Cheese Curds: Green Bay Packers Updates

[swede700]

I read @Krauser's post above after I posted my comments on ESPN's "odds" on winning the division...it's good to see that I'm not the only one who can look at them objectively (even though I'm sure that there are Green and Gold fans who think that's not possible).  I certainly respect Aaron Rodgers' game, even if I don't like him on a personal level, but even he can't save that sinking ship.  I view this era as being very similar to the end of Favre's run in GB...maybe they've got one last run in them over the next few years ala 2007, but I'm not sure that Rodgers is going to be able to carry them for much longer.

[swede700]

Quote

Especially when it comes to being obsessed with "Game of Thrones."
Aaron Rodgers, the star quarterback for the Green Bay Packers, is the latest celeb to have popped up with a cameo on the wildly popular HBO series.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/13/entertainment/aaron-rodgers-game-thrones/index.html

[TENINCH]

24 minutes ago, swede700 said:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/13/entertainment/aaron-rodgers-game-thrones/index.html

Only saw the first season but I did watch him get killed in a short clip last night. 

[swede700]

5 minutes ago, TENINCH said:

Only saw the first season but I did watch him get killed in a short clip last night. 

I've never watched a single episode, but I've picked up things by osmosis of hearing people talk about it.    

[TENINCH]

Just now, swede700 said:

I've never watched a single episode, but I've picked up things by osmosis of hearing people talk about it.    

I don't understand the appeal of the show. You have an author/writer that seems to write the story only so that it pisses his audience off.

[The_Dude]

The story, A Song of Fire & Ice, is extraordinary. The main character deaths are not to piss off the audience, but are driven by the characters & their decisions (good or bad). The show was awesome for 4 seasons, but the show runners are awful without the source material. Sorry, I'm a GoT snob. 

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, swede700 said:

I read @Krauser's post above after I posted my comments on ESPN's "odds" on winning the division...it's good to see that I'm not the only one who can look at them objectively (even though I'm sure that there are Green and Gold fans who think that's not possible).  I certainly respect Aaron Rodgers' game, even if I don't like him on a personal level, but even he can't save that sinking ship.  I view this era as being very similar to the end of Favre's run in GB...maybe they've got one last run in them over the next few years ala 2007, but I'm not sure that Rodgers is going to be able to carry them for much longer.

How many years did Peyton Manning make the Colts look a LOT better than they were?  Rodgers is more talented than Peyton Manning.

[swede700]

27 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

How many years did Peyton Manning make the Colts look a LOT better than they were?  Rodgers is more talented than Peyton Manning.

I have no doubt that Aaron Rodgers is more talented than Peyton Manning.  That's certainly clear. 

But what I don't have knowledge of is whether Rodgers works nearly as hard as Peyton Manning did, especially at getting himself on the same page with his wide receivers.  Manning was notorious at getting himself and his wide receivers together during the offseason working together without the coaching staff and working on timing and routes.  Aaron Rodgers, as far as I am aware, doesn't do that.  In fact, I'm not even sure he even talks to them much during the offseason.  Now, I certainly don't know that, and if he does do that, that would certainly make my opinion a little different.   

[CWood21]

On 5/11/2019 at 3:26 PM, Krauser said:

The top part of their draft was again devoted to the defense. Since 2012, they've exclusively drafted DL and DBs in the first round, all of them very good to superb athletes, but several of them with questions about their transition to the NFL.

They again drafted an athletic DB early. Savage is the 9th DB they've taken in the top 2 rounds since 2012, 14 DBs in total taken in the last 8 drafts. No Packers DB has earned a second contract in Green Bay since Morgan Burnett (drafted in 2010), though several have found more success after moving on: Hayward with the Chargers, Hyde in Buffalo, Randall moving back to safety in Cleveland, and now Clinton-Dix will have a chance to revive his career with the Bears. 

