Official Broncos Forum Draft Thread

[broncos67]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

Yeah, if Henderson's future is just a gadget guy...damn, wasted Rd3 pick.  Henderson is fast - but Tyreke Hill is olympic-level fast.   Terrible reach if that's our goal.  Spend a 3.70's pick on a Godwin or Golladay, Elway.  Oh well, maybe he's learning, this draft so far is nothing like last year in player-types.  

Agree on Samuels, I actually think he might be better to target than Thomas, with Butt, we may want a more versatile guy than straight TE).  

That's fair. Ian Thomas has very legit upside though. He was woefully underutilized at Indiana given their offense (using two QBs, lots of bizarre plays) and a focus on Simmie Cobbs.

[Broncofan]

3 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

JaMarco Jones is another guy that I believe we visited with who feels like a projectable pick. The thing about Crosby is that he has OG/OT capability so if he fails at one, he may succeed at the other. I imagine that goes into consideration given the versatility we've tried to preach with OL picks.

Yeah, Jones is a decent call, it's on my draft board.   I think Crosby is falling because ppl see him as RT-only.  For us, being RT-only who can play G would be a good thing.   I still want Harrison most, but I can't be upset if we went Crosby.

I posted that Day 3 big board elsewhere on FF Draft, not here.  LOL...too many open windows.

[Broncofan]

OK, found it, might as well put my board before Day 3 starts, so I won't be accused of using hindsight for 4.106 & 4.113 lol.

So my take....with a tidbit on how DEN might approach this with 4.106, 4.113, 5.149 and 5.160 left.  Obviously, 5.149 & 5.160 will change,  depending on how the Board shakes out.  Here goes for the start of Round 4....

OVERALL - DIFFERENCE-MAKERS LEFT

1.  DT Maurice Hurst - medically speaking, we don't have all the info.  But if what's said is true, and he's had an arrhythmia and been cleared - he should not be falling this far.   If he's cleared, he's in a normal rhythm.   The option to treat would normally be an ablation, which can fix the problem if it keeps re-occurring - and if it's not he doesn't need anything.   If he's in a normal rhythm, he doesn't need blood thinners (which yes, are a career-killer, obviously).    He should go soon.   Unless there's another issue, this is mind-boggling, borderline top-25 to top-30 talent IMO.  Even though we have no need for him, wait long enough, and hell, we should take him, watch him flourish, and profit later when we either save $, or get a great trade return over the Day 3 investment.

2. WR Antonio Callaway - we all know why he hasn't gone yet.   Round 5+ is still my updated guess. 

3.  T Tyrell Crosby - like Hurst, surprised he's lasted this long.  I know he's likely limited to RT, but still.   Few guys with his success, and his power-friendly profile.   I hope DEN is looking at him at 4.106 or 4.113.

4.  T Desmond Harrison - like Callaway, it's about drugs.   Unlike Callaway, Harrison has stayed out of trouble after his TEX issues.   For that reason alone, I'm most hopeful DEN looks at him as the 1st T target.    One of the few guys who can be a true LT (needs time of course at this stage).

5.  DE Josh Sweat - literally no one else with his upside left at DE.  His knee must be a huge flag to fall this far.  Can't see it falling past Rd 4, but who knows what the medicals are showing.

6.  NT Tim Settle - I really am surprised that LAC didn't target him, I got why KC went with Nnadi over him, but I really thought Settle would be the next run-stuffing DT to go.   I expect he won't last long to some other team using a 3-4 that's looking for cheap run D upgrades.  If he is somehow still around Rd5, we should think about getting our 2019 NT, as Peko is done with us, and at his age/mileage, it's been a pleasant surprise - but no more years, please.

OK, after that, it's less about talent differences, and more about who's left in the remaining tiers before positions drop off again.  Here goes:

 

POSITIONAL TIERS LEFT

QB - Kyle Lauletta & Mike White - should go soon.  Obviously a lot can happen, but right now I prefer both to likely whoever is 4th/5th overall QB next year.   Get them a year early, and sit out the 2019 class if it's not one of the guys who rises (realizing it's going to cost more for even higher risk than this year IMO).   As DEN passed on QB, but Keenum is only signed for 2 years, and Chad Kelly is no lock to develop (and don't get me started on Paxton Lynch) could see early interest here.  

RB -   John Kelly & Mark Walton - probably the last RB's I'd feel comfortable penciling as a possible starter (Chase Edmonds! Forgot him).   Kelly is NOT Kamara V2, but I do like his overall game - he's my choice for 3.99 in the alternate GM game.   Both are modern-era value RB's.   Ballage's tape is just so awful, hard to accept given his tools, so can't put him here.   DEN just went Freeman, don't expect any action here.

WR - ESB/Simmie Cobb/Auden Tate - all have flaws, all have potential.  ESB probably has the most, but concerns on the ability to separate and beat NFL-level talent exist with all of them.   Cannot put Lazard in, unlike Callaway, his talent isn't that special, and his character issues are almost as bad.  Pass.   Doubt DEN goes again here (unless it's a Rd5 gamble on Callaway). 

