Cheese Curds: Green Bay Packers Updates

[swede700]

3 minutes ago, vike daddy said:

anyone else know who Ragnar Danneskjold is...?

 

 

 

hint: he's a fictional character from a best selling piece of literature. name the book, and his two best friends/partners.

Literature is my absolute worst subject on Jeopardy.  

[Krauser]

2 hours ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

I think you may be missing a few things:

2015 was a year where the offense was hamstrung by skill position injuries- Nelson was lost with the ACL, Cobb was playing through a shoulder injury that never healed, Adams had the high ankle sprain which he should never have played on, Montgomery only played in 6 games, Eddie Lacy sprained both ankles.  The Packers actually didn't have enough WR's left to run a two point conversion at the end of the NFC championship game.

Since 2017 was a short season for Rodgers, the stats are heavily shifted due to the 2015 debacle.

Rodgers isn't young anymore, but I think you are getting your hopes up if you think he is in decline.  His biggest issue right now is propensity to injury with 2 seasons with collarbone injuries, and multiple with lower leg calf injuries that have slowed him down.

Oh, and by the way, last year was the worst OL to start the season by far.  Much worse than this year.

I don't think I'm missing much. I've been following the Packers closely for years and started writing about the drop-off in their pass offense back in 2015. 

The injuries often blamed for the problems in 2015 happened in preseason. Even without Nelson, and with his other receivers limited, Rodgers was as good as always through the first 6 weeks of 2015: YPA 8.2, TD/INT 15/2, PR 115.9.

The season turned after the game in Denver. The Broncos played tight man coverage and the Packers WRs couldn't get open. The injuries might've part of that, but the play design didn't do them any favors -- too many isolation routes, receivers weren't getting schemed open. From the Broncos game through the end of the year, Rodgers' YPA was 5.97. That's incredibly low for a QB as talented as Rodgers, no matter how bad the supporting cast (and the OL was also a disaster by the end of the year) --  basically the same YPA as Hundley last year (5.8), worse than Ponder in 2012. 

2015 Packers didn't make the NFCCG, they lost in the divisional round in Arizona Maybe you're thinking of a 2-pt conversion vs the Falcons the following year?

2016 was better but Rodgers' YPA was still quite low through midseason (6.53 after week 9, comparable to Trevor Siemian last year). He went on a tear at the end of the year (the "run the table" stretch) -- his YPA jumped to 8.34 though the winning streak, and was 7.84 in the playoffs.

2017 Rodgers again was well off his career baseline, with a YPA of 7.04 -- 7.18 if you exclude the Panthers game, taking only passes before the injury. Comparable 2017 QBs for YPA included Bortles and Mariota. 

Rodgers' YPA from 2009-14 was 8.41, and only dropped below 8.0 in one season (7.8 in 2012). Even if you exclude 2015 because of the WR injuries, his 2016-17 YPA is only 7.2. His lowest 3 seasons as a starter in terms of YPA are 2016, 2017 and 2015. 

Rodgers has been very productive despite the generally low-by-his-standards YPA since 2015. He's been able to sustain drives (3rd down YPA is still very good) and score while protecting the ball (TD/INT percentages have been amazing). But it is notable that arguably the best QB in the history of the game is struggling to move the ball on first downs, or play action passes, or on deep throws (though I bet if DPI was included the overall production on those plays would still be excellent). 

The supporting cast has been limited compared to the Packers roster at its best, but he's still mostly had good-to-excellent OL play, and what should have been at least a half-decent receiving corps. I think the quality of his own play is still excellent in general. So it's a bit hard to explain the decline.

I don't think Rodgers' supporting cast will be noticeably better this year. The OL is not much better unless Bulaga is healthy (early reports from camp are promising but it's hard to expect him to be a full go in week one), and may be worse if McCray or whoever plays RG is worse than Evans. The WR corps will be Allison instead of Nelson, which seems like a downgrade. TE could be an upgrade but Graham was slowing down last year, and has a serious injury history at the age of 32, so I'm not sure how good he'll be. 

I'm not saying Rodgers has declined. He can still do a lot with a little, and can obviously still score points even if the per-play efficiency and yardage aren't great, and the Packers can win a lot of games that way. And maybe Joe Philbin can help recreate the successes of the Packers offense at its best around 2010-11. If he does, it will be an interesting glitch in Rodgers' career, that he spent 3 years mostly struggling to move the ball except when he absolutely had to, after 6 years of lighting the league on fire in his prime. 

 

 

[Ragnar Danneskjold]

2 hours ago, Krauser said:

I don't think I'm missing much. I've been following the Packers closely for years and started writing about the drop-off in their pass offense back in 2015. 

The injuries often blamed for the problems in 2015 happened in preseason. Even without Nelson, and with his other receivers limited, Rodgers was as good as always through the first 6 weeks of 2015: YPA 8.2, TD/INT 15/2, PR 115.9.

