Official Broncos Forum Draft Thread

[paul-mac]

7 hours ago, germ-x said:

I’m going to go on a bit of a rant here and it’s nothing against you or anyone else, just my whole feeling on the concept of selecting BPA and I’ve been saying this for a few years.

The concept of drafting pure BPA always sounds great.  Fans always talk about it and teams always spew it pre and post draft.  The fact is, no one, even the vast majority of fans would do it come draft day.

NFL teams select BPA at a position of need.  Literally every single one of them does this. There may be an instance here and there where it doesn’t happen, but 95% of the time they’re selecting BPA at a position of need.

I completely get this, but as you mentioned, well when the board and differences between players gets tighter then you have to adjust.  Basically that’s saying take the BPA at a position of need depending on how the board is falling.  

In the case of Michael Gallup, if one thought he’d be available at #99 or #106 it should be because that’s where he fell on the board.  I am fully on board with draft manipulation, but it’s incredibly contradictory to say, “well I want this guy at #99, but if WRs start to go I’ll take him at #71.”  If Michael Gallup is really that good and is available at #71 you’d just take him regardless and not play the game, that’d be taking pure BPA.

Further, the fact is, especially as fans, we don’t know how the board is going to fall.  In the case of the Broncos it actually looks terrific based on what we know now.  Chubb was an unreal pick, they got the most projectable outside WR and red zone threat, a bell cow RB, a bigger and projectable CB, and a chance at Crosby and Jewell at #106 & #113 and MANY in this forum would’ve been fine with Crosby at #40 and Jewell at #71 (which looking at now that they’re  still available would’ve been laughable picks in those spots).  

 

 

To be fair though Bradley Chubb was a purely BPA pick 

[Broncofan]

33 minutes ago, paul-mac said:

To be fair though Bradley Chubb was a purely BPA pick 

Yup.  BPA is a concept that only applies when a significant gap in talent exists.   If there is no gap in talent (or it’s so small it’s meaningless) then other reasons are justifiable.   Why it matters a lot in Rd 1 because you see teams reach for need and take a guy a full tier (or 2) talent wise all the time.   I don’t think you will find many ppl who think Denzel Ward was a BPA choice at 1.4 but one driven by CLE’s need.  

In our case BPA would have argued Nelson vs.  Chubb vs.  Barkley.   TBH on pure talent you could have argued for all 3.     Chubb was clearly the best D guy.   So to be fair to @germ-x he might counter that the value of DE/EDGE over RB/G might have influenced that BPA assessment.   Which is a very fair point.   But in the end we know Chubb was Elway’s BPA since his top 3 was Darnold / Mayfield / Chubb. 

For 1.5 and usually Rd 1-2 (unless the draft pool really sucks / is great) the BPA exercise counts for a lot.   As we go down the list - not so much.   By now it’s almost non-existent, there’s no huge gap in talent / risk, except for a few guys falling for medical / legal / character reasons.   

[DiehardBronxFan]

Driving all day yesterday so didn’t get to watch or post.  Was listening on the Radio - was SOOOO stoked when Williams and Goedert fell to us - felt like day 1 with Chubb all over again.  Too good to be true.  Ah well.  

I definitely like this draft,even if I don’t love it.  Elway is doing what we’ve asked him to do.  And even if he isn’t masterfully playing the board, he IS sticking to his Board.  I’ll guarantee you this is NOT the way they expected things to fall.  They were going to trade down, but took Chubb when there due to value.  I seriously doubt they were going to go WR in Rd 2, but Sutton, a guy with a Rd 1 grade that checks all the boxes (great, great guy, BTW), was there and they adjusted.  Felt like he may have gotten a little desperate for RB at the top of the 3rd, but nothing at all wrong with Freeman there.  

So, happy, and glad to see Elway going for guys with production and sticking to value instead of reaching for his guys.  But man. I REALLY wanted Dallas in Denver......

