Is Earl Thomas worth #50?

[Rtnldave]

Yes without question!!!! Our 2nd round picks, especially at DB, have been nothing to write home about. This guy comes in and instantly makes our defensive backfield better. A rookie at 50 will not.

At some point you have to sign an impact FA or trade for a player that helps your team today (See Iggles 2017), not 2 years from now. By then Dak and Zeke will demand big bucks, T Smith is on his way out, Witten and Lee are gone, your O line will be too expensive to keep together, and you have to start filling those holes.

If we are 1 solid player away from making our defense THAT much better, what are you really losing in pick 50? A guy that MIGHT be of some use down the road? If his presence, paired with his old coach, can give our defense teeth, and our offense can play ball control, mistake free offense, we could contend this year. Can you say that about a rookie at 50?

No, you pull the trigger on this one.

[Dallas94Ware]

11 minutes ago, Rtnldave said:

Yes without question!!!! Our 2nd round picks, especially at DB, have been nothing to write home about. This guy comes in and instantly makes our defensive backfield better. A rookie at 50 will not.

At some point you have to sign an impact FA or trade for a player that helps your team today (See Iggles 2017), not 2 years from now. By then Dak and Zeke will demand big bucks, T Smith is on his way out, Witten and Lee are gone, your O line will be too expensive to keep together, and you have to start filling those holes.

If we are 1 solid player away from making our defense THAT much better, what are you really losing in pick 50? A guy that MIGHT be of some use down the road? If his presence, paired with his old coach, can give our defense teeth, and our offense can play ball control, mistake free offense, we could contend this year. Can you say that about a rookie at 50?

No, you pull the trigger on this one.

Is the team really one player away? Is the D one player away? I mean lets view it this way:

At right defensive end, the team started a guy more suited as an undertackle, and has added a guy who was awfully close to falling out of the league last year. 

At corner, we look sharp, but the inexperience is going to cost this team games, or at the least, give up dumb plays for.points. its ienvitiable

Linebacker. Can they stay healthy? Whos going to step up? Can a rookie fill such a big role? 

Offensively, can Dak take the next step? Can Hurns fill Dezs role? No rookie WR is going to, WR is one of the hardest transitions to make from ncaa to nfl. Will the line play less like 2017 and more like 2016? 

Too many questions. Too many holes. Not enough depth. We are not one player away, nor is the defense one player away. A short 3 yearish rental on a big contract is not going to put the team that far ahead at a position THAT IS NOT EVEN THAT HIGH OF A VALUED POSITION. No team in the history of football was ever like "man, if i just had a safety, id be unstoppable!"

Safety is one of those positions that typically is filled for cheaper because ideally all you need is a guy who can trail the football, not give up position, and play with a good understanding ofnwhat to expect from different offensive formations.

See, I dont think you play ET as a robber. In this system, the robber is far more valuable. But ET is a cover 3 safety. You will likely plug him back deep, drop him into the robber role once in a while, but as a cover 3 guy its going to be one of those deep half roles for him. And Im fine fielding Woods and Heath and a rookie in those deep half roles, dropping Heath inward for a robber role, and keeping my safeties cheap. Because its just not that valuable of a position. Unless theyre going to be a stud robber. Not some cover 3 veteran counting 10+ against my cap when i can barely afford my own guys.

 

 

[DaBoys]

Does ET make this team a SB contender this year? If not then we should care more about "down the road." Because there's a chance ET retires before our pick 50s rookie contract does. And an even better chance he plays '18 with us and moves on to FA for big $.

[resilient part 2]

If Dallas traded it's 50 pick, ET would definitely "hold us hostage" when he becomes a FA next year.  He knows Dallas gave up a very good future prospect and wouldn't want to lose that pick for nothing. 

Now if there was a way to negotiate an extension before the trade then maybe.

[Rtnldave]

1 hour ago, Dallas94Ware said:

Is the team really one player away? Is the D one player away? I mean lets view it this way:

At right defensive end, the team started a guy more suited as an undertackle, and has added a guy who was awfully close to falling out of the league last year. 

At corner, we look sharp, but the inexperience is going to cost this team games, or at the least, give up dumb plays for.points. its ienvitiable

Linebacker. Can they stay healthy? Whos going to step up? Can a rookie fill such a big role? 

Offensively, can Dak take the next step? Can Hurns fill Dezs role? No rookie WR is going to, WR is one of the hardest transitions to make from ncaa to nfl. Will the line play less like 2017 and more like 2016? 

Too many questions. Too many holes. Not enough depth. We are not one player away, nor is the defense one player away. A short 3 yearish rental on a big contract is not going to put the team that far ahead at a position THAT IS NOT EVEN THAT HIGH OF A VALUED POSITION. No team in the history of football was ever like "man, if i just had a safety, id be unstoppable!"

Safety is one of those positions that typically is filled for cheaper because ideally all you need is a guy who can trail the football, not give up position, and play with a good understanding ofnwhat to expect from different offensive formations.

See, I dont think you play ET as a robber. In this system, the robber is far more valuable. But ET is a cover 3 safety. You will likely plug him back deep, drop him into the robber role once in a while, but as a cover 3 guy its going to be one of those deep half roles for him. And Im fine fielding Woods and Heath and a rookie in those deep half roles, dropping Heath inward for a robber role, and keeping my safeties cheap. Because its just not that valuable of a position. Unless theyre going to be a stud robber. Not some cover 3 veteran counting 10+ against my cap when i can barely afford my own guys.

