Studying Traits Predictive to Success Relative to Draft Position

[Kent Hullamania]

Looking over the last 5 to 10 years of drafts, and what players over performed and under performed their draft position. There are of course many variables at play, a limited sample size and substantial variance. The limited sample size demands  looking at more draft years for some positions, and keeping the criteria as simple as possible. The traits were determined not by me, but by looking at scouting reports, mostly via NFL.com draft player profile. Only pre draft scouting reports were considered. I have yet to study TE and Safety. Again, this is traits based on out performing draft position, not the only things that matter.

2018 Results:

QB:

(Plus Accuracy, Plus Intangibles, At least a minimum arm strength, No weakness in decision making, internal clock, or ability to work through progressions) 

Baker Mayfield, Logan Woodside

RB:

(Quickness, Ability to create yards after contact)

Darius Guice

Ronald Jones

Roc Thomas

WR: 

(High level production, plus ability after the catch)

Calvin Ridley

DJ Moore

Anthony Miller

James Washington

Dante Pettis

Cedric Wilson

Michael Gallup

Daurice Fountaine

J’Mon Moore

OL

(Plus Balance and Feet without weak anchor or demeanor OR Plus demeanor without weak power and either without weak punch or feet)

Quenton Nelson

Will Hernandez

Billy Price

Isaiah Wynn

James Daniels

Connor Williams 

Tony Adams

Brad Lundblade

Jacob Ohnsorge

Wyatt Teller

DT

(High level production, plus quickness and penetration OR plus run stuffing two gapper over 315 lbs that doesn’t have conditioning concerns) 

Maurice Hurst

Vita Vea

PJ Hall

Edge

(Plus hands, pass rush moves, ability to shed, or keep blockers off without being weak in those areas or in ability to counter/disengage)

Bradley Chubb

Josh Sweat

Sam Hubbard

Marcel Frazier

Duke Ejiofor

Marcus Martin

Garrett Dooley

Javon Rolland Jones

CB

(Physical in coverage, and not weak in tackling or run support)

MJ Stewart

Duke Dawson

Tarim Johnson

Dee Delaney

Brandon Facsyon

Heath Harding

Davonte Harris

Karim Moore

Malik Reaves

Off Ball LB

(Plus range, plus tackling)

Note: the league appears to have caught up to this one, so it will be interesting to see if the key traits change

Roquan Smith 

Darius Leonard

Tremaine Edmunds

Leighton Vander Esch

Rashaan Evans

Christian Sam

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[taylor made]

Are these guys listed in order of how you would rank them?

[Kent Hullamania]

So...kind of. The idea is not really to use the traits to rank them so much as provide a “filter” of sorts on top of their rankings to find guys at any part of the draft. But they are ordered in a general sense how I might assume a teams big board might order them. Not married to the order at all though. 

Id like to add Rosen to the list also I think. The scouting report I used knocked his decision making as “hero ball” but given his defense it’s justified imo. And other scouting reports laud his decision making. He’s a tough call on the intangibles too, no consensus there, but everyone seems to agree his football IQ is up there. But that highlights how even trying to make this simple ends up I. Gray area and allows biased judgement to seep in. 

[MD4L]

An underrated trait of a receiver is the ability to make contested receptions.