That's clearly a philosophical thing.  Nothing wrong with that.  I mean, if you're content with your team investing in "less valuable" positions, we're probably on different wavelengths.  I'm clearly a proponent of positional value, and I'm assuming you're not.  But the whole argument about not taking a position because you missed before is AWFUL logic.  Should the Cleveland Browns passed on Baker Mayfield because of how many times they whiffed at QB before?  No.  I don't even want to fathom how many games Saquon Barkley or Bradley Chubb would have helped the Browns win.  I think it's pretty damn safe to say the Browns wouldn't trade Baker for anyone in the 2018 draft.  And when you point out the players, your three biggest examples are PRIME examples of why you can't just try and pin "busts" on the FO.  The blame with those 3 probably lies more with the coaching staff than the FO personnel who are evaluating it.  Casey Hayward STRUGGLED badly when he was asked to play boundary corner, and the Packers let him walk.  Go watch his game against Denver from a few years ago.  Demaryius Thomas roasted him.  He was a damn good slot corner with some injury concerns.  Micah Hyde was forced to being the CB/S hybrid since he had Morgan Burnett and HHCD ahead of him.  You weren't benching either of them for Hyde.  Randall is an interesting one since all the tape showed him at safety at Arizona State, but the Packers NEEDED a CB badly.  That's a square peg in a round hole situation.  Nothing more.  HHCD was good early in his career, and then stopped showing up to play.  It's really unexplainable.  So let's not pretend like the Packers have misevaluated.  They just didn't put the players in a position to succeed, which falls on the coaching staff.

On 5/11/2019 at 3:26 PM, Krauser said:

They again spent nothing at the top of the draft on receiving weapons for Rodgers. The Packers haven't picked a WR in the top 100 since Ty Montgomery late in the 3rd round in 2015. Davante Adams (2nd round 2014) is great but beyond that, Rodgers' targets this year will be Jimmy Graham (who's washed), Geronimo Allison, the trio of second-year day-three picks at WR from last year (Valdes-Scantling, St Brown and Moore) and 3rd round rookie TE Jace Sternberger. Two of the young WRs did put up decent yardage totals as rookies last year, but their stats were inflated by a high number of team attempts and little other competition for targets (with Cobb washed up and Allison hurt) -- by PFF grades and advanced stats like YPRR, they were mediocre even compared to the other rookies around the league last year. 

Other than draft status, what separates MVS from say Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, DJ Moore, and Courtland Sutton?  Nothing.  They were all very productive as rookie WRs.  Does that means MVS is a guaranteed stud?  No, but the notion that some have us believing that the Packers need to bury him on the depth chart is mind boggling.  I'm not sure why people are getting so bogged down on the draft status with our WRs.  Is DK Metcalf a clearly better WR than say MVS or ESB?  No.  This year's WR class had a LOT of good, but no great WRs.  There was no Larry Fitzgerald or Antonio Brown.  Hell, I'm not even sure there are any Davante Adams or Adam Thielen in this year's class.  You're going to have a LOT of #2/#3 WRs in this year's class.  That's not an upgrade, especially when you can probably get similar value later in the draft.  Which WR do you want to take over Jenkins?  The WR class as a whole got overrated quick.  We had 28 WRs drafted this year.  We had 34 drafted last year and the year before.  It was a decent WR class, but nothing great.  And no, their numbers weren't inflated because of the competition.  On a target per game basis, this is how it broke down.

Davante Adams: 11.3 targets/game
Jimmy Graham: 5.6 targets/game
MVS: 4.6 targets/game
ESB: 3 targets/game
Cobb: 6.8 targets/game

That stat indicates otherwise.  MVS had as many targets because he's one of the few WRs who stayed healthy.  If Randall Cobb had played in all 16 games, that would have extrapolated to 108 targets which would have been good for 2nd on the Packers and T-27th in the NFL.  Randall Cobb was the secondary target when he was on the field.  In the games where Cobb and MVS were on the field, MVS had 14 receptions on 32 targets (3.6 targets per game).  Cobb had 38 receptions on 61 targets (6.8 targets per game).  In the games without Cobb, he had 24 receptions on 41 targets I believe.  Given Aaron Rodgers' well documented history of not throwing to rookie WRs, it's pretty safe to say that MVS didn't benefit from the situation.  If anything, he was probably actually hindered by it.

