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Apollo Stallion

Texans Third Round

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I figured I'd narrow down some prospects at positions of need for our late Friday viewing pleasure, so we have something to complain about when they go off the board Thursday and early Friday.  I usually don't use Kiper as a source for early picks as both he and McShay fudge around with the 1st/2nd rounders order for drama, but by round three nobody but us wonks care anymore so he's as good as any for a raw list.  As a reminder we have the following picks Friday spread early, middle, late in round:

3rd Round (68th overall) - 4th in round
3rd Round (80th overall, from Seattle) - 16th
3rd Round (98th overall, compensatory) - 34th

We have 5 picks on day 3 including #103 (3rd in round), no 5th, 3 6th (3rd, 37th, 40th), and our last pick is #4 in the 7th. 

Going to break this up by position groups for easier reference with T, G, TE, OLB, CB, DE our most pressing needs early.  I expect us to grab QB, WR, RB depth on day 3.  We certainly have the ammo with 4 picks between 68 and 104 to move into the 2nd, but personally I'd rather see us stand pat and double up positions knowing 3rd-4th rounders are only going to have a 50% hit rate anyway (25% in the previous administration).  I'm fine with quantity over quality in middle rounds including taking upside risks.

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But first, some historical perspective...

Here is the sum total list of "starters" Rick Smith drafted in the 3rd round in 11 drafts (14 picks), so getting even ONE starter out of these 3 picks will be an improvement! NONE of these were 4 year starters for us, and Jacoby Jones was the only one to play for us in a 5th season and he single handedly de

  • 2014 - CJ Fiedorowicz (64th) - 42 starts
  • 2012 - Brandon Brooks (76th) - 44 starts
  • 2010 - Earl Mitchell (81st) - 17 starts
  • 2008 - Steve Slaton (89th) - 26 starts
  • 2007 - Jacoby Jones (73rd)  - 21 starts

50% of RS 3rd rounders made no or very little impact (B. Miller, Strong, Nix, B. Williams, S. Montgomery, Posey, Caldwell, Molden).  I'm giving D. Foreman the benefit of the doubt for his injury shortened 327 yards which included about 5 impressive plays out 80, but personally I see him somewhere between Ben Tate and Alfred Blue as a guy who can make some plays as a change up/late game clock runner and may even put in a few good injury replacement starts, but I think he'll always be more popular in fantasy projections and Texan fans who always fall in love with small sample size backups at skill positions.  The light may come on for B. Miller in year 3, but 34 rec / 261 yards 2 TDs is behind even Jaelen Strong 28 / 292 / 3 and both were useless on special teams which is inexcusable for #4/#5 WRs. Point is, keep expectations muted as historically for the Texans this has been a huge "tease" round that aside from B. Brooks has been almost entirely fools gold.

As a reminder, Casserly wasn't much better in the 3rd although the Erik Winston pick in 06 gave him a bigger hit with half the picks (7) but the tease factor was large with Antwon Peek, Seth Wand, and Charles Spencer (we got a game and a half anyway).  Bust factor was large as well with little/no impact from Charles Hill, Dave Ragone, and Vernand Morency (but Rick fixed that with the epic trade for Samkon Gado, right?).  Somehow Fred Weary managed to log 43 starts over 6 seasons in the era where the Texans regularly were fine starting players that wouldn't even get invited to camps after we didn't resign them, better yet cracking a roster or a lineup. 

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Posted (edited)

DE
71. Josh Sweat, DE, Florida State
73. Arden Key, DE, LSU
76. Sam Hubbard, DE, Ohio State
84. Jalyn Holmes, DE, Ohio State
85. Breeland Speaks, DE, Mississippi
87. Rasheem Green, DE, USC
91. Andrew Brown, DE, Virginia
96. Ade Aruna, DE, Tulane
97. Duke Ejiofor, DE, Wake Forest
98. Da'Shawn Hand, DL, Alabama

LB

93. Oren Burks, LB, Vanderbilt
94. Darius Leonard, LB, South Carolina State

Edited by Apollo Stallion

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Posted (edited)

Here's the guys rated for the 4th:

TE's

  • None

O-Linemen

Defensive Ends

OLBs

Cornerbacks

Edited by Apollo Stallion

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And the fun part or painful part as they come off the board.  2nd rounders that could fall or that we might need to trade up for.

