Cheese Curds: Green Bay Packers Updates

[Arthur Penske]

15 hours ago, Krauser said:

Believe that's right, back on the old forum. The ForcePlayers metric was adapted/stolen from a FF poster named Waldo, who developed it around 2011 IIRC. 

Yep. Justo.

20 hours ago, Krauser said:

Former FF poster Justis Mosqueda is writing for Optimum Scouting this year and posted this very interesting analysis on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers passing game: http://www.optimumscouting.com/news/aaron-rodgers-and-how-receivers-set-the-ceiling-fo

Basic idea is that Rodgers is uniquely talented at making plays on a shortened field in goal-to-goal situations. But since 2015, the Packers passing game has dropped off considerably outside the opposition's 10 yard line. 

Mosqueda blames the drop-off in the Packers passing game on Rodgers' supporting cast, in particular the decline in the talent of his receivers from 2011 to 2015 and beyond.

He doesn't seem to expect the 2018 team will be much different. He wrote a similar analysis when Jimmy Graham was signed showing that Graham has been an elite red zone target and a mediocre target elsewhere on the field, matching the Packers passing game as average outside the red zone and elite within it: http://settingedge.com/jimmy-graham-will-help-the-packers-become-more-of-who-they-already-are

Justis knows some football but he's also has some pretty strong opinions/predictions that don't always makes sense to me. For example, Dean Lowry was going to be baby Watt based on his test numbers and he proclaims the draft only matters through round 4. I think Diggs and Theilen are enough to show that ones wrong.

[Krauser]

Aaron Rodgers not happy with the effort from the younger WRs today: 

Packers hoping three day-3 drafted rookies -- J'Mon Moore, Equanimeous St Brown and Marquez Valdes-Scantling -- can add some firepower to their WR depth chart, which gets thin quickly after Adams and Cobb.

Geronimo Allison is probably the starting WR3, taking Jordy Nelson's role from last year.

Depth options from prior years like Trevor Davis are unlikely to contribute beyond special teams (Davis is a good punt returner).

Wildcard is Jake Kumerow -- 26 year old with good size and quickness, former 2015 UDFA from a Div III school in Wisconsin, and cousin to the Bosa brothers. Kumerow spent 3 years on various practice squads but has yet to dress for a single NFL game.  He's reportedly been a favorite target of Rodgers' in camp so far and has been rotating in with the starters at times. 

Edited August 7, 2018 by Krauser

[vike daddy]

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers called out his team’s young receivers on Tuesday, exempting three of them (DeAngelo Yancey, Geronimo Allison, and Jake Kumerow) from public shaming. The team may not entirely agree.

Trevor Davis, who wasn’t on Rodgers’ short list of non-“piss poor” receivers, is listed as a second-string receiver on the team’s initial depth chart, along with Allison. The starters are, obviously, veterans Randall Cobb and Davante Adams.Yancey and Kumerow appear with the cluster of third stringers, along with J'Mon Moore, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Adonis Jennings, Equanimeous St. Brown, and Kyle Lewis.

As Peter King of NBC’s Football Morning in America suggested during Wednesday’s PFT Live, Rodgers’ remarks may have guaranteed the release of three of the young receivers. Ultimately, those that make the roster will need to be ready to step up when their number is called or they’ll hear it from Rodgers, privately or publicly.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/08/08/trevor-davis-geronimo-allison-occupy-key-spots-on-packers-receiver-depth-chart/

[vike daddy]

Most teams play their starting quarterback in the third preseason game, using it as a dress rehearsal. But the Packers are on the road for their final two preseason games, playing at Oakland and at Kansas City. Because of that, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers expects to play Thursday night at Lambeau Field against the Steelers, Tom Silverstein of Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. Rodgers said he’s “eager” to play at home and is less likely to play in the two road games to close out the preseason.

Rodgers:  “I think I’ll probably play this week. I’d like to in front of our fans. It would be nice to get out there, back on Lambeau. When I came back from my injury, I was on the road, so I haven’t played at home for a long time.”

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/08/13/aaron-rodgers-expects-to-play-thursday/

[swede700]

[vike daddy]

Khalil Mack keeps holding out of Raiders camp. He didn't play Friday night against the Lions, or in their two days of joint practices. He doesn't want to until he gets a new deal. With Oakland reluctant to give the superstar defensive end the deal he wants, trade discussions are likely to start involving Mack. Plenty of teams could use a young and healthy edge rusher, and the Lions are certainly in that camp.

Oddsmaker company OddsShark has a betting line on what team Mack plays for in October. It has a team other than the Raiders in the top spot. It's the Green Bay Packers. Green Bay is a potential suitor for a number of reasons. It needs a pass rush after spending so much of the offseason collecting cornerbacks instead. It has resources, such as two first-round picks next season that it got to with a draft-day trade down with the Saints. And general manager Brian Gutekunst is close with Raiders general manager Reggie McKenzie.

https://www.mlive.com/lions/index.ssf/2018/08/khalil_mack_trade_odds_are_out.html

[RpMc]

I personally don’t see the Pack shelling out the assets it would take to snag Mack... maybe that’s just wishful thinking though. 