On 5/11/2019 at 3:26 PM, Krauser said:

They again will be relying on Bakhtiari, Bulaga and Linsley (two 28 year-olds and a 30 year old, Bulaga) to hold their OL together. Bakhtiari and Linsely have been durable, while Bulaga has struggled with injuries, though he did play most of last year. The depth at tackle is suspect, as Spriggs has failed to impress when given a chance as a starter. Spriggs and Bulaga are both in the final years of their contracts, and there's no clear plan for a starter at RT next year beyond them.

The IOL beyond Linsley was pretty bad last year, and to that group they added only a mediocre UFA (Billy Turner, with a career best PFF grade of 64, got $28M/4) and 2nd round rookie Elgton Jenkins. It'll be interesting to see if Jenkins lives up to expectations, he was very good in college, a PFF favourite, and seems to project perfectly  to their scheme. The Packers of course have had incredible success developing homegrown mid-round pick OL over the last 10 years. But they lost their long-time OL coach, James Campen, with the staff turnover this year, and their last successfully developed OL draft pick was Linsley in 2014.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding you, but it seems like you're "penalizing" the Packers for not having an All Pro on the bench.  Jason Spriggs may not be a stud, but he's a top 64 OT in the NFL.  They've got 3 guys (Lane Taylor, Billy Turner, and Elgton Jenkins) competing for 2 spots, so it seems that the IOL should be considerably better than last year.  Obviously, it's not Lang/Sitton combination, but then again most teams don't have a pair of elite guards.  The OL is fine.  The loss of Campen is legitimate, and probably the only concern I have with the OL.  But talent isn't a concern.

On 5/11/2019 at 3:26 PM, Krauser said:

They again are building their front 7 around power rushing edge rushers with little bend. Rashan Gary is a freak but as an athlete and as a pass rusher he's very much along the same lines as Nick Perry and to a lesser extent Datone Jones. The UFA pass rushers they signed, Preston Smith and Za'Darius Smith, are also in that model -- all of them 270-280 pounds and playing more with power than agility. Za'Darius is less of an athlete that the rest but he can win as a pass rusher with hustle and hand technique. Clay Matthews in his prime was a terror coming off the edge, turning the corner -- they've never replaced that. 

Za'Darius Smith's contract also risks repeating one of their mistakes from recent years -- paying Nick Perry as a top level pass rusher after a career performance in a contract year. Smith's sack total, pressures total, and PFF grades were all considerably better in 2018 than in previous years, much as Perry's were in his contract year of 2016. And he got paid: $66M/4, with cap hits of $17M in 2020 and $20M in 2021 and 2022. Perry had a similarly top end deal ($60M/5 signed heading into 2017) and ended up being released after 2 years, with a dead cap hit of $11M. 

Would you rather have guys who can fit in the defensive scheme or guys who might be marginally more talented but don't fit in the defense?  Mike Pettine clearly has a preferred body type, and given that the Packers had the opportunity to draft Brian Burns at 12 but opted for Rashan Gary tells you that it's not fluid.  They want guys who can provide pressure, but not lose the edge or contain.  Sure, they might not be that sexy double-digit sack player, but they're consistently getting pressure.  Za'Darius Smith and Preston Smith were among the league leaders in pressures, which is a SIGNIFICANTLY more reliable stat than sacks are.  How much money do you think Preston Smith makes if had a 10+ sacks last year?  He probably gets double that.  Sacks are byproduct of situation, similar to the way TD receptions are.  Only time will tell if these won't work out, but it's not going to be because their sack totals this past year were above average.

