2018 Mock Draft, Season Projection, 2019 Offseason

[jetskid007]

RELEASED/RETIRED
Yrs	$	Name	Pos	Team
-	-	Muhammad Wilkerson	DL	NY Jets
-	-	Ben Ijalana	OT	NY Jets
-	-	Matt Forte	RB	NY Jets
FREE AGENCY
5	72.5M	Trumaine Johson	CB	LA Rams
4	27.4M	Spencer Long	OL	Washington
3	22.5M	Avery Williamson	LB	Tennessee
3	12M	Isaiah Crowell	RB	Cleveland
3	12M	Mike Pennel	NT	NY Jets
2	5.25M	Kevin Pierre-Louis	LB	Kansas City
2	3M	Terrance Brooks	S	NY Jets
1	10M	Josh McCown	QB	NY Jets
1	7M	Morris Claiborne	CB	NY Jets
1	6M*	Teddy Bridgewater	QB	Minnesota
1	4.5M	Terrelle Pryor	WR	Washington
1	2.5M	Ben Ijalana	OT	NY Jets
1	2M	Cairo Santos	K	Chicago
1	1.9M	Clive Walford	TE	Oakland
1	1.55M	Travis Swanson	OL	Detroit
1	1.2M	Brandon Copeland	LB	Detroit
1	1M	Andre Roberts	WR	Altanta
1		Thomas Rawls	RB	Seattle
1		Neville Hewitt	LB	Miami
1	880K	Xavier Cooper	DL	NY Jets
1		Dakota Dozier	OL	NY Jets
1		Bucky Hodges	TE	Minnesota
1	720K	Jonnothan Harrison	OL	NY Jets
1	2nd	Quincy Enunwa	WR	NY Jets
1	ROFR	Rontez Miles	S	NY Jets
1	ROFR	Brent Qvale	OL	NY Jets
1	Org	Neal Sterling	TE	NY Jets
1	ERFA	Eric Tomlinson	TE	NY Jets
1	ERFA	Lawrence Thomas	FB	NY Jets
1	ERFA	Doug Middleton	S	NY Jets

DAY ONE

Round 1

 

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With the 1^st pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the Cleveland Browns select... 

Sam Darnold, Quarterback, USC 

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With the 2^nd pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the New York Giants select... 

Saquon Barkley, Running Back, Penn State 

With the 3^rd pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the New York Jets select…

Josh Rosen, Quarterback, UCLA

One thing I learned in following the draft all this years is to expect the unexpected: as soon as everyone starts to assume something will happen, the opposite happens. The Jets aggressive play for a QB will turn out to be Josh Rosen, who the Jets felt was the 2^nd best player in the draft all along (behind Sam Darnold). When they made the trade in March, the Jets knew they would be selecting Darnold, Rosen, or Mayfield, but they didn’t have a final ranking at the time. While I have come around on the thought that the Jets traded up to 3 with the expectation that Mayfield would be the floor for that pick, I find it kind of odd that all of a sudden one of the most tight-lipped administrations in football are letting it out that Mayfield is a lock at 3… personally, I think a lot of the Mayfield chatter has leaked for two reasons: 1) Mayfield's camp is convinced he's going to get taken by the Jets, and 2) the Jets are not denying anything as a way to protect their real preference in the event he was to fall to them (say, Darnold), that way teams have to think twice before paying the ridiculous price to move up to #2. Best case, someone takes the 3^rd best player 1 or 2, which allows one of your top 2 players to fall to you with getting your 3^rd ranked QB at 3 being the work case scenario. I’ve felt that Rosen is the superior prospect and ultimate preference for Mike Maccagnan, who is seeking to balance the desire to land a passer with the potential to be a grand slam while still being somewhat of a safe pick. The consensus is that Rosen is the only passer in the draft who presents that possibility, which is why I still believe he will ultimately be our selection. Our front office values youth, intelligence, moxy, and potential – all things Rosen optimizes – and while I do think Bowles will favor Mayfield, I think Rosen's methodical personality is more similar to Maccagnan's. The key differentiator between the two is likely Jeremy Bates, who has a strong link with Rosen given his most recent offensive coordinator (Jedd Fisch) has worked with Bates both with the Broncos and Seahawks... if the Jets pass, it won't be a good look for Rosen. 