 

 

I find this statement ridiculously funny considering how many DB's we drafted in the past 10 years in the first 3 rounds. AND WE STILL DON'T HAVE IT RIGHT! It has been Dallas's mindset to ignore the interior of the D line for over 2 decades with the mindset that we can build a "shut down" secondary without it. Still has not worked.

So with that said, if they are going to continue in this mindset, then get the BPA at the position, he is proven, with a proven DB coach who won 1, should have been 2, SB's.

If you are going to address all of the other needs you listed, this team will be on a perpetual cycle of have this/ need that. Because it takes some time for many of these guys to adjust to the league. At some point you have to grab a guy that will be THAT much of a difference maker and trust that it works. 

You think 1 guy can't make that much of a difference on defense? What happened to the center of our defense in the running game when Lee went out? Todd Gurley ring a bell? We were swiss cheese.

What happened to Roy Williams when Darren Woodson retired? EXPOSED!!!!

What happened to our QB protection when T. Smith went down? 6 sacks in 1 game by the same guy?????!!!!!! Okay, that one was on the offense, but the point still stands.

1 guy, if it's the RIGHT guy can make that much of a difference.

Can who we are going to draft at 50 be that guy? Against a proven DB with SB experience??? Doubt it.

Oh yes, 1 more thing, we DID manage to win 9 games last year in spite of a swiss cheese O Line, Zeke out for 6 games, losing Lee, Bailey getting hurt and then cold feet. Possibly only one win away from making the playoffs. Do you think ET could have helped us get that 1 win? And then who knows what happens in the playoffs. Jacksonville, Minnesota, Iggles back up QB besting a 10 year dynasty. You just never know once you get in.

[Dallas94Ware]

The Dbs we have selected early have been corners. Byron was moved to safety after playing corner. Safeties have traditionally been one of the lowest value positions on the defense. A big time player at safety is very nice. But unless youre getting a guy in his early and mid 20s to play a star role, its stupid ti bypass a chance at your own young star to trade for a guy in his 30s who isnt even a top fit here, is going to count star WR money against the cap, and is likely to be a 2 and at most a 3 year rental.

[SweetFancyMoses]

I'm all for trading 50 for Earl Thomas.   I normally wouldn't be, but all we do is draft "first round grade guys" who have fallen to the 2nd because of injury, bad behavior, and/or drug history.    Rather have Earl than draft some guy who will play a quarter of the games his first 3 years, and then ball out on his fourth.

[Texasmade]

If you could manage to trade back, and pick up an extra 3rd, I think I'd rather try to tempt them with a 3rd and 4th instead. Probably pie in the sky, for multiple reasons, but a man can dream...

[Tony7188]

No. As much as I love E.T. as a safety, I wouldn't mortgage the future on a safety with high "mileage" and is on the last year of his deal. We are not 1 player away from the defense being elite either. There's question marks at the LB position (injury history and depth), wide receiver (talent) and the corner position. 

I would offer both our two 4th round picks at max for Earl Thomas. If that's not good enough, I would wait until next off-season. 

[Nextyearfordaboyz]

He is clearly worth pick #50. 2nd round draft picks have about a 50/50 shot of becoming a regular starter. It's almost impossible that you are going to get a better performance out of your 2nd round pick in his rookie contract than you would out of the next 4 years of Earl Thomas, so the main thing you are missing out on is an ability to get a 2nd contract out of that selection. 

Now there are a few questions to be answered: Could we get him for less? If Earl decided to hold out, would standing firm through the draft allow us to get him this year for a pick next year? Could we just wait a year and sign him for free? Does Derwin James, perhaps, fall close enough to #19 for a trade up?

I'd lean towards flipping #50 for Earl, but I'm interested in letting it play out a little longer to see if we can't wind up with an even better scenario.

[DaBoys]

If we trade 50 for ET, and he does great, then walks in free agency there's a chance we get a 4th round comp out of that. Something to consider. Basically trading 50 for ET plus a future comp.

[DaBoys]

I think it's safe to say that everyone here loves Earl Thomas as a football player.

[buddy_z34]

1 minute ago, DaBoys said:

If we trade 50 for ET, and he does great, then walks in free agency there's a chance we get a 4th round comp out of that. Something to consider

Plus he is on the last year of his contract which in turn might give him even more reason to ball out an produce huge for the team.

[BigD88]

18 hours ago, Tony7188 said:

No. As much as I love E.T. as a safety, I wouldn't mortgage the future on a safety with high "mileage" and is on the last year of his deal. We are not 1 player away from the defense being elite either. There's question marks at the LB position (injury history and depth), wide receiver (talent) and the corner position. 

I would offer both our two 4th round picks at max for Earl Thomas. If that's not good enough, I would wait until next off-season. 

What this guy said.

I wouldn't even give up our 3rd.  I'm not saddling myself with a big contract for an over 30 player in a year who will be past his prime in 18 months.

And why in the world would I trade a 2nd for one year of ET to get a 4th round compensatory pick two years from now?  We're not a super bowl team this season.  So what's the point?  This move doesn't make any sense.

[WizardHawk]

19 hours ago, Texasmade said:

If you could manage to trade back, and pick up an extra 3rd, I think I'd rather try to tempt them with a 3rd and 4th instead. Probably pie in the sky, for multiple reasons, but a man can dream...

This is something I'd keep watch on. Dallas is sitting in a good spot as 1st rd grades typically don't run very deep. Move back 10 spots and you're in the ballpark of picking up another 2nd rder.