Draft "What ifs"

[Broncofan]

17 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Well, the details of the trades just came off the top of my head real quick. A lot of what you say makes sense.

But I was more interested in what the implications would be of Buffalo moving up twice to to get to No. 2 and get another QB off the board, allowing at least two of the three (or four, since it seems we're high on Denzel Ward) non-QB prospects to be on the board for us at No. 5. 

Well if Klis were to be believed, then if it went Allen/Darnold/Mayfield 1.1 - 1.3 - then we'd go Barkley/Chubb (whoever CLE doesn't take)..and pass on BOTH Rosen & Nelson.

I don't know who'd be more depressed - @broncos67 and me for Rosen, or @AKRNA for Nelson.    Well, actually, I do know, the QB guys would be more depressed, as we all like Chubb/Barkley in a vacuum, just behind Nelson and/or Rosen.   If CLE took Chubb...man I absolutely love Barkley, but man, that would be crazy to take Barkley over Rosen, when we could get Rosen at 1.5 and one of the top 3 non-Nelson G's at 2.8 and likely a top 4-5 RB at 3.7.   That would follow BPA off the big board...but a pipe dream apparently.  Sigh. 

[jsthomp2007]

39 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

It would certainly be a swing for the fences move by Elway. And we know he's not afraid to do that. 

I think if they can get the Bills' two first rounders and they can get Vita Vea and the best OL prospect or ILB in the 20s...I am okay with that.  I mean, what did the Falcons give up to get Julio...it was something ridiculous to move up to 11...so, if the Broncos got the Bills' two first and a bit more...cool. 

[Royal_VT]

48 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

For the record- getting Darnold would make me happy. He's probably my favorite QB, but Rosen is the one I view as most attainable. They're 1A and 1B, so getting one would be great.

I think Denver is trading the 5 pick though. I think Elway recognizes that there's a lot of holes that we would be uniquely positioned to fill by moving down, even if it means we get another 1st next year.

What is the bar for this trade to be worth it for Darnold, an above average QB...top 10 QB, perennial Pro Bowler? I am scared to trade up, but if we do it's because the front office has their #1 QB available, whom I'd assume they see as a perennial Pro Bowl level player.

[BaldyBronco]

1 hour ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

What if...Denver trades up with the New York Giants (for QB Sam Darnold)?

The Browns select Josh Allen at No. 1 overall. The Giants are on the clock and Dave Gettleman's phone in his Meadowlands office begins to ring. 

Admittedly, this is unlikely given that Gettleman has been rumored to have turned down Buffalo's offer both their firsts and both their seconds and we don't have as much capital as they do. However, moving from No. 2 to No. 12 is much further jump back than moving from No. 2 to No. 5.

From the Giants perspective, if they know we're moving up for a QB (and Gettleman will want to know who Elway is going to take at No. 2) the Giants will look at Allen off the board to Cleveland, Darnold off the board to Denver, Mayfield off the board to the Jets and then Cleveland taking one of Saquon Barkley or Bradley Chubb, meaning the Giants at No. 5 will get whichever of those two - both of whom fill needs with immediate-impact players who have been linked to the G-Men - that Cleveland passes on. 

Trade Details: 

Denver gets the No. 2 overall pick. 

New York Giants get the No. 5 overall pick, the No. 40 overall pick and Denver's 2019 first round pick.

Draft: 

2. Sam Darnold, QB, USC

71. Michael Gallup, WR, CSU

99. Martinas Rankin, OT, Mississippi St.

106. Rashaad Penny, RB, SDSU

113. Josey Jewell, ILB, Iowa

This is a good draft and in the scenario of swing for the fences if the QB is there and you do what you gotta do to get him.  It scares me a lot however to, with this current roster, come out with ony 5 players, none of which will have a major impact as a rookie.

[BaldyBronco]

30 minutes ago, Royal_VT said:

What is the bar for this trade to be worth it for Darnold, an above average QB...top 10 QB, perennial Pro Bowler? I am scared to trade up, but if we do it's because the front office has their #1 QB available, whom I'd assume they see as a perennial Pro Bowl level player.