The season turned after the game in Denver. The Broncos played tight man coverage and the Packers WRs couldn't get open. The injuries might've part of that, but the play design didn't do them any favors -- too many isolation routes, receivers weren't getting schemed open. From the Broncos game through the end of the year, Rodgers' YPA was 5.97. That's incredibly low for a QB as talented as Rodgers, no matter how bad the supporting cast (and the OL was also a disaster by the end of the year) --  basically the same YPA as Hundley last year (5.8), worse than Ponder in 2012. 

2015 Packers didn't make the NFCCG, they lost in the divisional round in Arizona Maybe you're thinking of a 2-pt conversion vs the Falcons the following year?

2016 was better but Rodgers' YPA was still quite low through midseason (6.53 after week 9, comparable to Trevor Siemian last year). He went on a tear at the end of the year (the "run the table" stretch) -- his YPA jumped to 8.34 though the winning streak, and was 7.84 in the playoffs.

2017 Rodgers again was well off his career baseline, with a YPA of 7.04 -- 7.18 if you exclude the Panthers game, taking only passes before the injury. Comparable 2017 QBs for YPA included Bortles and Mariota. 

Rodgers' YPA from 2009-14 was 8.41, and only dropped below 8.0 in one season (7.8 in 2012). Even if you exclude 2015 because of the WR injuries, his 2016-17 YPA is only 7.2. His lowest 3 seasons as a starter in terms of YPA are 2016, 2017 and 2015. 

Rodgers has been very productive despite the generally low-by-his-standards YPA since 2015. He's been able to sustain drives (3rd down YPA is still very good) and score while protecting the ball (TD/INT percentages have been amazing). But it is notable that arguably the best QB in the history of the game is struggling to move the ball on first downs, or play action passes, or on deep throws (though I bet if DPI was included the overall production on those plays would still be excellent). 

The supporting cast has been limited compared to the Packers roster at its best, but he's still mostly had good-to-excellent OL play, and what should have been at least a half-decent receiving corps. I think the quality of his own play is still excellent in general. So it's a bit hard to explain the decline.

I don't think Rodgers' supporting cast will be noticeably better this year. The OL is not much better unless Bulaga is healthy (early reports from camp are promising but it's hard to expect him to be a full go in week one), and may be worse if McCray or whoever plays RG is worse than Evans. The WR corps will be Allison instead of Nelson, which seems like a downgrade. TE could be an upgrade but Graham was slowing down last year, and has a serious injury history at the age of 32, so I'm not sure how good he'll be. 

I'm not saying Rodgers has declined. He can still do a lot with a little, and can obviously still score points even if the per-play efficiency and yardage aren't great, and the Packers can win a lot of games that way. And maybe Joe Philbin can help recreate the successes of the Packers offense at its best around 2010-11. If he does, it will be an interesting glitch in Rodgers' career, that he spent 3 years mostly struggling to move the ball except when he absolutely had to, after 6 years of lighting the league on fire in his prime. 

 

 

We'll see.  You may be right, but I think Rodgers numbers will bounce higher this year.  I think while it can appear to be a worse supporting cast due to a lot of unknown youth, last year's roster was probably worse.

Last year we started the year, like this year, with Bulaga out with injury, and then lost 2 of the remaining 3 viable tackles in the first game, and the last tackle in the 3rd game.  That left us starting the LG at LT, and a backup guard at RT.  The irony of the season was the first game where we had the presumed starting line was the week 6 Minnesota game where Rodgers was injured.  Given the line issues, Rodgers really didn't have time to do much deep, and really did reasonably well given the poor line play.  I actually was surprised he wasn't hurt earlier.

I think the interpretation of injuries in 2015 is open to debate.  I get your point that Nelson's injury occurred in preseason, but more kept coming in as time went on. By mid season we were dependent on James Jones as our top threat, who at his age  and speed would have been a #5 going in to the season.  As I pointed out, by the end of the Arizona playoff game, where they tied the score on the hail Mary, they were down to only two healthy receivers as Janis was injured on the play and was not available for a potential two point conversion.  (I apologize for mis-speaking on the level of the game- didn't sleep much last night.)  The press liked to make it about scheme that year, but truth is the talent wasn't there.

I think it is true that the Packers offense has been in decline for a variety of reasons, though I think they will be stabilized a bit this year.  McCray will probably be a bit better than Evans on the line given McCray's better mobility and his year of experience last year.  The question to start the year is right tackle, but it can't be worse than playing McCray there.

Rodgers has always played best when he has a viable tight end, which is why I believe they went after Graham. The difference in the second half of the 2016 season was Cook coming back from injury, and Rodgers numbers went back up.  I can see the argument that Graham is aging and slowing, but having a solid performer at the position opens up a lot more for Rodgers than Nelson would have on the boundary.  Both Graham and Lewis will be huge upgrades over Richard Rodgers.

There were too many holes to fill this year, so I think the team is not a favorite this year, but I think you will see Rodgers numbers bounce back up.  But, I admit, I could be wrong.

