Cheese Curds: Green Bay Packers Updates

[JDBrocks]

5 hours ago, perrynoid said:

Why claim that Rodgers is underpaid, and not that the others listed are overpaid?  Back in the day, my friend who played for the Falcons got 200K one year, and he had set a record for sacks by a LB as a rookie (16).

Because that’s what the market dictates. The league and contracts, much like the economy in general, changes. He’s underpaid. The best player in the game making the 8th most money at his position is underpaid anyway you slice it.

[Cearbhall]

5 hours ago, perrynoid said:

Why claim that Rodgers is underpaid, and not that the others listed are overpaid?  Back in the day, my friend who played for the Falcons got 200K one year, and he had set a record for sacks by a LB as a rookie (16).

Florio often goes to great extremes to advance his own agenda rather than sticking to reporting news and rumors. It gets nauseating at times but I still read PFT. As soon as I find a new place that does as good of a job of reporting news and rumors I'll drop PFT from my reading rotation owing to some of Florio's personal agenda he continually brings up.

As far as claiming Rogers is underpaid, in this instance I agree with Florio; Rogers is underpaid. Tom Brady has been even more severely underpaid than Aaron Rogers. Also, I find it in the Vikings interests to see Rogers get paid his true value (or a bit over his true value). When my personal agenda lines up with Florio's it bothers me less when he pushes the topic. My interest is in the MN Vikings and Florio often times has personal biases that favor the Vikings. He is a closet Vikings fan IMO.

[SemperFeist]

11 hours ago, Cearbhall said:

He is a closet Vikings fan IMO.

There’s nothing in the closet. It’s well known that Florio grew up a Vikings fan. 

[Cearbhall]

2 hours ago, SemperFeist said:

There’s nothing in the closet. It’s well known that Florio grew up a Vikings fan. 

How well known? I haven't seen anything substantiating that claim. Not that I've looked too hard, but I did just search briefly and all I found was something on Wikipedia and a very small amount of unsubstantiated suggestions that Florio is a Vikings fan. 

I don't doubt it. I just wonder if anyone actually knows that Florio is a Vikings fan. Has he actually said that anywhere?

[JDBrocks]

41 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

How well known? I haven't seen anything substantiating that claim. Not that I've looked too hard, but I did just search briefly and all I found was something on Wikipedia and a very small amount of unsubstantiated suggestions that Florio is a Vikings fan. 

I don't doubt it. I just wonder if anyone actually knows that Florio is a Vikings fan. Has he actually said that anywhere?

Florio, 44, an erstwhile Vikings fan living in Steelers country, began his blog in 2001 as a sideline to his law practice.

[SemperFeist]

54 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

How well known? I haven't seen anything substantiating that claim. Not that I've looked too hard, but I did just search briefly and all I found was something on Wikipedia and a very small amount of unsubstantiated suggestions that Florio is a Vikings fan. 

I don't doubt it. I just wonder if anyone actually knows that Florio is a Vikings fan. Has he actually said that anywhere?

It certainly was never a secret when Florio and PFT first started. He’s since distanced himself from declaring any sort of fandom, for obvious reasons.

But Florio, himself, has said it multiple times over the years on his near weekly segment with Paul Allen on KFAN. 

[Cearbhall]

12 minutes ago, JDBrocks said:

Florio, 44, an erstwhile Vikings fan living in Steelers country, began his blog in 2001 as a sideline to his law practice.

That was the source of the wikipedia claim that he is a Vikings fan, but it is not clear where that claim comes from. I can't find any evidence of Florio owing up to it. Ergo, he is still in the closet about the team he is a fan of as far as I can tell. That leaves me right where I was before. IMO, he is a closet Vikings fan. Until he comes out or does something to make me think otherwise I'll continue to think he's a closet Vikings fan.

[Cearbhall]

Just now, SemperFeist said:

But Florio, himself, has said it multiple times over the years on his near weekly segment with Paul Allen on KFAN. 

I would be interested in hearing one of the times. Or at least a report with a direct quote attributed to him. Not that it matters much but it would be interesting to see confirmation of the suspicion.

