Cheese Curds: Green Bay Packers Updates

[skywindO2]

42 minutes ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

Our defense hasn't been good enough over the last 8 years to call it a rebuild.

We are in a build.

When you put it like that, I'd definitely like for them to re-build. 

[vike daddy]

Per the league’s transaction wire, the Packers have placed tight end Jace Sternberger on injured reserve. Sternberger, their third-round pick from Texas A&M, would be eligible to return after eight weeks.

Per Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com, Sternberger has been seen recently in a walking boot after an ankle injury.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/09/03/packers-place-jace-sternberger-on-ir/

[Krauser]

2 hours ago, vike daddy said:

Per the league’s transaction wire, the Packers have placed tight end Jace Sternberger on injured reserve. Sternberger, their third-round pick from Texas A&M, would be eligible to return after eight weeks.

Reminds me of the Packers fan who came to our board after the draft and claimed GB had gotten similar or better players at the same positions as the Vikings top 3 picks with their 2nd rounder (IOL Elgton Jenkins), 3rd rounder (TE Sternberger) and 6th rounder (RB Dex Williams). 

Jenkins had a good preseason but couldn't win the starting LG job from veteran Lane Taylor. He'll be an IOL backup this year. 

Sternberger had one catch for 4 yards with 2 drops in the one preseason game he was healthy enough to play in. He was GB's TE4 before his injury. He may be back later this year but it seems unlikely he'll play as a rookie.

Williams caught flack from LaFleur for making too many mental mistakes in practices. He was the 4th string RB for much of the preseason but ended up sticking on the roster as RB3. 

Meanwhile their 12th overall pick, Rashan Gary, finished the preseason with a single QB hurry, the 181th of 189 edge rushers in pass rush productivity.

The party line is that Gary was a good pick even though he's a raw athlete who's not very good yet, because of the positional value of edge rushers. Green Bay just maybe should've drafted one who can get to the QB. Brian Burns (4 sacks in preseason, PFF grade of 87.0) went to the Panthers a few picks later.

[wcblack34]

I think Green Bay took precisely who they should have, @Krauser 😊😊😊

[swede700]

I recall Gerby said on Twitter that Sternberger was the best TE in the draft.  

[CWood21]

14 hours ago, Krauser said:

Reminds me of the Packers fan who came to our board after the draft and claimed GB had gotten similar or better players at the same positions as the Vikings top 3 picks with their 2nd rounder (IOL Elgton Jenkins), 3rd rounder (TE Sternberger) and 6th rounder (RB Dex Williams). 

Nothing crazy with that notion.  Teams are always going to overrate the players, but I wouldn't act like any of those players are clearly better than any of the others.  The only one that probably isn't close is Dexter Williams, and that's because Dexter Williams has struggled with the finer points of his game.

14 hours ago, Krauser said:

Jenkins had a good preseason but couldn't win the starting LG job from veteran Lane Taylor. He'll be an IOL backup this year. 

That had more to do with the versatility that Elgton Jenkins provides that Lane Taylor doesn't.  And when the inevitable injury happens, it's probably best to do minimal shuffling along the OL.  Elgton Jenkins can play any of the IOL positions, and Billy Turner is probably our backup RT if/when Bryan Bulaga gets hurt.  By most accounts, Elgton Jenkins was actually better than Lane Taylor, but there's value in not having to shuffle around the OL because of injury.

14 hours ago, Krauser said:

Sternberger had one catch for 4 yards with 2 drops in the one preseason game he was healthy enough to play in. He was GB's TE4 before his injury. He may be back later this year but it seems unlikely he'll play as a rookie.

It was always going to be a RS year for Jace Sternberger.  We knew that, the NFL knew that, everyone knew that.  He was going to at best be TE2.  Jimmy Graham makes too much for him to be sitting on the bench, Robert Tonyan was the developmental guy who has shown significant improvement, and Marcedes Lewis is the steady veteran.  Did Irv Smith actually win the TE2 position, or did he win it by default?  Legitimately asking, because I never viewed Tyler Conklin as anything more than an average backup TE.

14 hours ago, Krauser said:

Meanwhile their 12th overall pick, Rashan Gary, finished the preseason with a single QB hurry, the 181th of 189 edge rushers in pass rush productivity.

The party line is that Gary was a good pick even though he's a raw athlete who's not very good yet, because of the positional value of edge rushers. Green Bay just maybe should've drafted one who can get to the QB. Brian Burns (4 sacks in preseason, PFF grade of 87.0) went to the Panthers a few picks later.