From a talent perspective, Rosen has a lot going his way: he throws with plus-accuracy and arm strength, can fit in any offense. He’s a traditional, cerebral pocket passer who seeks to dice you up with his arm, rather than make wow plays with his legs. I think too many people discount his athletic ability, as he tested out better than both Darnold and Mayfield in nearly every measure.  Josh has the high-floor/high-ceiling combo the Jets desperately need and can play right away if needed. He's matured over the past year and I think Christopher Johnson will be fond of him. I do think there will be a conversation between ownership and Rosen regarding his outspoken nature (especially considering that Woody Johnson works for the current administration), but I expect he’ll echo the same sentiments he’s been saying all offseason in that he’s going to avoid talking politics publicly. While I do think the concern of political alignment is real, it’s not like Rosen is the first “face of the franchise” that may have different political views than ownership, and I think Christopher Johnson has attempted to be as bipartisan as possible since taking over as CEO (see National Anthem issue). I do think Woody will need to give his blessing, but if CJ is in Rosen’s corner, Woody is not going to stop the team from drafting him. In regards to actual football matters, I think new OC Jeremy Bates has a respected voice at 1 Florham Park and will have a major say in which direction the Jets go at the position. There’s a lot of what Mayfield does that translates into Bates’ offense, but you can connect a lot of dots between the coordinator and Rosen as well. As mentioned above, UCLA's OC/QB coach Jedd Fisch was Bates' QB coach back in 2010 and coached together in DEN when Bates was QB coach/play-caller. Bates has always admired Jay Cutler, who many have compared as a similar personality match to Rosen given their high football IQ and misunderstood personalities (Bates, too, has the same MO). Bates and his wealth of football knowledge is a great fit for Rosen, who seeks to know more than many old school coaches are willing or able to share. Bates also can connect with Rosen off-the-field, considering he left the game he loves for 4 years to hike across the US. I don’t doubt there are many voices in Florham Park that will prefer Mayfield – especially Todd Bowles, who is more old school and may be turned off by the idea of dealing with Rosen – but I think he will consent as long as Bates is behind Rosen. As far as the most important voice in the Jets war room, I think Maccagnan’s history of factoring in overall skill level, potential, and age points to Rosen as a player he will prefer. Not coincidentally, Maccagnan attended 6 UCLA games this year, more than any QB in this year’s class.

A note on Mayfield: I get why a lot of Jet fans want him, and I do see how he fits in the offense. He has the kind of appeal that Joe Namath had (and kind of looks like him standing 6'1" with a strong arm and the handlebar mustache) which is nostalgic for Jets fans, especially those who lived during Namath's reign. All being said, my opinion of him isn't about whether I think he'll be a good player or not; I believe that Rosen's persona and upside are more bankable for this organization than Mayfield is. Mayfield personifies the identity we have on defense - he's a fiery competitor that celebrates in your face and has the ultimate "rah rah" style of leadership - but I feel the antithesis of that is needed on offense. We need a calm, cool, collected group led by a confident quarterback that can execute down-by-down, not a bunch of hot-heads looking to run through a brick wall. In my opinion, that style is not sustainable. Bottom line: since Maccagnan took over they have been the best in the league at keeping things close to the vest. Other than Cousins, no one knew their free agency plans and no one knew who they were planning on taking in each of the previous 3 drafts. Reading the tea leaves helps come up with a better idea of who they will target, but you can't say for sure whether they like one person more than another. I do think they have narrowed their selection is down to Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen, but I think the Jets will slightly prefer Rosen. I also think it would be a mistake to pick Baker over him, and while it could end up being a Jared Goff-Carson Wentz situation were both end up very good, I fear it could be more like passing on Dan Marino for Ken O'Brien. 

Maccagnan has a lot of luck drafting in the top 6 – 3 times having a top 2 player on our board fall to our pick – but hopefully this is the last time we’re drafting this high for a long time.

Best Comparable: Jay Cutler-meets-Peyton Manning

I want to be careful here: I’m not stating that I believe Josh Rosen will replicate the careers of Jay Cutler or Peyton Manning, but he has the kind of talent. Like Manning, Rosen is the type of QB where he can put a team on his back and win you games in spite of the team around him, but has more of Jay Cutler’s demeanor, personality, and occasional gun slinger mentality. He’s somewhere in between the two in terms of raw talent – not quite as athletic as Cutler, but more so than Manning; not quite as strong as an arm as Cutler, but slightly more so than Manning. If Rosen remains engaged, he can become a chess player at the position, essentially an offensive coordinator on the field, as he develops in one specific offensive scheme going forward and learns how to read and pick apart NFL defenses. Whether or not he's as committed to the game as Manning was will be the biggest indicator of his success, with his worst case being Jay Cutler if he stays healthy.  