[JDBrocks]

10 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

That was the source of the wikipedia claim that he is a Vikings fan, but it is not clear where that claim comes from. I can't find any evidence of Florio owing up to it. Ergo, he is still in the closet about the team he is a fan of as far as I can tell. That leaves me right where I was before. IMO, he is a closet Vikings fan. Until he comes out or does something to make me think otherwise I'll continue to think he's a closet Vikings fan.

The claim comes from the journalist talking to him. He didn't just make it up.

[swede700]

13 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

That was the source of the wikipedia claim that he is a Vikings fan, but it is not clear where that claim comes from. I can't find any evidence of Florio owing up to it. Ergo, he is still in the closet about the team he is a fan of as far as I can tell. That leaves me right where I was before. IMO, he is a closet Vikings fan. Until he comes out or does something to make me think otherwise I'll continue to think he's a closet Vikings fan.

 

10 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

I would be interested in hearing one of the times. Or at least a report with a direct quote attributed to him. Not that it matters much but it would be interesting to see confirmation of the suspicion.

He often has said it on KFAN.  Since he's working on a national level, he's not nearly the fan he was growing up, but he has often talked about following the Fran Tarkenton era and how that made him a Vikings fan.  You can listen to him though and still, while he keeps it bottled up, you can sense that he would be ecstatic if the Vikings were to win the Super Bowl.  I think it was the Tice era that soured him some, which is why, in the early days of PFT, he was always writing about the "Meathead" Tice.  

[SteelKing728]

19 hours ago, JDBrocks said:

Florio, 44, an erstwhile Vikings fan living in Steelers country, began his blog in 2001 as a sideline to his law practice.

Hey, I'm not the only one!!!

[vike daddy]

The NFL announced a two-game suspension for Aaron Jones for violation of the league’s substance abuse policy. The Packers running back said on Twitter he takes responsibility, regrets his mistake and accepts the suspension.

Jones: “The NFL announced my suspension today, I accept it, take responsibility for it, and regret the mistake that I made during the 2017 season which led to the punishment. I’ve let down my family, teammates, coaches, the Packers’ front office, Packers’ fans, UTEP, UTEP fans, and the communities of El Paso and Green Bay. I apologize to all impacted and promise that this will never happen again and when I touch the field again it’s going to be special.”

Jones, 23, rushed for 448 yards and four touchdowns last season as a rookie. He can participate in training camp and the preseason. His regular-season debut can’t come until Week 3, though.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/07/03/aaron-jones-takes-responsibility-regrets-mistake-accepts-suspension/

[Krauser]

If you’re interested in a lengthy, detailed, intelligent analysis of the Packers offseason, and where their team is at, you can’t do better than @AlexGreen#20‘s post on the GB board: 

I’ll quote his conclusion, but it’s worth clicking through to read the whole thing:

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This offseason has the potential to hit big. If Graham and Wilkerson both have “Julius Peppers” career revitalizations, this team could be very very good on both sides of the ball. Alternatively, if things go bad, this could be the worst secondary in the NFL, and Davante Adams might be the only legitimate passing target.

When Ted Thompson was the General Manager of the Packers, you knew whereabouts this team was going to fall if Aaron Rodgers was healthy. With Gutekunst in charge, and a new coaching staff in place, that’s far from the case. That might be a good thing. Only time will tell.

I still think the Packers are off their peak (2010-11 their very best, 2009-14 more broadly), but the shakeup in management and coaching has the potential to turn things around. 

I’m skeptical of the decision to go with coordinators / schemes that were most successful a few years back. Philbin (new OC) and Pettine (new DC) had their best years around 2010 (like McCarthy himself) and haven’t had much recent success. They’ll need a lot from Jimmy Graham (32 this year) and post-injury Mo Wilkerson (29), a couple of former All Pros who haven’t played at that level for a few years. They’ll also need a bunch of 1st and 2nd year players to play well from day one in order to revitalize a secondary that was terrible last year.

