Packers Forum 2018 NFL Draft Discussion (NO SPOILERS!)

[cannondale]

I had a hunch we wouldn't go Edge (in the first) and I think Gute was right for not reaching for one.

- A rookie edge was not going to supplant CM3 or Perry anyway. Yes, he may have gotten snaps, but essentially it would have been wasting year 1 of his contract. I'm sure Gute also wants to trust his Biegel pick and wants to make sure he gets a long look. Who knows, maybe we got something there. I'm sure his measurables probably matched up pretty well with the guys we passed on, so why bother

- A good rookie Edge can contribute right away, so next year would be soon enough - barely

- We have an extra 1st rounder next year. We can maneuver to get an elite guy. Plug him in immediately and maximize production and the 5 year control

- Anyone have a feel how Biegel would have stacked up against this years class ?

 

[Leader]

58 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

This was a MISERABLE EDGE class.  But given how strong last year's was, it's not really surprising that this year's EDGE class was bad.  You had three guys who were a tier above the rest, and one of them had injury concerns (Landry) and the other had LoC cocnerns (Davenport).  Beyond those two and Chubb, they all had major question marks.  Sweat had MAJOR medical concerns, Key had the rehab/motivation questions, etc.  You could group the rest of the EDGE into two tiers.  The try-hards (i.e. Jeff Holland, Duke Ejiofor, etc.) and the ones who had the tools, but never put production consistently (Lorenzo Carter, Arden Key, etc.).  There were no real EDGE of value that'd make a difference.

Agreed - but for complete understanding: LoC?

Lack of competition?

[chillparsi1]

14 minutes ago, Leader said:

Agreed - but for complete understanding: LoC?

Lack of competition?

Level of competition?

[Leader]

2 minutes ago, chillparsi1 said:

Level of competition?

Okay - that would work as well.

[Greg C.]

Weird draft. I'm going to need some convincing on this one. The theme seemed to be that the new GM is starting over. He did a do-over with the secondary after the disaster of the 2015 CBs, and he did a do-over of last year's late-round WR picks. He traded away value in this year's draft to get more value in next year's draft. It was a sound move on paper, but questionable for a team with an aging QB that should want to win now. And to not take an OLB until the 7th round was just unbelievable, after so many years when that position has been virtually ignored by the Packers in the higher rounds of the draft. Drafting a punter was another head-scratcher, when our rookie punter last year did such a good job. I sure hope Gutekunst knows what he's doing. 

It was a very Thompson-like draft, which somehow made it seem all the more like a reprimand of Thompson's recent drafts. As always, we will have to wait two or three years to see how it turns out. 

[Kepler]

4 hours ago, JBURGE25 said:

We have two firsts so we can actually move up and get WR1 next year 

Or a top 5 guard right guys? 

[CalhounLambeau]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bu7VCs3ld5efCR3fDjj_vM09KjYbY_SBDkdJHRJPOew/edit?usp=sharing

My new 2019 NFL Draft Database is up. Might be of use to some of you. Thanks. 

[TransientTexan]

4 hours ago, CWood21 said:

This was a MISERABLE EDGE class.  But given how strong last year's was, it's not really surprising that this year's EDGE class was bad.  You had three guys who were a tier above the rest, and one of them had injury concerns (Landry) and the other had LoC cocnerns (Davenport).  Beyond those two and Chubb, they all had major question marks.  Sweat had MAJOR medical concerns, Key had the rehab/motivation questions, etc.  You could group the rest of the EDGE into two tiers.  The try-hards (i.e. Jeff Holland, Duke Ejiofor, etc.) and the ones who had the tools, but never put production consistently (Lorenzo Carter, Arden Key, etc.).  There were no real EDGE of value that'd make a difference.

Agreed. Fans seem to be mistaking activity for achievement. Just because you draft some guy with the letters ‘OLB’ next to his name doesn’t mean he would be good enough to actually fix the need at OLB. Seems people would rather just “check a box” at XYZ position and have a 10% chance addressing an edge need than a 50% chance at addressing a CB or other need. Get the best value player for the draft slot. You never know when injuries or regressions will create new needs. And if, heaven-forbid, you get a surplus of good players at one position, some could be traded to address other needs.

[Chili]

42 minutes ago, CalhounLambeau said:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bu7VCs3ld5efCR3fDjj_vM09KjYbY_SBDkdJHRJPOew/edit?usp=sharing

My new 2019 NFL Draft Database is up. Might be of use to some of you. Thanks. 

Awesome. Have you considered putting additional columns for each measurement statistic? it would make filtering alot easier and help figure out which players meet our athletic thresholds.