Tight Ends

O-Lineman

DE

OLB

Cornerbacks




 

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So here's the quickie analysis.

Tight End

I'm starting to think THIS is where we'll end up with our first pick. There are basically 6 TEs rated between the 2nd and 4th and they are ALL at or above our slot.  After you get past Andrews, who I think will go in the 2nd, you drop all the way to mid-5th round w/ Chris Herndon (Miami).

O-Line

I'm actually feeling a bit better on our options here as there 5 guys rated as 3rd, 6 as 4th, and that's assuming all 11 rated in the 2nd go off the board.  If James Daniels, Iowa is still sitting around in the middle of the 2nd, he's a guy I'd burn the 3rd for and Connor Williams is tempting. No thanks on Orlando Brown. 

DE

An underrated need as of far as I'm concerned as I think we're nuts if we don't upgrade on Dunn/Covington/Heath/Blackson as options with or without JJ Watt.  Watkins should continue to develop, but he should really only be inside. There is solid value in the 3rd and little in the 2nd or 4th, so we seem to be in a sweet spot, ideally with #98 or #104.

LB

Probably the lowest of the 3rd-4th round needs as obviously with Cole/Scarlett, we've proven we can find quality here without expending too much draft capital.  However, what I'm looking for is more of a John Simon type who can also rush the passer as clearly we need better insurance against a Mercilus/Watt injury and to allow Clowney to more freely move from LB to DE. There isn't a whole lot of value that could slip from the 2nd and little straight up 3rd round value, but there is a nice size group of 4th rounders that could make sense at #98 or #104.

CB

Not much hope for any steals or even straight up 3rd round value with only 5 rated 2 or 3.  There is double that in the 4th, so again, a decent fit for the late 3rd/early 4th picks.  BTW - There doesn't seem to be much value in the middle rounds for safeties at all, so I suspect we're looking at another swing at backup safety in the 6th, so we better be thinking about how we're going to lock up Mathieu after he "proves it."

So basically, the way I see it, the first two picks have to be TE/Oline and personally I think go o-line again with the #98 or #104.  I'd look to best value at DE/OLB/CB for the other pick, prioritizing speed at CB even if it's raw.   QB is the only "must" in the 6th as far as I'm concerned, but I haven't settled a target other than NOT wanting JT Barrett or Kyle Allen.  Logan Whiteside strikes me as a Case Keenum level backup which beats Weeden or Webb.

 

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I think we are fine at guard. We have Jeff Allen, Zack Fulton, Senio Kelemete and Greg Mancz. We spent money there the last two off seasons, we should be fine at guard, and with Martin/Mancz we should be fine at center. maybe those guys suck, but we just paid to bring them in so I am assuming we ignore that position. 

Tackle is another story. Davenport is really unproven and could get our QB killed. Henderson was average at best and who knows what will happen with this guy. Beyond those two, its barren. we have the option of moving Kelemete or Allen whoever isnt a starting guard to RT but our depth sucks. I wouldnt mind drafting 2 tackles.

here's my position breakdown

3rd round: OT
3rd round: RB
3rd round: QB
4th round: OT
6th round: OLB
6th round: TE
6th round: DE
7th round: S

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Posted (edited)

I think we will end up Friday night with a 2nd and a 3rd round selection.  If an OL'man falls in round 2 Gaine will trade up.  Hopefully it is a tackle.  If we stay put and keep all 3 rounders I think we have to use one of the 3rd on a tight end.  Let's be real,  our TE core is one of the worst in the league.  Whoever we pick will easily be slotted as a starter IMO.  This is a deep CB class so hopefully we address that as well. I know we added Colvin, but we need to bring in another CB who can compete with Kevin Johnson and develop once Joseph finally leaves. I hope we address RB as well.  Miller will most certainly not be a Texan next season unless he has a major breakout year for us, and Foreman has to recover from his injury.  We could use a speed back who can catch passes and block out the backfield.

