Baldy's Final Mock v2.0 - Elway's working overtime on Thursday night.

[BaldyBronco]

I am going big with my final Mock.  My ultimate belief is there is no way this happens, but it should give us something to consider in terms of what is possible if Buffalo plays ball and in fact goes all in on a QB, that this can be set in motion. If Elway and Kubiak are fully engaged in the entire process, they can utilize the Bills desperation to pick up premium capital in this years draft. I envision this all happening in real time during the draft.  I expect the Broncos to actually get on the clock at 5 when the Bills trade happens and to simultaneously/immediately be working to get back up the board.

We can for sure argue about whether the picks are to rich or that future year picks or the price of what I propose being too high/low.  But I base everything here on the DRAFT VALUE points and none of the trades are skewed too far in favor of one team or another.

***TRADE!!! w/ Buffalo Bills***

Buffalo get:

1.5 (1700)

4.106 (84)

3.99 (115)

3rd in 2019 (250)

Broncos get:

1.12 (1200)

1.22 (780)

2.56 (340)

Skinny:  The Bills moves to this point are clear.  They want to get up for their QB of the future.  They are in the worst position as any NFL Team at the QB position.  I feel like this is, behind te fact that we stay at 5, the most likely outcome for the Broncos.  As my next move shows, the draft capital they receive puts them in a very favorable position for the remainder of Thursday night.

 ***TRADE!!! w/ Tampa Bay Buccaneers***

Broncos get:

1.07 (1700)

Tampa get:

1.12 (1200)

2.40 (500)

Skinny:  We use the additional draft value points (See below) to move back up to 7 and position ourselves for the BPA on the board.  Tampa Bay fans are talking about being the trade partner for Buffalo for 1.12 and 22.  The Bills get to hump the leg of their QB and Tampa Bay will still get one of the 3 DB's they seem to covet.  The Broncos hit the clock 20 minutes later than expeted with an extra pick in Round 1 and lose 16 places in Round 2.  The result of of all these moves nets the Broncos on paper (3147-2754) 393 points on the draft value chart.  Which equates to an additional second round pick (2.51 effectively), so it adds up and illustrates what is possible.

 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

The Denver Broncos 2018 Draft Selections:

1.7

1.22

2.56

3.70

4.112

5.149

5.160

The 2018 NFL Draft - Top 7 Picks

 

1.1   Cleveland Browns : Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

The fear of God is put in the Browns by the Giants and they slightly panic and pick Barkley.  A franchise desperate for a superstar who can be a face for the franchise is just too much to risk losing.  The difference in the 4 QBs is not enough and the Browns are willing to take what’s left, to assure Barkley is a Brown  This pick is a huge risk as #1 money will set this franchise back another decade if he, as RBs do has a major injury.   In the end of the process, the best player in the draft is taken at the top.

1.2  New York Giants: Sam Darnold, QB, USC

The Giants are a rebuilding team and can see the writing on the wall that there is a very good chance that a top 10 pick in 2019 to add more core talent.  Meanwhile, knowing that Eli is in the twilight of his career and looking at the potential QB solutions in 2019, they make the move to put a very young Sam Darnold behind an All-Pro Veteran and set the future puzzle piece of a successor franchise QB in training.  A team like this with many holes is a prime target to trade back to pick up assets for the future.  The QB frenzy will hinge on what the Giants do here.  This pick is very valuable, and IMO even more valuable than 1.1.  There are many scenarios of several teams who have graded the QBs and see the future of their franchise here.  Once the #2 pick is made.  The NFL draft begins

1.3  New York Jets: Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

The Millennial Broadway Joe comes to town #bakerchallenge.  We all love to give the Jets the guy with a big personality and ego.  So; I will just fall in line.  The fact is this pick is a QB and whatever name comes off the board here, one less will be available and the franchise QB Hail Mary run has begun.

1.4  Cleveland Browns: Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

Josh is the right fit for the Browns.  His personality and character will make him a successfully personality in the historically land of lost toys in Cleveland.  I feel that pairing together Barkley and Allen gives the Browns two players who can begin to be the foundation of a team that can compete in the coming years.  Allen is a risk, but I feel Cleveland looks at the other QB’s as a potential problem given their ego/personalities.

