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Cheese Curds: Green Bay Packers Updates

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1 minute ago, Vikes_Bolts1228 said:

Whatever happens with McCarthy/Rodgers.....just give me 3-4 years of a 6-10.....5-11 Green Bay team. 

Just a handful of down seasons. That's all I ask.

How about a decade of down seasons like the 80s?

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1 hour ago, swede700 said:

I personally think they should have got rid of McCarthy about 3-4 years ago because, despite their record from 2014-16, they have been riding Rodgers' arm for far too long (I'd almost call it the Dan Marino method) and haven't given him enough support via the running game or defense.  While I'm certain that, should they choose to fire McCarthy, they will hire an offensive-minded coach, I'd like another defensive-minded coach in this division to go with Zimmer and Patricia...and bring back the Black and Blue division.  But, that's probably only me.  I'd like to see them hire a guy like Fangio (stealing him from the Bears) or give Gus Bradley another shot (as I'm not confident that he had the right support in Jacksonville). 

With that said, I tend to agree with Cear, I was never all that impressed with McCarthy's management style of the team.  I think he has been okay (and it's hard to argue with the results), but he's never struck me as an elite head coach.

You probably know better than I do, but has Rodgers ever been willing to restructure his contracts so that the team could get better players around him?  I don't ever remember him doing that...but, I could be wrong.

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13 minutes ago, Virginia Viking said:

You probably know better than I do, but has Rodgers ever been willing to restructure his contracts so that the team could get better players around him?  I don't ever remember him doing that...but, I could be wrong.

I don't think Ted Thompson ever really went after anyone that would have required that. Maybe he could have restructured to keep someone. 

The Packers have generally drafted wrs a year or 2 before they really needed to but this year they are depending on a lot of new guys and have to build trust and chemistry yet

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1 hour ago, Vikes_Bolts1228 said:

Whatever happens with McCarthy/Rodgers.....just give me 3-4 years of a 6-10.....5-11 Green Bay team. 

Just a handful of down seasons. That's all I ask.

They've had their time with 2 HoF QBs for the better part of 20+ years. They can go back to suffering for a while.

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33 minutes ago, Virginia Viking said:

You probably know better than I do, but has Rodgers ever been willing to restructure his contracts so that the team could get better players around him?  I don't ever remember him doing that...but, I could be wrong.

I don't think so given the recent deal he just signed.

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25 minutes ago, VikeManDan said:

I don't think so given the recent deal he just signed.

He hasn't needed to restructure, considering they never signed any FAs.  And even then, last year was the first year he even had a cap hit over $20M a year.  They had plenty of money to bring players in, if they had wanted to do so.

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The crazy thing is the Packers are second most efficient Rush Offense according to Football Outsiders, but they're something like 29th in the league in attempts. They are currently better at running the ball than throwing, but McCarthy refuses to lean on his team's strength.

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Rodgers isn’t a has been. The comparison to later years Adrian Peterson is wrong — Rodgers’ abilities haven’t declined. The 3 best throws he makes in any given game are as good or better than anyone’s, basically every week. His ceiling is still the best in the league, or very close to it.

The problem with Rodgers is his unwillingness and/or inability to work within the structure of the offense and play design: he wants to run around and chuck 60 yard rainbows instead of taking what the defense gives him and keeping the offense on schedule. He wants to be the hero, he’s looking for a magic moment where he can show off and his genius will be appreciated. He avoids simple checkdowns, doesn’t like to throw into tight windows early in the play, and is always looking to extend the play by leaving the pocket in order to scramble or throw on the run.

This is not the typical problem of physical skills declining with age, he’s just seemingly lost interest in doing the basic stuff, over and over. 

Rodgers probably started to develop the Hero complex in 2013, when he came back from injury to beat the Bears and win the division with a last second 4th down dagger. Then in the 2014 playoff run, he was praised to the skies for playing with a mild leg injury that would cause him to limp between plays but not during them. That team was easily good enough to go to or win the Super Bowl, but Rodgers got almost all of the credit, won MVP. By 2015, the team around him started to decline (and suffered several key injuries, particularly losing Nelson for the year) and he resorted almost exclusively to Hero Ball to win: they only made the playoffs that year because of the Hail Mary in the Lions game, and they forced OT in the wild card game in Arizona after Rodgers produced 90 yards of offense on 2 throws in the last 10 seconds. 2016 again, Rodgers got all the credit for Run The Table and R-E-L-A-X, and they went through to the NFCCG. 2017 wasn’t as good as the W-L record looked, but the team was still 4-1 and leading the division when he got hurt in the Vikings game.

But all those many successes have come at a cost: Rodgers since 2015 is no longer a hyper-efficient QB. His YPA and other efficiency metrics have nosedived. He and the team have come to rely on 4th quarter comebacks almost entirely — they’ve only led by 14+ points in 3 games in 2017-18 (all at home, facing Glennon, Allen and Osweiler), and all but 4 of their wins in that span have required a last minute game winning or tying drive (the same 3 games plus the 2017 season opener against Seattle). They’ve basically never been in a comfortable position leading a good team in that span. Rodgers has continue to produce magic moments: comebacks to tie the Bengals and beat the Cowboys in 2017, to beat the Bears and the Niners in 2018, but the team’s performance aside from those flashes of greatness has been thoroughly mediocre. 