[Broncofan]

14 minutes ago, DiehardBronxFan said:

Driving all day yesterday so didn’t get to watch or post.  Was listening on the Radio - was SOOOO stoked when Williams and Goedert fell to us - felt like day 1 with Chubb all over again.  Too good to be true.  Ah well.  

I definitely like this draft,even if I don’t love it.  Elway is doing what we’ve asked him to do.  And even if he isn’t masterfully playing the board, he IS sticking to his Board.  I’ll guarantee you this is NOT the way they expected things to fall.  They were going to trade down, but took Chubb when there due to value.  I seriously doubt they were going to go WR in Rd 2, but Sutton, a guy with a Rd 1 grade that checks all the boxes (great, great guy, BTW), was there and they adjusted.  Felt like he may have gotten a little desperate for RB at the top of the 3rd, but nothing at all wrong with Freeman there.  

So, happy, and glad to see Elway going for guys with production and sticking to value instead of reaching for his guys.  But man. I REALLY wanted Dallas in Denver......

Yeah this is how I feel too.  Dallas Goedert and Oliver / Jackson (flipped a coin @Counselor swayed me lol) were my top picks there.  

Nothing against Sutton he’s an actual player.  It’s just WR was so deep the Goedert or CB Rd 2 and best WR 3.71 and best RB 3.99 result was a better net result IMO.   Who knows though it’s all guesswork - time will tell if that holds up.  

I will say Elway’s ability to adjust to the Big Board has been non existent since 2013 or so.   He actually showed the ability this year on Day 2.   So that’s clear progress.

Now there is one scary alternate thought - Elway was locked into WR Rd2 no matter what.   Despite the WR Day 2 tier being so deep.  And Chark was the guy he thought was 2.40, as Woody Paige reported.  Just that Sutton fell.  In that case with Sutton falling Elway just got lucky it wasn’t Chark.   That’s not so good if that was what happened.  But we won’t ever know.  Since we don’t know let’s stick with “he’s finally adjusting to the Big Board”.    It makes us all happier to see Elway show the ability to adapt to how the Board is falling lol.  

And it’s great to see Elway actually take guys with football talent with good ceilings instead of purely physical tools, insane ceiling and no floor.  After 4.106 - 4.113, he can go back to old Elway node and satisfy his itch.  Really like most Day 3’s it’s a total crapshoot this year after our next 2 picks lol.  

[DiehardBronxFan]

I would also point out, if Elway had drafted this way in Day 2 for the past 5 years, we’d still be battling for Conference Championships.  Hopefully, this isn’t a one-off, and we can start piling a few of these together - hopefully next time with some OL talent mixed in?

[broncos67]

One guy that we should think about drafting today is Ian Thomas, TE, Indiana. As far as TE upside goes in this draft, he's got a TON of it.

If they're looking for a more traditional TE, I'd prefer Conklin at this point. He's well rounded.

[Broncofan]

42 minutes ago, DiehardBronxFan said:

I would also point out, if Elway had drafted this way in Day 2 for the past 5 years, we’d still be battling for Conference Championships.  Hopefully, this isn’t a one-off, and we can start piling a few of these together - hopefully next time with some OL talent mixed in?

If we stop whiffing on Day 2 picks like Carlos Henderson and Langley last year you could argue Conor Williams might have gone 2.40 on Elway’s board, or we'd have already taken a developmental T at 3.99 (both could still turn it around this year but their lack of progress forced the WR/CB need IMO for Elway).   

[Broncofan]

2 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

One guy that we should think about drafting today is Ian Thomas, TE, Indiana. As far as TE upside goes in this draft, he's got a TON of it.

If they're looking for a more traditional TE, I'd prefer Conklin at this point. He's well rounded.

Good call.   I missed him before.  Looking at him and seeing what little film on YT he’s intriguing.  

[elliot878]

Day 3 Guys I like:

DT - RJ McIntosh, Folorunso Fatukasi, Tim Settle

LB - Shaq Griffin, Josey Jewell, Micah Kiser

OT - Tyrell Crosby, Cole Madison, Jamarco Jones, Desmond Harrison

 

[elliot878]

9 hours ago, broncos67 said:

Isaac Yiadom, CB, Boston College is the pick.

