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2018 Ravens 1st Round Draft Pick (#25) - Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina


drd23

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1 hour ago, berlin calling said:

some kind of moneyball analytics going on here now?

Not sure I'd call it "moneyball analytics".  Its pretty much an unassailable fact that more picks = better chance of finding a good player

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36 minutes ago, drd23 said:

I'd love to see the proof of this and the theory for the reason why.

I'd think it's probably because its not a position that gets drafted in the first round all that much, and therefore only the elite prospects get selected there, whereas because WRs get drafted in the 1st round more, you are more likely to get flawed prospects drafted highly anyway (which comes with a higher chance of not succeeding) 

Think about all the shapes and sizes first round WRs can come in, compared to TEs who rarely deviate from the measurable script. I guess evaluators have a good idea of who can become a good TE in the league and grab them early. Makes sense. There's a bigger difference between Julio, Green, and Hopkins, then Gronkowski, Kelce, and Ertz. You don't see many bucks in the trend. From last years 1st round, Howard, Njouku, and Engram all have closer profiles to each other than Davis, Williams, and Ross do.

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7 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

So removing defense from the equation and the pick isn't so bad. It’s only as bad because of losing out on Derwin James.

No. I think it's a bad pick because Hurst won't do much/make a significant impact on the offense. Regardless of who the Ravens lost out on. This is all about Hayden. 

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4 hours ago, coordinator0 said:

No. I think it's a bad pick because Hurst won't do much/make a significant impact on the offense. Regardless of who the Ravens lost out on. This is all about Hayden. 

That’s fair.

So let me ask you this then, what milestone/s would Hurst need to accomplish, in your opinion, for this to be a good pick?

- A probowl

- Multiple Probowls

- 800 yd receiving season

- 1000 yd receiving season

Anything in particular?

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At least one legitimate pro bowl to be considered a good pick, and at least 3 seasons of >500yds receiving (18 TEs did this last year) to not be a flat out bust

 

(I say legitimate as I don't mean someone getting the designation because they were 3rd alternate and everyone else before them had an excuse not to participate)

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If Hurst isn't ready to step onto the field in week 1 and contribute, then I think he's a bad pick. Yes, TEs can take a while to develop in the NFL, but he doesn't have that long. Travis Kelce has four seasons over 800 yards receiving, two of them 1000 yards plus, and he's only three years older than Hurst. Zach Ertz is two years older, and already has three 800 yard seasons.

And Hurst is a first round pick, to boot. The guys he compares to were mostly 2nd to 4th rounders.

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Just now, Mancunian Raven said:

If Hurst isn't ready to step onto the field in week 1 and contribute, then I think he's a bad pick. Yes, TEs can take a while to develop in the NFL, but he doesn't have that long. Travis Kelce has four seasons over 800 yards receiving, two of them 1000 yards plus, and he's only three years older than Hurst. Zach Ertz is two years older, and already has three 800 yard seasons.

And Hurst is a first round pick, to boot. The guys he compares to were mostly 2nd to 4th rounders.

yep, given his age he should be ready to come in and contribute day 1. If we have to "develop" this guy who is already 25 years old, it's going to be massively disappointing.

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2 hours ago, Mancunian Raven said:

If Hurst isn't ready to step onto the field in week 1 and contribute, then I think he's a bad pick. Yes, TEs can take a while to develop in the NFL, but he doesn't have that long. Travis Kelce has four seasons over 800 yards receiving, two of them 1000 yards plus, and he's only three years older than Hurst. Zach Ertz is two years older, and already has three 800 yard seasons.

And Hurst is a first round pick, to boot. The guys he compares to were mostly 2nd to 4th rounders.

What if he doesn't start until week 3, but then takes the job and never looks back?

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6 hours ago, Mancunian Raven said:

I don't think that extra two weeks will take him from "not ready to step onto the field" to starting TE.

Quite easily could. This is football. An injury could easily derail his training camp making it difficult for Harbaugh to give him the “start” over someone that was able to show more in training camp. Maybe Hurst sees tight end #2 duties as a backup, dominates in game, takes the #1 spot, and then never looks back. Or perhaps the starter (let’s call him Nick Boyle) goes down with injury (knowing our luck on that front  this is quite possible. Many variables that could come into play.

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10 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

That’s fair.

So let me ask you this then, what milestone/s would Hurst need to accomplish, in your opinion, for this to be a good pick?

- A probowl

- Multiple Probowls

- 800 yd receiving season

- 1000 yd receiving season

Anything in particular?

Be a real threat in the passing game. An actual weapon making an impact deserving of first round draft status. Measuring in yards, and to a lesser extent touchdowns, isn't my be-all end-all. Racking up the late-career Pitta yards/receptions isn't going to do it. Especially if it comes via the Flacco Laser-Lock System™. You can tell when a guy is a legit playmaker that has defenses accounting for him, even if the yards and catches don't quite add up to elite at the end of the day.

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What kind of career would make this a good draft pick is an interesting question to ask. There really aren't that many clear difference making tight ends. Delanie Walker and Zach Ertz type careers would be clear strong wins with the 25th pick, but I can't think of the next guy down who would be worth a first. 

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3 minutes ago, wackywabbit said:

What kind of career would make this a good draft pick is an interesting question to ask. There really aren't that many clear difference making tight ends. Delanie Walker and Zach Ertz type careers would be clear strong wins with the 25th pick, but I can't think of the next guy down who would be worth a first. 

Eh, I'm interested in impact. I want to see big key plays that contribute to Super Bowls. Bernard Pierce was worth his selection because he played a valuable role in getting us a ring, even if he flamed out rather quickly in the league. All that matters is winning rings. If Hurst goes crazy in the playoffs this year and makes big play after big play on route to a ring, then the pick was worth it.

I could care less if he carves out some defining role in the league, it seems like we'll just never have those players on offense. I want to see impact when it matters, and more purple birds on jewelry.

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8 hours ago, berlin calling said:

i just want to display his sure hands as that was the most prolific thing he got going for him i suppose.

if he gets the dropsies with the Ravens you know he's just another failed Ozzie pick at TE

You say this like it's a "thing."

You have Maxx Williams in the second, but then his only first round TE pick was Todd Heap which was an indisputable success.

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