On 5/11/2019 at 3:26 PM, Krauser said:

Behind the big, strong DL they again will have a limited group of LBs. Blake Martinez is good coming downhill, and makes a lot of tackles when Clark, Daniels and company keep him clean. He improved considerably in coverage last year, after that being a liability earlier in his career. Next to Martinez, they don't have a clear 2nd choice at LB, with the most likely candidates being Oren Burks (who struggled as a rookie) and S/LB Josh Jones (who struggled badly as a safety and looked a little better in the box). 

Unless we're talking about truly elite off-ball LBs, their play is always going to be dictated by the big guys in front of him.  Blake Martinez is proof of that.  IF the DL is doing their job, they're keeping him clean and able to make plays.  If they don't, they struggle.  I'd rather invest more in the DL than ILB.

On 5/11/2019 at 3:26 PM, Krauser said:

Beyond that, the big question will be whether the change in coaching and scheme will revive Rodgers' career. The numbers I posted above show a dramatic decline in his production dating back to 2015. I think some part of that could fairly be blamed on McCarthy, but there has also been a significant change in Rodgers' playing style, all too often playing out of structure trying to create magical moments (to be fair, often successfully).

I still think the decline in the Packers supporting cast is a big, big part of the story, which has been relatively underrecognized. And I'm not convinced they'll be much better this year, unless Adams stays healthy, one of the 2nd year WRs develops, and Sternberger has a big rookie year. 

Rodgers still has the ability to win games more or less by himself, as he showed again last year. But without 3 miracle comebacks -- 21 points in the 4Q vs Chicago trailing 20-3, 18 points in the 4Q @ NYJ to tie after trailing 35-20 then a TD in OT to win, and 10 points in the last 2 minutes to beat the Niners 33-30 -- the Packers record last year would've been 3-12-1. 

The Packers were 7th in offensive DVOA.  They're going to be just fine as long as Aaron Rodgers is at the helm.  And that was with Aaron Rodgers pretty much publicly feuding with Mike McCarthy.

Close wins/losses tends to be a better indicator of true records IMO.  They finished -3 in close wins/losses, so they probably were better than their 6-9-1 record indicated.

[CWood21]

5 minutes ago, swede700 said:

But what I don't have knowledge of is whether Rodgers works nearly as hard as Peyton Manning did, especially at getting himself on the same page with his wide receivers.  Manning was notorious at getting himself and his wide receivers together during the offseason working together without the coaching staff and working on timing and routes.  Aaron Rodgers, as far as I am aware, doesn't do that.  In fact, I'm not even sure he even talks to them much during the offseason.  Now, I certainly don't know that, and if he does do that, that would certainly make my opinion a little different. 

And you're basing that on what?  Your opinion is being fed by a few clickbait articles.  There's literally NOTHING that indicates that Aaron Rodgers works any harder or less than any of the other NFCN QBs.  But you'll give the benefit of the doubt to Cousins, but not apply that to Rodgers.  It's literally an unfounded opinion.

[swede700]

17 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

And you're basing that on what?  Your opinion is being fed by a few clickbait articles.  There's literally NOTHING that indicates that Aaron Rodgers works any harder or less than any of the other NFCN QBs.  But you'll give the benefit of the doubt to Cousins, but not apply that to Rodgers.  It's literally an unfounded opinion.

For the record, I don't think Cousins does it either.  You compared him to Peyton Manning, not the other NFCN QBs.  IMO, there probably hasn't been a QB in the last 25 years that has worked harder than Peyton Manning (other than maybe Tom Brady), which is the reason why he's going to be in the HOF.  He didn't rely solely on his talent, which he had quite a bit, but his work ethic was off the charts.  

As I said, I don't personally know, but there certainly hasn't been any evidence to suggest that he does call them together during the offseason.  If he did so, I imagine with his profile and the team he plays for, people would know.  There's more out there about his love life with Olivia Munn and now Danica Patrick than there is about his offseason prep work with his teammates.    