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BONUS: Baker Mayfield

Best Comparable: Jimmy Garoppolo

It’s popular to compare Mayfield to Drew Brees, Russel Wilson, Case Keenum, and Doug Flutie because all are 6’1” or less, but all are very lazy comparisons in my opinion. If you watch the college tape and look at his playing style and physical makeup, he compares favorably to Jimmy Garoppolo. Both players came from college spread offenses, have quick releases, similar arm strengths and arm angles, are sneaky athletic that can throw well off base and on the move. If you watch tape of both, they have very similar body mechanics and muscle movement. Baker was more of a chaotic collegian player, but that had a lot to do with Jimmy being able to dominate all his opponents with ease at Eastern Illinois. Both have similar “raw” footwork – especially the back-foot screw in (which those in the Shanahan tree strongly prefer – that will need a little cleaning up in the pros for consistency but is mechanically sound. Both generate most of their power from their hips/legs while torqueing their bodies. Both will find success due to their ability to see the field extremely well and process quickly as opposed to winning the mental chess match (more “execution” QBs rather than “identification” QBs… need to be paired with a good offensive coaching staff that can maximize their abilities). 

They both have eerily similar athletic profiles as well, both on the shorter side but sturdy builds with the same size hands, and nearly identical BMIs (28.7 to 28.8), Ball Velocity (57-to-56), Shuttle (7.00-to-7.04), Broad jump (111-to-110), and vertical (29-to-30.5). 

Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t arrived yet, but he’s on the verge of becoming a very good QB in the NFL. The Jets would be thrilled if Mayfield can be that level of quarterback, however, I think it’s more likely he will fall somewhere on the Dak Prescott scale: extremely efficient, will make big plays here and there, will be regarded as a leader and will be popular with the media – but ultimately isn’t that elite-level quarterback who will make you a perennial contender regardless who you put around him.

 

DAY TWO

Round 3

TRADE: the New York Jets send the 72^nd pick to the Los Angeles Rams for pick 87 (3^rd round) and pick 111 (4^th round).

Maccagnan moves down in the 3^rd round again to much disappointment, as they bypass selecting an edge rusher (Ogbonnia Okoronkwo) and hand him over to the Rams on a silver platter. The Rams have become one of the most aggressive teams in the NFL, and with three 4^th round picks, they become a logical trade partner.

With the 87^th pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the New York Jets select…

John Kelly, Running Back, Tennessee

The Jets continue to bolster the offense with leadership and attitude by selecting John Kelly with their second pick. Kelly, a junior captain that teammates gravitated towards, is one of my personal favorite players in the draft class. While selecting a running back in the 3^rd round doesn’t make much sense given their pass rushing needs, Maccagnan is going to select the best player available and I think they’re going to love John Kelly. Although Kelly is not be the biggest guy – 5’10”, 216 lbs. – I’d argue he’s the toughest runner in the draft. He reminds me of Jarvis Landry/ArDarius Stewart in the sense that he’s an alpha-dog who may not be a top-notch athlete but plays with a level of competitiveness that rivals Baker Mayfield’s (seriously). He’s more athletic than his testing numbers indicate, is extremely balanced, an aggressive blocker, and a plus-pass catcher. He has some of the best footwork in the class (he credits it to skateboarding) and you can see some of the resemblances between he and Alvin Kamara... . Kelly, Crowell, Powell, and McGuire will compete for snaps in training camp. The Jets could keep all 4, but chances are Powell and McGuire will be competing for a roster spot.

Best Comparable: Frank Gore

Gore is one of my favorite running backs ever to play the game, as he is a consistent, tough, all-purpose running back. Kelly, who is built just like Gore, is more like post-injury Gore as a prospect 

both are soft-spoken but have that “alpha” mentality and seek to hit you in the mouth. They have very comparable skill sets, highlighted by their rare lower-body strength. Like Gore, Kelly is also a very instinctual who runs with leverage and phenomenal balance and control. Stating that Kelly can replicate the success Gore has had would be a laughable comment, but I think he can put together a string of Frank Gore-like seasons in the NFL and will be a very valuable asset as a pass blocker and pass catcher in the Jets new defense. For all those fantasy players out there, take Kelly late as a future keeper candidate, as he may be that surprise player who bursts on the scene for 2000 all purpose yards and 10 TDs in his second year.