1.5 Buffalo Bills: Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

Buffalo figures out that several teams are calling, including Miami, Arizona and using their substantial draft capital, invest a premium in getting to 5.  The Buffalo Bills complete the quadfecta. Elway convinces Brandon Beane that this is the time and the heavy price is worth it to get the most NFL ready QB in the draft.  I do not believe that Buffalo feels like Rosen is the best QB in the draft, but he is better than any options they will find in the future.

1.6  Indianapolis Colts: Bradley Chubb, DE, N.C. State

The Colts are in the right place at the right time and the QB run makes this pick automatic.  The Colt front office sprints to the podium to make the pick for a guy that Von Miller compares to self and Khalil Mack.  Potentially the best player in the draft, Indy assures a B in grading their draft regardless of how the remainder plays out.

1.7 Denver Broncos: Quentin Nelson, OG, Notre Dame

Elway dances around the board and ends up adding what essentially gives up two spots (1.5 for 1.7) and 3.99 and 4.106 and a future pick and add 1.22, to land right back in a spot to pick the 2nd best player in the draft at a position of epic need.  The Broncos ultimately decide the price to pay to move up to get the QB they see as the future, as Elway is known to do and figure out a plan B in drafting a QB later in the draft.  Trading down also gives us the potential still to draft a QB if things fall differently.

 Alternate Picks: Bradley Chubb, DE NC State; Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming; Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State

The remainder of the Denver Broncos Draft:

1.22 Taven Bryan, DT, Florida

Bryan fits the Broncos scheme perfectly.  He is a high motor, high effort guy.  A Wyoming native and son of a Navy Seal.  I am working under the uncertainty about Adam Gotsis and wear and tear on Derek Wolfe as potentially big.  Taven kills two birds and gives us depth and youth at the position that is critical to the defense clicking again. If AG's problems go away, this pick could be LVE.

Alternate picks: Jaire Alexander, CB Lousiville; Marcus Davenport, DE UTSA; Isaiah Wynn, OG/OT, Georgia; Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State; Derrius Guice, RB, LSU

 2.56 Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia

With the release of CJ., the Broncos must address the RB position early.  Chubb is my #3 rated RB.  This is the 2nd of three early draft picks to help build around the revamped offense and upgrade at QB in Keenum.  To offset that lack of elite playe at QB position, we go with a back that will contribute immediately and compliment Vonte Booker and D'Angelo Henderson.  His ability to share the load with Sony Michel gives him the mental make up to rotate with Booker and create a one two punch.  Our running game in now complete.

 Alternate Pick: Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M; D.J. Chark, WR LSU; Austin Corbett, OG, Nevada;

 3.70 Michael Gallup, WR, CSU RAM NATION

This pick needs to be a play maker on offense assuming we use our first three picks in the trenches and running game. I had the honor of watching this kid as a season ticket holder.  One of the things we did before every game was hang out in the New Belgium end zone where we could get up close and personal with the kids as they warmed up.  I was struck by how professional and focused he was.  It was something that stuck with me and my biggest fear is that another team falls in love with him and nabs him before this pick.  I know he is on the Broncos radar and know they will take him in the 3rd or 4th round. 

Alternate Pick: Matines Rankin, OL, Miss State; Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State

4.113 Kyle Lauletta, QB, Richmond

We take a QB to assure that if the Lynch Kelly story fails as is likely, that we have a developmental player in the QB room.  There is a lot of buzz around this kid suddenly, so I am likely wrong with this pick.  There will be a team in my opinion that reaches for him. 

Alternate Pick: Luke Falk, QB, Washington St; Mike White, QB; Western Kentucky; Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, Notre Dame; Deontay Burnett WR, USC

5.149 Durham Smythe, TE, Notre Dame

The lack of a passing game keeps Durham under the radar.  He can block and act as an athletic body to aid in run protection.  I watched a bunch of tape on Jake Butt and have been following him on social media, he will emerge as a go to pass catcher and Smythe will be a good option to add that 6th OL in the run game.  Good value in the 5th round

5.160  Josey Jewell, ILB, Iowa

Some have Josey gone by now, but I love the thought of drafting a 2nd LB in this class that can contribute on ST and learn from the guys in front of him.  This is my poor man LVE and I know @AnAngryAmerican and I agree on this guy. 

[AKRNA]

That'd make me pretty happy. Nice to see a few mocks drafting "meat and potatoes" guys.