Edited May 13, 2019 by swede700

[CWood21]

6 minutes ago, swede700 said:

For the record, I don't think Cousins does it either.  You compared him to Peyton Manning, not the other NFCN QBs.  IMO, there probably hasn't been a QB in the last 25 years that has worked harder than Peyton Manning (other than maybe Tom Brady), which is the reason why he's going to be in the HOF.  He didn't rely solely on his talent, which he had quite a bit, but his work ethic was off the charts.  

As I said, I don't personally know, but there certainly hasn't been any evidence to suggest that he does call them together during the offseason.  If he did so, I imagine with his profile and the team he plays for, people would know.  There's more out there about his love life with Olivia Munn and now Danica Patrick than there is about his offseason prep work with his teammates.    

I mean, we're making an arbitrary benchmark as to what makes Peyton Manning a harder worker than Aaron Rodgers.  There's not an iota of evidence that suggests that Aaron Rodgers doesn't work hard.  Just because he's not doing what YOU want him to do doesn't mean he isn't working hard.  That's the issue I have.  For the majority of his career, he's worked his arse off and suddenly now that he's had a bad year he's relying solely on his talent.  That's not the case.  Talking about Aaron Rodgers' love life is a clickbait.  It's going to get more clicks than him tossing the football around after practice.  How often do we hear about Giselle and Tom Brady?  Too much.

[swede700]

3 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I mean, we're making an arbitrary benchmark as to what makes Peyton Manning a harder worker than Aaron Rodgers.  There's not an iota of evidence that suggests that Aaron Rodgers doesn't work hard.  Just because he's not doing what YOU want him to do doesn't mean he isn't working hard.  That's the issue I have.  For the majority of his career, he's worked his arse off and suddenly now that he's had a bad year he's relying solely on his talent.  That's not the case.  Talking about Aaron Rodgers' love life is a clickbait.  It's going to get more clicks than him tossing the football around after practice.  How often do we hear about Giselle and Tom Brady?  Too much.

You are taking my comments way out of context.  In no way did I say that he doesn't work hard, nor did I say he was relying solely on his talent.  What I said is he doesn't work with his teammates to the same level as Peyton Manning did, because that was the comparison you made when I said Aaron won't be able to carry his team.  Working with his teammates, and getting on the same page with them during the offseason is how Peyton stayed as relevant as long as he did.  Aaron, as far as I know, doesn't do that.  That doesn't mean he doesn't work hard.  I'm sure he does (he wouldn't be as good as he is without doing so)...but success depends upon whether you are working hard at the right things and making your offense be the best it can be. 

I've seen many a Viking QB work hard (except for Christian Ponder), but they don't necessarily work hard at the right things, so they may not have been able to generate the offensive success that they may have been able to had they done something different.  Brett Favre, even in his short time with the Vikings, got players together in the offseason to work on getting their timing down.  Many others did not, even including Kirk Cousins as far as I am aware.  Therefore, that gives me pause in saying that the Vikings' offense will be as good as it can be.  That doesn't mean he doesn't work hard either.  

But, as far as Rodgers goes is how the Packers will go, that's just reality.  And for the Packers to win a lot, the offense is going to have to be the best it can be, and I'm not sure that's the case if Rodgers doesn''t go the extra mile to get on the same page with his receivers, especially with as young as they are.  He needs to lead them and show them where he needs them to be.  His work ethic at making himself better is not the question I have.  My question is whether he's making the offense the best it can be.  

[dll2000]

You can work hard and not work as hard as Peyton Manning.  Nobody worked as hard as Peyton Manning.

I went to a youth football talk with Dungy once and he told a Manning story to illustrate.  They drafted a WR, I think it was A. Gonzalez, and he was still taking classes trying to graduate Oh. St. Manning drove to his campus several hours several times to work him out and teach him so he would be ready and useful for the season.

 

 

[swede700]

6 hours ago, swede700 said:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/13/entertainment/aaron-rodgers-game-thrones/index.html