[CWood21]

4 hours ago, chillparsi1 said:

Alexander straight to Randall's number too!

2 other thoughts:

1. Between Moore, MVS, and EQ, we just increased Aaron Godgers chances of hitting another hail mary. J'Mon has a 38" vert!
2. The CB room now stands at: King, House, Tramon, Alexander, Jackson, Rollins + some others. Am I the only one who thinks that one of Tramon or House doesn't make the roster? Just seems like one of them is going to lose out to one of the younger guys and just not be worth the money/demand a release. 

Tramon is about as close to a roster lock as you can get.  The Packers would save only 375k by releasing him, and then once you count the top 51 rule, they're actually going to pay more money to replace him.  Plus, he's the veteran presence in the group so there's like a less than 1% chance he gets release.  Tramon, King, Alexander, and Jackson are mortal locks to be on the opening day 53.  The last two spots are up for grabs though.  House is in jeopardy of not having a spot.

[CWood21]

4 hours ago, cannondale said:

I had a hunch we wouldn't go Edge (in the first) and I think Gute was right for not reaching for one.

- A rookie edge was not going to supplant CM3 or Perry anyway. Yes, he may have gotten snaps, but essentially it would have been wasting year 1 of his contract. I'm sure Gute also wants to trust his Biegel pick and wants to make sure he gets a long look. Who knows, maybe we got something there. I'm sure his measurables probably matched up pretty well with the guys we passed on, so why bother

- A good rookie Edge can contribute right away, so next year would be soon enough - barely

- We have an extra 1st rounder next year. We can maneuver to get an elite guy. Plug him in immediately and maximize production and the 5 year control

- Anyone have a feel how Biegel would have stacked up against this years class ?

The problem with EDGE is they're usually not a Day 1 producer.  Certain positions translate easier to the NFL as rookies, EDGE players usually aren't those.  Obviously, you have the freak ones who can produce as rookies but most EDGE prospects aren't going to be impact players as rookies.  You're wanting to see that jump from Year 1 to Year 2.  As for Biegel, I'm optimistic that he can be that EDGE3, but I'm not wanting to hold my hopes.  I hope he comes into camp as EDGE4.

[CWood21]

38 minutes ago, TransientTexan said:

Agreed. Fans seem to be mistaking activity for achievement. Just because you draft some guy with the letters ‘OLB’ next to his name doesn’t mean he would be good enough to actually fix the need at OLB. Seems people would rather just “check a box” at XYZ position and have a 10% chance addressing an edge need than a 50% chance at addressing a CB or other need. Get the best value player for the draft slot. You never know when injuries or regressions will create new needs. And if, heaven-forbid, you get a surplus of good players at one position, some could be traded to address other needs.

I was pretty vocal last year that I thought the Packers should have taken TJ Watt over Kevin King.  And I hope I'm wrong and that Kevin King becomes a shutdown corner.  But you're not going to get very many chances to draft quality pass rushers.  They go early and often.

[Leader]

1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

Tramon is about as close to a roster lock as you can get.  The Packers would save only 375k by releasing him, and then once you count the top 51 rule, they're actually going to pay more money to replace him.  Plus, he's the veteran presence in the group so there's like a less than 1% chance he gets release.  Tramon, King, Alexander, and Jackson are mortal locks to be on the opening day 53.  The last two spots are up for grabs though.  House is in jeopardy of not having a spot.

Yup.

[cannondale]

1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

The problem with EDGE is they're usually not a Day 1 producer.  Certain positions translate easier to the NFL as rookies, EDGE players usually aren't those.  Obviously, you have the freak ones who can produce as rookies but most EDGE prospects aren't going to be impact players as rookies.  You're wanting to see that jump from Year 1 to Year 2.  As for Biegel, I'm optimistic that he can be that EDGE3, but I'm not wanting to hold my hopes.  I hope he comes into camp as EDGE4.

I'm gonna disagree on that one. I'm talking about an elite edge we trade up for. Kind of like running back - either you can or you can't. See TJ Watt. Of course improvement happens, but we can get by with that scenario - not like we have a choice

[packfanfb]

2 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I was pretty vocal last year that I thought the Packers should have taken TJ Watt over Kevin King.  And I hope I'm wrong and that Kevin King becomes a shutdown corner.  But you're not going to get very many chances to draft quality pass rushers.  They go early and often.

I like King, but how different would our front look with Watt and Lawson going into year 2? I was pounding the table for Lawson when we took Adams and then I pounded even harder when we took Biegel.