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2018 Ravens 1st Round Draft Pick (#25) - Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina

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19 hours ago, Mancunian Raven said:

I don't think that extra two weeks will take him from "not ready to step onto the field" to starting TE.

I ask because it just seemed like a seemingly arbitrary and unnecessarily rigid criteria for determining success/failure.

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not talking about 1st round picks only. Dickson, Gillmore, do you consider them hits? both drafted 3rd round.

i give a pass on Boyle as he was a 5th round pick but other than that... MEH

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1 hour ago, berlin calling said:

not talking about 1st round picks only. Dickson, Gillmore, do you consider them hits? both drafted 3rd round.

i give a pass on Boyle as he was a 5th round pick but other than that... MEH

Maxx Williams is an injury bust. He was drafted as a 20 year old and developing. His injury is one we’ve never seen someone have and come back from in the NFL. Ozzie can’t help that. Similar to Pitta dislocating his hips.

Ed Dickson was drafted the same year as Dennis Pitta. We hit on Pitta a round later, that’s a 50% success rate on the position there, which is great.

Gillmore was one of our best blocking tight ends in Ravens history. He was also a favor to then offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak. He was having a breakout campaign when the injuries began to pile up. There is a difference between a talent bust and an injury bust.

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Yeah both Williams' and Gillmore's careers have been derailed by injuries. It's too simple to say they just busted.

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1 hour ago, coordinator0 said:

Yeah both Williams' and Gillmore's careers have been derailed by injuries. It's too simple to say they just busted.

Yup. I think the only instance where we would have to consider an injury bust as something to pin on the GM is if that player had a known injury history or problem before we drafted them.

Kind of like had Sergio Kindle not fallen down those steps and instead busted because his knee gave out instead. Or if Josh Rosen ends up out of the league in 3 years because of concussions than the onus is on the GM for taking that risk.

Otherwise, injuries are an unfortunate part of the game that can’t be predicted much more (playing style) for one player anymore than another.

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On 4/26/2018 at 11:47 PM, coordinator0 said:

It's not quite an ability so much as it is the team just putting him in those spots. Hurst isn't a good athlete. He can't be moved all over the field creating mismatches... generic defenders will do fine on him. Sure, his hands are good, but that's not a particularly special trait to bank on. Especially in the first round. And it's not like Hayden is ready to roll now. Most tight ends need to develop to make an impact in the NFL, and even more so for one that's supposedly going to fill all these roles. Hurst is no exception to this and might actually be a bit further behind than your typical prospect. Then there's the elephant in the room:

Yeah, I have no hopes for this pick. He's just going to be in the rotation with Boyle and Williams for two or three years and that's that. Whatever. 

I like the Andrews pick better

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Decided to take a look.

Stats from last year's rookie TE class,

Rk Player Team Pos Rec Yds Avg Yds/G Lng TD 20+ 40+ 1st 1st% FUM
1 Evan Engram NYG TE 64 722 11.3 48.1 35 6 11 0 37 57.8 0
2 George Kittle SF TE 43 515 12.0 34.3 44 2 8 1 22 51.2 0
3 David Njoku CLE TE 32 386 12.1 24.1 34 4 8 0 17 53.1 0
4 O.J. Howard TB TE 26 432 16.6 30.9 58T 6 9 1 19 73.1 3
5 Jonnu Smith TEN TE 18 157 8.7 9.8 32T 2 2 0 5 27.8 0
6 Gerald Everett LA TE 16 244 15.3 15.2 69 2 4 2 7 43.8 1
7 Ricky Seals-Jones ARI TE 12 201 16.8 20.1 29T 3 5 0 10 83.3 0
7 Adam Shaheen CHI TE 12 127 10.6 9.8 31 3 2 0 8 66.7 0

and the Top 5 2015 class TEs statistically, of which we still have two.

Rk Player Team Pos Rec Yds Avg Yds/G Lng TD 20+ 40+ 1st 1st% FUM
1 Will Tye NYG TE 42 464 11.0 35.7 45 3 5 1 23 54.8 1
2 Maxx Williams BAL TE 32 268 8.4 19.1 28 1 2 0 16 50.0 1
3 Clive Walford OAK TE 28 329 11.8 20.6 33 3 5 0 20 71.4 0
4 Nick Boyle BAL TE 18 153 8.5 13.9 25 0 1 0 10 55.6 0
5 Blake Bell SF TE 15 186 12.4 13.3 48 0 3 1 5 33.3

0

Here is 2016's leader and only notable, as well as a good testing comp for Hurst, Hunter Henry.

Rk Player Team Pos Rec Yds Avg Yds/G Lng TD 20+ 40+ 1st 1st% FUM
1 Hunter Henry SD TE 36 478 13.3 31.9 59 8 7 1 30 83.3 1

I'll be very interested to see where Hurst's own statistics end up, projections are all over the place for him.  He's one of the more polarizing rookies we've drafted, but it's good to have everyone signed and that chapter closed.

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500yds would be great, considering they also drafted Andrews who should get his fair share of targets as he probably won't be blocking often.

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1 hour ago, berlin calling said:

500yds would be great, considering they also drafted Andrews who should get his fair share of targets as he probably won't be blocking often.

500 yards isn't gonna happen when he's splitting reps with Andrews and we aren't a pass happy offense in the first place. Hurst isn't gonna be a guy that gets YAC either so for me I'll mostly be looking at catch/drop rates and 1st downs.

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can't see Flacco changing his habits thus his TEs will probably be his main targets. there is a fair chance Brown will be on IR sooner or later, Crabtree rarely ended a season with 1k yards so who else is going help Joe get to 3k? Snead won't touch that mark. Hurst could be his Pitta if he develops enough chemistry during camp to trust him.

anyway, much too early to speculate on performance but i'll say 800yds between Hurst and Andrews is not out of question.

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I'd be happy enough if he managed to match Njoku's stat line from last year

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22 hours ago, wackywabbit said:

last year's rookie TE class was very unusually productive

Guys that get on the field to only catch the football have an easier path to production right out of the gate.

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Posted (edited)

I don’t think Mark Andrews is going to see much playing time. I think we see much more of Nick Boyle as a veteran presence to Hurst’s rookie exuberance. I think he splits targets with Hurst moreso than Andrews, who I see as more of a 10 recs, 100 yds. Boyle as 25 refs 250 yds. And Hurst as more of a 65 recs 650 yds guy.

Edited by diamondbull424

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