Rodgers (35 this year) too, for all his moments of brilliance, hasn’t had a great-by-his-standards season since 2014. As a Vikings fan, I’m nowhere near impartial in looking for signs of decline, but it seems noteworthy that Rodgers’ last 3 seasons as a starter (2015-17) were all worse than any single season of his from 2009-14 in terms of YPA, Y/C, NY/A and ANY/A. Rodgers’ record as a starter over those 3 years is 24-15 (.615, roughly equivalent to a 10-6 season), where it was 64-22 from 2009-14 (.744, roughly equivalent to a 12-4 season). 

I was writing in mid-2015 that I thought the Packers lacked enough young blue chip players to maintain their level of success. I predicted they’d be a 10 win team going forward, not a 12 win team. Since then, they’ve won 10, 10 and 7 games in the regular season, with Pythagorean win totals of 9, 9 and 6, and DVOA rankings of 10th, 7th and 17th. 

They do have some blue chip, prime age talent: Bakhtiari (27 this year) is an elite LT, Adams (26) is a top 10-15 WR, and Kenny Clark (still only 23!) is a fantastic player at DL. Mike Daniels (29) is very good, and they’ve got some quality IOL in Linsley (27) at least, and maybe Lane Taylor (29).

But they’re still lacking blue chip players at star positions, especially on defense. At edge, Perry (28) is OK but nothing special, and Matthews (32) is getting up there and isn’t a game changer anymore. King (23), Alexander (21) and Jackson (22) are 3 highly drafted, talented young CBs, but the Packers have struggled to turn talent into performance at CB for several years now, so we’ll have to wait and see. Clinton-Dix (26) had a bad year last year, maybe he can turn it around. Blake Martinez (24) gets to clean up behind Daniels and Clark in the run game, his tackle totals are impressive but he’s something of a liability in coverage.

On offense, Randall Cobb (28), like the Packers offense in general, hasn’t had a great year since 2014. Bulaga (29) is a good RT, but he’s been hurt a lot, and it’s not clear how well he’ll recover. They may need to start Jason Spriggs or Kyle Murphy, neither of whom have done much yet (but Packers OL always seem to improve with development, so they should be at least OK in the long run). They’re planning to start Geronimo Allison (24) or one of 3 late round rookies as the other outside WR. RB by committee will be Aaron Jones (24) and Jamaal Williams (23), who had their moments as rookies last year.

Overall, it’s a team with some top level talent in a couple of key areas (DL, LT, Rodgers and his top 2 targets in the passing game) and some big question marks elsewhere (especially the secondary).

The Packers fans party line is that they were Super Bowl favorites last year when Rodgers got hurt, and would’ve won the division if it wasn’t for that injury. Now that Rodgers is healthy again, the “NFC runs through Green Bay”, or whatever Tony Romo said. 

Optimistically, the new coordinators and schemes may be able to get more out of players who didn’t play well last year or who seem to be falling off with age (HHCD, Wilkerson, Matthews, Graham, Cobb, even gulp, Rodgers), while maximizing the potential of their young secondary, receiving depth and RB by committee. But a more skeptical analysis suggests the Packers will need too many things to break just right to be expected to live up to those lofty preseason expectations. 

 

[AlexGreen#20]

5 minutes ago, Krauser said:

If you’re interested in a lengthy, detailed, intelligent analysis of the Packers offseason, and where their team is at, you can’t do better than @AlexGreen#20‘s post on the GB board: 

I’ll quote his conclusion, but it’s worth clicking through to read the whole thing:

I still think the Packers are off their peak (2010-11 their very best, 2009-14 more broadly), but the shakeup in management and coaching has the potential to turn things around. 

I’m skeptical of the decision to go with coordinators / schemes that were most successful a few years back. Philbin (new OC) and Pettine (new DC) had their best years around 2010 (like McCarthy himself) and haven’t had much recent success. They’ll need a lot from Jimmy Graham (32 this year) and post-injury Mo Wilkerson (29), a couple of former All Pros who haven’t played at that level for a few years. They’ll also need a bunch of 1st and 2nd year players to play well from day one in order to revitalize a secondary that was terrible last year.

