Is Earl Thomas worth #50?

[WizardHawk]

20 hours ago, Tony7188 said:

No. As much as I love E.T. as a safety, I wouldn't mortgage the future on a safety with high "mileage" and is on the last year of his deal. We are not 1 player away from the defense being elite either. There's question marks at the LB position (injury history and depth), wide receiver (talent) and the corner position. 

I would offer both our two 4th round picks at max for Earl Thomas. If that's not good enough, I would wait until next off-season. 

I don't see how you're mortgaging future. Already have one of the youngest cores in place. Team is flush with cap space. All those question marks can still be addressed in 1, 3rd and twice in 4th....minus CB which I don't see as a need. 

[Dallas94Ware]

Giving up a pick that could be a 4+ year starter, with 4 years at a low cap hit, for a player that could be here for as little as 1 season and likely, if reworking his contract, stays maybe 2-3 years, is mortgaging the future for a 31 year old player who hasnt been the same the last two seasons anyway, who fits a cover 3 mold more than cover 2 or cover 1, and will cost as much this season as Odell Beckham Jr.

[flyingmonkey30]

First and foremost, ET turns 29 next week. He's still on the right side of 30.

Secondly, we're talking about him like he hasn't been the best safety in the game for the past 6 years. He was still an All-Pro this season, and hasn't showed many signs of slowing down. As WH pointed out, we have ample cap space ($80M projected with room to add more) to sign our own guys back next year too. Maybe it's just me, but I see ET as a difference maker for this defense. He, along with say LVE or Evans or even Harold Landry, can finally get our defense over the hump.

[buddy_z34]

50 minutes ago, Dallas94Ware said:

Giving up a pick that could be a 4+ year starter, with 4 years at a low cap hit, for a player that could be here for as little as 1 season and likely, if reworking his contract, stays maybe 2-3 years, is mortgaging the future for a 31 year old player who hasnt been the same the last two seasons anyway, who fits a cover 3 mold more than cover 2 or cover 1, and will cost as much this season as Odell Beckham Jr.

What if Richard gets promoted to DC next year? Would he more than likely convert the team to a Cover 3? IMO with the personnel currently on the team itll be an easy switch. Would Thomas re-sign at a discount? I know its a ton of what-ifs but i believe this is more than likely to occur.

[Dallas94Ware]

7 minutes ago, buddy_z34 said:

What if Richard gets promoted to DC next year? Would he more than likely convert the team to a Cover 3? IMO with the personnel currently on the team itll be an easy switch. Would Thomas re-sign at a discount? I know its a ton of what-ifs but i believe this is more than likely to occur.

You cannot blindly convert the D to run more cover 3. The DBs here, mainly Chido and Byron, are good press guys and play well in man. You do not want them playing off the ball so often.

And what happens in a ayear or two when Thomas is 33/34 and making 14+ a year? You cut him, take a huge hit, and set yourself back both cap wise and position wise? Or better to just use a second round pick on a safety, where rhere should be at least 3 solid choices to pick from?

And Richard was available for a reason. You cant just predict handing him the keys. He is a very good positional coach for DBs. But defensive playcalling is a monster he never learned to grappe with. You guys get pissed at Marinelli's predictability - Richard was even worse last season. If he learns a lot from Rod and does well this year, yeah, maybe. But you dont go trading premium picks and cap dollars for a 'maybe next year this change can be made' sort of thing.

[buddy_z34]

A lot of what Seattle runs is press coverage then fall back into a zone. Ive seen the corners make plays while doing this more often than when playing man coverage. For years i believe Dallas has been trying to emulate what Seattle has been doing. By using the Sparq scores to adding Richard to adding more RPO's this year for Dak. Not everything will be identical of course but the base readings are there. To me itll be a flawless transition. 

Heres a scouting report for Awuzie in last years draft - Awuzie does a little bit of everything from playing inside and outside at corner to blitzing off the edge, which led to eight sacks in his last two seasons at Colorado. Teams that run a lot of zone coverage will love Awuzie because he’s more experienced in it than most and expertly reads routes. He’s a screen pass killer. Coaches will love him. He may never get a lot of interceptions, and will get beat over the top by speed receivers. 

