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1(3). Sam Darnold, QB, Southern California


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37 minutes ago, NJerseypaint said:

Anyone else feel like people are constantly forgetting that Darnold just turned 21. I see his name pop-up all over this forum as a will-be bust because of his inconsistent play, especially when compared to Mayfield, but shouldn't inconsistent play be expected when he's among the youngest in the NFL?

People are throwing the word bust out there? They must not be watching the games. He’s definitely been up and down though. But that’s a short sided projection. He’s more raw than Mayfield, because he hasn’t played QB as long. I sort of see the both of them peaking at around the same level. With Mayfield being better the first two years or so. I was a Mayfield fan pre draft. A lot of Jets fan didn’t want him; so, I’m a lot higher on him than most.

There were a lot of people saying Wentz was going to bust after his first year. And Philly fans were saying the opposite. They said if you watch the games, you can see the upside of Wentz. Philly fans were right.  I think Darnold will have a similar trajectory but it might take 2 years for him to spike as oppose to Wentz’ one year.

After 5 games, Darnold’s teammates are still really high on him. They probably are the best to judge since they are playing with him.

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46 minutes ago, NJerseypaint said:

Anyone else feel like people are constantly forgetting that Darnold just turned 21. I see his name pop-up all over this forum as a will-be bust because of his inconsistent play, especially when compared to Mayfield, but shouldn't inconsistent play be expected when he's among the youngest in the NFL?

The other thing to note, is that people generally project the Jets with a negative bias. We were the consensus worse team the last two offseason. It’s hard for people to see good things happening to the Jets. Our history has something to do with it. Plus being in NY. 

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1 hour ago, Bobby816 said:

I see a lot of Romo in his game. I think the more he gets comfortable... the more he will improvise. Hopefully he can win big games unlike a Romo though

Now I see Eli Manning, but you could be right as his career moves on, because he can run.

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I want to see him gain confidence and for things to slow down for him. Early on you could tell her was rushing a bit. A lot of over throws and such. Last week he looked a lot better. I’m not going to harp on his stats bc he’s a rookie. I just want to see him get better each week. The OLine looks to be gelling a bit more as well as his timing with his WRs. The strong run game can only help him.

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The key to Darnold, success is having a TE who could make plays on third down to keep drives going. I won't believe we have one till I see it. That is the missing piece on the offensive. And please don't tell we have guys on the roster who can do that job seeing is believing.

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17 hours ago, doumeyer said:

The key to Darnold, success is having a TE who could make plays on third down to keep drives going. I won't believe we have one till I see it. That is the missing piece on the offensive. And please don't tell we have guys on the roster who can do that job seeing is believing.

I mostly agree. We have 3 out of the 5 skills positions figured out. Deep threat (Anderson), Slot (Enunwa), RB (Crowell). We need someone to emerge opposite of Anderson and someone to emerge as the TE to stretch the deep middle. Herndon looks like he can be that all round TE that you can use underneath. Kearse is more of a number 4 veteran presence guy. I don't have faith Pryor is the answer opposite of Anderson. I do have some faith Leggett can be that deep middle threat. But he has yet to show anything. If he can develop into a decent deep middle threat, it will go a long way for this offense.

But as it stands, this offense needs work to be a good/stable offense in the long-term. 2 or 3 OL and 1 or 2 offensive weapons. 

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2 hours ago, Dr.O said:

I’m a lil against it as I really want us to address OT and it being a far bigger need imo but I could see us going N’Keal Harry or DK Metcalf early to round up our WR Core.

I wouldn’t mind that at all if we were drafting mid Round 1. Also depends on what we do in FA. But I’m always for giving our hopefully franchise QB a legit weapon to grow with. 

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This is the game I wanted, a shootout, and Darnold, held up great every time the Colts scored Darnold, drove down field for a Jet score. And when was the last time you saw a Jets TE catch a pass and run 32 yards for a TD, well yesterday Chris Herndon did it. I know the Colts were decimated with injuries, but a win is a win.

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Took a look at defensive pass dvoa and darnolds total QBR and Pass QBR. I think the Total QBR by football outsiders has captured well Darnolds play so far. They suggest he had two excellent games (Det and Ind), one good game (Den) and 3 bad games (CLE, MIA, and Jax). I thought he played ok against Miami and was let down by his receivers but they are close to accurate.

So far the Jets have played the following teams (I’m putting their passing defense rank based on dvoa: Det (29), Mia (5), CLE (2), Jax (3), Den (18), Ind (17). On average that is a ranking of 12. So he has on average faced an average pass defense.

If you look at his passing QBR, he is ranked 18th in the league. Still early but on average he has been about average against against an average strength pass defense. If that makes any sense. Lots of volatility in there though.

What is surprising to me is that he is ranked 32nd in run. I don’t disagree with the ranking. What surprises me is that I expected him to be more productive gaining rushing yards when plays breakdown. It’s not all bad, he extends plays well and is mostly looking to pass. Russell Wilson is ranked last in the run category. So I’m wondering if the pass ranking is the more meaningful stat.

Darnold is trending up. The next two games should allow us to see how much he has grown. We are facing Minny and then the number 1 ranked pass defense in Chicago.

Can’t make many conclusions after 6 games. The one thing we can conclude is that the Jets absolutely made the right decision in starting Darnold. The moment has not been too big for him, the OL has not gotten him killed, and he is growing each game.

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26 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

He’s showing growth and that’s what this season is about for him. 

Absolutely, that is what this year is all about. Darnold , process this year is more important than winning, if we win a game that is great. So far the first thing in his progress this year is the speed of the NFL game has not effective him at all. But I must say winning two games in a row felt great.

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