Unless you're talking about elite EDGE, you're usually looking for that Y1 to Y2 jump.  Not immediate production.  Not to mention, using PFF grades as your end-all, be-all is awful.  Brian Burns is going to get absolutely abused in the run game.  Unlike Gary who actually projects to be plus in that regard, but use some meaningless PFF grades and preseason sack totals to justify your argument.

[vike daddy]

Brett Favre:  "I’m very curious to see how LaFleur and Aaron get along as the season progresses. I would hope that LaFleur wouldn’t handcuff Aaron too much. I know he said he’s changing the offense but you’ve got to let Rodgers play and let him do his thing. And a lot of those things that he does are not in the playbook, and you do not want to take that away from him. So it’ll be interesting, the dynamics there.”

“At this stage of Aaron’s career, and he and I talked about it at length this offseason, he’s at the time right now in his career when I was when he came in. I was going through a new coaching situation much like he’s going through now. And so there’s this sense of whose team is it? Is it LaFleur’s? Is it Aaron Rodgers’? And that’s not being braggadocious in any way but he set the bar extremely high. I think McCarthy did a great deal of helping that. But make no mistake, it is Aaron Rodgers who ultimately made those plays. And so you wonder if that’s gonna change and you’re always kinda looking over your shoulder because you are at that point in your career where things are changing. And change at times is good but in the case that Aaron is in now it makes you wonder what’s to come and how quickly it is to come. So it’s gonna be interesting to see.”

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/09/04/brett-favre-hopes-matt-lafleur-wont-handcuff-aaron-rodgers-too-much/

[vike daddy]

ruh roh....

[swede700]

So is Favre saying "Don't be surprised if the Packers draft future HOF KJ Costello next year"?  

[Krauser]

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

That had more to do with the versatility that Elgton Jenkins provides that Lane Taylor doesn't.  And when the inevitable injury happens, it's probably best to do minimal shuffling along the OL.  Elgton Jenkins can play any of the IOL positions, and Billy Turner is probably our backup RT if/when Bryan Bulaga gets hurt.  By most accounts, Elgton Jenkins was actually better than Lane Taylor, but there's value in not having to shuffle around the OL because of injury.

Elgton Jenkins is a good prospect, and had a good preseason. He's not a starting C as a rookie, so he's not a better pick than Bradbury at the same position, which was my point.

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

It was always going to be a RS year for Jace Sternberger.  We knew that, the NFL knew that, everyone knew that.  He was going to at best be TE2.  Jimmy Graham makes too much for him to be sitting on the bench, Robert Tonyan was the developmental guy who has shown significant improvement, and Marcedes Lewis is the steady veteran.  Did Irv Smith actually win the TE2 position, or did he win it by default?  Legitimately asking, because I never viewed Tyler Conklin as anything more than an average backup TE

Hmm, I don't remember a consensus that Sternberger wasn't going to contribute this year. 

I did point out in analyzing the Packers draft that it would be tough to play them with Graham, since neither one can block.

Irv was good in training camp and preseason. He looks like he's able to play the role they drafted him to fill, as the H-back/move TE.

Conklin had an excellent preseason, as did the 4th TE, UDFA rookie Brandon Dillon. 

Hard to project Sternberger as a better TE than Smith right now, which was my point. 

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Unless you're talking about elite EDGE, you're usually looking for that Y1 to Y2 jump.  Not immediate production.  Not to mention, using PFF grades as your end-all, be-all is awful.  Brian Burns is going to get absolutely abused in the run game.  Unlike Gary who actually projects to be plus in that regard, but use some meaningless PFF grades and preseason sack totals to justify your argument.

PFF grades are useful, especially evaluating line play. Agree they shouldn't be the only metric.

Lots of great pass rushers are effective in their rookie seasons. For example the last excellent Packers pass rusher, Clay Matthews, put up 10 sacks and 49 pressures as a rookie, finishing 10th in the league among full-time edge rushers in pass rush productivity.

Burns was much more effective than Gary as a pass rusher this preseason. 

Gary wasn't good against the run this preseason, though I agree that was a strength of his as a prospect and he should do well on that front over the long-term. 

The positional value of an edge rusher is in pass rushing, not run defense. Either Gary is an effective pass rusher, or he wasn't worth taking 12th overall.

[CWood21]

21 minutes ago, Krauser said:

Elgton Jenkins is a good prospect, and had a good preseason. He's not a starting C as a rookie, so he's not a better pick than Bradbury at the same position, which was my point.