Long, rangy boundary corner with strong abilities in press/zone. That could be an intriguing developmental pick. Don't hate it. Not jumping out of my chair, but he's solid.

Gosh, you guys forget my mocks so quickly. 

This is a good pick, he's going to play his rookie year and contribute on special teams.  I knew Elway would be looking for a corner with length after trading Talib.  Yiadom isn't elite anywhere but he's good in all areas of playing the position right now.  He'll need to keep getting better, but he's one I trust will keep working and learning.

Solid pick, right in the range he was projected.

[Broncofan]

6 minutes ago, elliot878 said:

Gosh, you guys forget my mocks so quickly. 

This is a good pick, he's going to play his rookie year and contribute on special teams.  I knew Elway would be looking for a corner with length after trading Talib.  Yiadom isn't elite anywhere but he's good in all areas of playing the position right now.  He'll need to keep getting better, but he's one I trust will keep working and learning.

Solid pick, right in the range he was projected.

With us having the 1.5 pick and so much QB vs. Nelson vs. Chubb vs. Barkley interest, I think we had 20+ mocks this year.   The volume was insane to keep track of.  I could barely keep track of mine lol. 

EDIT:  21 mocks.   LOL.  Insane levels of interest this year.

[elliot878]

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-draft-winners-losers-broncos-gm-john-elway-collected-serious-talent-045003888.html

[thebestever6]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

That was the surprising Combine result with him because he doesn’t show that level of ability to separate on film.   Mostly all related to his catch radius, high pointing and box out abilities.  

Creating separation and route running are his Q’s right now.  Jeffery is really the best comp but Jeffery is faster and more sudden and an even better box-out guy than Sutton.    But that’s the profile that fits best.  

If he can improve his route running maybe it changes I like him. Dt was raw coming out

[Broncofan]

15 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

If he can improve his route running maybe it changes I like him. Dt was raw coming out

Yes, DT was raw - but again, that's a bad comp because DT had even more explosion and YAC ability, and home-run speed.  DT also still has trouble with press coverage.    Sutton has to be able to win vs. press coverage and box-out/50-50 balls to succeed right now.    As he gets older, his route-running and separation will decide if he can fulfill the promise of an Alshon Jeffery (because while Alshon isn't a great route runner, he's been able to create separation as teams respected his size/speed, and his short-area explosion created separation with the cushion teams gave him, or he bodied CB's away on his cuts when they tried to press him).

Jeffery has more home-run speed (at least young Jeffery did), and he's a hair more explosive and wider catch radius, and he can box out CB's with ease (Sutton has to work on that, never needed to do it at SMU) - but cumulatively, Jeffery was clearly higher coming out of college than Sutton is now.  But Alshon Jeffery is the best-case scenario, and that would be a fantastic result (minus the injuries of course).  Of course, that's the ceiling, the floor is a big-bodied guy who gets negated by the bigger & faster CB's in the NFL.  But he's not a no-skills guy, far from it.  Just his profile has risk, given route-running and ability to separate are his biggest Q's - those can be killers to NFL WR success.  One of those 2 has to progress for him to give a winning return on 2.40.    

WR was deep in Rd 2-3, but it was really lacking in elite, sure-fire Rd1 talent.  It just had a lot of talented but 1-or-2key-flaw guys, Sutton's just a different version than the big bodied WR's left because he had college production, and that extra catch radius / high-pointing ability (but those differences are huge).    It's also why the argument to wait on WR until Rd3 had so much merit.  Again, I'm not bagging on Sutton in a vacuum, just trying to present the full picture.  If he was a lock to be Alshon Jeffery NFL version with better health, he'd have gone top 20.  But a WAY better choice than DJ Chark at this stage, that's for sure.

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

My board for 4.6 and 4.13 is:

Tyrell Crosby

Shaq Griffin

Deasean Hamilton

Ian Thomas

Kyle Lauletta

Desmond Harrison

JC Jackson