matthew Stafford if the Lions cannot come to terms with him.  He got better without Calvin Johnson there...but, he will never get rid of the Lion mystique.. 

[BroncoBruin]

5 hours ago, elliot878 said:

Not that I want to play the long game, but this defense needs at least 3 improvements in the front 7, looking at NT, DE and ILB.  That doesn't account for depth needed either.  The run defense is porous as currently constructed. This teams further off than just a QB from competing for Super Bowls.

I disagree. Get a really good QB on this team right now and it's a Super Bowl contender. Much weaker rosters have won Super Bowls.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, BroncoBruin said:

I disagree. Get a really good QB on this team right now and it's a Super Bowl contender. Much weaker rosters have won Super Bowls.

Elite QB can mask weaknesses on a contender, for sure.   A "good" QB is probably not enough, though.   Elite D's have won with bad QB's, and elite QB's have won with teams with holes.   Very few non-elite QB's on flawed teams have won.   Flacco getting mega-hot might be one notable exception in recent past.    The killer part about SB winning teams that we lack is that very few SB winning teams weren't good in the trenches, especially in run D (unless they had the top 3-4 QB to mask it).   They could be weak elsewhere, but getting pounded in the run game is an Achilles really good teams exploit mercilessly.  It's no coincidence the most successful teams last year had great OL play - we'd never get past a team that could neutralize our biggest strength (pass rush & No Fly Zone) by simply avoiding passing downs with a strong run game.

So, sure, an elite QB could help a lot.  Problem is cap-wise we don't have enough to get an established "elite" QB, and likely there won't be anyone available, anyways - very few of those guys leave.  Cousins is going to get paid by someone who will pay more than we can afford.   Is Stafford an elite QB?  I don't think he's quite there yet...and man, he's going to get paid more than we likely can afford.   The rest aren't going anywhere (and Stafford likely gets franchise tagged if they can't come to a deal, at 16.5M he won't get the crazy bump in salary Cousins will get next year that makes a 3rd tag impossible).  

The reality is with our cap situation, we need to be more complete, and then find better QB play now and in 2018 than the play we got in 2015 (where we had few to no holes) or 2016.   If Siemian or Lynch can do it great.   If not though realistically given our team overall talent we aren't sniffing the top 3 qb next year in the draft.  We're not bad enough to even think about being close to getting one of the rookies in next year's class who are polished (I mean, the Browns, Jets and 49ers are going all out to tank this year, CLE is aiming all their players to 2018 success, and they have a ton of cap room now).  

We also don't have enough cap space to dream about the Cousins-level FA's - we're still in the bottom 10-12 teams in the league there.   Really, our best hope is to get progression from one of our guys to be better than average, and then be more complete, like we were in 2015.   The thing is, hitting on the 2011 draft and finding FA bargains is what made our 2015 team so good.  It's why the most recent draft is so crucial to our 2018+ plans.  It's what makes Lynch progressing by next year week 1 at latest as the ideal - he's just nowhere even close to helping now.  

[BroncoSojia]

I feel like we're in the same situation as the Ravens from 2003-2008. They drafted an inaccurate project in the first round back in 2003 and spent the next 4-5 years trying to get him up to snuff to no avail. In the process, (outside of 2006) they wasted some pretty good years of their defense, and in the end it cost Brian Billick his job. Joe Flacco finally stabilized their QB position and they went on a pretty successful run for the next 5 years.

 

I just hope we don't spend that much time on Lynch and realize sooner rather than later if he's just a sunk cost and cut our losses.

[thebestever6]

1 hour ago, BroncoSojia said:

I feel like we're in the same situation as the Ravens from 2003-2008. They drafted an inaccurate project in the first round back in 2003 and spent the next 4-5 years trying to get him up to snuff to no avail. In the process, (outside of 2006) they wasted some pretty good years of their defense, and in the end it cost Brian Billick his job. Joe Flacco finally stabilized their QB position and they went on a pretty successful run for the next 5 years.

 

I just hope we don't spend that much time on Lynch and realize sooner rather than later if he's just a sunk cost and cut our losses.

elway has never and I don't think he ever will be able to do that. Hell if he realized Brock was gonna suck two years in which anyone with eyeballs should be able too. We could of cut our losses and got a derek carr, or jimmy g. But we stick it out with Brock because elway is stubborn till the better end. And than draft a mobile better potentially Brock Osweiler. I can't completely bash elway on taking lynch. I loved Lynch, and Prescott for this team. I really feel the dui hurt us looking harder at Dak.

 

Hindsight Dak is all we needed quick reads, smart with the football, a leader, and most importantly hes a top 16 qb in this league with top 10 potential. Hindsight not getting that guy may have cost us some Championships.

[broncos67]

1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

elway has never and I don't think he ever will be able to do that. Hell if he realized Brock was gonna suck two years in which anyone with eyeballs should be able too. We could of cut our losses and got a derek carr, or jimmy g. But we stick it out with Brock because elway is stubborn till the better end. And than draft a mobile better potentially Brock Osweiler. I can't completely bash elway on taking lynch. I loved Lynch, and Prescott for this team. I really feel the dui hurt us looking harder at Dak.

 

Hindsight Dak is all we needed quick reads, smart with the football, a leader, and most importantly hes a top 16 qb in this league with top 10 potential. Hindsight not getting that guy may have cost us some Championships.