I think this question right here is the cypher to the entire draft.  If we knew.  A "mock" draft would not be hard to complete.

[AnAngryAmerican]

6 minutes ago, BaldyBronco said:

This is a good draft and in the scenario of swing for the fences if the QB is there and you do what you gotta do to get him.  It scares me a lot however to, with this current roster, come out with ony 5 players, none of which will have a major impact as a rookie.

Gallup, Penny and Jewel would contribute as rookies and we have two late round picks left that I didn't mock. We also have to remember that Carlos Henderson, Jake Butt and DeMarcus Walker are expected to contribute next year, according to the team. 

It would definitely not be a "win now" draft but it would be a "win from now on" draft. 

[Broncofan]

12 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Gallup, Penny and Jewel would contribute as rookies and we have two late round picks left that I didn't mock. We also have to remember that Carlos Henderson, Jake Butt and DeMarcus Walker are expected to contribute next year, according to the team. 

It would definitely not be a "win now" draft but it would be a "win from now on" draft. 

Those are fair assessments Jewell and Penny would help the most early on ILB & RB are easiest to help in year 1.  I do think for us to do this we’d have to beef up the OL which is why I’d do everything to keep 2.40 if we are trading away our 2019 1st so we can get a top 3 non-Nelson G/C who should be there. 

[jolly red giant]

3 hours ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

After the Bills move up twice, the top of the draft something like;

1. CLE - Allen

2. BUF - Darnold

3. NYJ: Mayfield

4. CLE: Chubb/Barkley

5. DEN: Chubb/Barkley/Nelson

6. NYG: Chubb/Barkley/Nelson

Forgive me if I missed something - but did Josh Rosen just fall off the planet ?

[Broncofan]

13 minutes ago, jolly red giant said:

Forgive me if I missed something - but did Josh Rosen just fall off the planet ?

Trust me, I'm right there with you lol.

But it's based on Klis' published top 5..which goes (IIRC not necessarily in order) Darnold, Allen, Mayfield, Chubb & Barkley.

No Rosen, no Nelson.  Which seems....nuts.   But we all know Klis doesn't get this stuff out of thin air.  It could be misinformation they want leaked, but it's definitely coming from Dove Valley.

[DiehardBronxFan]

Got no problem with that top 5. What’s the issue?  I get you guys don’t like Mayfield, and yet there are more than a few that believe he’ll be the best QB in the draft.  Rosen is almost certainly the most pro-ready of the 4 QB’s, and may also be the most likely to be out of the league due to injury in 5/6 year.  And Nelson is great - but - he’s a guard.  I can see people ordering these 7 5040 different ways.  But I would call that top 5 nuts.

[AnAngryAmerican]

4 hours ago, jolly red giant said:

Forgive me if I missed something - but did Josh Rosen just fall off the planet ?

BTW, the scenario I outlined was simply a "what if" the Giants move back with someone who would take a QB and leave us with two of the top-3 non-QBs on the board. In that scenario, Rosen would be available as well, obviously. 

But I'm with you.  For whatever the reason, Josh Rosen's stock seems to have taken a hit.  It could be the injury concerns - which @Broncofan and @broncos_fan _from _uk had an excellently informative exchange about here over the weekend - which are valid. It could be some of the noise, that seems have quieted down of late, about his personality. For what it's worth, I don't have any issue with his personality and I think concerns are bunk. I think Rosen would be a good pick, for us or any team that is in need of a QB, but the background noise seems to indicate a fall. 

Whatever the cause, it doesn't not appear right now that one of the teams drafting before us is being heavily linked to Rosen. The Browns have been linked most heavily to Darnold and Allen at No. 1. The Giants are rumored to like Darnold but it seems the noise points more towards them going for Saquon Barkley or trading down with someone who would take whichever one of Darnold and Allen the Browns pass on. The Jets are reportedly enamored with Mayfield (surprise, surprise if the dysfunctional Jets take a bust-in-waiting) but I have heard some, albeit very little, that they may go for Rosen. Cleveland isn't going to double-dip on QBs 1-4; they are the Browns, yes, but Dorsey is a competent GM and I expect him to come out of this draft with a very nice haul of players. 