So we're going to penalize Elgton Jenkins because he doesn't have an entrenched starter on a 2nd contract?  Seems logical.  By that screwy logic, some starting 4th round pick is better than a 1st round pick who is coming off the bench.  It's nonsensical, and you know that.

22 minutes ago, Krauser said:

Hmm, I don't remember a consensus that Sternberger wasn't going to contribute this year. 

I did point out in analyzing the Packers draft that it would be tough to play them with Graham, since neither one can block.

Irv was good in training camp and preseason. He looks like he's able to play the role they drafted him to fill, as the H-back/move TE.

Conklin had an excellent preseason, as did the 4th TE, UDFA rookie Brandon Dillon. 

Hard to project Sternberger as a better TE than Smith right now, which was my point. 

Sternberger was always viewed as a guy who was more about a year from now.  He was a mediocre run blocker in college, and at best it was going to take him a year to spend time in a S&C room before he would be serviceable.  And there's the historical evidence that suggests that you're looking for that Y1 to Y2 jump.  Statistically speaking, Jace Stenberger actually outproduced Irv Smith Jr. in their final years in CFB.

26 minutes ago, Krauser said:

PFF grades are useful, especially evaluating line play. Agree they shouldn't be the only metric.

Lots of great pass rushers are effective in their rookie seasons. For example the last excellent Packers pass rusher, Clay Matthews, put up 10 sacks and 49 pressures as a rookie, finishing 10th in the league among full-time edge rushers in pass rush productivity.

Burns was much more effective than Gary as a pass rusher this preseason. 

Gary wasn't good against the run this preseason, though I agree that was a strength of his as a prospect and he should do well on that front over the long-term. 

The positional value of an edge rusher is in pass rushing, not run defense. Either Gary is an effective pass rusher, or he wasn't worth taking 12th overall.

PFF grades are only semi-useful with regards to OL play, but overall the notion that they can be used as an end-all, be-all is a terrible take.  And pass rushers usually aren't big producers as rookies.  Use your Danielle Hunter as an example.  You're looking for them to flash as pass rushers.  If you're consistently getting a premier pass rusher as a rookie, you're probably looking at a former top 5 pick.  Khalil Mack had 4 sacks as a rookie, but then he was consistently a double-digit sack player.  Dee Ford had 5.5 sacks in his first two year, and two of the next three seasons he had 10+ sacks.  Go back and look at the pass rushers who have flopped in recent years.  They usually struggle horribly as rookies.  Brian Burns might pop occasionally as a rookie, and I anticipate he will have a higher sack total than Gary.  But he's going to get absolutely destroyed in the run game.

And the notion that Rashan Gary looked bad in run defense is amusing.  Care to guess what the 3 QBs that Gary faced have in common?  Joe Webb, Lamar Jackson, and Trace McSorley are very mobile QBs.  He occasionally lost gap assignment when in run support, but nowhere near there notion that it's going to be an issue.

Let me ask you question, was Jadeveon Clowney worth the 1st overall pick?

[Krauser]

2 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

So we're going to penalize Elgton Jenkins because he doesn't have an entrenched starter on a 2nd contract?  Seems logical.  By that screwy logic, some starting 4th round pick is better than a 1st round pick who is coming off the bench.  It's nonsensical, and you know that.

I'm not "penalizing" him for anything. I'm pointing out that he's not a better starting C than Bradbury, which is what the Packers fan was claiming.

He's a good prospect, and he'll have a good career.

2 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Sternberger was always viewed as a guy who was more about a year from now.  He was a mediocre run blocker in college, and at best it was going to take him a year to spend time in a S&C room before he would be serviceable.  And there's the historical evidence that suggests that you're looking for that Y1 to Y2 jump.  Statistically speaking, Jace Stenberger actually outproduced Irv Smith Jr. in their final years in CFB.

Again, I don't remember a lot of discussion about Sternberger not playing as a rookie, or being behind Tonyan on the depth chart.

College production, whatever. Sternberger is 2 years older than Smith, and may be 3 years older than Smith will be when they each catch their first NFL pass. We'll see how it goes, but it's hard to rate Sternberger ahead of Smith right now, which is what I was replying to.

6 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

PFF grades are only semi-useful with regards to OL play, but overall the notion that they can be used as an end-all, be-all is a terrible take.

Luckily that's not my take. Glad we agree. Let's move on.

6 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

And pass rushers usually aren't big producers as rookies.  Use your Danielle Hunter as an example.