The only DB would be Lewis whom would have some trouble converting to a Cover 3. Who knows what would happen though. Earl Thomas is that great that he wouldnt need a cover 3 scheme. He could slide in easily within the teams man cover 2 scheme. In a few days time we shall all find out.

 

[Dallas94Ware]

2 minutes ago, buddy_z34 said:

A lot of what Seattle runs is press coverage then fall back into a zone. Ive seen the corners make plays while doing this more often than when playing man coverage. For years i believe Dallas has been trying to emulate what Seattle has been doing. By using the Sparq scores to adding Richard to adding more RPO's this year for Dak. Not everything will be identical of course but the base readings are there. To me itll be a flawless transition. 

Heres a scouting report for Awuzie in last years draft - Awuzie does a little bit of everything from playing inside and outside at corner to blitzing off the edge, which led to eight sacks in his last two seasons at Colorado. Teams that run a lot of zone coverage will love Awuzie because he’s more experienced in it than most and expertly reads routes. He’s a screen pass killer. Coaches will love him. He may never get a lot of interceptions, and will get beat over the top by speed receivers. 

 

 

When they press, they are not running cover 3. It would be impossible to get to their deep thirds positioning in time. A TE or slot receiver would have a field day going deep to the outside od the field. Youd have to be a world class sprinter to get back there in time after a press...and no one has ever accused Richard Sherman of having CJ2K kind of speed. But thats what you would need.

[buddy_z34]

From what i seen on the field with my own eyes the DB's Dallas has drafted an have on their roster fit more to a zone scheme than man to man. Which is why i believe a transition to Richard would be flawless. Scheme versatile are most of the DB's on the roster. Hell i believe most of the INTs from the DB's last year came while playing zone. 

Adding the best safety in the league to the roster for a 2nd round pick possibly when the last handful of safeties drafted havent done squat for this organization. Come on now its a no brainer. Especially more so if the team trades back from 19.

[WizardHawk]

34 minutes ago, Dallas94Ware said:

You cannot blindly convert the D to run more cover 3. The DBs here, mainly Chido and Byron, are good press guys and play well in man. You do not want them playing off the ball so often. 

And what happens in a ayear or two when Thomas is 33/34 and making 14+ a year? You cut him, take a huge hit, and set yourself back both cap wise and position wise? Or better to just use a second round pick on a safety, where rhere should be at least 3 solid choices to pick from?

And Richard was available for a reason. You cant just predict handing him the keys. He is a very good positional coach for DBs. But defensive playcalling is a monster he never learned to grappe with. You guys get pissed at Marinelli's predictability - Richard was even worse last season. If he learns a lot from Rod and does well this year, yeah, maybe. But you dont go trading premium picks and cap dollars for a 'maybe next year this change can be made' sort of thing.

ET is 29. 3-4 yr extension to his current deal, keep it cheaper on back end.

Yeah KR was let go for a reason, Carroll saving his job probably. 3 yrs as DC, 2 top 3 finishes in pts allowed, total yds. and handcuffed with an offense that frankly wasn't great. Not sure I see a problem there. 

$80m and $140m in cap next two seasons. Young core. This is ideal time to add a vet. 

[Dallas94Ware]

11 minutes ago, buddy_z34 said:

From what i seen on the field with my own eyes the DB's Dallas has drafted an have on their roster fit more to a zone scheme than man to man. Which is why i believe a transition to Richard would be flawless. Scheme versatile are most of the DB's on the roster. Hell i believe most of the INTs from the DB's last year came while playing zone. 

Adding the best safety in the league to the roster for a 2nd round pick possibly when the last handful of safeties drafted havent done squat for this organization. Come on now its a no brainer. Especially more so if the team trades back from 19.

Dallas does run a zone scheme. We play a cover 2 and cover 1 robber often, both with man and zone concepts in front of them. That is not a secret and never has been.