 

DAY THREE

Round 4

With the 107^th pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the New York Jets select…

Derrick Nnadi, Defensive Tackle, FSU

Nnadi isn't a flashy pick, but again, he fits the theme of blue-collar defender with high character and captaincy status. He can contribute right away as a 1-2 down player, but should succeed McLendon as a full-time 2-down replacement in 2019. In the past, Nnadi would've been a borderline 2nd round pick due to his run defense alone, but as the NFL shifts to more of a passing league, he'll see his stock drop a bit. The Jets hosted Nnadi as a top 30 visit. 

 

With the 111^th pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the New York Jets select…  

Jeff Holland, Linebacker, Auburn

The Jets finally address their second biggest need on day 3. Holland is another try-hard pass rusher who isn't all that athletic, but knows how to wear defenders down. He produced big-time replacing Carl Lawson as a full-time player in 2017, but I don't think it'll be enough to get him drafted higher than the 4th since he lacks the athleticism teams require for the position. Team captain in 2017 as a Junior. He never took a visit with us, but we've been linked to him. 

 

Round 5 

With the 157^th pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the New York Jets select…  

Jalyn Holmes, Defensive Line, Ohio State

Holmes is often overrated because he is an Ohio State defender, but the truth is he has a ways to go. Holmes has all the talent you look for, but is very unrefined as a pass rusher. Kind of reminds me of Allen Bailey, so could see him go higher than this based on talent alone. Holmes kind of fills the void that Ealy leaves as a hybrid EDGE/DL who contributes on Special Teams. The Jets have a lot of connections to the OSU program. 

 

Round 6

With the 179^th pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the New York Jets select…

Jamil Demby, Offensive Line, Maine

 

Round 7

With the 235^th pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the New York Jets select…  

KC McDermott, Offensive Line, Miami

 

 

 

[jetskid007]

2018 NFL DRAFT SUMMARY

• 1(3)       Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
• 3(87)     John Kelly, RB, Tennessee 
• 4(107)   Derrick Nnadi, NT, FSU 
• 4(111)   Jeff Holland, LB, Auburn
• 5(157)   Jalyn Holmes, DL, OSU 
• 6(179)   Jamil Demby, OL, Maine
• 7(235)   KC McDermott, OL, Miami

[jetskid007]

RESERVED FOR 2018 SEASON: DEPTH CHART & RECORD PROJECTION

[jetskid007]

RESERVED FOR 2019 OFFSEASON

[Bobby816]

Great write up as always.

I’d love a draft scenario like this.

Interesting point on Kelly. I know both you and I noticed the trend from Macc's last years draft in high character, leader type guys early (Adams, Maye and Stewart were all big leaders for their teams). I see Macc doing the same with the 1st 2-3 picks this year as well. Nwosu is another guy I like at Edge that's a leader. I know you have talked about him as well.

[rampantjet]

I can dig it.  There are probably RB's that I would prefer in the 3rd over Kelly, he just doesn't excite me imo.  The rest is cool though.

[BlaZeN37]

Amazing effort as always. Where did you pull Mayfield’s velocity from? That number is different from the Ourlad ones, which were supposedly inaccurate. 

[jetskid007]

55 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

Great write up as always.

I’d love a draft scenario like this.

Interesting point on Kelly. I know both you and I noticed the trend from Macc's last years draft in high character, leader type guys early (Adams, Maye and Stewart were all big leaders for their teams). I see Macc doing the same with the 1st 2-3 picks this year as well. Nwosu is another guy I like at Edge that's a leader. I know you have talked about him as well.

The way this mock plays out, I'm assuming Nwosu, Turay, Carter, Sweat, and Ejiofor are all off the board by 72. It's such a weak edge class, but like offensive lineman teams will take shots on these guys during the 2nd round just because of the athleticism/position they play. I don't think Key will be on our draft board, and I think Armstrong goes somewhere between 73-87. 