 

Edited July 30, 2018 by Ragnar Danneskjold

[vike daddy]

5 hours ago, vike daddy said:

anyone else know who Ragnar Danneskjold is...?

 

 

 

hint: he's a fictional character from a best selling piece of literature. name the book, and his two best friends/partners.

next hint: who is John Galt?

[vike daddy]

The Packers have had better days than Monday, but they hope the news isn’t as bad as it appears. First, Packers safety Kentrell Brice was carted off with a leg injury. Now, it’s linebacker Jake Ryan, according to multiple reports. Ryan injured his right leg/knee, pounding the ground and yelling.

Ryan, 26, was a fourth-round pick of the Packers in 2015. He is in the final year of his contract. He started 12 games last season, making 81 tackles, a sack and forcing a fumble.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/07/30/jake-ryan-carted-off-from-packers-practice/

[vike daddy]

Michael Cohen✔@Michael_Cohen13

Jake Ryan down on the field grabbing his right knee. He’s screaming in pain. Teammates huddled around him. This looks bad. #Packers

 

NFL Analysis Network@NFLAnalysisNet

Early expectations coming out of Green Bay are that #Packers linebacker Jake Ryan may have a torn ACL. Would end his season and leave GB with even less depth in the middle of their defense. #NFL

 

Ryan Wood✔@ByRyanWood

#Packers ILB Blake Martinez said he spoke with Jake Ryan as soon as practice ended. Described Ryan as “devastated.” Described all the work Ryan put in this offseason. Martinez: “It’s just really tough.”

 

 

[Krauser]

4 hours ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

We'll see.  You may be right, but I think Rodgers numbers will bounce higher this year.  I think while it can appear to be a worse supporting cast due to a lot of unknown youth, last year's roster was probably worse...

All very reasonable points, we'll see how it goes. 

I can see the OL being considerably better if Bulaga recovers by week one and stays healthy. The young WRs may contribute too. I'm not expecting much from Graham aside from possession receiver stuff on 3rd downs and in the red zone. 

Sorry to hear about Jake Ryan. Do you think they'll try Burks in his spot? I was a fan of his from watching highlights pre-draft, was hoping the Vikings might land him on day 3. 

[Spartacus]

12 hours ago, Krauser said:

All very reasonable points, we'll see how it goes. 

I can see the OL being considerably better if Bulaga recovers by week one and stays healthy. The young WRs may contribute too. I'm not expecting much from Graham aside from possession receiver stuff on 3rd downs and in the red zone. 

Sorry to hear about Jake Ryan. Do you think they'll try Burks in his spot? I was a fan of his from watching highlights pre-draft, was hoping the Vikings might land him on day 3. 

Burks is more of a hybrid LB/safety. If he shows something in TC possibly but really him and Jake Ryan couldn't be any more different. It depends what Pettine wants to do. If he values a 2 down thumper we may have to look at the remaining FA ILB otherwise we go with the safety/small LB and take the occasional licks in the run game.

[since72]

17 hours ago, vike daddy said:

next hint: who is John Galt?

Well John Galt is from Atlas Shrugged, so I'm guessing Ragnar Danneskjold is too.  I have no idea who his friends are because I could never get past the first chapter of the book.  Maybe someday.

More on topic - I think the Vikings, Bears, and Lions were running Dungy's Cover 2 defense early in Aaron's career.  He feasted on that defense for breakfast, lunch, and dinner.  Surprised he didn't end up looking like Jon Brower Minnoch (throws in obscure reference for Vike Daddy).  The defenses he faces now are more M2M with press coverage.  

[since72]

17 hours ago, vike daddy said:

Ryan Wood✔@ByRyanWood

#Packers ILB Blake Martinez said he spoke with Jake Ryan as soon as practice ended. Described Ryan as “devastated.” Described all the work Ryan put in this offseason. Martinez: “It’s just really tough.”

This is one thing that really sucks about football.  Wish there was some way to avoid injuries in training camp.

[swede700]

15 minutes ago, since72 said:

Well John Galt is from Atlas Shrugged, so I'm guessing Ragnar Danneskjold is too.  I have no idea who his friends are because I could never get past the first chapter of the book.  Maybe someday.  

1

If so, I've always planned on reading it, because I want to see where some of the political opinions these days come from...I just haven't gotten around to it, because I'm a lazy reader. 

[VikeManDan]

@swede700 formerly disaacs?

Edited July 31, 2018 by VikeManDan

[swede700]

3 minutes ago, VikeManDan said:

@swede700 formerly disaacs?

oh yes!  I didn't even notice that I had been switched over.  

[marshpit23]

1 hour ago, swede700 said:

oh yes!  I didn't even notice that I had been switched over.  

I was wondering why this Swede guy was using disaacs’ avatar. Confused me for a moment lol

[swede700]

6 minutes ago, marshpit23 said:

I was wondering why this Swede guy was using disaacs’ avatar. Confused me for a moment lol

Now it matches the name I use elsewhere in the Social Mediasphere...so if you ever find that name elsewhere, it's me.