This is who I would draft with our 3rd rounders if we stay pat.

 

3rd round, 68th overall:  RB Rashaad Penny

3rd round, 80th overall:  OT Orlando Brown

3rd round, 98th overall:  TE Chris Herndon

BTW,  I will make the draft thread tomorrow morning. 

Edited by Texansfan713

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36 minutes ago, Texansfan713 said:

I think we will end up Friday night with a 2nd and a 3rd round selection.  If an OL'man falls in round 2 Gaine will trade up.  Hopefully it is a tackle.  If we stay put and keep all 3 rounders I think we have to use one of the 3rd on a tight end.  Let's be real,  our TE core is one of the worst in the league.  Whoever we pick will easily be slotted as a starter IMO.  This is a deep CB class so hopefully we address that as well. I know we added Colvin, but we need to bring in another CB who can compete with Kevin Johnson and develop once Joseph finally leaves. I hope we address RB as well.  Miller will most certainly not be a Texan next season unless he has a major breakout year for us, and Foreman has to recover from his injury.  We could use a speed back who can catch passes and block out the backfield.

This is who I would draft with our 3rd rounders if we stay pat.

 

3rd round, 68th overall:  RB Rashaad Penny

3rd round, 80th overall:  OT Orlando Brown

3rd round, 98th overall:  TE Chris Herndon

BTW,  I will make the draft thread tomorrow morning. 

That would be an amazing 3rd round for us, but i doubt Brown falls that far

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So, we've already had 3 players taken off my round 2-4 board although I always thought TE, Hayden Hurst, would go in the first and is an amazing fit in Balt.  The Pats reached slightly for G, Isaiah Wynn and the Bengals pulled a Bengal move and grabbed 3rd rounder, C Billy Price (amazing how his medical team sold him being ready to go despite a pec tear which cost our own Whitney Mercilus a full season - I predict a positive PED test before week 4),  As a reminder, I didn't include ILB, RB, or S on our board, so reaches for Vander Esch (37), Penny (57), and Terrell Edmunds (154!!!) aren't included.  

Daniels remains my dream pick, but I expect him to come off the board very early tonight.  Something tells me OT Jemarco Jones from Ohio St. could be the pick as the Texans have always worshipped Ohio St. Martinis Rankin from Miss St. also strikes me as a Texans type pick, but I'm hoping it would be at Guard as he sucks in space. Same story with Mason Cole who played LT and C at Mich and was a Captain.  Basically, I don't see a true starting tackle lasting until the 3rd, so I see us going with versatile guys who can play multiple positions on the line as the reality is that it's going to take two seasons to fix this line and I see T being our #1 need again next draft.  

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As for TE, if Mike Gesicki, Penn State is still around in the late 2nd, I can see us making a move to get him and I like him way more than Goedart, SDSU who most think is next up.  I'm not crazy about him as he's a terrible blocker, but he's the last of the O'Brien college recruits, so I can see Bill asserting himself now that he has a bit more personnel power.   Personally, I don't see too much more to like in him than Mark Andrews from OU, who I think is likely to still be on the board mid 3rd because he doesn't block either but isn't quite as fast.  Dalton Shultz, Stanford would be a solid pick with our late 3rd/early 4th as he's one of the few TE's who isn't a blocking liability which to me is critical with our tackle situation.  I'm not a fan of Ian Thomas or Jordan Aikens who Kiper has rated in the 3rd as they are smaller h-back types and we already have Stephen Anderson who is only an inch taller and 15 lbs heavier than Nuk.

Broncos, Cowboys, Dolphins, Lions, Saints, Eagles could all be looking TE in the 2nd-4th.

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