Kelly is a RB I can see Macc really liking. He fits the ZBS really well, has the toughness and the skill, as well as leadership characteristics. Macc already expressed his love for this RB class unsolicited and we know he's all about taking the best players so I'd expect to see one land with us somewhere during round 3-4... my guess is the Jets will have Barkley/Guice/Michel/Jones/Johnson/Chubb/Penny rated ahead of him, but will feel very good about him later in round 3.

What's really important to note with Maccagnan is that he's always drafting players with an eye on next years "needs" - especially in rounds 2-4.  Kelly, Nnadi, Holland are direct replacements for Powell, McLendon, and Mauldin, who will all be FAs next year. 

he later round picks are kind of just dart throw "BPA" types who are raw but have characteristics that the Jets feel they can develop. 

[jetskid007]

8 minutes ago, BlaZeN37 said:

Amazing effort as always. Where did you pull Mayfield’s velocity from? That number is different from the Ourlad ones, which were supposedly inaccurate. 

I bought Dane Brugler's draft guide and his numbers are always the more accurate. 

[SDotNova]

I'd be happy with this. I like the write-up on both QB's. Really don't think we can go wrong with either of those QB's. I like the trade back and also think that's pretty reasonable to expect from this administration. I'm a big fan of Kelly just because of his stiff arm then there's all the stuff you wrote about. Dude has a vicious stiff arm. 

[jetskid007]

1 minute ago, SDotNova said:

I'd be happy with this. I like the write-up on both QB's. Really don't think we can go wrong with either of those QB's. I like the trade back and also think that's pretty reasonable to expect from this administration. I'm a big fan of Kelly just because of his stiff arm then there's all the stuff you wrote about. Dude has a vicious stiff arm. 

I truly feel he is the Jarvis Landry of RBs - just an extremely good football player who is going to be better than a lot of backs that get drafted ahead of him. I always do my mocks based on what I think/hear will happen, and while I haven't heard anything about him and the Jets he just reeks of a player this regime would draft. Might as well write "J-E-T-S" on his forehead. Can I say he will be a sure-fire great player? No, but it reminds me of that ArDarius Stewart pick last year... similar personalities, similar athletic profile, similar playing style, both from SEC, just play different positions. 

[rickyt31]

LOVE this. 

[KingOfNewYork]

Great work, I’m with all of this. 

[KimuraGod]

Great write up with amazing depth and detail as always. Thoroughly enjoyed reading it.

As for the draft, I’m in agreement that the rumours coming out about Baker don’t fit the blueprint of the tightlipped FO we’ve seen the last few years.

That makes me believe we are either hoping that teams don’t trade up to #2 (because they think we are taking BM) and will look to trade to #4 which will be much cheaper. Or in fact we want a team to trade to #2 taking BM and leave us with Allen/Darnold/Rosen and we get he guy we want. 

I love the Rosen pick. He’s my favourite qb followed closely by Darnold. If either one is wearing a Jets cap come Thursday night il be one happy man. 

I like going pass rusher but would rather we didn’t trade back in the third as a lot of the players we have brought in via FA are young and competitive which is a bonus and therefore imo I’d rather draft quality than quantity this year.

This will probably be a statement nobody else agrees with but after adding a lot of talent in FA who are young and offer big upside I’d actually trade up again in the third to secure our favourite second tier pass rusher. 

By adding talent at RB, TE and ILB they are positions I would of targeted in the 4-7 rounds. I’d now be more willing sacrificing a pick or two to get back int he second and get a Carter/Sweat/Nwosu or whoever we want.  

Anyway great mock and a fantastic read ??  

[jetskid007]

Thanks for the kind words- I honestly wanted to structure it a lot better + include a full 3-round mock but ran out of time. 

Going back to pick #3- I just have a feeling it will be Rosen or even Allen, simply because Mayfield has been linked so heavily. I asked my cousin who she felt the Jets and she responded Mayfield, citing that he has asked his agents to start seeking out marketing people in NY. What that told me was either the Jets told him he’d be their selection if on the board OR he’s willfully ignorant to the possibility that he won’t get drafted by the Jets....

Make no mistake: Baker and Rosen both want to be a Jet. In regards to Baker, I’ve been told he doesn’t want to sit behind Eli and he embraces the idea of playing in New York more than any other city in the country. Rosen has been more receptive to the idea of playing with the Giants because he describes the NFL as a marathon, not a sprint.