Chido was selected, as was Byron, for their physical ability in zone. However, both also play very well and even excel in man coverage when running a robber field zone with a cover 1 behind it. Their zone coverage is fast and physical. And fits the teams design. But running a cover 3 is very different from running the kind of coverages run in Dallas.

Playing a cover 2 with zones beneath allows the corners outside to press and be physical with their receivers, while limiting the area of field they are assigned to. Playing a cover 1 with zones underneath allows the corners to press and funnel the receiver inside, while maintaining outside leverage and keeping the receivers closer to both the robber and the centerfield safety. When running cover 1 with man, with a robber zone (something this D has really done very well), the corners can put both concepts into work - press and play physical, attempt to maintain outside leverage, and let the robber play the backup defender/help from the inside.

Lewis is similar in that he was drafted for his fast paced zone coverage. But he is not as physical and is, in fact, more of an ideal fit for man coverage in a way that neither Byron nor Chido are: He is a chest-to-shoulder cover guy who gives little space in man coverage. 

Overall, the D is a zone based defense. But is not that early 2000s stuff they labeled as a Tampa 2 - not since Lee moved to the weak side. And nor should they be. The robber zone concept has done quite well for them, and has allowed Lee to play less mid zone stuff and get down hill after the ball where he is best.

Cover 3 corners by comparison, need to be good at playing off the receiver. They need to have enough distance to get to their posts quickly, while keeping a close enough range to the receiver to make a break on a quick throw and make a swift tackle. Sherman was exceptional on that quick break on the short throw from his initial backpedal into cover 3, and extremely physical on the cover 1 robber concept where he got to play a flat zone and reroute the receiver with his physicality.

Byron is not rangey enough for this. We have seen that with his safety play. I do not see it from Chido either. Lewis perhaps could, but then you take away what he does best. All for what - to bring in an expensive veteran and make it work? No thanks.

Thomas could fit in this system if your plug him back in a straight cover 2 and have him play deep halves all game, but isnt that a bit expensive, a second rounder on such a limited role? It is to me. This isnt the robber, owl, wildman, oxen role type of safety here where he will be in the mix down after down. 

[D82]

I think we can somewhat disregard what we used in the past coverage wise now that Richard is here. 

[Dallas94Ware]

16 minutes ago, Desperado82 said:

I think we can somewhat disregard what we used in the past coverage wise now that Richard is here. 

The system is still Rods to call. The passing coordinator title is simply responsible for assigning coverages based on offensive formation, for example - If the call from Rod is man coverage, its his say on if Lewis is taking, for example, OBJ or Shep, and where Chido steps in, etc. He will organize, during the week, which coverages are assigned to whom. For another example, if the call is a full out cover 2 zone but from a nickel package, whos playing inside and what safeties on the team are playing the deep halves?

Rod is calling the plays. He doesnt just call a front seven and Richard the secondary. Eberflus wasnt calling the secondary. And the lack of continuity between front 7/front 6 and secondary in terms of the play call would be a real issue on gameday playcalling.

Typically, passing game coordinators or coverage coordinators just gameplan pregame the coverage assignments based on the incoming playcall, determining matchups based on offensive and defensive play formation and personnel. If one calls a play and the other calls his portion of it...man that would get awfully messy.

[buddy_z34]

I think Awuzie can be that rangy an so can Byron if hes not asked to cover as much ground as he did playing cover 2. As of now we are speculating. Lets wait til training camp an preseason to see how much leeway Richard has in the defensive backfield.

[buddy_z34]

So you think Thomas cant come in and make this defensive backfield much better even in a Cover 2 scheme?

[Dallas94Ware]

13 minutes ago, buddy_z34 said:

So you think Thomas cant come in and make this defensive backfield much better even in a Cover 2 scheme?

Oh, he can. Never said he couldnt. But for a one or two year rental at a guy quickly fading off, i could not give up a pick where I could land a day 1 graded player which 10 years of football in him, 4 of which would be on the cheap.