Rodgers (35 this year) too, for all his moments of brilliance, hasn’t had a great-by-his-standards season since 2014. As a Vikings fan, I’m nowhere near impartial in looking for signs of decline, but it seems noteworthy that Rodgers’ last 3 seasons as a starter (2015-17) were all worse than any single season of his from 2009-14 in terms of YPA, Y/C, NY/A and ANY/A. Rodgers’ record as a starter over those 3 years is 24-15 (.615, roughly equivalent to a 10-6 season), where it was 64-22 from 2009-14 (.744, roughly equivalent to a 12-4 season). 

I was writing in mid-2015 that I thought the Packers lacked enough young blue chip players to maintain their level of success. I predicted they’d be a 10 win team going forward, not a 12 win team. Since then, they’ve won 10, 10 and 7 games in the regular season, with Pythagorean win totals of 9, 9 and 6, and DVOA rankings of 10th, 7th and 17th. 

They do have some blue chip, prime age talent: Bakhtiari (27 this year) is an elite LT, Adams (26) is a top 10-15 WR, and Kenny Clark (still only 23!) is a fantastic player at DL. Mike Daniels (29) is very good, and they’ve got some quality IOL in Linsley (27) at least, and maybe Lane Taylor (29).

But they’re still lacking blue chip players at star positions, especially on defense. At edge, Perry (28) is OK but nothing special, and Matthews (32) is getting up there and isn’t a game changer anymore. King (23), Alexander (21) and Jackson (22) are 3 highly drafted, talented young CBs, but the Packers have struggled to turn talent into performance at CB for several years now, so we’ll have to wait and see. Clinton-Dix (26) had a bad year last year, maybe he can turn it around. Blake Martinez (24) gets to clean up behind Daniels and Clark in the run game, his tackle totals are impressive but he’s something of a liability in coverage.

On offense, Randall Cobb (28), like the Packers offense in general, hasn’t had a great year since 2014. Bulaga (29) is a good RT, but he’s been hurt a lot, and it’s not clear how well he’ll recover. They may need to start Jason Spriggs or Kyle Murphy, neither of whom have done much yet (but Packers OL always seem to improve with development, so they should be at least OK in the long run). They’re planning to start Geronimo Allison (24) or one of 3 late round rookies as the other outside WR. RB by committee will be Aaron Jones (24) and Jamaal Williams (23), who had their moments as rookies last year.

Overall, it’s a team with some top level talent in a couple of key areas (DL, LT, Rodgers and his top 2 targets in the passing game) and some big question marks elsewhere (especially the secondary).

The Packers fans party line is that they were Super Bowl favorites last year when Rodgers got hurt, and would’ve won the division if it wasn’t for that injury. Now that Rodgers is healthy again, the “NFC runs through Green Bay”, or whatever Tony Romo said. 

Optimistically, the new coordinators and schemes may be able to get more out of players who didn’t play well last year or who seem to be falling off with age (HHCD, Wilkerson, Matthews, Graham, Cobb, even gulp, Rodgers), while maximizing the potential of their young secondary, receiving depth and RB by committee. But a more skeptical analysis suggests the Packers will need too many things to break just right to be expected to live up to those lofty preseason expectations. 

 

It's interesting when you look at this group.

With Rodgers healthy this is a talented and effective offense even without Nelson. You've got good starters at 4 of the 5 offensive line positions, and one of the guards may still figure out that last spot. If Graham can get going the offense is a different animal. Aaron Rodgers with a good pass catching TE goes from a great QB to the destroyer of worlds. His splits with/without Finley and even in 2016 with/without a productive Cook are pretty eye opening. That vertical threat inside just opens up so much of McCarthy's offense. 

On defense the front 4 is really really good. Daniels and Clark are both second tier guys (third tier with Daniels if you want to make a JJ Watt/Aaron Donald tier) and differentiate him from the Fletcher Cox/Geno Atkins tier, and I don't make that distinction. Matthews and Clay are both in that same grouping when you look at their rush efficiency metrics. The lack of healthy reps is what murders them. Also there's absolutely zero for depth which really keeps our pressure packages grounded.

Martinez is a rock solid piece and I disagree that he's a coverage liability. He's fine. Jake Ryan is the coverage liability of that duo. It will be interesting to see if Oren Burks takes over those dime reps for Martinez, I doubt it.