TE - Jaylen Samuels/gap/Durham Smythe - ugh.  Unlike last year, the dropoff comes quickly here.    Could see a DEN Rd5 pick here.  But unlike last year's legendary class, there is no Jake Butt v2 sitting here for us.   

T - already covered the top guys.  OSU Jamarco Jones deserves mention, although I prefer Harrison & Crosby far more than Jones.  Should be a DEN Rd4 priority.

ILB - Shaquem Griffin / Josey Jewell - the great story with Griffin, who can fly and cover guys well, to the classic instincts-but-average-tools who plays up because of his supreme game IQ.   The other Rd4 priority for DEN (Elway's on record to address ILB in draft).

Too tired to do the rest, but that's a good start.    I know I'm missing guys, so have at it lol.

 

Looking at the above, clear targets for DEN are T with Crosby/Harrison early in 4.106.   I expect Elway will address ILB as he's stated, so Griffin/Jewell could go next at 4.113.   I do think if no one has taken him, Callaway's talent becomes arguable for Rd5 - I bet someone else thinks likewise, though, which in a lot of ways, would be a relief.   

But, if Elway is thinking QB, then I think Lauletta at 4.106 or 4.113 has to be done - and then I suspect Elway has to choose what need he fills at Rd4 after Lauletta goes.   So if Elway does want a QB, here's where I'd trade both 5.149 and 5.160 and move up as much as possible (likely 4.120+ range), and get all 3 of Lauletta, ILB & developmental T - and call it a day.  If we aren't married to QB, then no need to move up yet, and we stick with developmental T and ILB for 4.106/4.113, and then we still have 5.149 & 5.160.   If that's the case, I expect TE, and a insane-tool, low-football skill player to be selected, because Elway's a sucker for those guys (and in Rd 5+ nothing wrong with that, it's all a crapshoot anyways).

[Broncofan]

10 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

That's fair. Ian Thomas has very legit upside though. He was woefully underutilized at Indiana given their offense (using two QBs, lots of bizarre plays) and a focus on Simmie Cobbs.

I actually like Cobbs, as Rd5+ flyer.   Just such a weird year, with ESB/Cobbs/Tate, there are similar-profile guys just sitting there Day 3, so they're all falling back. 

That IND team was awful though.  Which makes the players' success more projectible, they were doing it all on their own.

Which leads to a totally unrelated point - find a good player on a bad Big 10 team, and upgrade them.  Tevin Coleman, Dan Feeney best examples I can think of.  Thomas & Cobbs could be decent Day 3 values for sure. 

Given we only have Butt, TBH I'd be fine with either Thomas or Samuels.  I kinda share @DiehardBronxFan's wistfulness at not going Goedert 2.40.  I know we'd be getting a redshirt year, and then we'd have no CB under that scenario (I'd have still popped WR 3.71 so Gallup, and RB 3.99, so Kelly) right now.   But a difference-making TE is such a weapon.   I'm afraid Goedert will become the next Kelce/Ertz, even though Ertz is still there in PHI and a stud, Pederson will have no trouble getting Goedert in there once he's ready (might need 2 years, most TE's do, the great ones still take 1+).

[thebestever6]

Our tes are scaring me butt mau never come back normal or can get injured.

[broncos67]

My overall board (or at least players I think we should target at each position) is below (and in order)

QB- Kyle Lauletta, Luke Falk, Mike White

RB- Nyheim Hines, John Kelly, Ito Smith, Chase Edmunds

WR- Auden Tate, Marcell Ateman, Jaleel Scott, Deon Cain, Antonio Callaway, Daurice Fountain

TE- Jaylen Samuels, Ian Thomas, Tyler Conklin, Troy Fumagalli

OL- Tyrell Crosby, Desmond Harrison, Jamarco Jones, Brett Toth

DL- Maurice Hurst (even if not a great fit here), Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, Josh Sweat, DaShawn Hand, Duke Ejiofor, Tim Settle Dorrance Armstrong

ILB- Josey Jewell, Micah Kiser, Jack Cichy

OLB- Shaqueem Griffin, Skai Moore, Marquis Haynes

CB- JC Jackson, Anthony Averett, Parry Nickerson, Brandon Facyson

S- Armani Watts, Tony Allen, Kyzir White, Quin Blanding, Dane Cruikshank

 

If we land even two of these guys, I'm geeked.

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

17 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

I think Henderson's long term career arc is closer to a Tyreek Hill type of player more than a slot corner. I think Henderson is more or less a guy you run certain plays for knowing his strengths, but he's not on the field every play. I argued last year he wasn't worth an R3, but I do think that's how the team would prefer to use him all things equal. 

This is where the NFL is going to a certain degree, and a reason I'd like to see us take Jaylen Samuels. Having players that are chess pieces on either side of the ball are great ideas. We now have that with Cravens. We could add someone like Samuels who I think comps relatively favorably to a hybrid Burkhead/Delanie Walker type of player.