Love the first three picks. Keenum would be quite happy with a draft like this.

[Broncofan]

I'd have no objection to this save two - LVE instead of Bryan at 1.22, only because I don't see Jewell falling that far.    We're talking late Rd5 at 160.

I also think Lauletta isn't making it past Day 2, the 2019 draft class is so meh, teams will value guys like him & White for Rd3.

Don't mind the result, though - just don't think we'll get so many of our targets to fall.   Nelson, Chubb, Gallup & Smythe are well-placed.

[Epic]

Just add a Tackle in there as we need depth and OL takes a beating year in and year out.  Otherwise, very solid. 

[AKRNA]

Just now, Epic said:

Just add a Tackle in there as we need depth and OL takes a beating year in and year out.  Otherwise, very solid. 

I hear ya there. We're in a great spot to redshirt an OT this year and let him develop. We really do need two picks on the OL.

[BaldyBronco]

2 minutes ago, Epic said:

Just add a Tackle in there as we need depth and OL takes a beating year in and year out.  Otherwise, very solid. 

We could drop Taven Bryan and Put Mike McGlinchey in there? LOL I like Martines Rankin and he is a good option.  I think we can get our depth at Tackle from our current roster and a veteran casualty later this yea

[7DnBrnc53]

It sounds like Denver's big 3 is Darnold, Mayfield, and Chubb. So, if Chubb is the only one left, Denver takes him instead of trading down.

[AKRNA]

5 minutes ago, 7DnBrnc53 said:

It sounds like Denver's big 3 is Darnold, Mayfield, and Chubb. So, if Chubb is the only one left, Denver takes him instead of trading down.

Where'd you hear that?

[broncofan48]

Just now, AKRNA said:

Where'd you hear that?

I saw it on MHR so grain of salt

[BaldyBronco]

2 hours ago, broncofan48 said:

I saw it on MHR so grain of salt

It's all over Mile High Report.  I am going obviously under the assumption they are correct, outside of Chubb.  I think the likely hood is I am wrong on one QB and he won't make it to 5.

[Broncofan]

39 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

Where'd you hear that?

Klis also confirmed the top 5 with Barkley / Allen added in yesterday but not in specific order.   I know you saw it but repeating for the group convo. 

I mean it could all be smokescreen.   But they are being airtight in consistency if it is.  

[AKRNA]

I've already given a long list of reasons I don't believe Elway will draft a QB at 5. yesterday we got another one.

I was a bit surprised when Harris spoke out against a QB. He's the ultimate team guy and Bronco and I don't think he'd ever criticize the FO. That said, I doubt he'd be on record like that if he wasn't supporting the FO and what may be an unpopular choice, IE: the best player available, non QB that will help immediately. Just seems he may be providing a bit of insight into the FO thought process.

[elliot878]

7 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

I've already given a long list of reasons I don't believe Elway will draft a QB at 5. yesterday we got another one.

I was a bit surprised when Harris spoke out against a QB. He's the ultimate team guy and Bronco and I don't think he'd ever criticize the FO. That said, I doubt he'd be on record like that if he wasn't supporting the FO and what may be an unpopular choice, IE: the best player available, non QB that will help immediately. Just seems he may be providing a bit of insight into the FO thought process.

I agree on Harris.  I read the MHR article with his comments, and the writer calling him "short-sighted."  Laughable. Harris window, and all his teammates window isn't going to be open too much longer, of course they want players that would help win immediately.  I love seeing the guys who clearly couldn't stand playing on a loser last year. 

 

I like the draft, the maneuvering is something I mocked weeks back.  I'd love to pick at 7 while keeping 22!

[7DnBrnc53]

59 minutes ago, broncofan48 said:

I saw it on MHR so grain of salt

I think I heard it on the NFL Nation mock draft last night from Jeff Legwold (before he made that stupid Denzel Ward pick at 5).

[broncofan48]

Just now, 7DnBrnc53 said:

I think I heard it on the NFL Nation mock draft last night from Jeff Legwold (before he made that stupid Denzel Ward pick at 5).

Oh I'm not discrediting at all, I just know MHR is full of fluff pieces so I try not to ever get news from there.  This year feels different, Elway always telegraphs it seems like, and with information out there that were going to take all sorts of players, from Darnold to Ward, something doesn't add up.  Can't shake the feeling that somethings brewing in Dove Valley