The secondary will make or break us. King looked like a mediocre #3 as a rookie, and God i hope he grew in the offseason because he's gonna be getting it full in the face. Jaire Alexander will fit in the slot as a rookie, he's as nice a fit there as you're going to see for a kid, but he's still a kid. Tramon vs. House vs. Jackson will be the dog fight, and i'd be lying if i said I was eager to see any of them lining up there come September. 

HHCD is good as the High Safety. This entire defense was done with the Dom Capers/Brett Hundley combo and weren't used to playing garbage time reps. HaHa will bounce back.

Box Safety is another question mark in the secondary. Kentrell Brice for Josh Jones is going to be a clash of stles as well as draft capital. The UDFA 3rd yer guy in Brice is probably in the driver's seat at the moment and he's alright. Jones has the upside but he also looked dreadful any time he was asked to drop next year.  

There's just a lot that can go wrong in that group. Though the potential is seriously sky high. There's a lot of wheels and ball-skills in that group. 

[Krauser]

3 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

You've got good starters at 4 of the 5 offensive line positions

If Bulaga's healthy, that's true. He tore his ACL in early November, the second ACL tear in that knee. He's 29, the same age Loadholt was in 2015 (tore his Achilles in preseason and never played again). He was asked to take a pay cut (reportedly, and refused), which suggests the team isn't confident in him as a long-term option. 

If Bulaga can't play, the options are Kyle Murphy (abused by rookie Carl Lawson in the Bengals game last year to the tune of 3 sacks and 7 hurries), Jason Spriggs (allowed the game and season ending 4th down sack to 37 year old Julius Peppers in the Panthers game where Rodgers tried to make a comeback) and Byron Bell (one of the backup Cowboys tackles last year who allowed 6 sacks to Adrian Clayborn in a single game). Spriggs is probably the best of that group, and the Packers have consistently had success developing OL, but if Bulaga's out the right side of the line is no sure thing. 

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If Graham can get going the offense is a different animal. Aaron Rodgers with a good pass catching TE goes from a great QB to the destroyer of worlds.

Graham turns 32 this year and was ineffective in Seattle in 2017 except as a red zone weapon. He wasn't getting open downfield between the 20s. Rodgers will make great use of him in the red zone but I'm not sure McCarthy can count on Graham to open up the offense. 

Unless Graham turns back the clock and one of the rookie WRs makes an immediate impact, this will be the weakest supporting cast for the Packers pass offense of Rodgers' career. 

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On defense the front 4 is really really good.

The big DL (Clark and Daniels, Wilkerson if he revives his career) are really really good.

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Matthews and Clay are both in that same grouping when you look at their rush efficiency metrics.

Matthews and Perry (yeah?) leave something to be desired as edge rushers, IMO. They're good, but they're not game changers. I'm not sure what rush efficiency metrics you mean but PFF put them at 9.3% (CM) and 8.7% (NP) for pass rush productivity last year, with 41 full-time edge rushers (looking at 4-3 DE and 3-4 OLB who played 50% of snaps) scoring higher than both of them, including relatively unsung players like Sam Acho, Zadarius Smith and Robert Ayers. 

And yes, their chronic recurring injuries are a problem, and their age curves are against them (Matthews is 32, same age Jared Allen was during his 2014 season with the Bears), and there's nothing much in rotational depth behind them (is Fackrell still the 3rd option?). So I think the Packers pass rush is a weakness at this point, or at least, not a strength. 

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The secondary will make or break us...

There's just a lot that can go wrong in that group. Though the potential is seriously sky high.

Agreed, they have a really nice group of young corners, but when was the last time a young corner played really well in GB? They're going to need a lot from at least 2 of King, Alexander and Jackson. Maybe they'll be amazing even this year but until they realize some of their potential, the Packers pass defense will be a major question mark. 

Add those up and there are legitimate concerns about the Packers pass blocking, pass receivers, pass rush, and pass coverage. Some of those questions will no doubt work out fine, but unless everything breaks their way, others won't.

GB does get Aaron Rodgers back, which makes up for a lot, but there might be a lot for him to make up for.

To me, it's a stretch to elevate a team with those question marks as the favorite in an NFC that includes the Eagles, Saints, Rams, Falcons, Panthers and Vikings.