Hunter had 12 pressures his rookie preseason. Gary had 1. 

Hunter had 5 sacks and 31 pressures as a rookie, playing part time (262 pass rush snaps) as the DE3 that year. He was productive for his role. If Gary is similarly productive as a rotational pass rusher, I'll give him full credit.

9 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

And the notion that Rashan Gary looked bad in run defense is amusing.

I didn't say he looked bad, I said he wasn't good. I'm not evaluating him against scrambling QBs but standard run plays. He wasn't terrible but he didn't make any plays. 

Run defense isn't worthless, but it isn't the reason why edge is considered a valuable position. No matter how terrible Brian Burns is against the run (and he wasn't terrible in preseason anyway), if he can get to the QB he's a valuable edge rusher. 

Let me ask you a question, is Rashan Gary a good pass rusher? If he's not, or at least if he doesn't become one within a year or so, I don't think he was a good pick at 12th overall.

[wcblack34]

Danielle Hunter also wasn't the 12th overall pick. Gary was. 

[CWood21]

18 hours ago, Krauser said:

I'm not "penalizing" him for anything. I'm pointing out that he's not a better starting C than Bradbury, which is what the Packers fan was claiming.

He's a good prospect, and he'll have a good career.

Except you are.  You've literally just made the argument that because Garrett Bradbury is your starting C, and Elgton Jenkins isn't that Bradbury is better.  That's an awful argument to make.  The Vikings don't currently have a backup C listed, while the Packers currently have Corey Linsley as their starting C.  If the situations were reversed, would you be arguing that Jenkins or Bradbury was better?

18 hours ago, Krauser said:

Again, I don't remember a lot of discussion about Sternberger not playing as a rookie, or being behind Tonyan on the depth chart.

College production, whatever. Sternberger is 2 years older than Smith, and may be 3 years older than Smith will be when they each catch their first NFL pass. We'll see how it goes, but it's hard to rate Sternberger ahead of Smith right now, which is what I was replying to.

Sternberger is a little over 2 years older than Smith Jr., so the "3 years older" is stretching it at best.  Ironically, there wasn't a whole heck of a lot separating them.  Jace Sternberger caught 4 more balls, had 122 more receiving yards, and 3 more TD receptions than Irv Smith Jr. had in their last year in CFB.  Athletically, they didn't test overly far off.  Jace Sternberger is a bit taller and longer, but Irv Smith had a slightly better 40 yard dash.  Overall, the production is similar and the testing is close enough, what really separates the two of them?  Irv Smith is a couple of years younger, and one played for Alabama while the other played for A&M.  I'm failing to see what exactly makes Irv Smith anything special?

18 hours ago, Krauser said:

Hunter had 12 pressures his rookie preseason. Gary had 1. 

Hunter had 5 sacks and 31 pressures as a rookie, playing part time (262 pass rush snaps) as the DE3 that year. He was productive for his role. If Gary is similarly productive as a rotational pass rusher, I'll give him full credit.

Kinda hard to get pressure when the QB is running before the ball is even snapped.  There's a reason why Joe Webb isn't a starting QB, and Lamar Jackson is the best running QB in the NFL.  That's not really a good barometer.

18 hours ago, Krauser said:

I didn't say he looked bad, I said he wasn't good. I'm not evaluating him against scrambling QBs but standard run plays. He wasn't terrible but he didn't make any plays. 

Run defense isn't worthless, but it isn't the reason why edge is considered a valuable position. No matter how terrible Brian Burns is against the run (and he wasn't terrible in preseason anyway), if he can get to the QB he's a valuable edge rusher. 

Let me ask you a question, is Rashan Gary a good pass rusher? If he's not, or at least if he doesn't become one within a year or so, I don't think he was a good pick at 12th overall.

Yes.  He's underdeveloped as a pass rusher, but you definitely see the tools.  It's going to be all about refinement with him.  If you can find a counter to use, he's going to be good.  But right now, he's a guy who is relying solely on his athletic tools.  Brian Burns on the other hand doesn't have those tools, so he's relying on his one trick (elite initial burst) and hoping that is going to carry him to success.  But what happens if/when OL get their hands on him?  He's like a fish out of water.

[vike daddy]

Aaron Rodgers funded the purchase of 135 helmets for three high school football teams in this area, his home town. they're top of the line helmets at $950 each, so about $130,00 total.

he also gave a "seven figure sum" to Cal Berkeley recently for upgraded locker rooms.