My take on C-Henderson is the same. I never envisioned him as a consistent slot guy, but as a weapon you design 6-10 touches a game for and who acts as a decoy on another 5-10 plays. Deasean is a real slot who, with Butt, can help us control the middle of the field, and improve out 3rd Down/Red Zone efficiency.

[Broncofan]

3 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

Our tes are scaring me butt mau never come back normal or can get injured.

That was the main argument to go Goedert (or for @BroncosFan2010, Gesicki) at 2.40. 

Butt could be back to his pre-ACL form.  Most players do...when it's their 1st ACL.  Problem is with a 2nd ACL, the recovery rates are not quite as good.  1st ACL, they are almost always 100 percent after 18 months (playing at 11-12 months, but not 100 percent full explosiveness at 18 months).   2nd ACL, they are usually playing, but 90 percent or less can be seen.  And for a guy like Butt, that's a killer.   We'll just have to hold our breath.  The good news is that since the injury happened with surgery in January 2017 - Butt will be at his new peak baseline when he starts 2018.  What sucks is when you get hurt during the season - you can return the next season, but you don't have full explosion back for 18 months - so you miss 1 season, and you aren't the same for another.  After 18 months, though, it's full systems go and expecting a return to pre-injury level is the norm - if it's your 1st.  For Butt, given it's his 2nd ACL, we just have to wait and see.

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

My take on C-Henderson is the same. I never envisioned him as a consistent slot guy, but as a weapon you design 6-10 touches a game for and who acts as a decoy on another 5-10 plays. Deasean is a real slot who, with Butt, can help us control the middle of the field, and improve out 3rd Down/Red Zone efficiency.

Man, then the Henderson pick is almost certainly a bust outcome-wise, if that's our best-case scenario.   Gadget guy for 3.82?  SMH.   Oh well, at least Elway's MO in who he's targeting is way better this year.

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

@broncos67 I forgot about Cichy. Another guy is target in the 5th if Jewell is gone

[Broncofan]

So...say Maurice Hurst is there at 4.113.  We don't need him, but literally a top 30 talent.   I'm telling you, the medical issue, if it's as advertised (arrhythmia, likely SVT/atrial fibrillation, medically cleared, so likely back in normal rhythm), is one where a normal life is the expectation, and even if you want to be cold, 4+ years of football seems like no flags.

I'd do it in a heartbeat (PUN intended), because much La'el Collins gave an insane return after falling for the murder of his ex-GF (cleared, obv - but remember he told teams pick him by Rd3 or he sits out the year and re-enters the next year's draft), his return would have been far better than a late 3rd.  Same deal here.

[Broncofan]

BTW, the story on Guice's fall gets more interesting - apparently, there's an investigation that's potentially "damaging/embarrassing" to Guice once it comes out.  

So, the unconfirmed speculation is not just that Guice lied about the questions asked to him at the Combine, or the diva attitude, but 2 other stories - one, that Guice got involved in a fight...during the PHI interview & visit (LOOOOOOOL).    The other?  That the story where he tweeted about pulling a woman from a burning car - fabricated.   Ay caramba if true.

Just heard it on radio, but it's not confirmed.  But if that's the case, that's 2x he's caught lying - I can see why teams that don't love him dropped him off the board - and why the team that loved him the most, WAS, traded back, then took him 2.59. 

If none of the smoke is real, this could be a great value, character-flag guys who figure it out are great boom returns when they do.   But as we know the WAS FO isn't smart enough to pull enough this kind of Machiavellian scheme, and every other NFL team walked away for 58 picks, hard not to see more than smoke.

[AnAngryAmerican]

I'm heading out here in a few minutes to play the new TPC Colorado in Berthoud. There are benefits to being the sports editor of a local paper . I will be trying to keep up on the draft with my phone. Truthfully, I really, really, really like what we've done so far. There are a few picks here or there I might have gone another way, but really as an armchair GM I am not going to complain. People who know a lot more about this stuff than I do are giving Elway almost unanimous high praise. 

Let's hope today we can get an ILB and some more weapons on offense. I also wouldn't mind one bit taking Kyle Lauletta, he's my favorite QB left on the board. 

[broncos67]

3 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

I'm heading out here in a few minutes to play the new TPC Colorado in Berthoud. There are benefits to being the sports editor of a local paper . I will be trying to keep up on the draft with my phone. Truthfully, I really, really, really like what we've done so far. There are a few picks here or there I might have gone another way, but really as an armchair GM I am not going to complain. People who know a lot more about this stuff than I do are giving Elway almost unanimous high praise. 

Let's hope today we can get an ILB and some more weapons on offense. I also wouldn't mind one bit taking Kyle Lauletta, he's my favorite QB left on the board. 

Let me know how that TPC course is. My buddy is going to Colorado in a few months for a bachelor party and he is likely playing there.

[AnAngryAmerican]

9 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

Let me know how that TPC course is. My buddy is going to Colorado in a few months for a bachelor party and he is likely playing there.

It opens to the public in August. Not sure when he's coming out, it's semi-private. I'll put a ton pictures on Facebook for you to show him.