[AnAngryAmerican]

2 hours ago, DiehardBronxFan said:

Got no problem with that top 5. What’s the issue?  I get you guys don’t like Mayfield, and yet there are more than a few that believe he’ll be the best QB in the draft.  Rosen is almost certainly the most pro-ready of the 4 QB’s, and may also be the most likely to be out of the league due to injury in 5/6 year.  And Nelson is great - but - he’s a guard.  I can see people ordering these 7 5040 different ways.  But I would call that top 5 nuts.

As far as the bolded, you know what those people all have in common? They're wrong. 

But moving on. 

The Klis top-five is interesting. Is it really the Broncos' top-five or is it a smoke screen? 

We know how well-connected Klis is and how he is willing to work as something of a mouthpiece for the organization. As a part-time journalist, I hate it, but truth be told that's big media these days - you trade favorable coverage for access (look at how the last and current White Houses have operated). 

There has been some smoke connecting us to Mayfield but we have been all over all four of the top QBs, when it all comes down to it Mayfield hasn't received any more attention in a meaningful way than any of the others when you really look at it - we went to all fours pro days, we invited all four to Dove Valley for private visits (or, in the case of Darnold, went to SoCal to conduct the private visit), we talked to all four at the combine, I wouldn't say that coaching Mayfield and Allen in the Senior Bowl portends those two over the other two. What is interesting is that the "media" outlets most all over the Mayfield-to-Denver story line are MHR and D-Mac at The Fan. Raise your hand if you have any respect for those entities or take what they have to say seriously. 

......crickets......

The only credible piece of information that we may have an interest in Mayfield at a level exceeding, even by a small margin, the other three is the assumption that he and Case Keenum have some similar traits as QBs - they're both under-sized, have below-average arm strength, played in gimmicky offenses in college and have improvisational ability. Yet, I've said this all offseason long, when old school guys like John Elway, Gary Kubiak, Bill Musgrave and Mike Sullivan are making the decision (while Matt Russel gets a another round), would they really go for a QB as unconventional and who is as much of a roll of the dice as Mayfield? I don't think so. But maybe that is wishful thinking. 

[thebestever6]

I still think Rosen is at the top of our list.  I also believe Allen is high up there. Its been said the way elway evaluates qbs has changed since peyton and the lynch debacle.  

I guess he values mental things, love of the game, coachability, leadership, a self starter, etc. I think Allen has the best combination of tangible and intangible  trait. I'm not sure accuracy can be improved.  Maybe not significantly but somewhat. I think Allen is our guy I just do. I think that,top 5 is to get buffalo to bite on a trade and step up an offer. Now,that them trading to 2 seems to be off the board.

[thebestever6]

John Lynch says there are 12 pro bowlers he sees at the top of this draft. I doubt he views all 4 qbs as pro bowlers.

If john elway views things in the same light you gotta think a second trade down is possible. Say we move from 5 to 12 for some picks. What can we get going from 12 to say 15? Another second?

[AnAngryAmerican]

8 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

I still think Rosen is at the top of our list.  I also believe Allen is high up there. Its been said the way elway evaluates qbs has changed since peyton and the lynch debacle.  

I guess he values mental things, love of the game, coachability, leadership, a self starter, etc. I think Allen has the best combination of tangible and intangible  trait. I'm not sure accuracy can be improved.  Maybe not significantly but somewhat. I think Allen is our guy I just do. I think that,top 5 is to get buffalo to bite on a trade and step up an offer. Now,that them trading to 2 seems to be off the board.

If Rosen is at the top of our list, we've done a damn good job concealing it. The points about being cerebral and winning from the pocket do apply to Rosen, but they also apply for Allen (37 on the Wonderlic) and Darnold as well. Everyone connected, both locally and nationally, seems to be under the impression that of the top-four QBs, Rosen is fourth on our list. On the Klis leak, both Rosen and Allen weren't mentioned. This leads me to believe that either what Elway said last week about winning from the pocket and being cerebral was a smokescreen or the Klis big board leak was a smokescreen because both are somewhat contradictory.