dawgdish Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 You can argue the merits of old school mostly sticking with your football gut, or with "moneyball" approaches until you're blue in the face. Either will work if you have a GM who bats better than average, turns up gems in every draft, and manages contracts and F.A. well. The fact is, we've done both approaches since 1999, and it's not that either approach is whats made us such a putrid football team, its the combined facts that we haven't drafted well (we've missed on high and low first rounders), haven't managed free agency well, and we've had horrible ownership that doesn't put the right Front Office team in place, then turns it over every two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FGK Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Quote Funny, " cannot measure heart, determination or what is in a prospect's mind" was being discussed on Canadian TV vs Analytics and Analyitics came up second best. They all agree that analytics can only tell you so much, but can never replace actual scouting and can never really predict success in a draft. That's not to say it isn't a useful tool in appraising prospects, but relying on it too much will get you nowhere. Almost every team has embraced Analytics, but I have not seen one team reduce its scouting department because of it and last I looked, every GM, scout and HC attend the Combine and a lot of pro days, suggesting that their are severe limits to how much you can get out of analytics and every team knows it. Of course, the statistical types will come out of the woodwork to support Analytics and statistical analysis as being the be all and end all of finding out anything, unfortunately, it just does not work that way. You actually summed it up best, "You can't measure heart." Get that weak stuff outta here man." Yeah, judging a prospect's heart, determination and what is in his mind, couldn't possibly be important to a statistician, but believe it or not, it is what makes most pros successful athletes after they show you their athletic ability. Well, if Canadian TV said it, I guess I can't argue... No @#$% sherlock. Every analytics person who is actually an analytics person values scouting and football knowledge. People who hate analytics just use that strawman to bash on a position that doesn't exist. Anyone who is into analytics knows that it has limits in any given age, but that doesn't mean you can't get an advantage by pushing the boundaries of where that knowledge can take you (Framing in baseball, OBP in baseball, 3-point shooting in basketball, heavy passing O's in the NFL, athletic thresholds in drafting, etc.) Quote Brownie believes 'moneyball' is a true story with no exaggerations, I mean, why would a movie ever exaggerate something, unless they want to make the movie more exciting, so they can sell more tickets. If moneyball works so well, how come Oakland has stunk for quite some time??? ... You need to learn about stuff before making assertions man. It's because EVERY OTHER TEAM IN BASEBALL ADAPTED THEIR IDEAS!!! Baseball and Basketball FOs are massive analytics engines at this point. Most good football teams are as well (as was seen in that ESPN piece where they looked at similarities in the last three drafts of the playoff teams). Quote There is nothing automatic about the draft, it is a complete crap shoot, but the percentages tell the story and by far and large, the better studs are found early in the draft, unless your GM stinks at his job. See, this just isn't true. You're acting like the curve is what the Jimmy Johnson chart says it is (you're as likely to get a stud with the #1 pick as with the #s 32-37 picks combined). But we can actually measure this stuff now, not just guess at it. And the value isn't that huge in difference (it's very different! But not that much). So trading down becomes a way to exploit an inefficiency with old school GMs that still think the talent difference looks like the Jimmy J chart. The key here is do you think you know better than every other GM in the NFL. Because if you do (as a GM) then sure, take the guy you want confident in the knowledge that you're smarter than everyone else. But if you realize that it's a crap shoot, then you look at past results and get the most possible potential value out of picks. And the thing is, that doesn't always mean trading down! Clearly last year they thought that the difference between Garrett and player #3 in the draft was not as big as the return they would've gotten from Chicago moving up. And my guess is that this year they will stick at one and take a QB. My issue is that you seem resistant to the idea that embracing analytics and pushing the boundaries of what we know right now could get us an advantage, which I just don't agree with at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 I've spent a while trying to figure out who most of you have been quoting/arguing with, and then it dawned on me: I have him blocked. Side note: The only time I've felt this free and alive is when I threw out ALL of our Tupperware this past summer and got new in its place. Organizing that stuff in cabinets became the bane of my existence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 @freakygeniuskid deserves all the likes today fellas, he's doing God's work trying to help that lost soul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, MWil23 said: The only time I've felt this free and alive is when I threw out ALL of our Tupperware this past summer and got new in its place. Organizing that stuff in cabinets became the bane of my existence. I thought you were married? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said: I thought you were married? HAPPILY. Here's the issue though: 1. It's Tupperware...HORRIBLE invention. I'd rather just be ignorant and willfully throw more stuff away and add to my carbon footprint by using plastic bags. 2. There's no way to organize it efficiently in a cabinet, especially with my Type A personality 3. My wife is 5'2, meaning Tuperware ends up on the top shelf, out of her reach. 4. Missing lids and stained plastic is enough to ruin one's day. Look me in the eye and tell me that I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 22 minutes ago, MWil23 said: HAPPILY. Here's the issue though: 1. It's Tupperware...HORRIBLE invention. I'd rather just be ignorant and willfully throw more stuff away and add to my carbon footprint by using plastic bags. 2. There's no way to organize it efficiently in a cabinet, especially with my Type A personality 3. My wife is 5'2, meaning Tuperware ends up on the top shelf, out of her reach. 4. Missing lids and stained plastic is enough to ruin one's day. Look me in the eye and tell me that I'm wrong. 1. Agreed. If not for my carbon footprint how will I be remembered? 2. I thought you were married, why are you in the cabinet? 3. How did she put it out of her reach in the first place? Busted! Stay out of the kitchen Suzy Homemaker. 4. Jesus, Mary and Joseph you are a delicate flower. Stained plastic? I'm looking you in they eye and telling you to go fix me a sammich Betty Crocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dawgdish Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 40 minutes ago, MWil23 said: The only time I've felt this free and alive is when I threw out ALL of our Tupperware this past summer and got new in its place. Organizing that stuff in cabinets became the bane of my existence. This is a borderline brilliant strategy. If I was DePodesta, I'd give you a job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 19 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said: I'm looking you in they eye and telling you to go fix me a sammich Betty Crocker. It would be delicious and you'd be begging me for another. I'd tell you that I'd teach you how to make it yourself because no way I'm making you another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 12 minutes ago, MWil23 said: It would be delicious and you'd be begging me for another. I'd tell you that I'd teach you how to make it yourself because no way I'm making you another. I'm just kidding, I don't need you to make me a sandwich. I'm married. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said: I'm just kidding, I don't need you to make me a sandwich. I'm married. LOL For the win Seriously though I’d youre foolish enough to put your wife in charge of meat you’re a giant disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, MWil23 said: LOL For the win Seriously though I’d youre foolish enough to put your wife in charge of meat you’re a giant disappointment. I taped instructions to the fridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaWg_LB. Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Random thought...... Do you know how HARD it is to have a top 10 D (top 4-8 vs the run most of the year).......an Oline with 1 HOF and 2 probowl caliber talents......decent TE and Running back, top 3 3rd down back in the NFL.......AND STILL be 0-12.......that baffles me.....(yes we STILL have a top 10 D.....) Like that almost takes effort.....and Intention.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaWg_LB. Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said: I taped instructions to the fridge. For a second I thought you said you taped your WIFE to the Fridge....LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, DaWg_LB. said: Random thought...... Do you know how HARD it is to have a top 10 D (top 4-8 vs the run most of the year).......an Oline with 1 HOF and 2 probowl caliber talents......decent TE and Running back, top 3 3rd down back in the NFL.......AND STILL be 0-12.......that baffles me.....(yes we STILL have a top 10 D.....) Like that almost takes effort.....and Intention.... @ditchdigger is completely on board with Hue throwing games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.