In 2015 (especially) through 2017, I think it’s fair to say that the Packers had fallen off so far as a team that Rodgers more or less had to pull rabbits out of hats in order to win games. But the 2018 team is noticeably more talented (at least with everyone healthy). In particular, Adams has continued to grow and is now one of the best WRs in the league, and Aaron Jones is producing at a very high level. With decent OL play, some contributions from rookie WRs (who’ve made some mistakes but also made some big plays) and Graham being half-decent as a pass catching TE, they should be set up this year as a top 5 or so offense in the league. 

They are producing reasonably well in terms of yards and points, and Rodgers is certainly limiting turnovers, but somehow something is still missing. Some of that does boil down to poor situational coaching from McCarthy (who should’ve gambled on 4th and 2 in Seattle, and probably doesn’t call enough run plays even if the run/pass balance is skewed by Rodgers checking in and out of plays at the line), and the supporting cast isn’t amazing or anything even if it’s better than last year and very good overall.

But a big, big part of the problem is that Aaron Rodgers apparently doesn’t want to do his job as the QB in a way that makes the offense work efficiently as a whole, choosing too often to maximize his individual heroics at the expense of the team. There are of course still some huge upsides to having Rodgers as the QB: witness the 50+ yard TDs and the 70+ yard drives that only somehow take 37 seconds in 2 minute situations, to say nothing of the free plays from 12 men on the field penalties. But the fact is that he’s taking way too many sacks holding the ball on 3rd downs, and he’s ignoring open checkdowns in favor of throwing low percentage deep balls, and he’s wasting timeouts by making endless checks at the line of scrimmage and extending his cadence to the last second of the play clock.

Rodgers needs to play better — get back to basics and play simple football. If he can do that, his brilliant moments can augment what should otherwise be a very good offence into an elite unit.

Until he does, he’s holding them back.

Edited by Krauser

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9 minutes ago, Krauser said:

But a big, big part of the problem is that Aaron Rodgers...

Yep, thanks for nailing down the reason he is a has-been.

Good for him. It is a lot better than the never-was QBs the Vikings have trotted out there for most of the last 20 years.

Perhaps a new coach can go into Green Bay and earn Rodgers respect. This may result in a career resurrection for Aaron. Until then, we all ought to thank the lucky stars that Mike McCarthy is still coaching the Packers and Rodgers is a has-been elite QB instead of the dominant force he once was.

 

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48 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

Yep, thanks for nailing down the reason he is a has-been.

A “has-been”:

AA8-FA6-AF-A19-F-4383-B8-E9-2700646-EEFA

C90-F4180-C9-C6-41-CF-983-F-E37-BC051148

...saying Rodgers needs to be more decisive earlier in the down and settle for open receivers on shorter patterns doesn’t mean he’s past his prime or declining. 

Just like saying that Adrian Peterson in 2012 wasn’t a reliable pass blocker and contributed little as a receiver, or that Xavier Rhodes in 2017 took too many penalties and wasn’t great covering shifty receivers in the slot — these are All Pro caliber players who have some strengths and weaknesses to their games.

In Rodgers case, his strengths are in a sense creating his weaknesses. If he gets his head straight, and/or gets matched with a more creative coach, he will again be an elite QB. Imagine Rodgers on the Rams with McVay’s system — he’d put up 60 passing TDs a year.

I’m afraid your take that he’s washed up is wishful thinking.

 

Edited by Krauser

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1 hour ago, Krauser said:

Rodgers isn’t a has been. The comparison to later years Adrian Peterson is wrong — Rodgers’ abilities haven’t declined. The 3 best throws he makes in any given game are as good or better than anyone’s, basically every week. His ceiling is still the best in the league, or very close to it.

The problem with Rodgers is his unwillingness and/or inability to work within the structure of the offense and play design: he wants to run around and chuck 60 yard rainbows instead of taking what the defense gives him and keeping the offense on schedule. He wants to be the hero, he’s looking for a magic moment where he can show off and his genius will be appreciated. He avoids simple checkdowns, doesn’t like to throw into tight windows early in the play, and is always looking to extend the play by leaving the pocket in order to scramble or throw on the run.

 

As a Packer fan, I have to say- excellent analysis.

I will ask you, since the Packer board is busy with the full throated attack on McCarthy, and can't rationally discuss Rodgers, what do you think is going on with his throwing mechanics?  Have you watched enough to have an opinion?

Thursday night, he dumped the last 3rd and 2 into the dirt, missing a wide open receiver for the first down.  Looked like a ball i would throw now in my 60's.  He said post game that it "stuck" in his hand.   But as is typical this season, he through it off the back foot, 3/4 arm.  