Dak Prescott plays behind one of the best OLs in modern memory, and had a very simplified offense and maybe one of the league's best young players (if not a questionable person).

To say Dak could come here with a Swiss cheese OL and everything would be the same is a huge stretch and probably not true at all.

I do agree with you though, Elway is going to stick with Lynch longer than he should. If I was him, I'd be eyeing up this year's loaded QB class if Lynch doesn't suddenly clikc. It's quite clear he's going to need even more time. How much more does he actually deserve?

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, broncos67 said:

Dak Prescott plays behind one of the best OLs in modern memory, and had a very simplified offense and maybe one of the league's best young players (if not a questionable person).

To say Dak could come here with a Swiss cheese OL and everything would be the same is a huge stretch and probably not true at all.

I do agree with you though, Elway is going to stick with Lynch longer than he should. If I was him, I'd be eyeing up this year's loaded QB class if Lynch doesn't suddenly clikc. It's quite clear he's going to need even more time. How much more does he actually deserve?

Before everyone falls all over Prescott as the guy we should have taken, let's see how he fares when he doesn't have a top 3 OL blocking for him.   He could still very well succeed, but last year's success was all about that OL and Elliott making it as easy for anyone to succeed.   If Zeke misses 6 games and the OL having to replace 2 of the 5 spots (Collins is very talented, so one of them seems OK, the other is very iffy), we might very well get a much better look at his true skill set.  

Re: Lynch and cutting bait, the issue we have to acknowledge is the price.  Elway invested a 1st rounder and traded up to get him, giving up a 3rd rounder.  He won't turn his back on Lynch this year for sure - and to be perfectly frank, he shouldn't.  Lynch always had the risk he could need 2 years of development time.  No matter how optimistic the fanbase could be, that's not uncommon for raw talents like him who came from a spread scheme.   Having said that, let's not confuse not turning your back for 2018 and thinking he's ready now - another half-season, or even full season, of learning, could do him a lot of good - but there's no way on God's green earth 4 weeks is long enough.   Not when he's shown a growth curve that's really flat in the areas he needs to improve in.   If he doesn't make the leap, then yeah, really kills us - we could have kept the 3rd rounder, and likely gotten more OL help, and if we had stood pat, most CW had us taking Chris Jones as the DE to replace Malik Jackson.   Imagine us with an actual OL from Rd 3 and Jones as DE?   That's a MAJOR upgrade.  Oh well, what's done is done.  If Lynch takes 2 years to become a starter at league-average ability, then it's still OK - but if he doesn't, well, it's true that 1st round QB's can make or break team's future for 2-3 years minimum.  

Re: next year's class, the problem with thinking about next year's QB class is there are literally 5 teams that have specifically planned for next year - Buffalo has 6 picks in the first 3 rounds, and they can walk away from Taylor's contract very easily after 2018, making him a placeholder (and if they cut him next year, they'd have 50M in cap space, as it is, they have 40M+ with rollover).  The Jets have 68M in cap space.  The Browns have 60M+ .  The 49ers have 55M.    The Browns & Bills have 2 first round picks.   They both will pick well ahead of us.   The 49ers and Jets picked terrible starting QB's, so they likely don't even need to trade up, and clearly CLE is thinking that way, with playing a raw rookie QB, and waiving guys like Gary Barnidge (who could help them win now).    

And for the 2 teams with QB's who could be FA's, DET & WAS - DET has 65M in cap space.   Only WAS is in trouble, with 15M or so.  But you can see how there are 5 teams already with much earlier picks, and a ton of money, where there are 3 young draft QB's going early, and 2 FA's.   

Us?  We have somewhere between 15-20M, depending on rollover.  We don't have extra picks in Rd 1.   Add it all up, I don't think we have a serious shot at 2018's top class, or Cousins.  DET has way more $ to worry about losing Stafford, they can franchise him at 20M without even blinking, 25M wouldn't faze them.    So DET likely keeps Stafford, and can outpay anyone not in the other group, and the other group has 4 teams who can target Cousins and the 3 top QB's in next year's draft class.   Someone mentioned A-Rod, he's still under contract until 2019, BTW (pipe dream anyways, GB is keeping him until he retires).    

So yeah, I agree Elway shouldn't wait too long for Lynch - but the way things worked out, Elway probably at least needs to let him develop long enough to see if he's ready by Week 1 2018 - once you invest in a QB as much as Elway did with Lynch, knowing how raw he was, 2 years is the minimum commitment he has to stick to.  I'd be thrilled if Lynch was ready earlier, but Week 1 2018 is Lynch's drop-dead date, so to speak.   It's not encouraging at all given the flat growth curve we've seen so far but it is what is, given our cap situation, and how 5-6 other teams have really positioned themselves for 2018's class with more draft and cap ammo to outgun us by a mile.

[BroncoBruin]

Maybe some others can say "I told you so" with Dak but personally I thought he was a bad prospect (5th-7th round guy elevated by media hype) and I was terrified that Elway was going to draft him. I was pretty wrong about Dak no matter what, but I'm not necessarily buying that I was 100% off, maybe he's just totally special but I think he'll see his fair share of second year struggles.

[BroncoBruin]

The funny thing with Lynch is it was pretty common knowledge that he needed a couple years to sit. None of us were oblivious to that, I think. How did we rationalize drafting him at the time when it meant a couple years of pretty rough QB play in transition? Probably overrated the capability of the team around journeyman QBs, so now it seems more desperate as we see how flawed this team is as constructed.