[vike daddy]

Just now, RpMc said:

I personally don’t see the Pack shelling out the assets it would take to snag Mack... maybe that’s just wishful thinking though. 

he wouldn't be cheap either, salary wise.

[JBURGE]

Just now, vike daddy said:

he wouldn't be cheap either, salary wise.

Luckily we had a couple weak drafts and really only have HHCD to sign to a larger deal next year. Clay and Cobb are $25m in 2018 likely coming off the books. 

I don't see it happening, but cap wouldn't hold us back from making it happen

[swede700]

15 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

Luckily we had a couple weak drafts and really only have HHCD to sign to a larger deal next year. Clay and Cobb are $25m in 2018 likely coming off the books. 

I don't see it happening, but cap wouldn't hold us back from making it happen

Agreed.  But, the only questions are about how much more they're going to pay Aaron (which will likely be at least $10M more than what they're currently paying him) and then you got Mike Daniels coming up in 2020 (depending upon whether they decide to extend him then, considering he'll be 31).  They can certainly afford him if they want him, but with the thin depth they already have...with not a lot of young players on the rise, it depends upon whether they want to use that draft capital in order to obtain him.  

Edited August 14, 2018 by swede700

[JBURGE]

3 minutes ago, swede700 said:

Agreed.  But, the only questions are about how much more they're going to pay Aaron (which will likely be at least $10M more than what they're currently paying him) and then you got Mike Daniels coming up in 2020 (depending upon whether they decide to extend him then, considering he'll be 31).  They can certainly afford him if they want him, but with the thin depth they already have...with not a lot of young players on the rise, it depends upon whether they want to use that draft capital in order to obtain him.  

Of course. Can't be competitive with two "max" players in Rodgers and Mack without drafting well and signing cheap veteran talent to fill out the roster. At least I would have more confidence in that with Gute.

[Krauser]

Number one thing the Packers are lacking is elite players on defense. They haven’t had a game changing pass rusher since Matthews in his prime.

They can afford to give up both 1st round picks for Mack (they’ll need to draft an edge rusher in the 1st round next year anyway, and won’t have a chance to get one nearly as good as Mack if their pick and the Saints pick are both in the teens or lower), and they can easily afford to pay him (series of poor drafts on defense from the mid 2010s means they only have a few guys in line for long term extensions — HHCD, and eventually Clark and Martinez — and even those successes are unlikely to command top dollar). 

Mack is prime age, healthy and an elite talent. If he ends up in Green Bay, that’ll be very bad news for the Vikings. 

[Uncle Buck]

37 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

Luckily we had a couple weak drafts and really only have HHCD to sign to a larger deal next year. Clay and Cobb are $25m in 2018 likely coming off the books. 

I don't see it happening, but cap wouldn't hold us back from making it happen

Back in the TT era we could all scoff at even mentioning the possibility.  With the new GM, you never know what he could do.  It's possible, and it's a move I'd hate to see them make because it would make the Packers a lot better on defense.

[Uncle Buck]

16 hours ago, vike daddy said:

Most teams play their starting quarterback in the third preseason game, using it as a dress rehearsal. But the Packers are on the road for their final two preseason games, playing at Oakland and at Kansas City. Because of that, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers expects to play Thursday night at Lambeau Field against the Steelers, Tom Silverstein of Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. Rodgers said he’s “eager” to play at home and is less likely to play in the two road games to close out the preseason.

Rodgers:  “I think I’ll probably play this week. I’d like to in front of our fans. It would be nice to get out there, back on Lambeau. When I came back from my injury, I was on the road, so I haven’t played at home for a long time.”

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/08/13/aaron-rodgers-expects-to-play-thursday/

For years the Packers enjoyed the luxury of having the league's all-time iron man at the QB position.  It has to be tough now that this guy is suiting up:

(Glass Joe from Mike Tyson's Punch Out)

[Arthur Penske]

On 8/14/2018 at 9:59 AM, Krauser said:

Number one thing the Packers are lacking is elite players on defense. They haven’t had a game changing pass rusher since Matthews in his prime.

They can afford to give up both 1st round picks for Mack (they’ll need to draft an edge rusher in the 1st round next year anyway, and won’t have a chance to get one nearly as good as Mack if their pick and the Saints pick are both in the teens or lower), and they can easily afford to pay him (series of poor drafts on defense from the mid 2010s means they only have a few guys in line for long term extensions — HHCD, and eventually Clark and Martinez — and even those successes are unlikely to command top dollar). 

Mack is prime age, healthy and an elite talent. If he ends up in Green Bay, that’ll be very bad news for the Vikings. 

Clark may not get Donald/Suh money a few years from now but he sure as heck isn't going to be cheap either. Most are expecting a big time ascending player there.