Earlier on the first drive of the second half, on 3rd and 8ish Devante Adams had beaten his man on the go route, and Rodgers did the same thing- off the back foot, 3/4 arm flip like throw that fell like 3 yards behind the play.

When I have gone back and looked at the 2010 super bowl run, he never would throw off the back foot and would drive the ball down field.  Now he rarely transfers his weight and has much less velocity.  I have never seen him under throw so many balls, and he avoids windows he used to routinely throw to.

Left knee injury keeps him from transferring weight?  He says the knee felt fine.  Bad habit?  Arrogance that makes him think he is just as good with bad footwork?  

Curious what you think.

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26 minutes ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

As a Packer fan, I have to say- excellent analysis.

I will ask you, since the Packer board is busy with the full throated attack on McCarthy, and can't rationally discuss Rodgers, what do you think is going on with his throwing mechanics?  Have you watched enough to have an opinion?

Thursday night, he dumped the last 3rd and 2 into the dirt, missing a wide open receiver for the first down.  Looked like a ball i would throw now in my 60's.  He said post game that it "stuck" in his hand.   But as is typical this season, he through it off the back foot, 3/4 arm.  

Earlier on the first drive of the second half, on 3rd and 8ish Devante Adams had beaten his man on the go route, and Rodgers did the same thing- off the back foot, 3/4 arm flip like throw that fell like 3 yards behind the play.

When I have gone back and looked at the 2010 super bowl run, he never would throw off the back foot and would drive the ball down field.  Now he rarely transfers his weight and has much less velocity.  I have never seen him under throw so many balls, and he avoids windows he used to routinely throw to.

Left knee injury keeps him from transferring weight?  He says the knee felt fine.  Bad habit?  Arrogance that makes him think he is just as good with bad footwork?  

Curious what you think.

In real time, I thought the 3rd and 2 throw was tipped at the line but maybe not. A number of his intermediate to deep throws have been off target this year, but that was a weirdly inaccurate short throw for him. 

IIRC Rodgers was flicking throws from unconventional platforms and arm angles as early as the 2014 playoffs. It's been his regular habit at least since 2015. The inconsistent mechanics make it much harder for him to be reliably accurate, even though he makes a near-impossible throw look effortless at least once a game (vs the Seahawks, Tonyan's TD and the 50+ yarder to Adams in the 4th quarter). 

I don't know why he has to make everything so hard on himself. It seems he's so used to doing amazing things that he can't be bothered to do the easy stuff anymore. Like a musician who only wants to play freeform solos -- no rhythm parts, not even willing to repeat the hook. It's impressive, and in a way it's amazing, but the outcomes aren't actually as good as they would be if he was willing to keep it simple and just play football as part of the team. 

Bottom line I think it's a bad habit that he's able to get away with most of the time, but not quite often enough. Some of that may come from arrogance, or boredom, or a sense that he needs to carry the team.

Weird but true, a noticeably less talented but more conventional QB (like say, Kirk Cousins) would've done better for GB for most of the Seahawks game, though of course someone like Cousins wouldn't have been able to come up with the deep TD to Tonyan. For one thing, if Cousins is the QB, the Packers probably keep handing the ball to Jones in the 2nd half. 

 

Edited by Krauser

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2 minutes ago, Krauser said:

In real time, I thought the 3rd and 2 throw was tipped at the line but maybe not. A number of his intermediate to deep throws have been off target this year, but that was a weirdly inaccurate short throw for him. 

IIRC Rodgers was flicking throws from unconventional platforms and arm angles as early as the 2014 playoffs. It's been his regular habit at least since 2015. The inconsistent mechanics make it much harder for him to be reliably accurate, even though he makes a near-impossible throw look effortless at least once a game (vs the Seahawks, Tonyan's TD and the 50+ yarder to Adams in the 4th quarter). 

I don't know why he has to make everything so hard on himself. It seems he's so used to doing amazing things that he can't be bothered to do the easy stuff anymore. Like a musician who only wants to play freeform solos -- no rhythm parts, not even willing to repeat the hook. It's impressive, and in a way it's amazing, but the outcomes aren't actually as good as they would be if he was willing to keep it simple and just play football as part of the team. 

Bottom line I think it's a bad habit that he's able to get away with most of the time, but not quite often enough. Some of that may come from arrogance, or boredom, or a sense that he needs to carry the team.

Weird but true, a noticeably less talented but more conventional QB (like say, Kirk Cousins) would've done better for GB for most of the Seahawks game, though of course someone like Cousins wouldn't have been able to come up with the deep TD to Tonyan. 

 

Sounds about right, thanks.

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On 11/16/2018 at 12:42 AM, Krauser said:

Rodgers made a handful of ridiculously good throws tonight. But he also killed several drives by missing open receivers, throwing the ball away and taking sacks trying to scramble. 

His body language is terrible, this is Cutler territory: 

Looks frustrated, tired and sad.

Packers have to fix this somehow, Rodgers' deal runs through 2023.

Cutler just had resting jerk face. He didn't ever act like that on the field from what I remember.

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